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Wind Energy Overview:
Technology, Economics and Future Evolution
Brian Smith
Team Leader, Turbine Development
National Wind Technology Center
May 8, 2002
Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide
Actual
45000
40000
35000
Projected
Jan 2002 Cumulative MW
Rest of World
Rest of World
Rest of World = 2,365
North America
North America
North America = 4,543
Europe
Europe
Europe
= 16,362
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2001
Windpower Monthly, January 2002
International Market Drivers
• Europe
– high mandated purchase rates (85-90% of retail, 10-12 cents/kWh)
– strong government and public commitment to the environment,
including climate change
– population density & existing developments driving off shore
deployment in Europe
• Developing World
– huge capacity needs
– lack of existing infrastructure
(grid)
– pressure for sustainable
development (IDB’s, climate
change)
– tied aid
Wind Energy Technology
At it’s simplest, the
wind turns the turbine’s
blades, which spin a
shaft connected to a
generator that makes
electricity. Large
turbines can be grouped
together to form a wind
power plant, which
feeds power to the
electrical transmission
system.
Sizes and Applications
Small (10 kW)
• Homes
• Farms
• Remote Applications
(e.g. water pumping,
telecom sites,
icemaking)
Intermediate
(10-250 kW)
• Village Power
• Hybrid Systems
• Distributed Power
Large (250 kW - 2+MW)
• Central Station Wind Farms
• Distributed Power
Cost of Energy Trend
1979: 40 cents/kWh
2000:
4 - 6 cents/kWh
• Increased
Turbine Size
• R&D Advances
• Manufacturing
Improvements
NSP 107 MW Lake Benton wind farm
4 cents/kWh (unsubsidized)
2004:
3 - 5 cents/kWh
Finances and Incentives
• Current Situation
 Wind energy viable at higher wind speed sites
(Class 6 – 15 mph annual average @ 10m)
 Limited high wind sites in U.S.
 Subsidies important to compete
• Production Tax Credit
 1.7 cents/kWh (escalating) for 10 years
(~ 1.1 cent/kWh reduction in contract price)
 deadline pressure increases costs
• State and Local tax can be significant
 +/- 0.5 cents/kWh impact
NREL’s National Wind Technology Center
Research and Development
• Basic & Applied Research
• World-Class Testing Facilities
• Advanced Prototype
Development
2-D Dynamic Stall
NASA Ames 80’X 120’ Wind Tunnel
Yaw angle = 30°
EW 1.5 MW Drive Train
35 Meter Blade Strength Test
Wind Resource Mapping
• Identifies most promising areas for
wind energy development
• Employs geographic information
system technology to create layers
of key information
• Used by state energy planners,
Indian tribes, and developers
• Approach changing from empirical
to numerical modeling techniques
• Forecasting, resource assessment
and site specific inflow
quantification methods are likely
to converge into a single approach
Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment
• Predicting the aerodynamic loads on
wind turbines remains the greatest
technical challenge:
-
-
Wind is unsteady and three-dimensional.
Rapid changes in direction & magnitude force
different flow conditions (stall, skewed flow,
shear, etc.)
These conditions are unlike anything
experienced by aircraft or helicopters.
• Completed joint program with NASA
Ames in the 80’ x 120’ wind tunnel to
resolve these aerodynamic effects.
• Results obtained will provide the
benchmark data for aerodynamic code
development and advanced blade
concepts for the next 5-10 years.
Hybrid Systems Development
•
Investigate problems associated with integrating
multiple generation & energy storage devices
-wind
-PV
Wales, Alaska
Control System Installation
Staff are currently in Wales
installing innovative, high
penetration control system for
the wind/storage/diesel power
supply system.

-diesel generation
-micro-turbines
-fly wheels
-batteries
•
Develop new control strategies to optimize hybrid
operation using multiple hardware components
•
Test operation of user hardware in on & off line
hybrid environment.
•
•
•
•
•
water pumping
battery charging
power conversion
ice making
refrigeration
NREL’s Component Testing Facilities
• NREL operates the only full-scale blade
testing facility in the U.S. for MW-scale
wind turbines.
• NREL operates the only facility in the
world for full-system wind turbine drive
train testing.
34-Meter Blade Test at Industrial User Facility • Both facilities are currently operating at
maximum capacity.
• Larger facilities are necessary to support
the development of new low wind speed
technology:
– 5-MW designs under development
– GE/Enron Wind 3.6 MW prototype is
built and ready to test
750-kW Drive train test in 2.5-MW
Dynamometer Test Facility
Wind Integration Monitoring & Analysis
Wind integration barriers:
• Fluctuating wind outputs raise
concern about system stability
and ancillary costs
• Wind cannot be controlled or
dispatched
Lake Benton and Storm Lake
10-minute Average Power
100000
Storm Lake
Lake Benton
90000
80000
70000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
1/1/01~1/7/01
18:00
6:00
12:00
0:00
18:00
6:00
12:00
0:00
18:00
12:00
6:00
0:00
18:00
6:00
12:00
0:00
18:00
12:00
6:00
0:00
18:00
6:00
12:00
0:00
18:00
12:00
6:00
0
0:00
(kW)
60000
Research needs:
• Monitor windfarm output to
measure the fluctuations, and
access ancillary impacts and costs
• Assist utilities develop better
models of windfarm electrical
output for planning, operations,
and transmission requirements
• Provide technical support to
utility staff developing and
planning for wind integration
• Support the improvement of
forecasting techniques to predict
output
Challenging DOE Program Goals
Low Wind Speed Technology
Develop wind turbine technology (>100kW) capable of 3
cents/kWh in Class 4 (13.4 mph wind site) by 2010
• Increase area available for wind energy development by
a factor of 20 or more
• Accelerate achievement of the domestic renewable
energy generations capacity goal
Distributed Wind Systems
• Reduce the cost of energy from distributed wind
systems to $.10-$.15/kWh at Class 3 wind sites (12
mph wind site) by 2007
• Increase distributed energy capacity in the United States
Wind Resource Class Comparison
Wind Power Classification
•Wind Power Class•Resource Potential
•Wind Speed at 10 m
(mph)
•4-5
•Good/Excellent
•13-14
•6
•Outstanding
•15+
Transmission Line
230 KV and greater
Major Load Center
Benefits of Low Wind Speed Technology to
U.S. Industry
60
*Growth trajectory from NEMS using AEO 2001 assumptions with 3
cent/Class4/2007 technology
50
GW
40
Competitive Class 4 Technology*
Opportunity
30
20
High Renewables
10
EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases
Baseline (15 GW in 2020)
• No technology breakthrough
• Class 6 Plateau
Reference
2001
2005
Program Goal:
3 cents/kWh
Class 4 COE
in 2010
2010
 Expands
2015
2020
resource base 20-fold
 Reduces average distance to load 5-fold
 35 GW additional opportunity by 2020
Height in meters
Height in meters
Turbines Under Development with Industry
Rated Power
(kW)
Rotor Diameter
(m)
Number of
Blades
Prototype Year
WindLite
Corporation
Southwest
WindPower
Bergey
Windpower
Atlantic
Orient
Corporation
Northern
Power
Systems
Enron Wind
Corporation
Enron Wind
Corporation
Wind
Turbine
Company
10
5
50
50
100
750
1500
750
7
5
14
15
19
50
77
55
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2002
2002
2001
1999
2001
1999
2002
2001
Turbine Research Prototypes
AOC 15/50 (NTPT)
Bergey XL.50 (SWT)
NPS NW 100 (CWT)
EW 750i (NTRT)
WTC 500 kW EMD-1 (NGT)
EW 1.5 MW POC (NGT)
EW 1.5 MW
Technology Challenges – Very Tall Towers
Tall Tower Concepts:
(85 – 120 m, 280 – 400 ft)
Vestas V66 on 117 m tower
•
•
•
•
•
•
Steel tube
Truss towers
Pre-stressed concrete
Composite
Hybrid towers
Self-erecting/no cranes
Development Challenges:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Weight and cost
Shipping
On site manufacturing
Fatigue loading
Tower load feedback control
Foundation cost
Technology Challenges – 5 MW Drive Train
Generator and Single Stage Gearbox Integrated Low Speed
Source: Multibrid Technology Brochure
A Future Vision for Wind Energy
2002
Maturing Technology
Bulk Power
Generator
4-6¢ at 15mph
Land Based
Bulk Electricity
Business as Usual Path
Land Based LWST
Mid-West Plains
Offshore Path
Offshore Wind
Ocean Based LWST
5MW Scale
Coastal Markets
Wind Farms
Regulatory
Barriers
Future
Low Wind Speed
Technology
3¢/kWh at 13mph
20% of Electricity
High Probability of
Success
2010
Low Wind Speed
Technology Offshore
?¢/kWh at 13mph
20% of Electricity
2010
Wind-Hydrogen Path
Potential 20% of
Electricity Market
Transmission
Barriers
Land & Ocean
Large & Small
• Electricity
• Electrolysis
• H2
Cost & Infrastructure
Barriers
Wind-H2 Technology
•Transportation
•Firm Electricity
•Industrial
•Residential
Unlimited Market
2030 & Beyond