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Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution Brian Smith Team Leader, Turbine Development National Wind Technology Center May 8, 2002 Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide Actual 45000 40000 35000 Projected Jan 2002 Cumulative MW Rest of World Rest of World Rest of World = 2,365 North America North America North America = 4,543 Europe Europe Europe = 16,362 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2001 Windpower Monthly, January 2002 International Market Drivers • Europe – high mandated purchase rates (85-90% of retail, 10-12 cents/kWh) – strong government and public commitment to the environment, including climate change – population density & existing developments driving off shore deployment in Europe • Developing World – huge capacity needs – lack of existing infrastructure (grid) – pressure for sustainable development (IDB’s, climate change) – tied aid Wind Energy Technology At it’s simplest, the wind turns the turbine’s blades, which spin a shaft connected to a generator that makes electricity. Large turbines can be grouped together to form a wind power plant, which feeds power to the electrical transmission system. Sizes and Applications Small (10 kW) • Homes • Farms • Remote Applications (e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking) Intermediate (10-250 kW) • Village Power • Hybrid Systems • Distributed Power Large (250 kW - 2+MW) • Central Station Wind Farms • Distributed Power Cost of Energy Trend 1979: 40 cents/kWh 2000: 4 - 6 cents/kWh • Increased Turbine Size • R&D Advances • Manufacturing Improvements NSP 107 MW Lake Benton wind farm 4 cents/kWh (unsubsidized) 2004: 3 - 5 cents/kWh Finances and Incentives • Current Situation Wind energy viable at higher wind speed sites (Class 6 – 15 mph annual average @ 10m) Limited high wind sites in U.S. Subsidies important to compete • Production Tax Credit 1.7 cents/kWh (escalating) for 10 years (~ 1.1 cent/kWh reduction in contract price) deadline pressure increases costs • State and Local tax can be significant +/- 0.5 cents/kWh impact NREL’s National Wind Technology Center Research and Development • Basic & Applied Research • World-Class Testing Facilities • Advanced Prototype Development 2-D Dynamic Stall NASA Ames 80’X 120’ Wind Tunnel Yaw angle = 30° EW 1.5 MW Drive Train 35 Meter Blade Strength Test Wind Resource Mapping • Identifies most promising areas for wind energy development • Employs geographic information system technology to create layers of key information • Used by state energy planners, Indian tribes, and developers • Approach changing from empirical to numerical modeling techniques • Forecasting, resource assessment and site specific inflow quantification methods are likely to converge into a single approach Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment • Predicting the aerodynamic loads on wind turbines remains the greatest technical challenge: - - Wind is unsteady and three-dimensional. Rapid changes in direction & magnitude force different flow conditions (stall, skewed flow, shear, etc.) These conditions are unlike anything experienced by aircraft or helicopters. • Completed joint program with NASA Ames in the 80’ x 120’ wind tunnel to resolve these aerodynamic effects. • Results obtained will provide the benchmark data for aerodynamic code development and advanced blade concepts for the next 5-10 years. Hybrid Systems Development • Investigate problems associated with integrating multiple generation & energy storage devices -wind -PV Wales, Alaska Control System Installation Staff are currently in Wales installing innovative, high penetration control system for the wind/storage/diesel power supply system. -diesel generation -micro-turbines -fly wheels -batteries • Develop new control strategies to optimize hybrid operation using multiple hardware components • Test operation of user hardware in on & off line hybrid environment. • • • • • water pumping battery charging power conversion ice making refrigeration NREL’s Component Testing Facilities • NREL operates the only full-scale blade testing facility in the U.S. for MW-scale wind turbines. • NREL operates the only facility in the world for full-system wind turbine drive train testing. 34-Meter Blade Test at Industrial User Facility • Both facilities are currently operating at maximum capacity. • Larger facilities are necessary to support the development of new low wind speed technology: – 5-MW designs under development – GE/Enron Wind 3.6 MW prototype is built and ready to test 750-kW Drive train test in 2.5-MW Dynamometer Test Facility Wind Integration Monitoring & Analysis Wind integration barriers: • Fluctuating wind outputs raise concern about system stability and ancillary costs • Wind cannot be controlled or dispatched Lake Benton and Storm Lake 10-minute Average Power 100000 Storm Lake Lake Benton 90000 80000 70000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 1/1/01~1/7/01 18:00 6:00 12:00 0:00 18:00 6:00 12:00 0:00 18:00 12:00 6:00 0:00 18:00 6:00 12:00 0:00 18:00 12:00 6:00 0:00 18:00 6:00 12:00 0:00 18:00 12:00 6:00 0 0:00 (kW) 60000 Research needs: • Monitor windfarm output to measure the fluctuations, and access ancillary impacts and costs • Assist utilities develop better models of windfarm electrical output for planning, operations, and transmission requirements • Provide technical support to utility staff developing and planning for wind integration • Support the improvement of forecasting techniques to predict output Challenging DOE Program Goals Low Wind Speed Technology Develop wind turbine technology (>100kW) capable of 3 cents/kWh in Class 4 (13.4 mph wind site) by 2010 • Increase area available for wind energy development by a factor of 20 or more • Accelerate achievement of the domestic renewable energy generations capacity goal Distributed Wind Systems • Reduce the cost of energy from distributed wind systems to $.10-$.15/kWh at Class 3 wind sites (12 mph wind site) by 2007 • Increase distributed energy capacity in the United States Wind Resource Class Comparison Wind Power Classification •Wind Power Class•Resource Potential •Wind Speed at 10 m (mph) •4-5 •Good/Excellent •13-14 •6 •Outstanding •15+ Transmission Line 230 KV and greater Major Load Center Benefits of Low Wind Speed Technology to U.S. Industry 60 *Growth trajectory from NEMS using AEO 2001 assumptions with 3 cent/Class4/2007 technology 50 GW 40 Competitive Class 4 Technology* Opportunity 30 20 High Renewables 10 EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases Baseline (15 GW in 2020) • No technology breakthrough • Class 6 Plateau Reference 2001 2005 Program Goal: 3 cents/kWh Class 4 COE in 2010 2010 Expands 2015 2020 resource base 20-fold Reduces average distance to load 5-fold 35 GW additional opportunity by 2020 Height in meters Height in meters Turbines Under Development with Industry Rated Power (kW) Rotor Diameter (m) Number of Blades Prototype Year WindLite Corporation Southwest WindPower Bergey Windpower Atlantic Orient Corporation Northern Power Systems Enron Wind Corporation Enron Wind Corporation Wind Turbine Company 10 5 50 50 100 750 1500 750 7 5 14 15 19 50 77 55 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2002 2002 2001 1999 2001 1999 2002 2001 Turbine Research Prototypes AOC 15/50 (NTPT) Bergey XL.50 (SWT) NPS NW 100 (CWT) EW 750i (NTRT) WTC 500 kW EMD-1 (NGT) EW 1.5 MW POC (NGT) EW 1.5 MW Technology Challenges – Very Tall Towers Tall Tower Concepts: (85 – 120 m, 280 – 400 ft) Vestas V66 on 117 m tower • • • • • • Steel tube Truss towers Pre-stressed concrete Composite Hybrid towers Self-erecting/no cranes Development Challenges: • • • • • • Weight and cost Shipping On site manufacturing Fatigue loading Tower load feedback control Foundation cost Technology Challenges – 5 MW Drive Train Generator and Single Stage Gearbox Integrated Low Speed Source: Multibrid Technology Brochure A Future Vision for Wind Energy 2002 Maturing Technology Bulk Power Generator 4-6¢ at 15mph Land Based Bulk Electricity Business as Usual Path Land Based LWST Mid-West Plains Offshore Path Offshore Wind Ocean Based LWST 5MW Scale Coastal Markets Wind Farms Regulatory Barriers Future Low Wind Speed Technology 3¢/kWh at 13mph 20% of Electricity High Probability of Success 2010 Low Wind Speed Technology Offshore ?¢/kWh at 13mph 20% of Electricity 2010 Wind-Hydrogen Path Potential 20% of Electricity Market Transmission Barriers Land & Ocean Large & Small • Electricity • Electrolysis • H2 Cost & Infrastructure Barriers Wind-H2 Technology •Transportation •Firm Electricity •Industrial •Residential Unlimited Market 2030 & Beyond