Download 5) Chapter recommendations - Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands LCC

Framing Your Group’s Assessment
Process Outline for the Aleutian and Bering Climate Vulnerability
Assessment (ABCVA)
Expectations:
Each expert group, in collaboration with the ABCVA project team, will develop a brief chapter
summarizing vulnerabilities. We seek your expert opinions and your informed speculation in
describing specific resource vulnerabilities This includes building out the brainstorm initiated
by your expert group during the AMSS workshop, to develop a deeper analysis (quantitative or
qualitative) based on further within-group discussion, use of climate data tools or other
information, and discussion among groups.
Support and Process:
Your ABCVA liaisons (Aaron, Ellen, Jeremy and Tom) will support your group’s efforts through
facilitation (e.g., hosting conference calls or work sessions, helping access climate data/expertise
and other information) and general project management including information exchange across
groups to foster an integrated science approach. The ABCVA project team will also be
responsible for weaving chapters from the five focal groups into a cohesive draft report, which
will then be provided back to you for final comments. The ABCVA team will also use the draft
report in dialogue with communities and stakeholders to include their feedback, input, and
perspectives as part of the final report. The final report will be shared with the leadership of the
Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands LCC, Alaska Climate Science Center, and Alaska Ocean
Observing System, and will of course be available for your own outreach, proposal writing, or
other interests.
Resources:
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Peers in your expert group and in the other focal expert groups
Downscale climate projection data and derived variables:
o http://tinyurl.com/Bond-climate-variables [Bering Sea Project, UW]
o http://tinyurl.com/Walsh-climate-variables [SNAP, UAF]
o http://spark.rstudio.com/uafsnap/temp_wind_events [SNAP, UAF]
o http://spark.rstudio.com/uafsnap/sea_ice_coverage/ [SNAP, UAF]
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Expertise from Nick Bond, John Walsh, and Jeremy Littell on how to best use these data
Support from your focal group liaisons(primary, secondary):
o Seabirds – Tom Van Pelt, Aaron
o Marine mammals – Aaron Poe, Tom
o Fishes, shellfish, commercial fisheries – Ellen Tyler, Tom
o Terrestrial vegetation – Jeremy Littell, Ellen
o Human community sustainability, subsistence and cultural sites – Aaron, Ellen
The following chapter outline to help guide your group’s thinking and writing
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An Outline for your Vulnerability Assessment Chapter
During the Monday “expert workshop” at AMSS, and during our expert “huddle” immediately
following the stakeholder workshop on the Friday of AMSS week, we heard requests from many
of you for help in structuring your assessment. In response, we drafted this outline, intended to
build upon the ‘three guiding questions’ posed to your group at AMSS. We recognize that it may
not be a perfect fit for all groups and should not be seen as a strict template to constrain your
thinking. Instead, this outline attempts to step your group through the suggested five sections
of your assessment chapter, aiming to inspire thinking with a series of possible questions to
consider under each section. The order of sections intends to: 1) share your group’s rationale for
identifying resources and services of importance; 2) evaluate their sensitivity to climate change;
3) assess their likely exposure to those changes; 4) discuss potential adaptive capacity; and 5)
conclude with your recommendations relative to vulnerability.
1) Identifying Important Resources and Services at Risk to Climate Change
These questions aim to guide your identification of which species, habitats, and ecosystem
services (e.g., trophic function) within your focal group that are the ‘most important’ in the
ABSI region and that are likely at greatest risk to climate change in the relatively near term
say between now and 2100.
a) Are there species/habitats or ecosystem linkages where sensitivity to climate change has
been documented or is likely due to very specific habitat, food or phenological needs?
b) Do we know enough about a particular species, resource, or habitat and its sensitivity to
climate change to make it a viable candidate for this assessment? For example, if we have
no knowledge of how sperm whales will respond to climate variables for this assessment
it might have to be a lower priority for this initial assessment.
c) Are there existing special management zones or protected areas that have been
established (e.g., Important Bird Areas defined by Audubon, or Essential Fish Habitat
designations) that might be especially vulnerable?
d) Are there species/habitats/human communities/cultural resources of already
documented to be at high risk from other threats (e.g., endangered species, or
communities where a large economic upheaval has taken place in recent years) that may
experience compounding effects from climate change?
e) Are there key species/habitats that communities or industry depend upon (e.g., ice seals
or pollock) and that are at likely risk to climate change?
f) Are there key species/habitats that have been documented as vital to the trophic function
of the ecosystem that are of likely at risk to climate change (e.g., forage fish species)?
2) Evaluating Sensitivity to Climate Change
The intent of this section is to help guide your group as you begin to think through how
changes in climate (direct or indirect) are likely to negatively impact the resources and
services you’ve identified above. It will likely also result in the identification of the climate, or
climate-derived, information (e.g., sea ice extent or densities of krill) most needed by your
group to evaluate exposure or risk faced by your resources in Section 3.
a) Are there clear species-specific physiological thresholds that are a concern due to
changes in temperature, salinity, etc.? This could be especially important for species or
human communities with a high degree of specialization.
b) Is there a known dependence on key habitats (e.g., sea ice of a certain thickness and
season, or focused breeding or wintering locations) or sites like particular low-lying
coastal areas that may be of special risk?
c) Are there ways that climate change might affect important aspects of phenology like the
timing of breeding or migration or the timing of species harvest?
d) Are there expected changes in species distributions that might make them less available
to humans for harvest—or range shifts that would bring in new competitor or predator
species that may impact resources or communities?
e) Are there ecological linkages likely to be disrupted such as the timing of primary
production of algae or spatial shifts in the availability of key forage fishes?
f) Are there species with slow population growth rates or reproductive strategies that likely
result in them being at greater risk to changing climates?
3) Evaluating Exposure to Climate Change:
The intent of this section is to help guide your analysis of climate projection information and
describe the most important risks faced by your species or services over the next 40 - 100
years. Consider how your group might use the data available (e.g., the outputs of the Walsh &
Bond downscaling efforts) and other information to assess the vulnerability of specific
resources or service areas of interest.
a) How will the resources or services you have selected to assess likely to respond to
projected changes in climate or climate driven processes? Remember to consider the
most basic of climate variables: temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, cloud cover,
and solar radiation, as well as derived variables like: loss of sea ice, increased fall
storminess, increases in winter temperatures (as means or perhaps extreme events) etc.
b) Can you further focus your assessment on key geographic locales where exposure to
effects of climate change is likely of greater concern? Or areas where by contrast there
are relatively low risks due to climate changes? For example, the Fisheries group
identified the Eastern Bering Sea shelf vs. the Aleutian Islands. It may also be possible to
identify even more precise geographic zones like St. Lawrence or the Pribilofs, etc.
c) Is there a way to focus your assessment on key seasons or timeframes when resources or
services are most vulnerable?
d) Are there other landscape-scale conservation threats or stressors that may compound the
risk of climate change impacts on these resources or services? This could take the form
of loss of sea ice allowing greater marine shipping traffic or increased ocean acidification
on the eastern Bering Sea shelf reducing productivity of ocean waters.
4) Evaluating Adaptive Capacity
In this section we are asking your group to reflect on the sensitivities and exposure to climate
changes that you have identified in previous sections, and evaluate capacities for adaptation.
a) Is there reason to expect that any species you have identified have the ability to adapt
either by flexibility in habitat use or behavior or near term (say in <100 years)? For
example, thinking of trophic function, is there evidence that species can shift to other
prey resources if current trophic linkages are disconnected?
b) In the context of human communities, are there some that seem more likely to be able to
make rapid enough shifts in practices for harvest of subsistence or commercial species?
c) Are there actions that could be taken by managers, industry, communities or other
stakeholders to help address or mitigate effects from climate change on your resource or
service? For example, if cultural sites are at risk from degradation by increased coastal
erosion could they at the very least be prioritized for documentation to preserve them in
the historic record?
d) Are there other actions managers, industry, and communities might take to mitigate
compounding or interacting climate stressors that would help reduce overall exposure or
risk of resources? For example, changing a harvest regulation for the commercial
fisheries industry or removing invasive species that might help reduce climate-driven
compounding effects.
5) Chapter recommendations
This concluding section provides an opportunity to identify clear gaps in information that if
filled could improve manager’s and stakeholder’s ability to address climate vulnerabilities in
the ABSI region. In some cases this may even be specific studies or collaborations, and/or
changes in current management practices.
a) What are some additional key data or information, beyond what was available to your
group in this assessment, that are vital for identifying and understanding specific climate
effects/impacts?
b) Are there specific studies, inquiries, syntheses or collaborations that should be launched
or supported that would greatly improve the ability to assess climate vulnerabilities for
your resource or service?
c) Are there any no regrets strategies that are feasible for managers, industry, communities
or stakeholders to take at this point to address the vulnerabilities your group has
identified? For example, assuming cultural sites are threatened by coastal erosion is it a
reasonable mitigation effort for managers/stakeholders to prioritize the comprehensive
inventory and documentation of the historical significance of those sites.