Download South-Eastern European Security - Outlook for 2007 and

"South-Eastern European
Security - Outlook for 2007 and
beyond"
Robert C Austin
University of Toronto
Main Trends
• Optimistic scenarios can finally prevail.
• Improved investment climate – race for
FDI may be on.
• Massive infrastructure improvements
• Improved personal security.
• Sustained enthusiasm for Euro-Atlantic
integration.
• Improved regional cooperation and
internal political stability.
Problems
•
•
•
•
•
•
Macedonia still a bi-national state.
Albania’s political polarization.
Multi-ethnicity still weak in Bosnia.
Serbia’s destiny unclear.
Kosovo factor.
Painfully slow nation/state building
process.
Kosovo and Serbia
• Serbia remains the key to security and
stability in the region.
• Independence for Kosovo will improve,
over the long run, the security situation.
• The process will be messy but further
delays invite problems.
• Independence is the cleanest and the only
way to normalize political life.
Kosovo
• NATO remains the most credible player there.
• Fragile economy.
• EU not necessarily a welcome replacement to
the UN.
• Low confidence in most international institutions.
• Elite not prepared for the “day after.”
• Haradinaj factor.
• Avoiding the Albanian scenario.
Way Ahead
• More needs to be done for Serbia.
• Sustained European perspective through
NATO and the EU.
• Sustained U.S. engagement in Kosovo.
• Gradual normalization of political life will
improve security and stability.
• Elite replacement remains critical.
• Kosovo leadership needs to develop a
vision.