Download Traits-Based Vulnerability Assessment and Monitoring Under

Special Session Introduction:
Traits-Based Vulnerability
Assessment and Monitoring
Under Climate Change
Britta Bierwagen (EPA/ORD), Anna Hamilton, (Tetra Tech), Susan Julius
(EPA/ORD), Jen Stamp (Tetra Tech), Jonathan Witt (Fairfax County
Stormwater Planning Division)
Society for Freshwater Science
May 23, 2016
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or other collaborating agencies
SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016
Goal of climate change
vulnerability assessments?
•
•
Vulnerability assessment results should support actions by:
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–
–
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Addressing the decision context
Providing results that map to needs
Identifying and prioritizing vulnerabilities
Supporting identification of actions that address key vulnerabilities
Iterative vulnerability assessments can inform monitoring and
adaptive management to:
– Assess effectiveness
– Adjust management actions
– Re-evaluate goals and objectives in light of results
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Added value of a traits-based
approach?
•
Traits-based approaches can
–
–
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Inform the mechanistic link between pattern and process
Provide insights into observed patterns of vulnerability
Allow comparisons across geographic regions with different species pools
Identify changes over time resulting from management actions to further
understand trait responses
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Where do traits fit into vulnerability
assessments and monitoring?
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Define Goals
Vulnerability Assessment:
Exposure + Sensitivity/Adaptive Capacity
Are outputs relevant
for adaptation?
Are they at the right
scale?
Data Availability
Illustration of impacts
and uncertainties
Stakeholder Input
Are data at correct
scale (space, time)?
What proxies are
available?
What results can you
get with the data you
have?
Conceptual Models
Frameworks
Match vulnerability output to
adaptation needs
Adaptation Assessment
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Identify addressable impacts from vulnerability assessment
May involve modeling,
expert elicitation,
robustness, trade-off
analyses
Theoretical feasibility
and practical feasibility
to reduce impacts
Brainstorm/identify management options
Assess effectiveness of
management options to reduce
impact across range of climate
scenarios
Determine how to implement
actions at specific locations
Stakeholder Input
Looking for options that
might address multiple
impacts
Identify dependences,
synergies, maladaptations
Prioritize addressable impacts
How does changing scope of study
change availability of actions?
Adaptation Assessment
Implementation Strategy
Monitoring & Adaptive Management
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Example vulnerability assessment using
traits information
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From Vulnerability Assessment
to Monitoring
Vulnerability to Increasing Summer Temperatures: Potential Variables
Exposure
Sensitivity
• Projected change in summer air
• Macroinvertebrate assemblage
temperature (mid-century minus
• Probability of occurrence
baseline)
in small, cold, fast-flowing
• Rate of change (climate velocity)
catchments
• Shading
• Riparian
• Local catchment
• Total watershed
• Baseflow
• Urban land use (medium and high
intensity)
• Connectivity with cold water habitat
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Assemblage Clusters with Trait Information
G1: Cold water and
erosional preference taxa
streams
G2: Low diversity streams,
intermediate in terms of the
percentage of taxa in each
group
G3: Warm water and
depositional preference taxa
streams
Vulnerability of Catchments to
Increasing Summer Temperatures
Percent stream length in each vulnerability
category (source: NHDPlus v1)
Region
Northeast
MidAtlantic
Southeast
Vulnerability to Scenario 1
Total stream
length (km)
least
moderate
most
NA
195607.6
264856.4
571371.2
9.7
13.1
24.3
73.3
72.0
71.3
12.3
12.8
3.5
4.7
2.2
0.8
SSWR Webinar
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Regional Climate Change
Stream Monitoring Sites
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Change in Communities over Time
Dominant class baseline (1981-2010)
G1: Cold water and
erosional preference taxa
streams
G2: Low diversity streams,
intermediate in terms of the
percentage of taxa in each
group
G3: Warm water and
depositional preference taxa
streams
Dominant class future (2040-2069)
G1 probability of
membership
future (2040-2069) - baseline
(1981-2010)
Negative value = probability
of G1 membership is
reduced by mid-century
Positive value = probability of
G1 membership increases
by mid-century
Can we use traits now?
•
Traits-based approaches can be integral to vulnerability and
adaptation assessments
– Depends on depth of understanding of traits
• Is there a dominant trait impacted by climate change (e.g., stream temperatures, flow)?
• If there are multiple traits impacted by climate change, how do they co-vary?
• If traits are too specific, does this limit applicability across communities due to small
sample sizes?
– And data availability
• Is the depth of our understanding of traits reflected in the available data?
• Is it possible to collect the appropriate data?
– How is trait information useful for identifying management actions that
maintain communities over time?
• Can this guide monitoring of thresholds or community shifts?
• Can this guide restoration and other adaptation actions?
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Thank you!
Questions?
[email protected] | 703-347-8613
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