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PDF - Wiley Online Library
PDF - Wiley Online Library

... profoundly affect key physical and biological processes through nonlinear dynamics [Adrian et al., 2009]. The diverse array of lake sizes and shapes on earth suggests that patterns of lake warming should be highly variable, both in space and time. Key drivers of surface water temperature include abs ...
Atmospheric Circulations Do Not Explain the Temperature
Atmospheric Circulations Do Not Explain the Temperature

... processes have been identified and filtered out, leaving behind a “pure” record of climatic change. But several studies have shown a correlation between the spatial pattern of warming trends in climatic data products and the spatial pattern of industrialization, indicating that local non-climatic ef ...
Development of new parametrisations and sub - HiGEM
Development of new parametrisations and sub - HiGEM

... many greenhouse gases. The chemistry is known to be highly non-linear so that a crucial aspect (increasingly recognised as being a vital part of the research strategy) is the issue of importance of spatial scales from the local, to the regional, to the continental and global. Innovative software sol ...
EOS CAR LA 2011 - Climate Action Reserve
EOS CAR LA 2011 - Climate Action Reserve

... Remaining ODS “banks” = Significant Climate Threat ...
4_4_Human_health_revised_checked - Eionet Forum
4_4_Human_health_revised_checked - Eionet Forum

... surges or coastal flooding (Below et al., 2009). The DFO includes only floods that appear to be ‘large’, based on a significant damage to structures or agriculture, long reported intervals (decades) since the last similar event, and/or fatalities; it is not specifically defined what constitutes a fl ...
Sustainability a cross-curriculum priority ACARA
Sustainability a cross-curriculum priority ACARA

... about their own place and building a connection with it contributes to their sense of identity and belonging and an understanding of why and how they should look after places. They start to explore their feelings about places by talking about their own special places, and what makes them special. Th ...
File
File

... climate in Central America with an emphasis on El Salvador, investigate the potential role of climate change in the area, and use the available data to quantify the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in El Salvador. Central America, as defined by the United Nations geo scheme, includes t ...
1/8 An experimental model to understand
1/8 An experimental model to understand

... container, not forgetting that the set-up represents the Earth and sun etc, thus they must find realistic solutions (for example, switching the lamp off to reduce the temperature would be the same as extinguishing the sun, which is not possible). 3. If you wish, set a more precise challenge to the p ...
Detectability of Anthropogenic Changes in Annual Temperature and
Detectability of Anthropogenic Changes in Annual Temperature and

... us identify indices of climate change that permit both early and robust detection of changes in climate extremes. Ideally, a large number of models need to be used to get a complete estimate of model uncertainty. While this is beyond the scope of the present paper, a project to collect daily data fr ...
36 Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile River Conflict: The Case
36 Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile River Conflict: The Case

... renewable water resources of the country (FAO 2010). From the natural Nile flow measured as 84 km3/yr at Aswan Egypt has an allowance of 55.5 km3/yr, based on the 1959 agreement with Sudan. Renewable groundwater makes up another 1.3 km3/yr. With a current water availability of 702.8 m3/capita/year ( ...
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training

... (currently, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group, January 2001). The vertical change predicted by the current model between the years of 2000 and 2100 is 0.38 m. A multiplier of 100, based on the Bruun Rule shall be used and gives a value for 38 m for sandy shores. For other shore t ...
Annual Report 2016 - National Center for Science Education
Annual Report 2016 - National Center for Science Education

... in fun, accessible, hands-on evolution and climate change activities during community events. The program is having a measurable impact: in one community where the local club held six activities, science literacy rose 20%. That’s something to be excited about! But all is not rosy. These are troublin ...
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Policy Document
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Policy Document

... and adapt to the effects of climate change”. Since Inari, Senior Arctic Officials (SAOs) and representatives of the Permanent Participants have met with climate experts in Svalbard, Nuuk and The Hague to discuss the scientific findings of the ACIA and to further the dialogue among the Arctic states ...
OPEN CLIMATE LETTER TO UN SECRETARY
OPEN CLIMATE LETTER TO UN SECRETARY

... On November 9 this year you told the General Assembly: “Extreme weather due to climate change is the new normal … Our challenge remains, clear and urgent: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to strengthen adaptation to … even larger climate shocks … and to reach a legally binding climate agreement b ...
Climate Risk Assessment for Water Resources
Climate Risk Assessment for Water Resources

... projected precipitation and temperature changes; it does not take into account other sources of risk such as vulnerability of specific sectors and future socio-economic changes, nor does it account for changes in the variability of runoff within the year. As mentioned previously, we used an ensemble ...
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

... agriculture: Planting and harvest dates (and associated climatic events such as day of last frost) have been well recorded, dating back hundreds of years for some crops. But the plethora of records also stems from the strong sociological significance of the change of the seasons, particularly in high ...
How are salmon changing in response to climate change?
How are salmon changing in response to climate change?

2008 4 7 Kristen Miller Report
2008 4 7 Kristen Miller Report

... Change Declaration, a voluntary agreement to work towards climate change mitigation and adaptation, requiring significant commitments of councils to act in this area. Local Authorities will now be progressing this work under the new Single Outcome Agreements between the Scottish Government and counc ...
chapt16_lecture-Fall
chapt16_lecture-Fall

...  This document, known as the Montreal Protocol, was ratified by Congress in 1988.  As a result, emissions dropped 87% from their peak in 1988. ...
Impacts, Adaptations and Uncertainty in the face of Anthropogenic
Impacts, Adaptations and Uncertainty in the face of Anthropogenic

... example of uncertainty. The 1998 Ice storm that hit eastern Canada clearly demonstrated that extreme climate events in the boreal can damage trees comparably to that of the most destructive windstorms and hurricanes recorded anywhere. Wind related events may also have consequences for other forest d ...
Paris Agreement in practice: what next for Africa and developing
Paris Agreement in practice: what next for Africa and developing

... needed to establish a beneficial connection among various public policy objectives. Climate resilient entrepreneurship and innovation, with a robust ecosystem of private, public and civil society collaboration, will also be needed. In light of these outcomes, a number of recommendations were formula ...
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Secondary Activities: A
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Secondary Activities: A

... quality (skill and productivity) are essential. Any factor that affects these two characteristics of labour (quantity and quality) affects production and profitability of the industry. To be productive a labour should be healthy enough both mentally and physically. Any impact on labour health (morta ...
Present weather and Climate: evolving Conditions
Present weather and Climate: evolving Conditions

... the warmest over the region during the 110-year period of record (see Table 5.1). Increases have been more than 1.8°F (1°C) in many parts of the Southwest over the last 110 years, with isolated 3.6°F (2°C) increases occurring in southwestern portions of the region. Both daytime high temperatures (Fi ...
On the Conflict Shoreline
On the Conflict Shoreline

... and Greece, to name several. Climate change gives a developing context to all these problems, as well as creating many problems of its own by exacerbating agricultural, economic, social and migratory trends. Some informed commentators suggest we have only a decade or so to begin to reverse the rise ...
Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Forests in the
Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Forests in the

... increases in urban population in a subset of cities throughout the WA State. Our results indicate that both urban populations and air temperatures have increased in the cities of Puget Sound in recent decades. The link between the increases in urban temperature and urban population was more pronounc ...
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Attribution of recent climate change



Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly in the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms (to which recent climate change has been attributed) are anthropogenic, i.e., the result of human activity. They are: increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is ""extremely likely"" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. The IPCC defines ""extremely likely"" as indicating a probability of 95 to 100%, based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: A basic physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by most scientists, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: scientific opinion on climate change).
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