Download Figure 12.1

Figure 12.1 American house prices; 12-month moving average, 1987 – 2012
300,000
USA: median price of new homes and ratio median price / median income
6
median house price (left scale)
5
ratio
median price
200,000
median house price divided by
median income level (right scale)
100,000
0
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
year
4
3
2012
Source: calculations based on data from US Census Bureau; median new house price in US dollars (not inflation
adjusted, 12-month moving average); monthly median income constructed from annual data; note that the righthand scale starts at three rather than zero.
Figure 12.2 Stock market index; monthly data, 1987 – August 2012
Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index
Internet bubble
60% decline
Great
Recession
57% decline
0
1987
1992
1997
2002
Source: OECD Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index, monthly data
2007
March 2009
June 2007
March 2003
March 2000
1
2012
Figure 12.3 Maximum loans by Federal Reserve to selected banks ($ bn),
2008-2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
Morgan Stanley
Citigroup
Bank of America
Royal Bank of Scotland
State Street Corp
UBS
Goldman Sachs
JP Morgan Chase
Deutsche Bank
Barclays
Source: van Marrewijk (2012); indicated are the largest loans to individual banks in billion US $; these occur at
different dates, but all are either in 2008 or in 2009.
Figure 12.4 Great Recession: real world trade flows (index), 1970 – July 2012
Real world trade flows; constant 2000 US dollar, index (2000 = 100)
Great Recession
20.1%
decline
160
120
6.8%
decline
80
40
0.3%
decline
2.8%
decline
1
0
1970
1975
annual monthly
data data
2
1980
4
3
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: calculations based on World Development Indicators online (world exports of goods and services in
constant 2000 US dollar; 1970-1991, annual data) and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
(volume of world merchandise exports; Jan 1991 – July 2012, monthly data); index (2000=100).
Figure 12.5 Trade volumes and the Great Recession; selected areas, 2004 –
July 2012
a. Import volume advanced economies
b. Import volume emerging markets
5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)
120
5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)
120
Asia
Latin America
Japan
100
100
Euro
area
80
Central
+ East
Europe
Africa +
Middle East
80
2008-8
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008-3
2008-10
2008-3
2007-2
USA
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data (volume of exports
and imports); see the main text for details; pre-2009 peaks indicated (square, circle, triangle).
Figure 12.5 Trade volumes and the Great Recession; selected areas, 2004 –
July 2012
c. Export volume advanced economies
d. Export volume emerging markets
5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)
5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)
120
120
USA
100
Asia
Latin
America
100
Africa +
Middle East
Euro area
Central
+ East
Europe
80
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008-9
60
2008-2
2008-6
2008-3
Japan
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data (volume of exports
and imports); see the main text for details; pre-2009 peaks indicated (square, circle, triangle).
Figure 12.6 Surprise! OECD’s changing world trade growth projections for 2009
OECD world trade growth projections for 2009 (% increase)
10
5
8.1
8.2
6.6
8.2
6.9
8.2
7.0
1.3
1.9
2.5
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
7.1
3.8
1.1
0
-5
-3.9
-10
-9.2
WEO 2007/2
-15
WEO 2008/1
-20
WEO 2008/2
WEO 2009/1
-25
-30
-35
Quarter 4
-32.1
Source: van Marrewijk (2012).
Figure 12.7 Industrial production; monthly growth rates, 2007 – July 2012
a. Industrial production advanced economies; growth rate, monthly data
40
31.95
30
Japan
20
10
0
2007
-10
2008
2009
2010
-40
2012
USA
Euro
area
earthquake
and tsunami
-20
-30
2011
April
2008
-34.27
Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data; growth rate of
industrial production in this month relative to the same month one year ago (%).
2013
Figure 12.7 Industrial production; monthly growth rates, 2007 – July 2012
b. Industrial production emerging markets; growth rate, monthly data
25
21.74
20
Asia
15
10
5
0
2007
-5
Africa & ME
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 Latin
2013
America
-10
-15
-17.12
C&E Europe
-20
Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data; growth rate of
industrial production in this month relative to the same month one year ago (%).
Figure 12.8 GDP per capita (PPP); countries with growth and decline (%),
2000-2011
GDP per capita PPP; countries with growth and decline (%), 2000-2011
100
90
80
70
countries with growth
60
50
40
30
20
10
countries with decline
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: author’s calculations based on data from World Development Indicators online; sample of 171 countries;
GDP per capita PPP in constant 2005 international $; countries with growth have per capita income this year
larger than previous year
Figure 12.9 USA retail and manufacturing sales; index (1992=100), 1992 – Aug
2012
USA retail and manufacturing sales; index, 1992 = 100
300
250
retail sales
200
150
manufacturing sales
100
50
0
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Source: based on data from US Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted sales, monthly ($ mn)
2013
Figure 12.10 USA inventory/sales ratio; index (period average = 100), 2002 –
Jul 2012
USA inventories / sales ratio; index relative to period average, monthly data
140
117.39
120
period average
100
inventories / sales ratio index
80
60
40
20
0
2002
January 2009
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: based on data from US Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted inventory/sales ratio for manufacturing and
trade, monthly data; index relative to period average
Figure 12.11 Government net lending / borrowing (% of GDP), 2012-2017
General government net lending / borrowing (% of GDP)
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
-2
Euro area
-4
-6
Japan
-6.4
-8
-10
-10.4
-12
USA
-14
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database
-13.0
realization prediction
Figure 12.12 Expected general government gross debt (% of GDP), 2012
General government gross debt (% of GDP), 2012
235.8
Japan
Greece
153.2
Italy
123.4
106.6
USA
Belgium
99.1
Euro area
90.0
France
89.0
UK
88.4
Canada
84.7
Spain
79.0
Germany
78.9
Austria
73.9
Netherlands
70.1
67.6
India
Brazil
65.1
Philippines
40.1
Australia
24.0
Indonesia
23.2
China
22.0
0
50
100
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database
150
200
250
Figure 12.13 Emerging markets; 20 largest foreign exchange reserves, mid
2011 ($bn)
Emerging markets; 20 largest foreign exchange reserves, mid 2011 (US $ bn)
China
3198
Saudi Arabia
508
Russia
484
Taiwan
401
Brazil
334
S Korea
311
India
288
Hong Kong
279
Singapore
249
Thailand
Source: based on
The Economist
(2011b).
179
Malaysia
134
Mexico
129
Indonesia
119
Poland
101
Turkey
94
Israel
78
Philippines
63
Hungary
54
Argentina
49
Peru
46
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Figure 12.14 Total factor productivity index; 1989 = 100, 1989-2011
TFP index
Total Factor Productivity; index 1989 = 100, 1989-2011
Finland
124
123
Germany
120
Netherlands
111
France
100
Italy
Spain
100
97
90
Greece
80
1989
1995
2001
2007
Source: author’s calculations based on Conference Board Total Economy Database
year
87
2013
Figure 12.15 Sovereign ratings in Europe since 2005; long-term foreign
currency
Sovereign ratings in Europe since 2005; long-term foreign currency
Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK
24
Spain
Italy
20
Ireland
16
Greece
Portugal
12
8
4
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: based on data from Fitch Ratings; ratings transformed to a scale from 0 (D) to 24 (AAA), at steps of one
in the 24 actual ratings given by Fitch (two more ratings than given in Table 12.4).
Figure 12.16 Sovereign ratings since 1997; long-term foreign currency
Sovereign ratings since 1997; long-term foreign currency, selected countries
Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK, USA
24
Japan
20
China
16
India
12
Nigeria
Brazil
8
Russia
4
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: based on data from Fitch Ratings; ratings transformed to a scale from 0 (D) to 24 (AAA), at steps of one
in the 24 actual ratings given by Fitch (two more ratings than given in Table 12.4).