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PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE Project Name Region Sector Project ID Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Environment Category Date PID Prepared Date of Appraisal Authorization Date of Board Approval Report No.: AB5513 Capacity-Building for Palestinian Economic and Regulatory Institutions MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA General public administration sector (50%); General finance sector (50%) P118560 PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION (for the benefit of the Palestinian Authority) Ministry of Finance of the Palestinian Authority [ ] A [ ] B [X] C [ ] FI [ ] TBD (to be determined) April 21, 2010 March 10, 2010 June 15, 2010 1. Country and Sector Background The Palestinian Authority (PA) has made significant progress in building institutional capacity, including passing some of the most progressive economic and social laws in the Arab world. While the political and economic crisis resulting from the election of Hamas and the consequent withdrawal of direct donor support in 2006 nearly led to the collapse of the PA and reversed some of the earlier institutional development, the government led by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad since 2008 has restored and strengthened key institutions. A series of reforms including the establishment of the Central Treasury Account (CTA), the formation of an internal audit function and the timely publication of public financial information, has put the PA’s public financial management ahead of many countries in the region. Further development of Palestinian economic and regulatory institutions is needed. There is a need for sustained momentum on reforms as the political environment becomes more precarious and the peace talks have stalled. The PA’s 2009 report ‘Building Palestine: Enabling the Institutions of a Modern State’ gives a high priority to building capable institutions for economic independence and national prosperity, and notes that ‘The Government is committed to building effective institutions, consolidating the rule of law and serving its citizens’. Growth in West Bank/Gaza (WBG) accelerated in 2009 and initial estimates suggest real growth reached 6.8% - well above the 5% projected in the PA’s 2009 budget. Most of the growth was in the West Bank, where the IMF and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimates real GDP growth was 8.5%. However, despite the continued closure of Gaza, growth there was still estimated to be positive at about 1%. Initially PCBS estimated real growth for WBG in 2008 at 2.3%, which would be a real per capita decline in GDP. However, they have recently issued revised estimates that put real growth in 2008 at about 5.9%, implying an increase in per capita GDP. Thus, the 2009 performance is the third consecutive year of per capita GDP growth and may signal that at least the West Bank economy is beginning to recover after years of decline. Yet growth is still less than what might be expected from an economy recovering from such a low base. 1 Despite the growth in the West Bank, the PA’s fiscal position remains precarious. In 2009, the PA’s recurrent budget deficit was nearly $1.6 billion, about $143 million more than its revised budget projections. Net revenues were $32 million less than projected and spending was almost $110 million more than budgeted. The PA managed to increase tax revenues by nearly 10% more than projected in the budget. However, non-tax revenues were about $70 million less than expected. In addition, despite the economic growth, clearance revenues were off by nearly $20 million. The fall in clearance revenues can largely be attributed to the situation in Gaza, including its complete closure in the first quarter of 2009. The PA continues to require large amounts of donor funding and in 2009 received nearly $1.35 billion in budget support. The 2009 budget was seen as a major step towards increasing the quality of the budget by shifting donor resources from recurrent budget support to development financing. The 2010 budget has not yet been published; however, the PA has stated that it hopes to hold its recurrent deficit to $1.2 billion by increasing domestic revenues by nearly 18 percent and controlling spending. This would be a significant step towards improving the PA’s fiscal position but may be difficult to do if the situation in Gaza does not improve. This proposed project would build the capacity of leading Palestinian institutions in statistics, financial sector, and pensions, to implement the Palestinian Reform and Development Plan (PRDP) and improve the PA’s fiscal position. 2. Objectives The project development objective is to build the capacity of leading economic and regulatory institutions, in order to support the implementation of the PRDP. Capacity building support to the proposed implementing partners would contribute to achieving this goal as laid out below: (i) Strengthening the capability of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) to provide accurate and timely economic data is critical to sound policy making by the PA. The National Accounts estimates produced by PCBS underpin the budgetary process and allow the PA and its partners to measure the effectiveness of their efforts. The sub-component on National Accounts will allow PCBS to both produce more accurate estimates and extend its estimates to critical areas such as making quarterly estimates for the income side. The quality control sub-component will increase the quality and accuracy of all PCBS estimates by improving the sampling and survey methodologies used throughout PCBS. The planned Agricultural Census will provide much needed data for the Ministry of Agriculture’s strategy, and support efforts to promote the agricultural economy. In addition, providing a baseline for the agricultural sector will improve the accuracy of National Accounts estimates. Finally, the technical assistance on poverty estimation will assist PCBS to produce more accurate poverty estimates on a timely basis. (ii) A capable and effective banking sector regulator is essential to ensure that the risks and challenges facing the Palestinian banking sector are managed and that further progress is made. The financial sector, dominated by banks, is closely linked to economic growth, and to the feasibility of the PRDP’s private sector-led economic growth strategy. This project would build capacity to facilitate the Palestinian Monetary Authority’s (PMA) eventual transition to a fullfledged central bank. The PMA intends to develop capacity to be able to conduct an independent monetary policy to maintain price stability. This objective necessitates the building up of reserve management, monetary operations, and monetary and financial market analysis which are fundamental functions of a modern central bank. Through its Banking supervision and Research and Monetary Policy departments, the PMA can promote financial stability, and inform macroeconomic monitoring, forecasting and policy, as well as monetary policy. The PMA’s role 2 in ensuring that donors can provide funding to the PA and to Gaza, without risk of funds being diverted to unintended uses, helps ensure substantial donor funding in support of the PRDP. (iii) The 2008-2011 PRDP reiterated the PA’s commitment to strengthen its fiscal position. The proposed technical assistance would enable the Palestinian Pension Authority (PPA) to more effectively manage all civil service pension schemes in West Bank and Gaza, in a more transparent and sustainable manner. It would enable the PPA to put in place an automated system to effectively manage all civil service pension schemes, including providing updated individual pension records for all participants in a more transparent and timely manner. It would strengthen the PPA’s capacity to support the PA in implementing its pension reform action plan (parametric and systemic reforms of the 4 ongoing pensions schemes), including through providing information to the highest levels of government on projected future pension liabilities and their detrimental consequences on future economic growth in WBG. Strengthening the PPA’s capacity to help implement pension reforms could improve the PA’s fiscal position, through reform of the unsustainable pension system that otherwise could threaten the fiscal viability of a future Palestinian government. 3. Rationale for Bank Involvement The Bank’s Interim Strategy for West Bank & Gaza envisages technical assistance to support the implementation of the Palestinian Reform and Development Plan (PRDP), and advisory services for implementation of the ongoing economic reforms program. The ultimate goal of the PRDP is to create the institutional infrastructure of a Palestinian state. This capacity-building project would strengthen the capacity of key Palestinian institutions to help achieve that objective. The Bank has supported the PRDP through two development policy grants (DPGs) aimed at (i) strengthening the PA’s fiscal position; and (ii) improving public financial management. A third development policy grant that would maintain the same objectives is under consideration. This proposed technical assistance grant compliments these DPGs by helping to build institutional capacity in areas that are critical to the implementation of the PRDP. Strengthening the selected institutions will increase the PA’s ability to manage the economy and create opportunities for growth, and improve its fiscal position, which will allow the PA to be less reliant on external assistance. The Bank has existing advisory or technical assistance relationships with each institution, and each has strategic plans in place or under development that merit capacity-building support for implementation. These proposed implementing partners were agreed with the Ministry of Finance as priorities for technical assistance, and appropriate candidates for inclusion in the project. 4. Description The project would fulfill the project development objective through providing capacity-building support to three of leading Palestinian economic and regulatory institutions. The project is composed of 4 components: Component 1: PCBS - Strengthening the capability of PCBS to provide accurate and timely economic data, and to implement the first Agricultural Census. Component 2: PMA - Supporting the development of PMA capacity to effectively regulate the financial sector, promote financial stability, conduct monetary policy, and inform macroeconomic monitoring. 3 Component 3: PPA - Strengthening the PPA’s capacity to more effectively manage civil service pension schemes in West Bank and Gaza, and to implement reforms. Component 4: Project Management – Financing expenditures related to project management 5. Financing Source: Borrower Special Financing Total ($m.) 0 3.7 3.7 6. Implementation The PA, through the Ministry of Finance, will lead project implementation. The project coordination unit at the MOF will coordinate project implementation by the implementing agencies, providing financial management and consolidated reporting for the components, progress monitoring, and centralized procurement. The project coordination function would therefore build on existing PA capacity, rather than being set-up separately. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) Project Coordination Unit (PCU) is currently managing the World Bank-funded Third Emergency Services Support Project and the corresponding Multi-Donor Trust Fund. A Project Implementation Manual will be drafted by the MOF with consultant support, which will cover its relationship with the implementing partners. It will outline the respective roles and responsibilities of the MOF and the implementing partners, and the flow of documents and reporting. It will cover reporting, monitoring and evaluation, financial management and procurement. Implementing partners will be responsible for managing the technical assistance in line with the signed contracts. Implementing partners have prepared Terms of Reference for each technical assistance activity to be supported by this project that are consistent with existing strategies and with their submissions to the PRDP for 2011-2013. The implementing partners will have the direct responsibility for implementing those plans, within the overall project coordination by the MOF. 7. Sustainability This project is to support the implementation of the PRDP, and to build the institutions of a future Palestinian state. The sustainability of its impacts is therefore ultimately dependent on political processes outside of the project’s control. However, the commitment of the PA to the PRDP has been demonstrated through a series of sustained reforms over the past two years to improve public financial management and to strengthen Palestinian institutions. PCBS: PCBS is one of the PA’s strongest institutions. It has been steadily developing its capabilities and effectively acting as a state statistical institution for more than 15 years. Its commitment to the elements of this project is amply demonstrated by the fact that they are priority areas of the National Development Statistics Strategy (NSDS). In addition, PCBS has already begun work in these areas using their precious internal resources, which clearly indicates the importance that the PCBS management and senior PA officials place on them. Bank support will allow them to carry out these efforts sooner and more extensively. PMA: since early 2008, when the World Bank started to focus on financial sector issues in West Bank and Gaza, the PMA has consistently shown ownership and commitment toward analytical 4 work. The ultimate goal of the PMA, which is to become a modern and full-fledged Central Bank, constitutes a strong incentive to achieve the successful implementation of its component. PPA: the PA has shown commitment as it has clearly indicated in its 2009 Letter of Development Policy for the World Bank’s 2009 Palestinian Reform and Development Plan Development Policy Grant II (PRDP DPG II) that one of its top priorities is to prepare a pensions reform action plan that would include short, medium, and long-term measures. High level officials have indicated their willingness to undertake parametric reforms in 2010. 8. Lessons Learned from Past Operations in the Country/Sector There is an increased risk of restructuring or delays in a project with three implementing partners. Lessons learned from similar projects (for example an Economic Reform Technical Assistance Project in Nepal, and the Emergency Services Support Project in West Bank/Gaza) that will be applied to this project include: having a lead partner (the MOF) coordinate and be responsible for the project; agreeing terms of reference and procurement plans before effectiveness, in order to avoid delays in negotiating eligibility to technical assistance funding; and preparing a Project Implementation Manual before negotiations, to define the responsibilities of each of the 4 entities (PCU/MOF, PCBS, PMA, PPA) involved in the project, and to avoid delays related to any renegotiating of roles and responsibilities after effectiveness. The PCBS component builds upon the successful experience of two grants from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building. The first grant helped PCBS develop its NDSS and the second helped implement aspects of the strategy. During the implementation of these grants, PCBS developed a strong understanding of the Bank’s financial management and procurement procedures. PCBS also improved its ability to identify and manage qualified international consultants. Finding consultants who can successfully work in WBG is a challenge. It takes time to learn about the internal workings of PCBS and its program. But more importantly it takes time to develop an understanding of the unique political environment and its effect on PCBS’ operations. Consequently, one of the clearest lessons learned from previous technical assistance to PCBS is that when possible it is best to use consultants that already have experience working with PCBS. New consultants have a steep learning curve and it takes considerable time before they become productive. Another lesson for previous technical assistance is the usefulness of study tours. It is not possible for professionals from other national statistics agencies to visit WBG and most private consultants possess narrow technical knowledge. Thus, PBCS staff benefit greatly by being able to travel to other countries, see how modern statistics agencies function and learn modern management techniques for statistical agencies. The capacity-building support designed for the PMA is fully in line with the recommendations of the past World Bank, IMF and donors’ analytical work carried out on the financial sector in West Bank and Gaza. The sub-components under the PMA Component, and in particular the banking supervision, the reserve management and the establishment of a deposit insurance scheme, are designed in accordance with the best international practices. 9. Safeguard Policies (including public consultation) None of the Bank's safeguard policies will be triggered. Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) Yes [] No [x] 5 Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) Pest Management (OP 4.09) Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Forests (OP/BP 4.36) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60)* [] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] Consultations The Bank advised the PCU/MOF to encourage the three sector entities to hold and document stakeholder consultation during technical assistance preparation in order to enhance the design and implementation of the technical assistance through consideration of stakeholder views and documentation of stakeholder feedback. PCBS, PMA, and PPA have conducted sector-specific stakeholder consultations during assistance preparation. Given the upstream - and potentially sensitive - nature of the proposed interventions, particularly in the pension sector, and the fact that the technical assistance focuses on capacity building of PA institutions, a dialogue-based approach within the PA will be used to resolve any outstanding policy issues prior to considering a broader consultative approach. 10. List of Factual Technical Documents Program Document PRDP DGP II Financial Management Capacity Assessment Procurement Capacity Assessment 11. Contact point Contact: Douglas Pearce Title: Sr Private Sector Development Specialist Tel: (202) 458-4343 Fax: (202) 522-2151 Email: [email protected] 12. For more information contact: The InfoShop The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 458-4500 Fax: (202) 522-1500 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.worldbank.org/infoshop * By supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice the final determination of the parties' claims on the disputed areas. 6