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Association of Energy Engineers New York Chapter www.aeeny.org April 2009 Newsletter Part 1 Meeting Announcement | April 21: Wireless Technologies & Cutting-Edge Energy Applications Note: Monthly meetings take place at 1540 Broadway, 14th floor. The entrance is on the North side of 45th Street, east of Broadway. AEE visitors will be sent by security to the 14th floor. Concrete Is Remixed With Environment in Mind By Henry Fountain, NYTimes, Mar 31 09 Bill Alkofer for The New York Times BIG JOB The Minneapolis bridge uses concrete mixes tweaked for strength, durability and environmental SOARING ABOVE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER just east of downtown Minneapolis is one remarkable concrete job. There on Interstate 35W, the St. Anthony Falls Bridge carries 10 lanes of traffic on box girders borne by massive arching piers, which are supported, in turn, by footings and deep pilings. The bridge, built to replace one that collapsed in 2007, killing 13 people, is constructed almost entirely of concrete embedded with steel reinforcing bars, or rebar. But it is hardly a monolithic structure: the components are made from different concrete mixes, the recipes tweaked, as a chef would, for specific strength and durability requirements and to reduce the impact on the environment. One mix, incorporated in wavy sculptures at both ends of the bridge, is designed to stay gleaming white by scrubbing stain-causing pollutants from the air. The project, built for more than $230 million and finished in September, three months ahead of schedule, “might have been the most demanding concrete job in the United States in 2008,” said Richard D. Stehly, principal of American Engineering Testing, a Minneapolis firm that was involved in the project. It is a prime example of major changes in concrete production and use — changes that make use of basic research and are grounded, in part, in the need to reduce concrete’s carbon footprint. Concrete may seem an unlikely material for scientific advances. At its most basic, a block of concrete is something like a fruitcake, but even more leaden and often just as unloved. The fruit in the mix is coarse aggregate, usually crushed rock. Fine aggregate, usually sand, is a major component as well. Add water and something to help bind it all together — eggs in a fruitcake, Portland cement in concrete — mix well, pour into a form and let sit for decades. Let a lot of it sit. Every year, about a cubic yard of concrete is produced for each of the six-billion-plus people on the planet. Think of it this way. The stretch of sidewalk in front of your house? That is you and your spouse’s share. That concrete truck rumbling down the street? It holds a yard for each member of the New York Yankees’ starting lineup. Add the Mets and the Red Sox, and you have enough for the typical house foundation and basement floor. But those are small projects. The St. Anthony Falls Bridge used about 50,000 yards of concrete. Hoover Dam used more than three million. And the Three Gorges project in China contains more than a yard for every man, woman and child in Canada, population 33 million. All that concrete may seem the same. And the basic product did remain relatively unchanged since the invention of Portland cement in the early 1800s. (The ancient Romans made concrete, too, but from volcanic ash.) Producers have always tinkered with the mix to find the right proportions of concrete’s basic ingredients, but the recipe never varied much. Now the experimentation is more elaborate, designed to tailor the concrete to the need. Increasingly, that need includes the environment. Aesthetic considerations aside, concrete is environmentally ugly. The manufacturing of Portland cement is responsible for about 5 percent of human-caused emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. “The new twist over the last 10 years has been to try to avoid materials that generate CO2,” said Kevin A. MacDonald, vice president for engineering services of the Cemstone Products Company, the concrete supplier for the I-35W bridge. In his mixes, Dr. MacDonald replaced much of the Portland cement with two industrial waste products — fly ash, left over from burning coal in power plants, and blast-furnace slag. Both are what are called pozzolans, reactive materials that help make the concrete stronger. Because the CO2 emissions associated with them are accounted for in electricity generation and steel making, they also help reduce the concrete’s carbon footprint. Some engineers and scientists are going further, with the goal of developing concrete that can capture and permanently sequester CO2 from power plants or other sources, so it cannot contribute to the warming of the planet. Given the numbers, the possibilities for carbon sequestration are enormous. The United States concrete industry’s big annual trade show, held in Las Vegas each winter, is called World of Concrete, and for good 2 reason. Concrete is made and used just about everywhere, with China responsible for half the world’s production. In the making of concrete, the Portland cement and water form a paste in which a series of reactions occur, hardening the paste and locking the aggregates within it. Those reactions use up the water — concrete doesn’t “dry out” through evaporation — and produce heat. They also make the product caustic. While most of the strengthening occurs in the first few days and weeks, the process can continue for years, as long as there is a little moisture around. Michelle L. Wilson, director of concrete knowledge for the Portland Cement Association, a trade group, described a hydrating cement particle this way: “It’s not a piece of popcorn, it’s not popping from the inside out. It’s more like a jawbreaker — as the water hits it, the hydration is in layers from the outside in. You can continue to hydrate that jawbreaker down.” Just as a dose of brandy or other extra ingredient can improve a fruitcake, concrete can be modified by adding other materials and chemicals. The recipes have become much more sophisticated, said Jay Shilstone, a concrete consultant in Plano, Tex. “It used to be that the chemicals added to concrete were soaps or sugars — very simple,” Mr. Shilstone said. “Now we’re doing designer chemicals to work on specific components.” Some chemicals make wet concrete flow better into a form’s nooks and crannies without separating. Others prevent the cement particles from flocking together, so the amount of water can be reduced — which means that less cement is needed as well. Chemicals can be added to slow the reactions to give contractors more time to work with the wet concrete. Isocyanates and other catalysts can speed the reactions up, if the concrete needs to reach a certain strength in a short time. Increasingly engineers are also paying attention to the internal structure of the concrete to improve strength and reduce permeability. “There’s been a major push to look at the particle size distribution,” Mr. Shilstone said. Although powdery, on a microscopic scale cement actually consists of relatively large grains. So researchers are looking at even smaller particles, “microproducts that can go in and do magical things with the cement matrix,” Mr. Shilstone said. Dr. MacDonald added a small percentage of silica fume, another industrial waste material, to the mix for the bridge’s box girders, to make the concrete more impermeable to road salt, which corrodes rebar, eventually destroying concrete from within. One large cement producer, the Italcementi Group, adds titanium dioxide particles to one of its products. The cement makes the concrete white by acting as a catalyst under sunlight to break down organic pollutants in the air. “It speeds up the natural oxidation process,” said Dan Schaffer, a product manager for an Italcementi subsidiary, Essroc, which supplied the cement for the I-35W bridge sculptures. Some researchers want to eventually eliminate Portland cement entirely and replace it with other cements to produce zero-carbon, or even carbon-negative, concrete. Portland cement is at the heart of concrete’s environmental problems. About a ton of CO2 is emitted for every ton of cement produced. The basic manufacturing process involves burning limestone and other minerals at about 2,700 degrees Fahrenheit to create an intermediate product called clinker. “Essentially, we’re trying to make the same minerals that they did in 1825,” said Mr. Stehly, who is head of a committee addressing sustainability issues at the American Concrete Institute. 3 The cement industry, particularly in the United States and Europe, has reduced CO2 emissions through the use of more efficient kilns and processes, and is now allowed to add some ground unburned limestone to the clinker, reducing the actual cement in the mix. But about half of the CO2 from cement cannot be eliminated — it is produced in the reaction, called calcination, that occurs as the limestone (which consists of calcium carbonate) is being burned. So to reduce concrete’s carbon footprint to near zero or less, different approaches are needed. Novacem, a British startup, is developing a cement that does not use carbonates and can make concrete that absorbs carbon dioxide. Carbon Sense Solutions, in Halifax, Nova Scotia, wants to bubble CO2 through wet cement, sequestering the gas through carbonation (a process that occurs naturally, though very slowly, under normal conditions). At a site adjacent to a gas-fired electricity generation plant in Moss Landing, Calif., the Calera Corporation is developing a process to bubble power plant flue gases through seawater or other brackish water, using the CO2 in the gases to precipitate carbonate minerals for use as cement or aggregates in concrete. The process mimics, to some extent, what corals and other calcifying marine organisms do. Calera calculates that producing a ton of these minerals consumes half a ton of CO2, so the resulting concrete could potentially be carbon negative — sequestering carbon dioxide permanently. Brent R. Constantz, the company’s founder, has a background in cements, having made specialty products for use in orthopedic surgery. But he does not describe Calera as a cement company. “We’re primarily driven by the need to capture large amounts of CO2 and sequester it,” he said. The company probably will begin by making aggregate, because the barriers to making a commercially acceptable product are lower than with cement. Even with aggregate, any new product must meet standards and must be accepted by the concrete industry, which can be conservative. “Any time you introduce anything new,” Dr. Constantz said, “it’s a challenge.” Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company Current NY Chapter AEE Sponsors: The New York Chapter of AEE would like to thank our corporate sponsors who help underwrite our activities. Please take a moment to visit their websites and learn more about them: Duane Morris LLP Constellation Energy Innoventive Power Association for Energy Affordability R3 Energy Management If you or your firm is interested in sponsoring the New York Chapter of AEE, please contact Jeremy Metz at [email protected]. 4 Do New Bulbs Save Energy if They Don’t Work? By Leora Broydo Vestal, NY Times, Mar 28 09 SAN FRANCISCO — It sounds like such a simple thing to do: buy some new light bulbs, screw them in, save the planet. But a lot of people these days are finding the new compact fluorescent bulbs anything but simple. Consumers who are trying them say they sometimes fail to work, or wear out early. At best, people discover that using the bulbs requires learning a long list of dos and don’ts. Take the case of Karen Zuercher and her husband, in San Francisco. Inspired by watching the movie “An Inconvenient Truth,” they decided to swap out nearly every incandescent bulb in their home for energysaving compact fluorescents. Instead of having a satisfying green moment, however, they wound up coping with a mess. “Here’s my sad collection of bulbs that didn’t work,” Ms. Zuercher said the other day as she pulled a cardboard box containing defunct bulbs from her laundry shelf. One of the 16 Feit Electric bulbs the Zuerchers bought at Costco did not work at all, they said, and three others died within hours. The bulbs were supposed to burn for 10,000 hours, meaning they should have lasted for years in normal use. “It’s irritating,” Ms. Zuercher said. Irritation seems to be rising as more consumers try compact fluorescent bulbs, which now occupy 11 percent of the nation’s eligible sockets, with 330 million bulbs sold every year. Consumers are posting vociferous complaints on the Internet after trying the bulbs and finding them lacking. Bulb makers and promoters say the overall quality of today’s compact fluorescents is high. But they also concede that it is difficult to prevent some problem bulbs from slipping through. Experts say the quality problems are compounded by poor package instructions. Using the bulbs incorrectly, like screwing low-end bulbs into fixtures where heat is prone to build up, can greatly shorten their lives. Some experts who study the issue blame the government for the quality problems, saying an intensive federal push to lower the price essentially backfired by encouraging manufacturers to use cheap components. “In the pursuit of the holy grail, we stepped on the consumer,” said Michael Siminovitch, director of a lighting center at the University of California, Davis. Compact fluorescents once cost as much as $30 apiece. Now they go for as little as $1 — still more than regular bulbs, but each compact fluorescent is supposed to last 10 times longer, save as much as $5.40 a bulb each year in electricity, and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from burning coal in power plants. Much of the credit for that sharp cost decline goes to the Energy Department. The agency asked manufacturers in 1998 to create cheaper models and then helped find large-volume buyers, like universities and utilities, to buy them. That jump-started a mass market and eventually led to sales of discounted bulbs at retailers like Costco, Wal-Mart Stores and Home Depot. Consumers are supposed to be able to protect themselves by buying bulbs certified under the government’s Energy Star program. But experts and some environmental groups complain that Energy Star standards are weak, permitting low-quality bulbs with too high a level of mercury, a toxic metal contained in all compact fluorescents. 5 “The standard essentially establishes a floor, which sorts out the junk, with the expectation that the rest is good,” Mr. Siminovitch said. “It’s not.” The government, which will begin enforcing tighter specifications this year, says it must seek a balance between quality and affordability to achieve its goal of getting millions of additional consumers to install the bulbs. “Something that is perfect but not affordable wouldn’t serve the broad interests,” said Peter Banwell, the Energy Department’s manager of product marketing for Energy Star. Alan Feit, vice president of Feit Electric, says he does not think the problems experienced by the Zuerchers indicate an overall quality problem with his bulbs. But he acknowledged the difficulty of keeping tight quality control on a cheap, mass-market item. “There are 40 to 50 components that go into these things,” Mr. Feit said. “While manufacturers try to inspect all incoming materials, one little mistake may cause a performance problem.” Victor Roberts, an independent expert in Burnt Hills, N.Y., who conducts failure analysis testing on compact fluorescents, suspects that some suppliers — many of them in China — are using substandard components. “Somebody decides to save a little money somewhere,” he said, “and suddenly we have hundreds of thousands of failures.” The Program for the Evaluation and Analysis of Residential Lighting at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, N.Y., tests Energy Star-certified bulbs to see if they still meet requirements. In the 2007-8 tests, five of 29 models failed to meet specifications for such categories as lifespan, luminosity and on-off cycling and were removed from Energy Star’s list of qualified products. Because of performance concerns, the government is expanding the watchdog program, vowing to test samples of 20 percent of the thousands of certified bulb models each year. In California, where bulbs have been heavily encouraged, utilities have concluded that they will not be able to persuade a majority of consumers to switch until compact fluorescents get better. That is prompting them to develop specifications for a better bulb. The effort aims to address the most consumer complaints: poor dimming, slow warm-up times, shortened bulb life because of high temperatures inside enclosed fixtures, and dissatisfaction with the color of the light. “Because of the aggressive goals in California, we have to be pushing the envelope at all times,” said Roland Risser, director of customer efficiency at Pacific Gas and Electric. Experts and bulb manufacturers say that consumers need to play a role in solving the problems by learning more about the limitations of compact fluorescent bulbs. The Federal Trade Commission has begun to study whether it should force improvements in the labels of the bulbs. Better labels might have helped the Zuerchers, the San Francisco couple. Initially, they put regular compact fluorescents in virtually every socket in their home, including enclosed ceiling lamps, dimmable fixtures and areas where lights are turned on and off frequently. But some of those applications require specialized, more expensive bulbs, something the Zuerchers say was not made clear on the label of their Feit bulbs or on any sign they saw posted at Costco. “We’re both college-educated and pay attention to labels we read,” Ms. Zuercher said. “It feels like someone forgot to put a place to find the information.” Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company ADVERTISEMENTS (next page) 6 HEATING – VENTILATING – AIR CONDITIONING - MAINTENANCE TRYSTATE Mechanical Inc. Joseph Colella, V.P. Operations 471 McLean Avenue, Yonkers, NY 10705 Tel: 914-963-6120 Fax: 914-963-0428 The Superintendents Technical Association (aka the Supers Club) is the first technical society of multifamily building maintenance personnel. For free e-mail edition of monthly newsletter, visit our Web site: www.nycSTA.org or ask Dick Koral, Secretary [email protected] Syska Hennessy Group, Inc. 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Montebello, NY 10901-3937 March Chaper Meeting Notes March 17, 2009: Rit Aggarwala, Director, NYC Mayor’s Office of Long Term Planning and Sustainability, discussed how the Mayor’s PlaNYC initiative is looking into opportunities to implement energy efficiency and climate change for not only City-owned buildings, but to buildings city-wide. The Mayor is coordinating a Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, which is working with local stakeholders, looking into improving the City’s resilience to climate change. The task force is also looking for opportunities where building codes for energy efficiency may be updated. Rit suggested that certain buildings in the future may be responsible for conducting energy audits and be mandated to make investments for energy efficiency deemed to have a reasonable payback time (around 5 years). Alice Miller, Chief of Consumer Advocacy, Office of Consumer Services at the New York State Public Service Commission discussed the New York State Energy Plan. Specifically, she discussed the administration of the State’s Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS), the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and how these two programs contribute to the Governor’s 45x15 goal. The 45x15 goal represents the State’s Administrative rule that requires (on average) the State’s electricity demand be met with 30% renewable energy by 2015, and that demand be reduced 15% below projected 2015 levels. Staff from NYSERDA, who were in the audience, also offered an email address where individuals and companies can learn about NYSERDA funding opportunities from the Stimulus package: [email protected]; and a NY State website being used to track all economic recovery projects (and funding opportunities): www.economicrecovery.ny.gov. Of Clean Tech and Thomas Edison By Kate Galbraith, NYTimes, March 24, 2009 Edison promoted the light bulb as a substitute for gas lamps, but it was dismissed as uneconomic and impractical. Sound familiar? http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/of-clean-tech-and-thomas-edison/index.html?nl=tech&emc=tech 8 snopes.com: Bakken Formation Claim: Article provides information about untapped oil reserves in the Bakken formation. MIXTURE OF TRUE AND FALSE INFORMATION Example: [Collected via e-mail, May 2008] Just poking around the Internet recently, I simply "Googled" the search "Untapped U.S. Oil Reserves," and the result (like the current price of a gallon of gas - BLEW ME AWAY! Go ahead, take a minute and see for youself! Never mind, I'll share some of the highlights I found. 1. Ever heard of the Bakken Formation? GOOGLE it. I did, and again, BLEW my mind. The U.S. Geological Service issued a report in April ('08) that only scientists and oilmen/women knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since '95) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota; western South Dakota; and extreme eastern Montana ... check THIS out: The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable ... at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion. "When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea." says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst. "This sizeable find is now the highestproducing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years," reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the "Bakken." And it stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada. For years, U.S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the "Big Oil" companies gave up searching for major oil! wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL! That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 41 years straight. 2. And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from TWO YEARS AGO, people! U.S. Oil Discovery - Largest Reserve in the World! Stansberry Report Online - 4/20/2006 Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. What the!? They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates: o 8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia o 18 times as much oil as Iraq o 21 times as much oil as Kuwait o 22 times as much oil as Iran o 500 times as much oil as Yemen and it's all right here in the Western United States. 9 HOW can this BE!? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this!? Because we've not DEMANDED Legislation to come out of Washington allowing its extraction, that's why! James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East - more than 2 TRILLION barrels. Untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post. Don't think "Big Oil" will drop its price - even with this find? Think again! It's all about the competitive marketplace, and if they can extract it (here) for less, they can afford to sell it for less - and if they DON'T, others will. It will come down - it has to. Got your attention fired up yet? Hope so! Now, while you're thinking about it ... and hopefully P.O'd, do this: 3. Take 5-10 minutes and compose an e-mail; fax or good old-fashioned letter to our elected officials in Washington ... and their respected leaders. We'll start with them, and here's how you can send them your e-mail/fax, DEMANDING the immediate Legislation/an Energy PLAN that calls for tapping into these (OUR OWN!) Reserves, as well as allowing for the offshore drilling for OUR oil, in OUR offshore waters and Inter-continental shelf ... not to mention Alaska. Technology ain't what it used to be people (ever had arthroscopic surgery?). They can surgically extract OUR oil, and get us on the way to at least some measure of Energy independence. Origins: This item about untapped oil reserves in the Bakken formation (which lies within portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana) appears to have been taken from a tout sheet intended to sell subscriptions to an investment newsletter. It is vaguely true in the sense that geologists have estimated there is a good deal of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in that area, and as the price of crude oil increases and the technology for extracting resources from formations like Bakken improves, that area becomes more and more economically viable as a source of oil for the U.S. However, the estimate of over 500 billion barrels of oil to be recovered from the Bakken formation is an overly optimistic one based on incomplete, outdated information. A November 2006 report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that: With new horizontal drilling and completion technology taken into account, the technically recoverable resource base for the entire Bakken Formation is potentially much larger. A draft study by the late organic geochemist Leigh Price provides estimates ranging from 271 to 503 billion barrels (mean of 413 billion) of potential resources in place. The study represents Dr. Price's work as it stood at the time of his death in August 2000. It was conducted while he was working for the USGS, but it did not receive a complete scientific peer review by the USGS and was not published as a USGS product. A new assessment of the entire basin, due out in about a year, will provide an updated USGS estimate of the technically recoverable oil resources in the Bakken Formation. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released its assessment of undiscovered oil resources in the Bakken formation in April 2008, and although it reported a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that could be recovered from that area compared to its 1995 estimate, the 2008 USGS estimate was still far short of the 503 billion barrel volume cited above: North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation. A U.S. Geological Survey assessment, released April 10, shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency's 1995 estimate of 151 million barrels of oil. 10 New geologic models applied to the Bakken Formation, advances in drilling and production technologies, and recent oil discoveries have resulted in these substantially larger technically recoverable oil volumes. About 105 million barrels of oil were produced from the Bakken Formation by the end of 2007. The USGS estimate of 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil has a mean value of 3.65 billion barrels. Scientists conducted detailed studies in stratigraphy and structural geology and the modeling of petroleum geochemistry. They also combined their findings with historical exploration and production analyses to determine the undiscovered, technically recoverable oil estimates. Certainly 3.65 billion barrels of recoverable oil is nothing to sneeze at, but a little perspective is in order. The U.S. currently imports an average of about 10 million barrels of oil per day (for a total of about 3.65 billion barrels of oil per year), so even if all the estimated undiscovered oil in the Bakken formation were extracted today, it would only be enough to wean the U.S. off of crude oil imports for one year. That's still a good thing, but it's not nearly "enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 41 years straight" as claimed above. As for the second part of the article, a 2005 study co-authored by James T. Bartis for the RAND Corporation (a nonprofit research organization) noted that estimates had placed upper range of shale oil resources to be found within the Green River Formation range of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming at between 1.5 and 1.8 trillion barrels. However, the report also stated that not all of that oil was recoverable and offered a midpoint estimate of about 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil shale resources. Moreover, the report also noted that even under "high growth assumptions," an oil shale production level of 1 million barrels per day (about 10% of the amount of oil the U.S. curren-tly imports daily) is "probably more than 20 years in the future," and depends upon scientists overcoming some substantial obstacles first: But development of the resource hinges on overcoming economic, technical and environ-mental obstacles, Bartis said. "No work has been done on the impacts of development and ways to mitigate those impacts," he said. For example, shale development requires large expenditures of water and energy, produces air pollution and carbon emissions and leaves toxic byproducts that could endanger the environment. Last updated: 27 March 2009 The URL for this page is <http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp> Melting Arctic Ice may Unlock Energy, Ore and Shipping Lanes Faster shipping, vast new energy resources - what's not to love about the melting ice cap? By Dough Tsuruok, Investor’s Business Daily, Mar 23 09 WHETHER IT'S FROM GLOBAL WARMING OR NATURAL CYCLES, the seas near the Arctic Circle have been mostly open to shipping traffic since 2007 - though ice levels unexpectedly rose last summer. Ships are hindered only by seasonal ice floes that are getting easier to penetrate. "You can argue about the causal factors but there's no question that the Arctic is melting," said Rob Huebert, associate director of the Center for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary. Companies and countries are waking up to the commercial opportunities. "The world is realizing that there's another underutilized ocean and a treasure trove of resources out there," Huebert said. The grab for oil and materials in these frigid wastes is also stirring territorial disputes and a build up of Arctic military capabilities by various nations. The House Foreign Affairs Committee has set a March 25 hearing on how climate change could affect Arctic security. Northwest Passage The Arctic takes in the northern reaches of Canada, Russia, Alaska, Greenland and Scandinavia, 11 covering one-sixth of the earth's surface. One of the biggest business upsides is that the fabled Northwest Passage linking Europe with Asia is now a reality. Explorers centuries ago hunted for a route through the Arctic Ocean along the northern coast of North America to Asia. But they couldn't break through the solid ice near the North Pole. Now, a large part of the year-round ice is gone. This is opening shipping lanes that may alter global trade patterns and manufacturing in a big way. About 12-20 vessels are passing through the Northwest Passage annually. An estimated 200 have already made the trip. The day may not be far off when cargoes of finished goods from China sail through the Arctic to Europe, saving time and fuel. Arctic expert Rockford Weitz cites studies by U.S. government agencies and others that predict the permanent ice sheet that covers the top of the world may largely disappear by 2020. "Some say it may happen by 2013 - which is only four years away," Weitz said. The credit crunch and territorial claims by interested nations may temporarily stymie use of the Arctic. But many experts say it's an idea whose time has come. "Airlines fly over the Arctic all the time; maritime ships never tried because of the ice - that will change," Weitz said. Weitz leads the Arctic Futures Initiative, an executive consulting service that advises on Arctic issues. He says moving cargo from China or Japan to Europe via Russia's Arctic Sea route could lop 20%-24% off the distance from regular routes. Products, parts and resources will move faster, changing the global supply chain for the better. "You can shorten distribution times and the amount of inventory stored in advance," Weitz said. Big energy and mining firms from the U.S., Russia, Canada and Scandinavia are building or eyeing Arctic port facilities that would have been blocked a few decades ago. Such ports make it easier to access, process and remove a mother lode of oil, gas, mineral and fishery resources from the Arctic. Until now, the bulk of these resources moved from north to south by truck or pipeline until they reached a useable port or railhead. Heating Up Energy The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Arctic holds up to 90 billion barrels of untapped oil. They also reckon the region holds as much as 1.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of liquid natural gas. Those gas reserves would equal all the proven reserves in (non-Arctic) Russia. Oil-bearing sands in Canada's Arctic promise another source of energy if cost-effective ways to extract it can be found, given the current volatility in oil prices. "It's feasible to extract Athabasca oil sands if oil is at $60 a barrel, but not at $40 a barrel," said energy consultant Kevin Coates. Oil prices rose $3.47 to $51.61 on Thursday, the highest close since Nov. 28. The sharp drop from last July's peak above $147 has cooled plans to exploit Arctic energy and other resources. But analysts say interest will rebound once the world economy recovers. A 2007 Russian government report estimated that there's nearly $2 trillion worth of mineral ore just in Russia's portion of the Arctic. Big mines already operate in Canada, Alaska and Russia near the Arctic Circle. Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel miner, operates in the Russian Arctic. It ships its ore via the Kara Sea, which is part of the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia. Alaska's Red Dog Mine is the world's largest zinc operation. It's just north of the Bering Strait and is run by mining company Teck Cominco. Greenland, a partly autonomous part of Denmark, is another potentially mineral-rich area. The glacier 12 that covers the island is receding, allowing for intensive surveying. Gazprom, the world's biggest gas company, is one of the biggest players in exploiting Arctic energy resources. So is Lukoil, Russia's largest oil company. Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil have long been involved in developing energy reserves in Alaska and other Arctic areas. Pioneer Natural Resources, a large Dallas-based independent oil and gas producer, also invests heavily in Alaska. Shell, French oil firm Total and Chevron are developing the Shtokman field in Russia's Arctic, one of the world's largest natural gas fields, with Gazprom. And Norway's national company Statoil is engaged in various oil exploration and technology projects in the Arctic. Analysts say much of the gas and oil in the Arctic is underwater, requiring complex offshore drilling technology - something that Norwegian and Russian firms excel at. Timber And Fish, Too Russia also boasts huge timber reserves in Siberia and other northern areas. The nation's backward roads made it hard to extract this lumber. But analysts say shipping it to Asia and Europe through Arctic seas is viable. The rivers in these timber-rich areas all run north. So logs could be floated by river to the Arctic Ocean where they could be picked up by ships. On the fishery side, the parting ice up north is revealing a bonanza of cod, Alaskan pollock, Arctic char and other species. With once-rich fishing grounds in Europe, Asia and the U.S. depleted, Arctic seas offer new sources of fish and other sea food. Most fish sold at U.S. fast-food outlets comes from Arctic waters. But legal disputes regarding ownership of the Arctic resources and sea lanes are heating up. Russia, Norway, Canada, the U.S. and others are laying claim to Arctic assets. Huebert says they're also quietly beefing up submarine and other naval capability in Arctic waters. One sticking point is the Northwest Passage. The U.S. maintains that the route lies in international waters, while Canada says it belongs to them. Under the Law of the Sea Treaty defining national rights in using the world's oceans, nations have the right to extend their exclusive economic zones from 200 miles to up to 350 miles offshore if they can prove that these underwater areas are part of their continental shelf. The U.S. is yet to ratify the treaty. Weitz says the potential for disputes is underscored since the Arctic Ocean has the longest continental shelf of any ocean in the world. Anne Korin, a co-director of the Institute for Global Security in Washington, D.C., says such disputes are becoming common in a world where governments are tussling to control energy or other resources. She warns that multinationals may hesitate to invest more capital in Arctic ventures until the issue of "who owns what" is settled. © Copyright 2009 Investor's Business Daily. Earth Hour 2009 was an amazing success, said its sponsors, who wanted to thank you for your support. Lights went out in 4,085 cities in 88 countries in what is being described as the largest demonstration of public concern about climate change in history. 13 NY Chapter AEE Board Members David Ahrens [email protected] Michael Bobker [email protected] Timothy Daniels [email protected] Jack Davidoff [email protected] Fredric Goldner [email protected] Placido Impollonia [email protected] Dick Koral [email protected] John Leffler [email protected] Robert Meier [email protected] Jeremy Metz [email protected] John Nettleton [email protected] Chris Young [email protected] Asit Patel [email protected] Board Members Emeritus Paul Rivet [email protected] George Kritzler [email protected] Alfred Greenberg [email protected] George Birman 718- 677-9077x110 646-660-6977 212- 312-3770 718- 963-2556 516- 481-1455 212-669-7628 718- 552-1161 212-868-4660x218 914-734-7800x208 212-338-6405 212-340-2937 914-442- 4387 718- 292-6733x205 914-422-4387 Past Presidents Mike Bobker (2003-05), Asit Patel (2000-03), Thomas Matonti (1998-99), Jack Davidoff (1997-98), Fred Goldner (1993-96), Peter Kraljic (1991-92), George Kritzler (1989-90), Alfred Greenberg (1982-89), Murray Gross (1981-82), Herbert Kunstadt (1980-81), Sheldon Liebowitz (1978-80) FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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