Download 08-01-Cotula-271_ppt

At a turning point?
Commercial investments and pressures on land
in low and middle-income countries
Lorenzo Cotula and Thierry Berger, IIED
From the mid-2000s, investment boom in agriculture, forestry,
mining and petroleum. Contested figures but clear trend
Aggregate scale of agribusiness plantation deals smaller than
originally thought – but significant increase, often geographically
concentrated
Concomitant pressures from investments in other sectors, including
petroleum, mining and forestry
Eg investment in metals exploration increased ten-fold in 20022012, investment in fossil fuels doubled over the same period
Enduring misperceptions – eg role of China in Africa
Source: based on World Bank data
Investment slowdown across the review sectors
Eg mining: exploration budgets halved between 2012 and end 2015
Trends in agribusiness plantation deals
Source: derived from Land Matrix and GRAIN data
On the ground, pressures continue to be felt
National elites, long-term processes, closing of the land frontier
Many agribusiness plantation deals now at implementation stage
Numerous reports of investment-related land conflict (agribusiness,
extractives)
Pressure on social responsibility budgets
Shrinking political space in some contexts
Significant developments in investment frameworks
Eg national, regional and global frameworks for public-private
partnerships in agriculture
SDIs promoting agricultural commercialisation, and aiming to link
investments in different sectors (eg agri, mining)
International investment protection treaties – covering at least 64%
agribusiness plantation deals
Investment treaty-based investor-state arbitrations in natural resource sectors
Source: based on UNCTAD data
Continued priority, but shifting contours
Implementation phase, themes for research and action (eg “legacy”
issues, community grievances)
Given long-term prospects, now time to invest in readiness
Consider not only agribusiness plantation deals, but also wider
processes of agricultural commercialisation involving investments
in different segments of the value chain
Track cumulative, multi-sector developments in geographic
“hotspots”, beyond existing “case study” approaches
Monitor new arenas of resource conflict eg growing NR-related
investor-state arbitrations with community dimensions
Consider shrinking political space, assess options, address risk