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Wildfires Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Increased risk of property damage Increased hunting opportunities Economic/ social disruption Drier Forest Warmer annual average Temperatures Increase in suitable range of Mountain Pine Beetle Road Closures/ evacuations Increased atmospheric moisture and lightning strikes Increased Frequency & Severity of Wildfires More Fuel in Forest Increase in Burned Landscapes Increased risk of erosion and flooding Increased backcountry fire risk for tourism and recreation Opportunities for Berry and Mushroom harvest Health and safety hazard to public Wildlife composition change/ impact Decreased Visual quality Increased Harvest/ salvage opportunities Wildfire Science • In Elkford between 1900-2004, the summer minimum temperature increased 1.0 to 1.5°C and maximum temperature increased 0.5 to 1.0 °C • It is projected that between 2041-2070, summer temperatures in Elkford will increase 2°C to 3°C and precipitation will decrease -10% to -5% • Warmer temperatures lead to drier forests and an increased frequency and severity of wildfires • Increases in atmospheric moisture could lead to increases in lightningcaused fire ignitions • Warmer temperatures have been shown to increase the climatically suitable range of the mountain pine beetle. Forests damaged by MPB are more susceptible to fire risk Flooding & Landslides Elkford Potential and Opportunities ElkfordFlood ImpactsImpacts and Opportunities Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Public health and safety Financial loss for District Liability risk Insurance cost Increased winter precipitation Increased risk of flooding & landslides Economic disruption Earlier spring snow melt Increased risk of property damage Increased erosion Increased runoff from forest impacted by fire and pests Increased glacial melt Potential increase in height of floodplain Increased cost of stormwater infrastructure Flood/ Stormwater/ Erosion Science • It is projected that between 2041-2070, precipitation will increase in the winter by 20% to 25% and in the spring by 0% to 5% • The frequency and severity of spring flooding in British Columbia could be affected by four separate factors: an increase in winter precipitation, a reduction in the extent and duration of snow cover, an earlier spring melt, and increased runoff from watersheds in which forests have been killed by the mountain pine beetle infestation • Wildfires can cause soils to be hydrophobic (water repellent), which increases surface runoff and erosion and can increase flood risk near post-burn sites • Projected warming in the western mountains by the mid-21st century is very likely to cause glacial melt, earlier spring snow melt, more winter rain events, and increased peak winter flows which could lead to increases in spring flooding events Water Availability Elkford Potential Water Availability Impacts Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Economic/ tourism disruption Shift in timing and amount of precipitation Impacts on Fish Populations Earlier snow melt Longer periods of low stream flow More prolonged droughts Increase in average temperature Greater cost for water Glacial retreat/ declining snowpack Reduced Water Availability Increased competition over water resources Less rain in summer Impacts on local farming Changes to groundwater recharge and discharge rates Impact on water table depth Water Availability Science • • • • • • • • It is projected there will be -10% to -5% less precipitation in Elkford’s summers between 2041 and 2070 Observed changes in the Columbia Basin in the last century include longer periods of low stream flow, and lower flows at the end of summer Smaller glaciers, declining snowpack, shifts in timing and amount of precipitation, and prolonged drought will increasingly limit water supply during periods of peak demand Glacial fed streams will likely have good late summer streamflow until glacier recession has reached a critical point. At that criticial point it is unknown what will happen. More study on Elkford’s glaciers is needed. Decreasing snowpack and glacial melt will limit the quantity and alter the timing of water availability Changes in temperature and precipitation may alter water table depths Reductions in stream flow will have negative effects on both groundwater recharge and discharge rates Reduced water supplies coupled with increases in demand are likely to exacerbate competition for water resources Snow Elkford Potential Snow and Impacts & Opportunities Elkford Impacts Opportunities Reduction in number of skiable days Reduced winter tourism & recreation opportunities Earlier spring snow melt Shift in timing and amount of precipitation Increase in average temperature Increased winter rain events Reduced winter recreation options Reduced Winter Snowpack Glacial retreat Reduced snow removal costs Prolonged summer tourism and recreation Less favourable back country conditions Less snow = less shovelling Snow Pack Science • Warmer temperatures, increased rain event, and earlier spring melt are expected to reduce the winter snowpack in BC • In the last 50 years in Southern BC, less annual snowfall has led to a decreased snowpack in spring and at lower elevations • In BC as a whole there has been a decrease in the snow to total precipitation ratio (more rain, less snow during cold season) • Snowpack analysis from 1956-2005 suggests that that the snowpack in BC decreased 4%, the Kootenays decreased 6%, and the East Kootenay decreased 13% (Annual average snow water equivalents on April 1- with ‘natural variability’ removed) • Projected rises in snowlines due to warming temperatures will likely impact ski operations across the province • A -4% and -12% reduction in snowpack in the Canadian side of the Columbia River Basin is predicted for 2020s and 2040s respectively. PestsMountain PineBeetle Beetle PestsMountain Pine Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Increased risk of flooding Favourable winter temperature for pine beetle survival Increase in average temperature Favourable summer temperature for pine beetle reproduction Changes in water runoff and peak flows Change in forest hydrological cycle Higher water table Changes in resource supply and forest production Threat of Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic Increased pine mortality Increased growing degree days Abundance of mature pine in BC Economic vitality with changes in harvesting rates Increased allowable harvest during peak epidemic Shortage of wood supply in future (1550 years) Increased fuel for fire in forest Pests - Mountain Pine Beetle Science • A general shift of beetle habitats has occurred northwards and toward higher elevation • Areas most suitable for Mountain Pine Beetle have dramatically expanded into south-central and south-eastern British Columbia • Likely that Mountain Pine Beetle will overcome the barriers of high mountains as climate continues to change • Pine beetle outbreak is not expected to be as dramatic as seen in central interior, but will be significant and peak around 2011 in our region. • Harvesting practices will likely be adjusted to account for increased beetle kill timber. Consideration must be given to a fluctuation in harvest; potential increase in near future with sharp decrease after beetle infestation. • With increased harvesting, landslides and erosion more likely to occur. Ecosystem Shift Ecosystem shift Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Less mobile species decline Human barriers Increase in average temperature Human Disturbances Highly mobile species migrate Range and abundance shifts in species Changes in climate suitability for plant species Increased vulnerability to disease/ invasive species Loss of genetic diversity Genetic pressure on species with high adaptability Decline of alpine populations or species Loss of alpine ecosystems Most species shift upwards and northwards Loss of Montane Spruce and Engleman Spruce habitat Increased grasslands Economic impacts Changes in forestry practices Job losses or adjustments in forestry industry Habitat and Forest Impacts Science • • • Ecosystems in mountainous regions appear to be particularly vulnerable, and in many cases will have no where to migrate to (i.e. these ecosystems will decline and/or disappear). Changes in ecological zones may have impacts on the hydrological cycle, current forest practices, species and occurrence of disease and invasive plant species. The following table outlines the changes in the ecological zones that are currently present in the Elkford region. Ecological Zone By year Elevation Shift (meters) Engelmann SpruceSubalpine Fir 2025 2055 2025 2055 2025 2055 +86 m + 143 m - 28 m - 22 m + 168 m + 303 m Montane Spruce Alpine Tundra Northward Shift (kilometers) + 154 km + 224 km + 149 km + 302 km - 5 km - 67 km Area Change (%) 6% 3% - 19% - 40% - 60% - 85% Species Change Species Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Changes to predator-prey relationships Changes to competitive interactions Alterations to life-cycle mechanisms New hunting opportunities Tourism & Recreation impacts Hunting season change Lack of corridors Increase in average temperatures Changes to species lifecycle and migration patterns Vulnerability to changes in food availability Vulnerability to migration barriers Changes to structure and function of ecosystems Unpredictabl e migration patterns Human disturbance Isolated ecosystems (i.e.alpine) Wildlife Science • • • • • • • Adjustments, adaptations and impacts from climate change will likely happen on a species-specific level The ability for species to migrate will be impacted by habitat degradation and loss, natural disturbances (fires), and human impacts The rate of warming expected during this century will likely exceed the ability of many species to migrate and adapt. Species loss is expected, particularly for lower mobility species Lifecycles will change for those dependent on heat (i.e. larvae of insects, etc.) Migrating species are vulnerable to changes in timing of migrations and availability of food Genetic diversity may be impacted as climate change will select those individuals with greater genetic ability to adapt. There will be introduction of new species, and loss of ones currently existing in this region.