Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Tipping Points, Butterflies, and Black Swans: A Vision for Spatio-temporal Data Mining Analysis Dr. James M. Kang and Daniel L. Edwards InnoVision Basic and Applied Research Office National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency August 24, 2011 1 Approved for Public Release 11-412 Vision The development of data mining and spatio-temporal analytical techniques to discover tipping-points, butterflies, and black swans. 2 Approved for Public Release 11-412 What are Tipping Points? “the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point” – M. Gladwell Climate Tipping Point, Upsala Glacier, Patagonia, Argentina (Source: http://www.changeclimate.org/) 3 Approved for Public Release 11-412 What is the Butterfly Effect? Behavior of dynamic systems • Highly sensitive to initial conditions – J. Gleck • Involve topologically mixing – B. Hasselblatt Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle-east-protest-interactive-timeline Approved for Public Release 11-412 4 What are Black Swans? • Unpredictable patterns that do not appear to be Gaussian with an exponential diminishing tail, but a flatter curve with tails that are fatter • Have the following characteristics: • The event is a surprise (to the observer). • The event has a major impact. • After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected. – N. Taleb 5 Approved for Public Release 11-412 Challenges 6 Approved for Public Release 11-412 Tipping Point Challenges • Assumptions about a dataset may change before and after a tipping point event • Tobler’s Law vs. Teleconnections 7 Approved for Public Release 11-412 Butterfly Effect Challenges Bounding problem with sufficiency 1. Depth – sufficient data to mine vs. scope of problem? 2. Breadth - breadth of data sufficient to sample problem? 3. Missing – key data/meta data missing? 3. Stability - of mined patterns? 8 Approved for Public Release 11-412 Black Swan Challenges • As a Black Swan unfolds, • Mined patterns over populations and time may not become “interesting” • May not be prevalent or anomalous • After a Black Swan is recognized (hindsight), • Bounding sufficiency may be too complex to overcome • May not generalize to other known black swans 9 Approved for Public Release 11-412 First and Next Steps • Tipping Points • Existing literature in abrupt changes, transitions, etc. • Transient vs. Persistent • Butterflies and Black Swans • Can these be generalized? • Are these even possible? • How can we begin quantifying these events? • Example Datasets Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ • Guardian’s event dataset of middle-east • CIA World Factbook dataset 10 Approved for Public Release 11-412 www.nga.mil 11 Approved for Public Release 11-412