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Climate Change The story line • • • • • • Earth’s energy budget More energy? Warming? What else? What about the future? So what? The climate system Involves the exchange of energy and moisture that occur among the: • Atmosphere • Hydrosphere • Solid Earth • Biosphere • Cryosphere (ice and snow) Natural causes for climate change • Greenhouse gases • Solar variation – Long term increase – 11-year cycle (0.08%) • Orbital variations • Volcanism • Plate tectonics Human causes for climate change • Long-lived greenhouse gases – CO2, Methane, N2O • Aerosols • Land use • Aviation contrails More Energy? Warming yet? What else? Larsen B ice shelf broken up Jan 31, 2002 March 7, 2002 Contributions to Sea Level Rise What about the future? How good are climate models? • Simple climate model • Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) • Atmosphere-ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) Temperature increase for different levels of CO2 concentration IPCC SRES Scenarios • A – Economic growth – A1: more integrated and convergent world with stabilizing population at 9 billion – A2: more divided and fragmented world with increasing population • B – Ecologically friendly – B1: more integrated world with stabilizing population – B2: more divided and fragmented world with slower rate of population growth Emission Scenarios Projected global surface warming and sea level rise at 2100 So what? A tale of an island Cape May County, New Jersey Risk Zones 0 - 3 ft. 3 - 6 ft. 6 - 9 ft. above 9 ft. Roads Limited Access Highways Secondary Roads Other Highway Ramp Atlantic County, New Jersey Risk Zones 0 ft. and below 0-3 ft. 3-6 ft. 6-9 ft. above 9 ft. open water Roads Limited Access Highways Secondary Roads Other Highway Ramp Mid-Atlantic States: MA-VA • About 1,000 square miles of land area lies below 3 feet • Within this area, about 70 square miles are developed land • About 388 thousand people live in this high risk zone. • Nearly 3,000 miles of roads are exposed to such high risk of inundation. • Southern states have more area, people and facilities lying in high risk zones because of gentler terrain and more development along the coast • CARA website Do Warmer Seas mean worse Hurricanes? Sea surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico, 8/28/2005 Total power dissipated by tropical cyclones compared to September North Atlantic sea surface temperature (Emanuel, 2005) Disruption of ocean circulation? Shifts in Agriculture Extreme Weather Events Human Health • More heat-related deaths • Spread of tropical diseases into temperate areas • Increase of vector-borne diseases: malaria, west Niles, Lyme disease • Disruption of water and food supply Species distribution and diversity