Download Global Warming in Washington

Everett, Wash.
Published: Tuesday, September 4, 2007
What global warming might mean for Washington
By Nicholas K. Geranios, Associated Press
GEORGE -- From this spot in the geographic center of Washington, you can see many
of the major potential effects of global warming.
Down below, the Columbia River collects most of the water from Eastern Washington
and carries it toward the Pacific Ocean, blocked periodically by giant dams that generate
much of the electricity that powers cities and suburbs from Spokane to Puget Sound.
The surrounding countryside is arid and sun-baked, devoid of color except where fields
are irrigated to produce the region's renowned fruits and wines.
In the distance, the snowcapped peaks of the Cascade Range are a reminder that much
of the fresh water in the Evergreen State falls as snow in the winter and then is captured
as it melts off during the dry summers. That snow also fuels the region's robust tourist
economy, carrying skiers and snowboarders in winter, and feeding the state's rushing
rivers in spring and summer as they draw rafters, kayakers and fishermen.
How would global warming affect this complex system?
Experts predict average temperatures in Washington could rise by 5 degrees over the
next seven decades. That will likely mean bigger wildfires, more coastal flooding and
more extreme weather.
Already, 53 glaciers have disappeared from the North Cascades since 1959. The
average winter snowpack at six stations in the North Cascades on April 1 has declined
26 percent over the last 60 years.
But hey, it's not the end of the state.
"We don't need to be panicking," said Lara Whitely Binder, of the University of
Washington's Climate Impacts Group. "But we do need to be smart about what we do
with information and prepare the region for it."
Lots of people in Washington are studying and preparing for global warming. The
consensus emerging so far is that, while the impacts will be significant, they are not of
disaster movie proportions.
The most significant change is likely to be less winter snowpack in the mountains, which
leads to less spring runoff, which leads to less water in hot summer months. This will
produce a cascading effect of consequences for humans, animals and plants: Drier
forests, bigger wildfires, fewer fish, different crops and different industries.
Along coastlines, higher sea levels could swamp some low-lying areas in places such as
Olympia, the state capital, although most of the state's population centers are on higher
ground.
Washington's diverse climate from rainforest to desert is a plus, Whitely Binder said. So
is the state's diverse economy, which is not dependent on one sector that could be
wiped out, she added.
"It's safe to say that virtually every aspect of the state's economy will be affected by
climate change," said Bob Doppelt, director of the Climate Leadership Initiative at the
University of Oregon.
Here's an overview of predicted effects of climate change in Washington:
Dry land around Willapa Bay and the mouth of the Columbia River could be lost, along
with extensive areas of tidal flats and beaches.
Up to 75 percent of the glaciers in the northern Cascade Range could disappear by the
end of the century.
Rising temperatures could aggravate respiratory problems in people, and create different
molds and diseases.
There could be harsher weather, including wind storms, heat waves, droughts, heavy
rain and dust storms. That would lead to more floods and landslides.
Agriculture could shift, with some areas losing and others winning. For example: Wine
grapes in Eastern Washington could be hurt by rising temperatures, but parts of Western
Washington could become suitable for vineyards.
The state's $13 billion tourism and recreation industry would likely take a hit. Hiking trails
could be damaged by weather, ski areas could see less snow, and white-water rivers
would run lower and slower.
Salmon and trout populations, which depend on clean, cold water, would be hurt by
lower and warmer rivers, leaving fewer fish for sport, commercial and tribal fishermen.
Diminished snowpack would severely cut the production of hydropower, source of about
half the region's electricity. In a warmer Washington, winter snow would fall as rain and
rush down river instead of piling up to provide power in spring and summer. Higher
power rates could hurt industries that depend on cheap electricity.
Acreage burned by wildfires could double by 2040, significantly raising firefighting costs.
But warming could also open up new business opportunities. There could be new crops
because of longer growing seasons, new industries such as production of biofuels, and
new jobs in solar, wind power and emission reduction.
© 2007The Daily Herald Co., Everett, WA