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Social Protection approaches in Asia/Pacific Bangkok, June 2012 Two pronged approach Context: Social Protection Floor Focus: Age and security Two strategies: • • Social pensions Older People’s Associations World Bank model A universal pension: the foundation to a pensions system An alternative: a ‘pensions test’ impact on poverty rates of older people: Brazil rural pension Reaches 92% of those over-65 Investment in children • Nutrition: Pensions associated with a 5 cm increase in height among children in South Africa • Education: South Africa pension led to 8% increase in enrolment among poorest 20% Similar impact in Brazil among girls aged 12-14 • Health: In Lesotho, 8% spent on health of both older person and family members, especially children Better nutrition will lead to better health Affordability and sustainability Input Costing Affordabili ty Sustainabi lity Impact •Data sets •Statistics •Census • Household surveys •Benefit value (amount) •Coverage • Universal •Targeted •Transaction costs • Revenue/ expenditur e budget •Cost trends • Poverty headcount •Budget trends •Poverty gap •Household poverty • older people health Construct costing scenarios for the base year Construct affordability scenarios for the base year •GDP •GDP trends • Potential revenue Construct sustainabilit y scenarios over time How does impact relate to the objectives Construct impact forecasts Costing universal pensions • Two Key variables Age of eligibility: The age at which people become entitled to the pension; the higher the age, the less people are eligible, and the lower the overall cost of the scheme. Size of grant: The cash amount provided to beneficiaries; the lower the size of the grant, the lower the overall cost of the scheme. Administration of Scheme: For universal around 5% in addition, for means tested ranges between around 10% for a simple test and 25% for intensive targeting Social protection demand side Thank you