Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Profile of Jamaica in the Context of Vulnerability “Setting the Stage” The Issue of Vulnerability In the 1980s-1990s Caribbean countries (among others) lobbied extensively and successfully for a global platform within which the special and unique characteristics which shape, define and challenge their development could be discussed. Lobby resulted in global summit and formulation of the SIDS POA in 1994 The issue of “vulnerability” is a key consideration in defining the special status of SIDS For SIDS, vulnerability is all encompassing • Economic • Ecological • Social 1. ECONOMIC Highly “open” economies susceptible to external “shocks” • e.g.: changes in prices of primary commodities - bauxite, citrus, bananas and sugar produce immediate impact on national economic future 1. ECONOMIC Vulnerability to changes in global trade regimes: • Trade liberalization - resulting in lowering of taxes on trade - some Caribbean countries derived 60%+ of government revenue from taxes on trade resulting in serious dislocation 1. ECONOMIC Development of Regional Trading Blocks e.g., Jamaica - Impact of NAFTA (loss of jobs to Mexico) Declining manufacturing sector: • 1990 - 20% GDP • 2000 - 15% GDP 1. ECONOMIC Changes in global trading has resulted in: • Loss of preferential access for bananas • New dispensation - sugar and rum 1. ECONOMIC • Serious problems: WI bananas • St Kitts/Nevis: divestment from sugar 1. ECONOMIC Classification as “high risk” high cost of insurance/reinsurance negative impact on investment & production costs 1. ECONOMIC other characteristics • Undiversified economic structure • Small domestic markets • Constraints on institutional capacity 2. ECOLOGICAL • Fragility of natural resource base • Vulnerability to sea-level rise • Susceptibility to natural disasters Hurricanes & Tropical Storms 1980-1989 3. SOCIAL • High rates of migration “brain drain” effect • High rates of natural increase pressure on State to provide basic services • Human resource constraints required skills Most of these vulnerabilities are characteristic of Jamaica Vulnerability Profile of Jamaica 1. ECONOMIC Dependence on: (Year 2000) • • • • • Manufacturing Financial services Tourism Mining Agriculture (sugar & bananas) - 15.8% - 14.9% 9.2% 9.1% 7.1% 1. ECONOMIC (Relatively) Small population • Small domestic markets • Limited capacity to mobilize domestic savings 2. ECOLOGICAL Susceptible to natural disasters • Hurricane Allen, 1980 - category 4-5 • Hurricane Gilbert, 1988 - category 4-5 2. ECOLOGICAL • Low-lying coast - vulnerable to storm surge - potential for extensive coastal damage • Vulnerability of tourism infrastructure to storm surge Hurricane Gilbert Damages • • • • • • Domestic crops Roads Education Housing (44% of stock) Tourism (hotels damaged) Deaths J$769.0 million $ 39.0 million $ 388.0 million $ 2.0 billion 86.0% 45 Also Mainly Coastal Geographic Concentration Negril, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Port Antonio 35.3% 28.5% 21.5% 2.5% 2.2% South Coast 10.5% Kingston 2. ECOLOGICAL • Modeling has shown that a category 5 storm would generate a 3-4 meter storm surge • Extensive inland inundation potential Photo No. 1 of Montego Bay Photo No. 2 of Montego Bay 2. ECOLOGICAL • Extensive damages during Hurricane Gilbert to all island 3. SOCIAL Location of settlements in vulnerable areas: • Coast • Hilly/mountainous areas • Flood plains (problem for Hurricane Michelle) Jamaica 1970-1998 Storm Related Fatalities Year Total Deaths: by Floods by Windstorms 1990-1998 8 8 0 1980-1989 172 110 62 1970-1979 91 85 6 Source: Em-Dat 3. SOCIAL Extensive outmigration of persons at all levels of income 3. SOCIAL High rates of natural increase pressure on State for essential services 3. SOCIAL • Unemployment • Crime Natural disasters serve to underscore a country’s peculiar vulnerabilities Quantum of costs! Gilbert 1998: 49 people killed 800,000 affected 200,000 homeless Direct damage - US$956 million Indirect damage - US$230 million Total losses > 65% GDP The Legacy of Michelle Area of disturbed weather, 28 October 2001 Institutional/Operational Constraints • Lack of applied methodology • Difficulties with organizational structure - problems of coordination Areas of Worse Damage • Spanish River Watershed • Swift River Watershed Damages: • Flooding • Landslides • Debris flow Damages • Infrastructure: Access roads to bridges Secondary roads • Bridges: Spanish River Swift River Westmoreland River • Affected population: 5 lives lost 40,000 affected (lost electricity) 4,000 immediately affected 800 evacuated Damages … Continued • Community services: Schools, health clinics, community centers • Houses: 500 completely destroyed • Agriculture: 1911 ha crops (coffee, bananas) Michelle Underscored Weaknesses in: Data gathering protocols for assessing disasters impacts Methodology for coordination Physical planning/landuse planning Watershed management Preparedness for evacuation and sheltering Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability due to Man-made Impacts Hurricane Michelle Heavy rains Steep slopes Highly erodable soils Geological faults Intervention by man Landslides Flooding Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability due to Man-made Impacts Intervention by Man Rivers Land Clearing of river banks Improper land use Development or river beds Deforestation (slopes) Animal grazing in gullies Use of fire to clear lands Mining gravel and sand in beds Clearing of steep slopes Exacerbation of flooding Landslides Problems for Communities & Infrastructure losses Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow Damage to Infrastructure Michelle underscored: Poor Land Use Planning: Poor Settlement Strategy Historical evidence that this phenomena had occurred several times before 1837 1937 1940 1943 2001 Michelle also Underscored Destructive Cultural Practices: • • • • Cutting of trees for charcoal Use of fire to clear land Livestock grazing in river bed Development of flood plains Contributed to Impacts Michele emphasized the economic dependence of communities on agriculture • Loss of coffee • Loss of bananas • Livestock losses Michelle underscored existing vulnerabilities and points to the need for long term investments in: • Watershed management • Land use planning Lessons Learnt in Post-Michelle Reconstruction process must rebuild while reducing vulnerability Implications for several issues, including: Land use Cultural practices Settlement strategy Objectives of this workshop are: To provide exposure in the application of the ECLAC Methodology in accessing the effects of disasters Objectives Point the way to policy changes which can significantly reduce Jamaica's vulnerabilities to natural disasters over time. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean P. O. Box 1113, Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago Tel: 868-623-5595; Fax: 868-623-8485; e-mail: [email protected] April 2002