Download Hot House Global Climate Change and the Human Condition

Hot House
Global Climate Change and the Human Condition
Robert G. Strom, Professor Emeritus
Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory
University of Arizona
Introduction
The Science Consensus
and
American Attitudes on Global Warming
Reliability of Global Warming Parameters
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Global warming
Rise in greenhouse gases
Cause of global warming
Long term consequences
of global warming
• Solution to the problem
• Prospects of
implementing a solution
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Firmly Established (100%)
Firmly Established (100%)
Firmly Established (>95%)
Many known, but other
consequences probable
• Well understood
• Extremely uncertain
Some Science Organizations that Support the
Findings on Global Warming and its Human Cause
• U.S. National Academy of Sciences
• American Geophysical Union
• American Meteorology Society
• American Association for the Advancement of Science
• British Royal Society
• At least 27 other international scientific societies
Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
IPCC Main Conclusions
• Global warming is “unequivocal”.
• Human-caused emissions of
greenhouse gases are the primary
cause of global warming.
Key Scientific Findings
• Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
• Climate changes are underway and are projected to grow.
• Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are
expected to increase.
• Climate change will stress water resources in some places.
• Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
• Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm
surge.
• Risks to human health will increase.
• Climate change will interact with many social and environmental
stresses.
• Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and
ecosystems.
• Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made
TODAY.
Main Statements of World Science Community to
G8 Nations (2008)
• A concrete timetable and coordinated plan to build a substantial
number of carbon capture and storage demonstration plants.
• Better preparedness for problems climate change may cause,
including assessments of the vulnerability of developing countries.
• A faster transition to a low-carbon economy, boosted by the
promotion of greener lifestyles.
• Heavy investment in carbon-removing technology and ways to
"leapfrog" from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources.
• Governments to support research on greenhouse gas reduction
and climate change impact.
American Attitudes
on Global Warming
Pew Research Center (July 2006) and
ABC News (March 2006) Polls
• 70% believe there is “solid evidence of
global warming” but only 41% believe it is
caused by human activities. (Pew Research
Center)
• 64% perceive “a lot of disagreement
among scientists” on global warming. (ABC)
• Only 33% think scientists agree that global
warming has begun. (ABC)
Americans are much less concerned
about global warming than others…
• How “personally concerned” are you about
global warming? (Pew Research Center)
• Those who said “a great deal”…
• Japan ----- 66%
• Spain ----- 51%
• France --- 46%
• China ---- 20%
• U.S.A. --- 19%
Latest Pew Research Poll (2009)
• Only 32% of the public agree that
humans and other living things have
evolved over time through evolution
by natural selection, compared to
87% of scientists who believe so.
• Just 36% of the public agree that
Earth is growing warmer because of
human activity, compared to 84% of
scientists.
The Denial Syndrome
• The Denial Syndrome is when people or
organizations refuse to accept a principle
that has been proven by overwhelming
evidence.
• Sometimes this is due to self-interest,
ignorance, or political and religious
beliefs.
• In other cases they apparently do not
want to face reality, possibly because of
irrational fear.
The Denial Syndrome Used on Some
Well Understood Subjects
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Global Warming
Ozone Depletion
Apollo Moon Landings
Plate Tectonics
Evolution
Spherical Earth
Copernican Theory (Earth orbits Sun, etc.)
The Holocaust
The Adverse Effects of Smoking
In the U.S., the Denial Syndrome,
disinformation, and Science
Illiteracy are Leading to a
Disregard of the Dangers of Global
Warming and the Urgency of
Mitigating the Problem.