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Technology Applicability for Prediction & Recognition of Piracy Efforts NATO ASI September 2011 Salamanca, Spain Approach • Decompose the process of predicting and characterizing piracy attacks (the mission) into a set of technical issues (i.e. needed capabilities which technology might help provide) • For each such issue, list potential technical solutions in terms of their maturity and potential effectiveness in resolving the issue Definitions and Metrics (1 of 2) • Mission Capability: the ability to predict and recognize piracy efforts sufficiently to support effective responses • Issue: A technical problem relevant to achieving the mission capability • Criticality: the degree to which achieving the mission capability depends on resolving the given issue: i.e. finding a solution to the given problem: Most Least • Analogous Applications: other mission capabilities that involve related technical issues Definitions and Metrics (2 of 2) • Applicable Techniques: technologies or designs that might be used to solve the given issue • Effectiveness: the degree to which the given technique could provide a solution to the given problem: Least Most • Maturity: the technology readiness level (TRL) of the given technique (defined in the next chart): TRL 0-1 TRL 2-3 TRL 4-5 TRL 6-7 TRL 8-9 • Recommendations: Suggested actions for NATO or NATO members to solve the given issues Technology Readiness Levels TRL 1 Basic principles observed & reported TRL 2 Technology concept & application formulated TRL 3 Proof of concept TRL 4 Component validated in lab environment TRL 5 Component validated in relevant environment TRL 6 Prototype demonstration in relevant environment TRL 7 Prototype demonstration in operations environment TRL 8 System completed and qualified through test & demonstration TRL 9 System proven through successful mission operations Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Lower-Level Knowledge Development (1 of 2) Applicable Techniques • • • • Cooperative (e.g. AIS) Patrol Aircraft\ Long Endurance UAV Space Imagery Data Dissemination Data Alignment • Multi-INT registration • Poisson Point registr. • Evidence conditioning Uncertainty Representation • Bayesian • Evidential • Semantic Data Association • MHT • (J)PDA • PHD Maturity Analogous Applications Effective ness Wide Area Sensor Coverage Criticality Issue Recommen dations Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Lower-Level Knowledge Development (2 of 2) Applicable Techniques Target Detection • Model-Based • Anomaly-Based Target Location/ Tracking • KF, EKF, IMM • Particle Filter • PDF Target Type Classification • • • • Target Attributes • Syntactic • Explanation-Based Target Activity • Case-Based • Correlation-Based Statistical Pattern Rec Syntactic Neural Net Explanation-Based Maturity Analogous Applications Effective ness Criticality Issue Recommen dations Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Higher-Level Knowledge Development (1 of 2) Numeric/Symbolic Data Fusion Complexity Management Situation Representation Ontology Management Situation Model Management Applicable Techniques Maturity Semantic Extraction Analogous Applications Effective ness Data Mining Criticality Issue Recommen dations Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Higher-Level Knowledge Development (2 of 2) Situation Characterization Situation Tracking Scenario Recognition Threat Event Prediction Indications and Warning Applicable Techniques Maturity Network Characterization Analogous Applications Effective ness Relationship Characterization Criticality Issue Recommen dations Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Decision Support Uncertainty Presentation Conditional/Counterfactual Presentation Data Entry Hard/ Soft Data Fusion Operator Control Collaboration Tools Applicable Techniques Maturity Presentation of Situation Dynamics Analogous Applications Effective ness Situation Presentation Criticality Issue Recommen dations Threat Assessment Functions • Threat Event Prediction: Determining likely threat events (“threatened events” or “attacks”): who, what, where, when, why, how • Indications and Warning: Recognition that an attack is imminent or under way • Threat Entity Detection and Characterization: determining the identities, attributes, composition, location/track, activity capability, intent of agents and other entities involved in a threatened or current attack • Attack (or Threat Event) Assessment: – Responsible parties (country, organization, individuals, etc.) and attack roles; – Intended target(s) of attack; – Intended effect (e.g. physical, political, economic, psychological effects); – Threat capability (e.g. weapon and delivery system characteristics); – Force composition, coordination and tactics (goal and plan decomposition); • Consequence Assessment: Estimation & prediction of event outcome states (threatened situations) and cost/utility to the responsible parties, to affected parties or to system user. Can include both intended & unintended consequences