Download 2,5 times greater than in the BAU scenario. Assumption : a

With the financial support of the European Commission
Study ‘Impact on employment in the EU-25 of CO2
emission reduction strategies by 2030’
Construction-housing sector
Conference Jobs in a low carbon Europe
20&21 February 2007, Brussels,
With the financial support of the European Commission

Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in
the EU residential sector at the horizons
2012 and 2030 (1)
Reference scenario : BAU (Business as Usual)
Application of the 2 existing European Directives :
 EPBD Directive (2002/91/EC) : field of application is limited to new &
existing buildings of more than 1000 m2 (22% of the heat consumption of
the European building stock).
 Directive on the final uses of energy and energy services (Dec 2005). It
requires that Member States realise energy savings of 1% per year over a
period 2008-2017.
 This BAU scenario leads to a reduction of 34 millions tons CO2 / year by
2012, or a reduction of 8% compared with 1990
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission

Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in
the EU residential sector at the horizons
2012 and 2030 (2)
II) EURIMA Alternative Scenario
 Supposes a revision of the EPBD Directive extending its
field of application to all dwellings in the EU.
 This scenario leads to a reduction of 70 million tons of CO2
a year in the residential sector, or -16%.
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission

Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in
the EU residential sector at the horizons
2012 and 2030 (3)
III. “Factor 4” alternative scenario :
 reduction of 75% in CO2 emissions in the
residential sector in the long term (2030 or 2050).
 Decreasing the thermal consumption by 3/4 going
from 200 Kwh/m2 on the average 2005 to 50
Kwh/m2.
 Increasing the investments in thermal renovation
works to go from 34 euros/m2 to 204 euros/m2 (in
constant 2006 euros), with technology existing in
2006.
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission

Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in
the EU residential sector at the horizons
2012 and 2030 (4)
 The P&M at the national & European levels
corresponding to the alternative scenarios:
 Regulatory P&Ms
 P&Ms in the form of incentives
 P&Ms to promote R&D activities in the building
industry and the building supply & materials
industries
 P&Ms for the development of training streams for new
skills & new occupations of the players in the
“sustainable construction” branch.
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission
 The effect on employment of the
various scenarios (1)
I. BAU Scenario :
 EU15 : Invest a further 10 billion euros per year in the
residential sector (or 1,1 % of the turn-over of the sector).
 From 160 to 500 kiloeuros/year/FTE job
 Creation of 20 000 to 62 500 additional FTE jobs.
 In the 10 new member States : Invest an amount of 1,6
billion/year in the energy efficiency of the residential sector
 Assuming 35 000 euros/year/FTE job
 Creation of an average of 45 000 new FTE jobs per year
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission
 The effect on employment of the
various scenarios (2)
II. EURIMA Alternative Scenario
 EU 15 : The investments required amount to 25 billions
euros per year (or 2,8% of the 2004 turnover of the sector),
2,5 times greater than in the BAU scenario.
 Assumption : a range of 160 to 500 kiloeuros/year/FTE job
 Creation of 50 000 to 156 000 additional FTE jobs.
 10 new member States : Investments required amount to 4,7
billion euros per year (10,5% of the turnover)
 Assumption : 35 kiloeuros/year/FTE job
 Creation of 135 000 FTE new jobs
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission
 The effect on employment of the
various scenarios (3)
III. “FACTOR 4” alternative Scenario
 For a sample of 16 EU countries (13 billions m2, or 3/4 of
building stock EU25) : The investments required amount to
3 145 billions euros overall;
 137 billion euros/year if this program is spread between 2006
& 2030 (14 times greater than BAU Scenario),
 73 billion euros/year if this program between 2006 & 2050.
 Hypothesis : 53 kiloeuros/year/FTE job
 Accelerated implementation 2006-2030 : Creation of 2,6
millions new FTE jobs per year.
 Implementation over the period 2006-2050 : Creation of 1,4
millions new FTE jobs per year
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission
 The quality of new jobs
 Intensity of the work factor : job intensity of investment in
energy efficiency in the residential sector is higher than in
the other sectors and jobs can not be delocalised.
 The direct jobs created : equipments & materials
manufacturing, their installation & maintenance by large &
small companies in the construction sector, activities of
management, administration & control of energy-efficiency
investment programmes, service activities to optimise
energy savings : advice, energy audit, marketing, R&D.
 A maximum of jobs (50% to 90%) created in the first two
categories, i.e manual activities.
 The indirect jobs created :17 jobs for 100 new direct jobs
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission

The other social issues of the
improvement of energy efficiency in
the building stock
 The contribution of energy savings to the reduction
of energy poverty & social (re)insertion
 Training programmes in sufficient quantity & quality
must involve all the players in the enlarged
sustainable-building branch
 Building professionals and those in the thermal
material & equipment industries are generally averse
to change, innovation & continuing education
 Training provisions in the construction sector in EU
are generally narrow in scope & poorly financed
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission
 The issues of the workers’ training
 The public sector must play a key leadership role in implementing
demonstration training programmes.
 The demands on all initial & ongoing training measures are
twofold :
 To initiate & train people for occupations in environmental quality
in 3 indispensable areas : prior diagnostic techniques, knowledge
of all renewable energies & their specific conditions of use and
installation;
 Reorient or revise the contents in vocational training to emphasise
certain contents, for which the demand will be on the increase :
insulation & ventilation, heating grids, interior equipment.
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission
 P&M required in the training area
 Revise the content of initial professional training courses in
the construction sector
 A new priority for continuing education programmes
 Expand access to continuing education
 Training for project management occupations
 The issues around the emerging new profession of energy
auditor
 The issues around the creation of a basic and continuing
training scheme for the new emerging job of project
management assistant.
Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels
With the financial support of the European Commission

Thank you for your attention!
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