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Draft Project: Second National Communication on Climate Change (SNC) Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Yemen Republic: The Case Study of Wadi Surdud with its Contributing Catchments Prepared by Saif Alhakimi1, Team Leader Abdulla Noaman2 Mansour Haidera3 Submitted to Environment Protection Authority (EPA), Yemen 1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Science, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen Associate Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen 3 Assistant professor, Faculty of Engineering, Sana'a Univer sity, Sana'a, Yemen 2 1 Contents List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................... iii List of Figures ...................................................................................................... vi Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction....................................................................................................... 2 2. Objectives of this study .................................................................................... 4 3. Methodology and tools ..................................................................................... 4 4. General characteristics of the study area ....................................................... 5 4.1 Location............................................................................................................................ 5 4.2 Topography, Geology, and Land Use ............................................................................... 5 4.3 Geology and Stratigraphy .............................................................................................. 6 5. Hydro-meteorological conditions ................................................................... 8 5.1 Rainfall ............................................................................................................................. 8 5.2 Temperature .................................................................................................................. 10 5.3 Relative Humidity ......................................................................................................... 11 5.4 Sunshine duration ......................................................................................................... 11 5.5 Wind speed..................................................................................................................... 12 5.6 Potential evaportranspiration ...................................................................................... 13 6. Surface water (Runoff) ................................................................................... 13 7. Groundwater ................................................................................................... 15 8. Population ........................................................................................................ 16 9. Methodology .................................................................................................... 18 9.1 WEAP Model development .......................................................................................... 18 Catchment Area ............................................................................................................................................ 21 Deep Conductivity ........................................................................................................................................ 22 Initial Z2 ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 Soil Water (Root Zone) Capacity ................................................................................................................. 22 Root Zone Conductivity ................................................................................................................................ 22 Preferred Flow Direction ............................................................................................................................. 22 Initial Z1 ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 Crop Coefficient Kc ...................................................................................................................................... 23 Leaf Area Index ............................................................................................................................................ 23 Precipitation ................................................................................................................................................. 23 Temperature, Wind and Humidity ................................................................................................................ 23 10. Climate input base line parameters ............................................................ 24 11. Model calibration and results ...................................................................... 25 12. Strategies development and results ............................................................. 28 13. Adaptation strategies prioritization based on stakeholder criteria weighting ....................................................................................................... 32 13.1 Discussion of results: .................................................................................................... 33 14. Policy and Institutional Issues.....................................................................35 14.1 Institutional set up…………………………………………………………………….35 14. 2 Strategic, legislative and policy issues……………………………………………….38 14.3 Constraints and gaps for vulnerability assessments……………………………… ..41 ii 14.4 List of projects or programs proposed for financing…………………………………42 15. Conclusion and recommendations .............................................................. 46 Acknowledgment ......................................................................................... 49 References..................................................................................................... 50 Annex A ........................................................................................................ 51 Annex B ........................................................................................................ 57 iii List of Abbreviations AGC APF CCU CDM EPA GDP GEF NCCC MDGs MPIC MWE NAPA NCAP NGOs NWRA NWSA TOR UN UNDP UNEP UNFCCC V&A WB WEAP WEC Arab Gulf Council Adaptation Policy Framework Climate Change Unit Clean Development Mechanism Environmental Protection Agency-Yemen General Domestic Product Global Environment Facility National Climate Change Committee Millennium Development Goals Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation Ministry of Water and Environment National Adaptation Plan of Action Netherlands Climate Assistance Program Non-governmental Organizations National Water Resource Authority National Water and Sanitation Authority Terms of References United Nations United Nations Development Program United Nation Environmental Program United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation World Bank Water Evaluation and Planning software Water and Environment Center iii List of Figures Figure 7. Mean monthly wind speed in Wadi Surdud plain and surrounding areas……………………….13 Figure 8. Average Monthly Flow Volumes at Fag Alhussein Station (after NWRA, 2008)………………15 Figure 9. Wadi Surdud Area Population Distribution 2007………………………………………………..17 Figure 10. Distribution of bore holes in Wadi Surdud Plain……………………………………………….17 Figure 11. Schematic diagram of WEAP model for Wadi Surdud…………………………………………19 Figure 12. Soil moisture method Model (Source: Sieber, 2005)…………………………………………...20 Figure 13. Average annual rainfall of all stations in Upper Cachment (mountainous region)……………..24 Figure 14. Groundwater storage in the Quaternary aquifer under climate scenarios…………………....... 27 Figure 15. Groundwater storage in the Mesozoic and Shallow aquifers under climate scenarios……….....27 Figure 16. Strategies effect on all aquifers storage during the Reference Scenario………………………...29 Figure 17. Strategies effect on the Quaternary aquifer storage during the UKHI Scenario………………...29 Figure 18. Strategies effect on Mesozoic and Shallow aquifers' storage during the UKHI Scenario……....30 Figure 19. Coastal catchments inflows and outflows……………………………………………………….31 Figure 20. Mountainous catchments inflows and outflows…………………………………………………31 List of Tables Table 1. lists of the weather monitoring stations including the average monthly rainfall (TDA, 2008)…….9 Table 2. Input Parameters and Sensitivity………………………………………………………………….21 Table 3. Comparison between the reported and the predicted Wadi Surdud'……………………… ……26 Table 4. Summary results of scenarios analysis and stakeholders meetings-Wadi Surdud………… …… 36 Table 5. Example of institutional and legal measures……………………………………………………..44 Table 6. Example of measures for identification, assessment and mitigation of negative climate change impacts……………………………………………………………………………………45 iv Executive Summary The main purpose of this study is to assess climate change impacts (gains and losses) on water resources and water management in Wadi Surdud drainage basin area, under certain climate change scenarios, and to identify the required and adequate measures and adaptation strategies that can be followed or applied in such area. The study area, Wadi Surdud drainage basin, forms one part of the western drainage basins area of Yemen. It occupies a surface area of nearly 4050 km2, and is featured by an arid/semi-arid climate. Wadi Surdud is considered one of the main wadis (intermittent streams) descending from, and draining waters from, the semi-arid western mountain slopes of Yemen, into the Red Sea basin. The upper cachment area of the drainage basin has a rough and dissected topography, with an elevation reaching up to 3700 m (a.s.l). In an area approaching the Red Sea region, Wadi Surdud debouches into rather flat area (Tihama Zone). The average rainfall in the drainage basin is reported to be between 300 mm and 600 mm, for the upper and middle catchment areas, but significantly less in the Tihama part (around 100 mm). The study area is of a special interest due to its social and economical importance, both because it includes major agricultural activities which support not only Alhudaida city but also Sana’a city and some other governorates with varieties of crops. As a result, the water resources in the area generally suffer from an escalating pressure due to the high consumption of water by agriculture to cope with the increasing demand by population growth in cities. Therefore, reduction of rainfall, as a result of climate change, will make the situation even worst. In this study, a Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model was used to evaluate water demands, supplies and scarcity among all water users sectors under a range of potential climate change scenarios and adaptation strategies. The simulation period in this study was twenty five years (2008-2033) and the adapted strategies and measures were, Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation channels, Conveying irrigation water through closed conduits, and the use of drip irrigation method and changing crop pattern. The simulation results showed that improving irrigation efficiency through using drip irrigation technique is found to be the best strategy to be adopted, followed by the strategy of using closed conduits for conveying irrigation water to farms, and then the least preferred strategy, the rehabilitation of traditional irrigation channels while changing crop pattern, which was found to have little impact on water savings for our case. The amount of water saved for the adapted strategies, drip irrigation and closed conduits, are 157.3 MCM/y and 91 MCM/y, respectively. 1 1. Introduction Yemen, which is currently a home to 23 million people, has limited resources notably scarce water, a shortage of arable land and declining oil reserves. Its population is young, predominantly rural (73 percent) and rapidly growing (World Bank, 2009). The long term average amount of water available is less than 200m3 per capita per year (van der Gun, 2009) and predicted to decline to below 150m3 per capita per year (EPA, 2009). The National Water Resources Agency (NWRA) state that the sustainable use of water is 2100 to 2500Mm3 and that current use is about 3400Mm3; thus the country suffers from an acute water shortage. Although agriculture contributes a small amount to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) it provides employment and family income for more than half the country’s labour force and consumes 95 percent of available water resources. The Economist further revealed that Yemen ranks 6 among the nations of lowest quality of life index (38.5 against 100 in New York); and ranks 10 among the lowest purchasing power parity (2.2 against 100 in USA). Moreover, the country stands 26th position with a very high consumer price index of 10.8% in the year 2005. Its environmental sustainability index is one of the lowest in the World. According to the Statistical Year Book 2008 of CSO, Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, ROY, the gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices of 2008 for Yemen was estimated at 2551994 MYR (13811 Million USD) and gross national product (GNP) at market prices of 2008 was 2337781 MYR (12652 Million USD). The per capita GNP thus comes to 120194 YR (659 USD) for the year 2008. It is a matter of satisfaction that the per capita GNP is showing a steady increasing trend . The major sectors that play important roles in the country's economy are agriculture, mining, manufacturing, trade, transport and storage, financial and other services. The share of these sectors in GDP for 2008 was 20.06, 14.24, 9.44, 8.99, 13.25, 8.87 and 20.00 percent, respectively. According to the Agricultural Statistics Year Book 2008, published by the Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation, ROY, the agriculture sector is not only the largest contributor to the national economy of Yemen, but also it employs the majority (around 60%) of the active labour force of the country. Out 2 of the total area of 1.66 million ha, 65% area is cultivated and the remaining 35% uncultivated. The total number of agricultural holdings in Yemen in 2004 was 1.18 million and the total cultivated area was nearly 1.19 million ha. In other words, the average size of holding was around 1 ha. Among the group of crops, cereals occupy about 58%, vegetables 6%, fruits 6.8%, legumes 2.7%, cash crops 16.3% and fodders 10.2% of the total crop area of 1.19 million ha. Sorghum accounting for 62.5% of the total area under cereals is single major cereal crop followed by millet 14.5%, wheat 12.3%, maize 5.6% and barley 5.1% of the total cereals grown in the country. It is further revealed by the Agricultural Statistics Year Book 2004 that of the total cultivated area in the country 45% is rainfed, 37% is well irrigated, 5% is irrigated through spring water, and the remaining 13% is irrigated by flood or spate irrigation. In other words, groundwater resource is the major source of irrigation in the country The study area (Figure 1) is part of the western drainage basin of Yemen. Wadi Surdud, is located between 14° 58′–15° 35′ N and 43° 20′–43° 58′ E on the so-called Western Escarpment of the highlands along western part of the Yemen Republic (NWRA, 2008). Wadi Surdud is one of seven major wadis, which developed in these highlands (Upper and Middle Catchments) and flow westwards to the Red Sea across the semi-arid coastal plain locally known as Tihama (Lower catchment), which is about 50 km far from the sea (Figure 2). The total cachment area of Wadi Surdud, including the plain, is 2750 km2. The average rainfall is between 300mm and 600mm in the upper and middle cachment areas but significantly less in the Tihama part (around 100mm). The annual average temperatures in the upper catchment and lower cachment respectively are 18 and 300C and for the relative humidity are 58 and 65% (Adna, 2002, NWRA, 2008, Van der Gun, 1986). According to Water Resources Assessment Yemen project (WRAY) and Van der Gun, and Aziz (1995) potential evapotranspiration at mountainous area is 2014mm/year and at the coastal area is 2291mm/year. Selection of the study area was largely based on the widespread area coverage; different geographical and climatic regions, the Highlands, the Midlands (plateau and escarpment) and the Low Lands (coastal plain zone) in addition to the level of socio-economic livelihood where the GDP per capita is US$500/year and reasonably different environmental status. The study area has special social and economical importance both because it includes major agricultural activities which 3 support not only City but even cites beyond Al-Hudaida City borders with verity of crops. As a result, the water resources in the area generally suffer from escalating pressures due to the high consumption of water by agriculture to cope with increase demand raised by population increase in related cities. Reduction of rainfall, as a result of climate change, made the situation even worse with emerging of numerous water use conflicts due to competitions between different water use sectors. Several groundwater studies indicated an already significant drop in the aquifers water level, which will eventually lead to depletion and rising water cost. 2. Objective of this study The main objective of this study is to: a. assess the vulnerability and adaptation of water resources in Surdod Drainage Basin area, under current and future climate conditions, and consequently b. assess future climate risks and adaptation measures with an attempt of developing an adaptation policy framework, that can be accounted for in national development planning. 3. Methodology and tools The assessments conducted for the study area are accomplished through the following: Collection of all available and relevant data on water resources and availability, land use and demand, water use sectors and demand, meteorological data and socio-economic aspects, from reports, maps and other sources. Rapid rural appraisal method was used for participatory assessments among stakeholders and decision makers to discuss their concerns regarding issues of water scarcity and possible adaptation measures. Identification of key policy issues, to assist in scoping the scale of risks associated with projected climate change, aid in the identification of priorities for adaptation and support the development of a national adaptation strategy. Identification of the expected outputs of the study and linking them to national development planning priorities. 4 The use of WEAP and MCA-WEAP modeling software and tools, developed by Stockholm Environment Institute-USA, for determining water balance conditions and evaluating water needs and scarcity among all water using sectors, under two potential climate change scenarios (dry and wet conditions), and various adaptation measures. 4. General characteristics of study area 4.1 Location Wadi Surdud (2370 km2), is located between latitudes 14° 58′ and 15° 35′ N and longitudes 43° 20′ and 43° 58′ E, on the so-called the Western Escarpment of Yemen Highlands, along the western part of Yemen Republic (Figure 1). It is one of seven major wadis, which developed in such highlands, flowing westwards into the Red Sea, and crossing the semi-arid coastal plain, locally known as Tihama. . 4.2 Topography, Geology, and Land Use The area consists of two very distinct geographical zones; the topographical low 'coastal plain zone' in the west that forms part of the Tihama plain and the mountainous 'catchment area' to the east. The western part is composed of a gently sloping zone at low elevation, excluding the Qumah mountain with an elevation of 78 m a.s.l., otherwise all the eastern part catchment area is rugged, strongly dissected by Wadi Surdod's stream network, within the mountainous zone that reaches elevations over 3000 m above sea level. The highest elevation in the eastern boundary is 3666 m a.s.l. (Jabal An Nabi Shuayb), the highest mountain in the Arabian Peninsula (Figure 2). The total catchment area of Wadi Surdud basin, including its plain, is 2750 km2. 5 Figure 1: Location of Wadi Surdud and its contributing catchments in Yemen 4.3 Geology and Stratigraphy The geologic setting of the present Tihama Plain (Figure 2) is completely controlled by the Red Sea Graben, which was formed during the Tertiary period, initiated by fracturing, step faulting and rifting along an anticlinal structure of the African-Arabian shield. The structural and stratigraphic construction of the area is controlled by the tectonic and environment history of the Red Sea Rift System. The Red Sea rift valley is an elongate NNW-SSE basin between the African Continent and the Arabian Peninsula, on both sides separated by faults from the prominent escarpments of the uplifted margins of the Precambrian shields. The main stratigraphic units are Precambrian Basement (PC), Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks (P/M), Cainozoic Tertiary Formation (C) and Quaternary Sediments (Q): 6 Figure 2: Geological map of the Surdud catchment area (SAWAS, 1996) There are three aquifers in the study area, the Mesozoic aquifer in the mountainous area, the Shallow aquifer along Wadi Surdud reaches and the Quaternary aquifer in the costal area. The shallow aquifer is recharged by wadi bed infiltration from wadi flood and baseflow as interflow from Mesozoic aquifer. In the mountainous area there are six sub-catchments drain to six wadi tributaries which constitute the Wadi Surdud headflow are reflected in Weap Model. In the coastal area there are thirteen agriculture lands or sub-catchments (see Figure 3). For each sub-cachment and based on Van der Gun and Wesseling (1991) and field investigations data on area, land use, crop pattern, crop coefficient values, kc, (FAO, 1989) and crop production costs are modeled. It was assumed that there is 1.5% annual increase in agriculture area. Regarding municipal water, it is represented by two demand nodes, one in the mountainous region and the other in the coastal region. 7 5. Hydro-meteorological conditions 5.1 Rainfall Two rainy seasons can be distinguished in the study area: one in spring, and the other in summer, with 45% of rainfall occurring during July and August. Annual precipitation ranges from 400 mm in the mountain to 50 mm at the outlet of the study area in the sea. The number of rainy days (>10 mm) is around 17 which is typical of desert climate. The rainy events are characterized by a rapid onset and high intensity short duration. Shower storms are infrequent, localized, and variable within the basin. Potential evaportransporation [ETo] exceeds the monthly and annual rainfall amounts observed. Calculated [ETo] according to the Penman method is around 1825 mm/year. Rainfall in the mountainous and steep Upper Wadi Surdud catchment is quickly followed by runoff peaks in the wadis, like elsewhere in Yemen. The rising limbs of the flood hydrographs usually last only some 10 to 30 minutes. The recession -although slower- is quick as well, and direct runoff is disappearing completely within one or two days after the flood peaks. Hydrological monitoring was considered by TDA the most essential input to a better hydrological assessment of Wadi Surdud. Consequently, a hydrological network was designed, installed and operated. Determination of the type and the locations of the monitoring stations was guided by the objectives of the hydrological study and on ideas on the hydrological processes and features in the area. Table 1 and Figure3 lists the monitoring stations including the average monthly rainfall. 8 Table 1: lists of weather monitoring stations including average monthly rainfall (TDA, 2008) Average rainfall (mm) Meteorological stations Mayan Assalf Mafhak Rujum Qadam Khamis Ghamr Zuhaif Khamlu Dhahi Data range 1984-2007 Month 1984-1997 January 3.6 4.2 1.9 3.4 0.50 3.1 3.3 5.7 2.5 0.8 February 5.8 7.3 6.8 4.6 4.00 5.8 7.7 8.2 4.6 5.0 March 18.9 29.5 22.0 17.1 18.56 7.0 29.7 13.7 6.3 1.7 April 44.7 87.1 44.7 61.5 63.58 44.0 74.2 61.7 36.9 12.6 May 23.2 31.4 23.7 33.5 57.01 38.9 67.4 52.5 40.1 13.8 June 8.6 10.4 7.3 30.4 14.04 25.8 26.1 18.7 17.2 0.7 July 43.5 77.9 37.8 59.8 45.96 54.7 33.7 34.2 28.4 7.1 August 44.5 95.4 55.4 124.8 84.36 72.8 70.1 76.3 74.5 39.2 September 2.7 15.4 10.0 41.4 24.61 34.7 28.5 46.8 35.4 34.5 October 2.6 9.1 7.2 8.9 22.16 6.0 12.2 22.1 12.7 17.1 November 4.0 12.3 4.5 6.1 9.87 4.6 11.2 12.8 4.6 1.3 14.1 11.0 4.9 6.2 2.61 4.5 7.3 7.5 5.3 216.2 391 226.2 397.7 347.26 301.9 371.4 360.2 268.5 December Total 450 mm 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 A ss al f M af ha q M ay an G ha m r Zu ha if R uj um K ha m lu K ha m is Q ad am D ah i Za yd iy ah 0 Figure 3. Mean annual rainfall in Wadi Surdud catchment area (after NWRA, 2008). 9 3.9 137.7 5.2 Temperature The annual range of temperature variation in the Wadi Surdud coastal plain of the warmest and coolest month of the year is about eight ◦C as recorded in Dahi meteorological station. Fig 4 shows that there is no big difference to west of the area to sea direction (in Hudaydah meteorological station near coast) due to a slightly solar radiation variation over the territory and to other associated factors, based on data for a period 1984-1991, see appendix IV. The lowest temperature records in Dahi monitoring station is 25 ◦C as average in January and the highest is a little more than 34 ◦C in June month. The highest temperature is always predominantly during summer season (June-September), with a highest average rains in August and September months in Dahi and surrounding areas. The temperature in the mountainous areas to the east (Catchment Area) become lower and lower by increasing elevation. 40 ◦c35 30 25 20 15 10 5 DAHI Hudaydah Zuhrah 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Figure 4. Mean monthly temperature in Wadi Surdud plain and surrounding areas (after NWRA, 2008). 10 5.3 Relative Humidity Mean monthly relative air humidity in Wadi Surdud coastal plain (middle of the projected area) is recorded between 43 to 65 % depending on temperature and rainy seasons. It reaches lowest values about 43 % in July with highest monthly average temperature 34 ◦C and increases to about 50 % in August then to about 53 % in September with about 40 and 35 mm of rains respectively. Fig 5 shows monthly average relative humidity for three meteorological stations in the middle of the study area and to the north and the southwest direction of the area. 90 % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 DAHI Hudaydah Zuhrah 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Figure 5. Mean monthly relative humidity in Wadi Surdud plain and surrounding areas (after NWRA, 2008). 5.4 Sunshine duration Clear skies are predominant in the region during most of the year. Recorded annual mean values are between 5 and 8.5 hours/day in the middle of the projected area, which corresponds from 43 and 71 % of the theoretical maximum respectively in Dahi and between 4.7 and 8.7 % in Zuhara meteorological station to the north. Figure (6) shows daily sunshine hours excluding the minimum records during summer rainy season (July-September). 11 hours/day 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 DAHI Zuhrah JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Figure 6: Mean monthly sunshine duration in Wadi Surdud plain and surrounding areas (after NWRA, 2008). 5.5 Wind speed The available reflected records of wind speed in the area shows that in the middle of study area in Dahi meteorological station is low, monthly average wind speed between 0.9 to 1.0 m/s approximately all year excluding July and August when it reaches to 1.3 and 1.2 m/s respectively. Wind speed increasing to the west of the area and it reaches to 5.3 m/s near the red sea, as it is obtained in Hudaydah meteorological station. Figure 7 shows monthly average wind speed in three meteorological stations. 12 6.0 m/s 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 DAHI Hudaydah Zuhrah 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Figure 7: Mean monthly wind speed in Wadi Surdud plain and surrounding areas (after NWRA, 2008). 5.6 Potential evaportranspiration Potential evapotranspiration (ETp) far exceeds the observed monthly and annual rainfall amounts at Ad Dahi in the middle of the area. Potential evapotranspiration (ETp) calculated according to the Penman method around 2082 mm/year, while the average annual precipitation around 138 mm/year according to (Jac van der Gun and Abdul Aziz Ahmed, 1995). Reference evaporation E0 is about 10 % higher than corresponding potential evapotranspiration ETp, values depending on specific conditions. The ratio between average annual precipitation (P) and annual reference evaporation (E0), 0.03<P/E0<0.25 shows that the area is classified as arid area. 6. Surface water (Runoff) During rainy seasons drops of rain run of down-slope of Wadi Surdud catchment area as all western slopes as overland flow to the nearest branch of drainage network to contain a quick (direct) flow. The volume of surface water produced by the catchment is important to be identified for potential water resources utilization. The first flow measures has been made by Russians for 1965-1967 then GDH's WRAY project rehabilitated the stream gauging station of Fug Alhussein installed by Hallecrow and by installing new bubble gauge recorder since the 13 beginning of 1984. The location site of the station near the boundary between mountainous catchment area (around 2370 Km2) and coastal plain area where runoff volumes are highest and wadi river passes through a narrow gorge. Since that, daily-recorded data is fully available for 1984-1985 and partially for 1986-1989 before the station has been stopped and damaged. By analyzing available data and published data, some statistics can be derived: The Wadi Surdud generally characterized by abruptly rising peaks that rapidly recede during spring and summer rainy seasons (Instantaneous floods). In between these peaks, the wadi has a permanent base-flow of 0.5-1.0 m3/s as observed during last years, 90 % of it yields by Khamis Bani Sa'ad branch. The baseflow contributes around 40 % of the annual flow volumes (Jac van der Gun and Wesseling, 1990). The volume of annual runoff is between 50 and 100 Mm3, gauged calculated average for periods 1965-1969 and 1984-1989 is 69.3 Mm3 (Figure 8). A double peaked floods event is common, the observed maximum flood peak 600 m3/s was recorded in May 1984 (Jac van der Gun, 1985) and there was no records after 1991. Year to year variation of stream flow is high. The monthly distribution of flows (Figure 4) gives an impression of the regimes of the wadi. Generally, there are two flood seasons, corresponding with the rainy seasons mentioned in paragraph above. The records also show that the summer season bring s slightly more water than the spring season. Due to data variable reliability and accuracy, Jac vander Gun and Abdul Aziz Ahmed, 1995 estimated mean annual runoff volumes for runoff producing catchments in Yemen by using a uniform depth of rain water over the entire catchment area (mean 29.2 mm/year for Wadi Surdud catchment area) this was by estimating average annual rainfall about 440 mm/year and Runoff Coefficient (RC) for Wadi Surdud as 0.066 and scaling down the runoff volumes to uniform catchment size and rainfall rate (m3 of runoff per m2). The result was 65 Mm3/year, which is about equal to gauged volume. 14 6 Mean Monthly Flows at Faj Al Hussein (Records 1965-1967,1984-1989) 5 Mm3 4 3 2 1 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Figure 8: Average Monthly Flow Volumes at Fag Alhussein Station (after NWRA, 2008) 7. Groundwater Groundwater in Wadi Surdud is present virtually everywhere, but a condition of groundwater exploitation it varies widely from zone to another. The principal aquifer system in Wadi Surdud is formed by the Quaternary deposits underlying the Tihama coastal plain and covers about 1275km2 (Adnan, 2002). Mesozoic complex is another main aquifer in Wadi Surdud upper catchment. This aquifer is consisting of Tawilah sandstone and Amran limestone and covers an area around 1000km2. The initial storage for Quaternary and Mesozoic aquifers is estimated to be 2700MCM and 1000MCM respectively (Adnan, 2002, Van der Gun, and Aziz, 1995). There is another less important aquifer extends along Wadi Surdud reaches (Shallow aquifer) is very dependent on Runoff and baseflow with initial capacity estimated to be around 500MCM. Surfacewater in Wadi Surdud is in the form of runoff as excess of rainfall contributed by six mountainous agriculture subcatchments through six tributaries wadis (see Figure 3). This flow is divided into two parts: direct flow and baseflow. Direct flow is associated with the channel precipitation, overland flow and interflow. The baseflow is a regional aquifer system of Mesozoic sediments, drained by the so-called Ayoun Surdud ("Surdud springs"). The baseflow rates of Wadi Surdud immediately downstream of the confluence with Wadi Dayan are typically in the range of 18.92- 31.54 MCM/year, not counting 15 possible underflow through the wadi bed. Only some 10% of this baseflow is contributed by Wadi Dayan (SAWAS, 1996). This baseflow is a vital source of water for the people living along the wadi, and it is diverted at many locations along the wadi course to irrigate small plots of land on the valley terraces. Due to return flows and other inputs downstream, the baseflow rate does not change very much between Bab Dayan and Fug Alhusain, but is completely disappear after this location through bed infiltration to Quaternary Aquifer (SAWAS, 1996). The average annual amount of surface water involved (direct flow) is between 50 and 100 MCM/year. The average annual amounts measured at Fug Alhusain until 1991 was 69.3 Mm3 (for details refer to Adnan, 2002, Van der Gun, and Aziz, 1995, NWRA, 2008, SAWAS, 1996). This direct flow is almost utilized downstream of Fug Alhusain at the Lower Catchment (Coastal area) by thirteen agriculture sub-catchments. According to the 2004 Census, the population resides in coastal area is about 401961 inhabitant with average growth rate 3.258% and in the mountainous area is 522519 inhabitant with average growth rate 2.796%. It is assumed that at mountainous area domestic water use is 40l/c.d and in the coastal area is 70l/c.d (Adnan, 2002). 8. Population The total population of the project area reached 299,641 inhabitants according to 'The Final Results of Population, Housing & Establishment Census, 2004'. The rural population rate is 80% and urban population rate is only 20% that means more population is distributed in rural areas, while total male rate is 51%. The main towns and urban centers are Az Zaideyah, Ad Dahi, Al Kadan, Al Meghlaf and As Salif.. Figure 9 shows the population distribution in the wadi surdud area. Well inventory study has been carried out in 2008, by NWRA; field works implemented by two crews. Total number of wells has been inventoried around 4948 wells,. The inventoried wells are classified into dug wells its number 1500, which represent about (30%); borehole wells 1835, which represent about (37%); dug/bore wells 1604, which represent about (32%) and only nine springs, which represent about (0.18% ) of total, where they located in Wadi Al Hawdh easting boundary of Wadi Surdud plain . Figure 10 shows the wells distribution in costal plain of the wadi Surdud. 16 As Salif Urban 1,206 Al Munirah Rural 0% 32,741 10% Al Munirah Uraban, 8,127 2% As Salif Rural, 5,485 2% Al Meghlaf Rural 39,607 12% Az Zaideyah Urban 20,093 6% Az Zaideyah Rural, 86,501 25% Al Meghlaf Urban, 5,203 2% Bajel Rural, 79,679 23% Ad Dahi Urban, 25,473 7% Ad Dahi Rural, 36,578 11% Figure 9 Wadi Surdud Area Population Distribution 2007 (after NWRA, 2008). Figure 10 Distribution of bore holes in Wadi Surdud Plain (NWRA,2008) 17 9. Methodology In the case study area extensive stakeholder consultations and data collection were conducted to characterize current water availability, future water resource vulnerability, and possible adaptation strategies to mitigate water scarcity. Stakeholder consultations were undertaken using rapid rural appraisal techniques and focused on local perceptions of water scarcity, climatic factors, and development challenges; overall strategy preferences of various interest groups (e.g., farmers, policy makers, water utilities officials) were collected based on perceived feasibility, cost, and value in terms of water savings. These structured stakeholder discussions were then synthesized into a set of inputs for water resource modelling and prioritizing adaptation initiatives. Current water demand and supply data and estimated future trends in water use, obtained from a number of Yemeni and international data sources, were incorporated into a scenario-driven water balance modelling platform - the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software (Yates et al., 2005). WEAP was used for each case study to analyze water availability for a number of adaptation and climate scenarios, including a reference scenario (herein referred to as ‘Reference’) that projected existing trends in water supply and demand into the future (2033) in the absence of adaptation options. In the Reference scenario , the climate sequence for future years was developed by repeating the sequence of available historical data and assuming a similar periodicity into the future period (2008-2033). In addition, two different climate change scenarios incorporated changes in precipitation and temperature through 2032, as predicted by the Oregon State University model (OSU Core) and U.K. Meteorological Office High Resolution General Circulation model (UKHI), developed during the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Program (NCCSAP : 1996-2000). The OSU Core model represented an ‘expected’ climate trajectory, whereas the UKHI model represented a ‘worst case’, drier trajectory. 9.1 WEAP Model development After compiling the necessary data, the WEAP model is used for water balance analysis of Sana’a Basin. The schematic diagram is shown in Figure 11. 18 WEAP supports the use of three hydrologic modeling methods: the Rainfall Runoff method FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), the Water Requirement FAO approach, and the Rainfall Runoff Soil moisture method. The Rainfall Runoff Soil moisture method was chosen because it offers the most comprehensive analysis by allowing for the characterization of land use and/or soil type impacts to the hydrological processes (Sieber, 2005). The Soil moisture method is a one-dimensional two-soil-layer algorithm for calculating evapotranspiration, surface runoff, sub-surface runoff and deep percolation for a defined land area unit. A conceptual diagram of the equations incorporated into the Soil moisture method water balance calculations are shown in Figure 12 Figure 11.Schematic diagram of WEAP model for Wadi Surdud drainage basin. 19 Figure 12. Soil moisture method Model (Source: Sieber, 2005) Using the Soil moisture method which relatively accurately describes the hydrologic response of the basin implies that more detailed hydrologic and climatic parameters are required for the model. Consequently, the parameters and data are often difficult to define with certainty. The basic input parameters are listed in Table 2, along with the sensitivities identified for each parameter, which are a result of the work of Jantzen et al, (2006). WEAP imposes a model structure in terms of input parameter resolution, meaning that WEAP forces certain parameters to describe the entire catchment and others to describe smaller land unit areas such as the soil classification or land use category. 20 Table 2. Input Parameters and Sensitivity Parameters Unit Resolution Sensitivity Land use Area Sq km Catchment High mm Catchment Highi Deep Conductivity mm/day Catchment Moderate Initial Z2 No unit Catchment No Influence mm Soil Moderate Root Zone Conductivity mm/day Soil Moderateii Preferred Flow Direction no unit Soil Moderate Initial Z1 no unit Soil No influence Crop Coefficient, Kc no unit Land use High Leaf Area Index no unit Land use High Catchment High C Catchment Moderate m/s Catchment Low % Catchment Low Deep Water Capacity Soil Water Capacity Climate Precipitation Temperature Wind Humidity mm o Catchment Area A fundamental parameter of any hydrologic model is the catchment area. The catchment areas of the sub-basins delineated and measured in this study was found to be well in line with the previous studies. Deep Water Capacity Deep Water Capacity is the effective water-holding capacity, in millimeters, of the deep soil layer or the second bucket in the Soil moisture method. 21 Deep Conductivity The Deep Conductivity parameter represents the conductivity rate of the second bucket, in millimeters per day. Deep Conductivity controls the transmission of base flow. WEAP applies a single value of Deep Conductivity to the entire catchment. This value is very low or zero in Sana’a Basin as base-flow in the Wadis is negligible. Initial Z2 The “Initial Z2” parameter is the relative storage given as a percentage of the total effective storage of the Deep Water Capacity at the beginning of a simulation. WEAP, like Deep Water Capacity, forces Initial Z2 to be constant for each basin. Soil Water (Root Zone) Capacity Soil Water or Root Zone Capacity is the effective water-holding capacity in millimeters of the first bucket in the Soil moisture method. Root Zone Conductivity Root Zone Conductivity or soil conductivity is the conductivity in the first bucket. Conductivity rate typically varies among soil and land use classifications. Different values are assigned depending on land use characteristics (runoff producing characteristics P1, A1, etc.) defined in earlier sections. Preferred Flow Direction The Preferred Flow Direction parameter is used to partition flow out of the root zone layer to the lower soil layer or groundwater. Preferred flow direction can vary by land use classification and ranges from 0 to 1. A preferred flow direction of 1 indicates 100% horizontal flow direction while 0 indicates 100% vertical flow direction. 22 Initial Z1 The Initial Z1 parameter is the relative storage given as a percentage of the total effective storage of the Root Zone Water Capacity at the beginning of a simulation. Crop Coefficient Kc The crop coefficient parameter Kc represents the effects of vegetative evapotranspiration and soil evaporation, which vary by land class type. The parameter was created to study the required soil moisture to maximize crop biomass production. Hence, Kc is typically used to calculate the required evapotranspiration using the equation: (Evapotranspiration) required = Kc * (Evapotranspiration) reference, Kc value adopted is used as presented in earlier sections. Leaf Area Index Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a parameter that varies by land use and is used to control the surface runoff response. Runoff tends to decrease with higher values of LAI. Precipitation Monthly Precipitation values of all stations in Wadi Surdud catchment are used. The stations are described in earlier sections. Temperature, Wind and Humidity Temperature data are entered in degrees Celsius. Humidity is the relative humidity entered as a percentage and Wind values are entered in meters per second. 23 10. Climate input base line parameters The historical average annual rainfall in the upper cachment (Figure 13) during the previous twenty three years is not uniform and decreases with time which may attribute to climate change. For the adopted simulation period (2008-2033) for Reference Scenario, a possible future rainfall sequence was determined using the Water Year method using this historical data. Characteristic water year statistics for very wet, wet, normal, dry, and very dry were determined from the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile flows in this dataset. The ratio of each characteristic flow relative to a normal flow obtained values of 1.34, 1.26, 0.81, and 0.66 for very wet, wet, dry, and very dry years (1.0 being normal). For local precipitation in each sub-cachment, the average monthly values were taken from the relevant rainfall stations recorded by Tihama Development Authority (TDA) for the period 1984-2007. Two climate change scenarios were also used, the UKHI dry weather and OSU Core which downscaled to local condition in the study area either the mountainous or the coastal region. The UKHI scenario assume 23% decrease in rainfall in the mountainous area and 27% decrease in rainfall in coastal area by the end of simulation period (2033). The OSU Core scenario assumes increase in rainfall of 5% in the mountainous area and 9% in coastal area by the end of simulation period. 500 450 Rainfall, mm/year 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2007 2006 2005 2003 2002 2001 2000 1997 1996 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 0 Year Figure 13. Average annual rainfall of all stations in Upper Cachment (mountainous region) 24 11. Model calibration and results The result of the base condition is compared with the observed (or reported) values then for verification the model is calibrated. Table3 shows the calibration result where the model result is very close to the observed values especially at coastal catchment except for sub-surface flow which is assumed (Adnan, 2002; Van der Gun, and Aziz, 1995) to undergo to the Red Sea. In The Model all the excess surface water infiltrates to the quaternary aquifer which even could not cope with annual decrease in water storage (Figure 14 Table 3) which is about 288.62 MCM/year (0.23m annual drop) and thus the existing storage will be depleted within 93 years during the Reference Scenario and within 70 years during the UKHI Scenario (0.26m annual drop). In recent time due to overexploitation from some places of western area like Al Urg, Al Jarb and Al Turbah areas, the groundwater flow direction in these areas changed from all directions to the center of cone of depletion and seawater intrusion hazard became more serious, where about 5000 borehole are in the coastal area (NWRA, 2008). The conclusion is that groundwater flow pattern evidently related with the aquifer deposits types and with the total abstraction from the aquifer (NWRA, 2008). For the mountainous region the Model surface flow result is very close to the observed values while the groundwater abstraction and recharge result is respectively about 21 and 12% more than the estimated values by Adnan (2002) and Van der Gun and Wesseling (1991) which are based on water balance method but not on real measurements. Data that could be used to determine the recharge from precipitation is not available for the upper Wadi Surdud catchment. Also, information on irrigation losses is scarce. Most of the studies are concentrated on coastal plain and thus a detail study on upper cachment of Wadi Surdud is vitally needed especially on groundwater abstraction and infiltration. Regarding groundwater storage it is nearly stable with just with about 1 to 2 cm annual drop (Figure 16 during the Reference Scenario and will be more stable with no drop in storage in the OSU Scenario but it will be affected during the UKHI Scenario especially in the Mesozoic aquifer where the annual water storage drop will reach 10cm. 25 Table3: Comparison between the reported and the predicted Wadi Surdud' Model values Surface water (average) Ground water abstraction Mm3/yr Mm3/year At Catchments Mountainous Irrigation sub-catchments & evaporation Mountainous Area Model Run Base along the off flow wadi 45.65 25.298 1.646 At Fug Alhusain Total Aquifer Irrigation Municipal Recharge 14 8.52 36 16.8 8.52 *40.31 364.12 12.22 97 370.33 12.22 *93.93 surface flow Mesozoic 69.3 & Shallow 46.274 25.3 1.604 69.97 At Irrigation At & Fug Alhusain evaporation along coastal Coastal Area agricultural Run Base off flow Lands Assalif area (close to Red Sea) Quaternary Total Subsurface flow Model 45.65 23.652 35 34.3 46.274 23.696 32.9 0 * Infiltration to aquifer from catchments, from wadi bed, from transmission links losses and municipal return flow 26 Billion Cubic Meter Groundw ater Storage Aquifer: Qaternary Aquifer, All months OSU Core scenario Reference UKHI Dry Scenario 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Figure14. Groundwater storage in the Quaternary aquifer under climate scenarios Groundw ater Storage Selected Aquifers (2/3), All months OSU Core scenario Reference UKHI Dry Scenario 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Figure 15. Groundwater storage in the Mesozoic and shallow aquifers under climate scenarios 27 12. Strategies development and results Three strategies were introduced to improve the irrigation efficiency during the Reference and UKHI dry weather scenarios. These strategies are Using Drip Irrigation (assumes 30% gain of water), Using Closed Conduits (assumes 15% gain of water), Rehabilitation of Traditional Irrigation Channels (assumes 10% gain of water). In addition, there is another strategy, Changing Crop Pattern by replacing Banana with Sorghum and Qat with Coffee. Generally, it can be seen in Figure 16 that when these strategies are applied to all catchments during the Reference Scenario the most effective strategy is drip irrigation followed by closed conduits then traditional irrigation channels. For drip irrigation technique and in terms of storage improvement percentage, it is about 6.3% for the coastal aquifer and 4.4% for the mountainous aquifers followed by closed conduits with half of those values then Rehabilitation of Irrigation channels with third of those values. Changing crop pattern has very limited effect where in terms of storage improvement percentage it is only 1.4% for the Quaternary aquifer and 0.1% for the Mesozoic and Shallow aquifers. This sequence of strategies is also evident in Figures 17 and 18 when they are applied under the UKHI dry weather scenario but with less effect. The drip irrigation technique is very effective in improving the storage capacity of the Quaternary aquifer in the coastal area (Figure 8) but less effective for the Mesozoic and Shallow aquifers in the mountainous area. This is because the agriculture sub-catchments in the coastal area are very dependent on groundwater than rainfall or surface water (See Figure 19 & Table 3), while the reverse happens in the mountainous agriculture sub-catchments (See Figure 20 & Table 3). Thus, during the UKHI dry weather scenario some other strategies should be applied instead in the mountainous region such as construction of storage facilities (dams, cisterns etc.) to capture the runoff. 28 Groundw ater Storage All Nodes, All months Changing crop pattern OSU Core scenario Reference Rehabilitation traditional irrigation channels UKHI Dry Scenario Using closed conduits for irrigation Using drip Irrigation 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2025 2026 2027 2029 2030 2031 2032 Figure 16 Strategies effect on all aquifers storage during the Reference Scenario Groundw ater Storage Aquifer: Qaternary Aquifer, All months Changing crop pattern OSU Core scenario Reference Rehabilitation traditional irrigation channels UKHI Dry Scenario Using closed conduits for irrigation Using drip Irrigation 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2025 2026 2027 2029 2030 2031 2032 Figure 17 Strategies effect on the Quaternary aquifer storage during the UKHI Scenario 29 Groundw ater Storage Selected Aquifers (2/3), All months Changing crop pattern OSU Core scenario Reference Rehabilitation traditional irrigation channels UKHI Dry Scenario Using closed conduits for irrigation Using drip Irrigation 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec Apr Jul Nov Feb May Sep Dec Mar Jul Oct Feb May Aug Dec Mar Jul 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030 2032 2033 Figure 18 Strategies effect on Mesozoic and Shallow aquifers' storage during the UKHI Scenario 30 Demand Site Inflow s and Outflow s Scenario: Reference, All months, Selected Demand Sites (14/21) Consumption Inflow from Qaternary Aquifer Inflow from Wadi surdud Outflow to Qaternary Aquifer Precipitation 350 300 250 200 150 100 Million Cubic Meter 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 -500 -550 2008 Figure 19: Coastal catchments inflows and outflows Demand Site Inflow s and Outflow s Scenario: Reference, All months, Selected Demand Sites (7/21) Consumption Inflow from Mesozoic Aquifer Inflow from Shaloow aquifer Outflow to Fug Alhusain Outflow to Mesozoic Aquifer Outflow to Shaloow aquifer Outflow to Wadi Alahgur Outflow to Wadi Dyan Outflow to Wadi Kasaba Outflow to Wadi Rugum Outflow to Wadi Sara Precipitation All Others 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 Million Cubic Meter 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 -500 -550 2008 Figure 20: Mountainous catchments inflows and outflows 31 13. Adaptation strategies prioritization based on stakeholder criteria weighting Based on analysis of the collected data on water vulnerability in the case study area and the stakeholder consultation findings several adaptation strategies which address water scarcity in the case study area were identified. A WEAP application for the study area was then developed based on the collected data such as, water use sectors and consumption (domestic and agriculture), available conventional and unconventional water resources (ground water, surface water, wastewater), land use, future projection of (population, agriculture area) climate parameters (rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind etc.) and climate change trend. The results of the WEAP application in terms of water saving as evaluating criterion are arranged in respected manner as follows: 1. Using drip irrigation 2. Using closed conduits 3. Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation channels 4. Changing crop pattern From the previous result it can be seen that each strategy could be adopted to alleviate water scarcity but in terms of affordability the situation certainly will be different. Therefore, the stakeholder consultation is one of the main activities which are needed in order to discuss their concerns regarding issues of water scarcity in the study area and suggested strategies. Meetings were conducted with ten stakeholders and decision makers in the case study area to evaluate the suggested strategies in terms of the following: a. Capital cost (implementation cost) It includes cost of infrastructure implementation (building, instruments, rehabilitation, further treatment, conducting training or awareness campaigns etc.) b. Maintenance cost Cost to maintain infrastructure in a good condition to insure sustainability c. Quantity of water saving The quantity of water can be offered by an adapted strategy 32 d. Sustainability The infrastructure life time of an adapted strategy with a proper maintenance. e. Knowledge to implement and maintain Eligibility of a stakeholder to implement and maintain a strategy f. Preservation of local practice and lifestyle To which extent an adapted strategy, compared to another, can insure that a stakeholder will continue his existing way of living without shifting to another job. A structured questionnaire was prepared addressing the adopted strategies and their evaluation criteria (Annex A). First, the purpose, the structure of the questionnaire and the adapted strategies were explained to the stakeholders associated with the WEAP application criteria results of water quantity saved and number of years each strategy can cope with demand. After discussion with the stakeholders the information provided were filled into the questionnaire, in addition to any provided remarks, complains and reservations. The result of stakeholder consultations regarding the suggested strategies and evaluation criteria are summarized in Table 4. This information were analyzed with changing the qualitative information into qualitative values and then input into the MCA-WEAP (Model 4 in the Annex A) for determining preferences and prioritization for adaptation strategies. 13.1 Discussion of results: Changing crop pattern It can be seen from Module 6 that changing crop pattern from Qat to coffee trees have high priority than others strategy though the applied area is about 255.1 ha which is just 1% of the suggested irrigated area by drip irrigation or using closed conduits (24413 ha). This is because water saved by replacing Qat trees in this tiny area is very high i.e. about half what is saved by the area suggested for closed conduits strategy which is 96 times bigger. This reflects the huge amount of water consumed by Qat trees (up to 90% of total irrigation water). Conveying irrigation water through closed conduits For improving irrigation efficiency this strategy come in the same rank with drip irrigation method. However, this method is more practical and less expensive than drip irrigation method. This is because the closed conduits are usually plastic pipes or fabric pipes, though 33 in the latter some of the irrigation water is evaporated from fabric skin. This practice has already been practiced by some farmers and it is, comparatively, easy to afford, implement and maintained. Using drip irrigation This strategy is the best in terms of water saving and sustaining the farmers existing life style but more expensive compared with closed conduits strategy as it contains some sophisticated tools (pumps, drippers, regulators etc.) which needs some training on operation and maintenance. If this strategy is subsidized it will be then the best in terms of water saving and can be afforded by a wide sector of farmers which are mostly poor. Rehabilitation of irrigation channels and structures This strategy is the last one in ranking though it is the most practiced strategy in the study area. This traditional method costs farmers lots of money every year to maintain irrigation channels and structures in a good condition. In addition, the life time of rehabilitated channels and irrigation structures is very short compared to other aforementioned strategies especially when they are subjected to frequent flush floods. 34 14. Policy and Institutional Issues 14.1 Institutional set up Recognizing climate change threats, the government of Yemen ratified the United Nations framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 21 February 1996 and immediately initiated a process to meet its commitments under the Convention. With the GEF/Netherlands financial/technical assistance (1997-2001), the GOY completed important enabling activities for climate change including, the Initial national communication (INC), and currently the Second National Communication (SNC) is underway and about to be finalized (2008-2010). The creation of the Ministry of Environment & Tourism (now Ministry of Water and Environment) in May 2001 (Decree No. 46/2001) constituted an important step. By lifting environmental concerns to cabinet level, it has raised hopes that environment protection will receive better attention in the future. In June 2001 the Environment Protection Council (EPC) was replaced by the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) (Decree No. 99/2000). This “new” agency is entrusted with a wider mandate, including the formulation of policies, strategies and action plans, drafting and implementation of pilot programs, drafting of environment-related laws and by-laws, provision of technical feed back and advice on regional and global environmental conventions, coordination, monitoring and evaluation of activities of different environmental protection agencies, establishing of contacts with regional and global agencies dealing with environmental issues, and implementation of a public awareness program. The Government of Yemen has made important steps for setting a comprehensive development strategy both on the policy as well as the institutional framework levels. The MDG needs assessment and the Third National Development Plan for Poverty Reduction have established national development priorities and are expected to guide future efforts. The National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) is in the process of updating. The role of 35 the EPA has been strengthened by the incorporation of the Minister of Water and Environment into the Cabinet, stronger coordination functions and an expanded mandate. The government of Yemen is intending to develop a new policy framework that has the strength and components of meeting the country needs, including enhancing governance through decentralization and public participation; social investment and poverty reduction targeting vulnerable sectors and the rural poor; preserving the environment by rationalizing water use and combating desertification; and ensuring effective monitoring and evaluation, follow-up and donor coordination systems, among others. UNDP’s support to Yemen in terms of sustainable environmental development has focused assistance towards compliance with international environmental conventions, aiming at (a) promoting environmental governance in mainstreaming sustainable development and implementing relevant policy, legal and regulatory measures, and (b) capacity development to implement global environmental conventions primarily through UNDP-GEF portfolio for Climate Change, the Yemen’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC (19982001), Top-up Enabling Activity (1999-2001) and Yemen’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2008-2010). At present, two UNDP/GEF projects are supporting the government of Yemen to address the issue of climate change in Yemen; 1)National Adaptation Action Plan (NAPA) has been prepared to broadly communicate to the international community priority activities that address Yemen’s urgent needs for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. 2) National Capacity Self Assessment (NCSA) is preparing national strategy and action plan for addressing capacity constraints faced by the GOY to respond to the global conventions including the UNFCCC. The Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), along with its acting authorities, are currently the main responsible parties and coordinators for implementing water and environment policies. In reality, the actual implementation of policies depends on a wide range of entities from both public and private sectors, on national and local levels. The 36 MWE makes efforts to integrate the water and environment policy into other policies developed by the country, through establishment of closer coordination and cooperation with other ministries and authorities. In response, the other authorities/relevant bodies have shown their willingness to accept their responsibility for implementing the water and environmental protection plans in their sectoral policies, and to include it in the overall development policy of the country. The integration of the water and environment policies in other policies as a process is becoming more intensive and more comprehensible now than before, and is reflected in the strategic and programme documents adopted by concerned authorities in the country. In accordance with its responsibilities, the MWE carries out regular collection, processing, formatting, and proper keeping of the data from monitoring networks of all water and environment media in areas of air, water, soil, noise and waste. It also submits data to the UNFCCC and other relevant international organizations. The Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPIC), along with other concerned international organizations, for example ESCWA, are currently leading the process of development of National Set of Environmental Indicators for Yemen Republic. Working Groups have been formed for verification and supplementing the indicators for the objective of their final adoption for the chapters: air, biological diversity, climate change, soil, waste, water, agriculture, energy, fishery, transport, health, and tourism. Specifically for climate change, the Yemen Republic ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol. The MPIC coordinated all activities related to ratification of the Convention and Protocol including activities on raising public awareness During the preparation of Yemen’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC (19982001), the Climate Change Unit (CCU) was set up within the Environment Protection Authority (EPA). Furthermore, more recently, a National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) was established as an advisory body for policy-making related to climate change issues. It is composed of key governmental agencies. However, such committee has not yet included academia non-governmental organizations and private entities. 37 14. 2 Strategic, legislative and policy issues In addition to the institutional set-up, the Yemen Republic in addressing climate change is focusing its activities at several levels: strategic, legislative, regional, bilateral, and multilateral levels. At a strategic level, the climate change issue was included in the National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP). Furthermore, the Government of Yemen has recognized the possibilities for achieving the goals of economic, social, and sustainable development, as well as those for transfer of knowledge and technologies and promotion of environmental investments through the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. The CDM practical application lies in its contributing to the general commitment of the Government of Yemen towards attraction of investments, in this case manifested through "environmental investments". In 2007, the Government has adopted a program for the first commitment period 2008-2012 according to the Kyoto Protocol. Carbon financing is treated as an additional source of financing within a national strategy for environmental investments. At the legislative level, climate change issues are yet to be incorporated within amendments for the law on environment, including details on preparation of inventories of GHG emissions and removals by sinks as well as an action plan on measures and activities to abate increase of GHG emissions and to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. In future amendment of the law on environment, it is stipulated that a national plan for climate change be adopted, for the purpose of stabilization of GHG concentration at a level that would prevent any dangerous anthropogenic impact on the climate system within a timeframe sufficient to allow the ecosystems to naturally adapt to the climate change, in accordance with the principle of international cooperation and the goals of the national social and economic development. In addition, provisions on the Clean Development Mechanism will be introduced into the amended law on environment. For the purpose of providing consistent and coordinated implementation of the policy in the areas of its competence, except for the regular annual programming of the activities, the MPIC has adopted the Third Strategic Development Plan for the period 2006-2011. The plan 38 contains precise strategic objectives and environmental priorities, as well as activities for their realization for the five-year period. Special attention is given to the development element, and to the identification of the necessary human and financial resources that will enable feasible implementation of the plan. At the strategic level, environmental policy in Yemen (as a component of sustainable development policy as well as by itself) is covered by the following documents: National Strategy for Sustainable Development (NSSD) and the Second National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP). Evidently, if not yet accomplished, the principles of sustainable development need to be incorporated in the constitution of Yemen, as an amendment, as well as their incorporation into the law on environment. The National Strategy for Sustainable Development (NSSD) has recently been implemented (2008) through UNDP-Yemen, and in coordination with EPA. The strategy identifies several key driving priorities for making Yemen Republic sustainable: Arabian Gulf Council (AGC) membership, establishing a policy and legal framework (as the backbone of any strategy development and implementation), administrative and enforcement capacity for environmental improvement, structural changes in energy pricing, comprehensive strategic work and plans in rural development; identification of unemployment as a key social issue and identification of small and medium-sized enterprises, infrastructure, and industry as solid industrial groundwork.. A National Water Resource Strategy for the country has been developed and is well under implementation. It is considered as a key priority and driver for many other systems and sectors. Thus, adaptation issues in water sector can be considered as a priority, taken in account climate change conditions and risks in future. Adaptation measures related to water resources are divided into two major classes: adaptation of the supply and adaptation of the demands. The first class is linked to the reduced available water resources and the other one to the increased water demands. The supply adaptations mainly could be realized through rehabilitation of the existing physical 39 infrastructure, construction of a new water infrastructure, and adapted management of the existing water management systems to climate change conditions. The demand adaptation can be implemented by improved efficiency, technological change, and market/price-driven transfers to other activities. All types of measures, classified into two groups – structural (hard engineering solutions) and non-structural – can be presented for each domain of intervention (irrigation, water supply, flood and droughts, erosion and sedimentation, water resources management, monitoring, and water quality). Some of the adaptation measures that are considered as intersectoral are presented in this report. The high priority adaptation measures that were not considered in this report and need to be accounted in future studies are the following: - Implementation of improved design standards for each domain of adaptation intervention. - For example, in the domain of irrigation and water supply for the population: reducing of the water losses by reconstruction of the water delivery network of both irrigation and water supply systems; implementation of water efficiency schemes; water pricing; credit facilities; insurance. For water supply, adaptation measures are: use of a dual water supply network and other sources of water (for drinking and for technical purposes – watering parks and lawns, washing the streets, etc.); recycling of water for non-potable use and construction of new water supply systems in rural areas. - For floods and droughts, the following adaptation measures are necessary: rehabilitation of the existing and construction of new flood protection and drainage systems; improvement of forecasting system; adaptation of the operational management practices of the capacity of the reservoirs to the climate change conditions including droughts and floods; upgrade of wastewater and storm-water systems; preparation of flood defense and protection plans; initiating insurance schemes against flood and drought damage. 40 - Measures for the domain of erosion and sedimentation include: reforestation of upstream basin catchments; technical protective measures for torrent regulation and regular dredging of the sediments from dams and reservoirs . - In the domain of water resources management, the following structural measures are suggested: increase of reservoir capacities; integration of separate reservoirs into a single system; construction of new dams (reservoirs); and water transfer from one drainage basin to another or within a drainage basin (for example, from MaribAl-Juff area to Sana'a Basin, or from Surdod basin to Al-Mahweet and Twilah urban highland areas). 63 - The most successful structural adaptation measure in the domain of water quality is the construction of wastewater treatment plants, especially for the larger cities in the country. - The structural measures for adaptation in the domain of monitoring are needed: they lead to improvement of data processing; implementation of the predictive models in real time; and strengthening of the capacities of the institutions responsible for monitoring and provision of sufficient funds on a regular basis for monitoring activities. - For the purpose of illustration, some examples of dealing with institutional and legal measures and identification, assessment and mitigation of negative climate change impacts, were given in Tables 5 and 6. 14.3 Constraints and Gaps for Vulnerability Assessment Several major constraints and gaps were identified during preparation of this study on the vulnerability assessment. The most persisting one is a problem of data availability, consistency, and transparency. Existing monitoring stations in climate and groundwater conducted by the Meteorological agency and Hydro-Service in the country are facing permanent problems in organization and dissemination of data, especially when dealing with 41 the meteorological agency of the country, the only agency that has the ability and capacity to update government units and concerned agencies with climate data, free of charge or with little charge. In addition, some other problems exist, for example, slow modernization of equipments and limitation of monitoring network stations, etc. Therefore, improvement of the hydrological monitoring stations (for surface and especially for groundwater) including stations for monitoring the water quality, improvement of the data processing, implementation of the predictive models in real time and modernization of the equipment (in the field, in laboratory, software, and hardware) are of the highest importance in the near future. Soil monitoring does not exist in the country, as well as real groundwater monitoring through observation and peizometric wells. Basic maps and databases are limited, and the existing ones are quite old and some are unavailable (vegetation maps, land-use map, etc.). There is a need for increasing the technical capacities for monitoring and updating of basic data sets. Modern tools for vulnerability assessment are needed almost in all vulnerable sectors (hardware, software, and training of personnel). Training of experts in modern technologies for adaptation is also requested, although some short training sessions have been offered to some national experts, through the implementation of NCAP project by UNDP and EPA, and with coordination with WEC, during the year 2006 and 2007 . Determination of the climate system components should be established by setting of a new and modern climate observing system which would be established over the whole territory of the Yemen Republic, that is, in all climatic areas, as well as by all climate parameters. It means that an automated climate observing system should be established by which the following climate system components would be performed in every moment and their changes: daily, ten-day period, monthly, seasonal, annual, and many-year period in all climatic areas in Yemen Republic. Establishment of an automated climate observing system in Yemen, as well as in other countries is necessary because of the following aspects: 42 1. Measurements and observations should be performed in a unique and non-subjective way; 2. Investigation of data homogeneity should be performed as well as testing of the quality of obtained information; 3. Information should be delivered to the Climate Change Unit (CCU) or other established national climate centers, daily by special climate telecommunication units or by Internet communications tools; 4. The way of data processing should be performed by unique methodology of processing; 5. Results of the measurements should be delivered to the public precisely, and they should be comparable with other average climate data which are available at each meteorological station in all climatic areas in the Republic of Yemen; 6. Information should be accessible to the public by internet and its exchange should be also performed for the necessity of other users and media. 14.4 List of Projects or programs proposed for financing In the process of preparation of the case study data and upon the analysis of adaptation elements and strategies, some priority projects were identified and listed below, for water resources sector and adaptations and for other related sectors. For the water resources sector, the projects proposed for future financing are: - Adaptation Measures for Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change of the Irrigation System in the drainage basins of Wadi Surdod, Wadi Zabeed, and Wadi Moor, in Hudeidah Governorate. - Development of a Reliable Methodology for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Yemen Republic, under Climate Change Conditions, based on previous climate change research and current case studies conducted on some basins. - Development of Adaptation Measures to Combat Negative Effects of Climate Change in Agricultural Production in Yemen Republic. 43 Table 5. Institutional and legal measures Problem Identified No approximated Legislation and strategic development documents from climate change aspect 1 Measures Legislation approximation and strategic development documents from climate change aspect Actions Incorporate climate change adaptation measures in: - Spatial plan - Agricultural strategic development documents - Strategic and planning documents stemming from the water law (development of national strategy on water, finalization of water master plan, and drainage basin management plans, including change of available and demanded water resources due to climate change impacts, priority by-laws) - Physical and urban plans - Strategic impact assessment - Action plan on environment and children's health 44 Responsible party MPIC, MAI, MWE, MOH, MOT Time frame 2011/2012 Table 6. Measures for identification, assessment and mitigation of negative climate change impacts Problem Identified Data unavailability for all sectors Continuous data collection, development of databases and their management 2 Climate change vulnerability 3 Responsible party Time frame Development of database of extremes (droughts and floods) MWE, MOH, MPIC, MAI 2011/2013 Preparation of basic maps in GIS format to a scale of 1: 50,000 (soil, vegetation, erosion. ..etc MWE, MAI, MOMR 2011/2013 Measures Adaptation measures Actions Development of adaptation programme on climate change in forestry sector Production of native species plants and afforestation of hundreds of hectare of bare land per year Identification and introduction of species resistant to climate change, implementing measures for agricultural support Introducing adaptation measures and techniques concerning climate change (organic matter turnover/water protection and agro-techniques) Bura'a directorate Modernization of irrigation systems 45 MWE, MAI 2011/2013 MWE, MAI 2011/2013 MWE, MAI 2011-2015 MAI, 2011-2013 MWE, 2011-2014 15. Conclusion and recommendations The study area has special social and economical importance because it includes major agricultural activities which support many cities beyond local borders with verity of crops. By analyzing current and future water resources vulnerability due to climate change and driving various water demand sectors it can be concluded that: The area generally suffers from escalating pressures due to the high consumption of water by agriculture in order to cope with increase demand by the population increase in crops demanding cities. The dominant water consumption in the coastal area is agriculture which consumes 97% of the abstracted ground water and only 3% for municipal use. Up to date there is more than 5000 borehole in the coastal area alone which eventfully leads to overexploitation of groundwater unless some strategies to stabilize water supply and demand patterns are introduced. At the present time, annual withdrawals from the Quaternary aquifer exceed renewable resources where the annual drop in water depth reaches 0.3m and will likely to continue into the future in the absence of a vigorous policy intervention. In the mountainous region it seems that groundwater is nearly stable due to higher rainfall compared with coastal area which leads the people to rely more on rainfall as main source for agriculture and groundwater as a supplementary source where 66% of abstracted water is used for agriculture and 33% for domestic purposes. The climate variability and climate change is less influential than current and predicted patterns of agricultural and household water consumption. The choice of adaptation strategy depends on the influencing conditions of the particular case study region, including both physical and stakeholder inputs. For the coastal area the implementation of drip irrigation was identified as the best strategy in terms of water savings and application of water on farmlands followed by conveying irrigation water through closed conduits. As the majority of farmers are poor and barely coping with existing living costs, subsidization or donor support would be needed for implementation. 46 For the mountainous region, improved efficiencies through drip irrigation and improved water distribution systems will have demonstrable effects when combined with other supporting adaptation initiatives such as water harvesting/diverting structures (e.g. dams, cisterns etc.). Farmers along the wadi reaches identified improving indigenous methods (e.g. Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation channels) for wadi flow use as the highest priority initiative. The farming communities along this wadi are well aware of the need to harvest wadi storm flows. 47 Table 4: Summary results of scenarios analysis and stakeholders meetings-Wadi Surdud Adaptation Strategy Cost of implementation Sustainability Criteria for Evaluating Strategy *Water saving Preserves local practice and lifestyle Knowledge to implement and maintain Using drip irrigation high ($800-1000) per hectare (total $21,972,150) required for purchasing of equipments, implementation and training. high (long lifetimes for equipments with proper maintenance up to 15 years), . (Increases crop yields by 20%) Very high (technique saves 157,291,920 m3 per year compared to business as usual; (assuming 25% of water reused) high; farmer continue as they have for generations Medium: with enough training farmers can implement and maintain the system. Some farmers already have such a system Using closed conduits medium ($600-700) per hectare (total $16,868,775) required to purchase pipes and install them medium ($700-800) per hectare required (total $21,994,500) this includes sediment removal and rebuilding the destroyed channels and lining with cement mortar; in addition protection with gabions if needed High($1200-1500) per hectare (total $344,385) required to purchase remove Qat trees and plant Coffee plants high (long lifetimes for pipes with proper maintenance up to 20 years) high (technique saves 91,058,000 m3 per year compared to business as usual medium; farmers continue as they have for generations Medium: many farmers already implemented such a system and well maintained medium; farmers continue as they have for generations Low: all the farmers are familiar with this traditional irrigation system, and practicing and maintaining it for centuries high; farmers continue as they have for generations High: all the farmers are familiar with this method Rehabilitate traditional irrigation channel Changing crop patterns aData low (less lifetime 5-10 years where damage of rehabilitated channels depends on frequent high floods. (assuming 15% of water reused) medium (technique saves 66,346,800 m3 per year compared to business as usual (assuming 10% of water reused) High, long life time with adequate service up to 40 years low; saves 44,925,240 m3 per year compared to business as usual, appearing obtained from WEAP modeling. 48 Acknowledgment This study was financed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) which aims at assisting Yemen with the enabling activities necessary to prepare and report the Second National Communication to the Conference of Parties (CoP) in accordance with guidance of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The study is implemented under supervision of the Environmental Protection Authority in Yemen (EPA). The authors would like to thank Eng. Mahmoud Shedewah, the chairman of EPA Yemen and Eng. Anwar Noaman, the head of the climate change unit for their support. 49 References Adnan, M. 2002. Water resources management in arid/semi-arid basins. PhD thesis, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt. CSO, 2008 .Statistical Yearbook 200. Central Statistical Organization (CSO), Ministry of Planning & International Cooperation, Yemen. FAO,1989 .Crop stage growth and Crop Coefficients. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.24. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007. Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Geneva, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. MOAI, 2007 .Agricultural Statistics, Year Book 2007. General Dept. of Agricultural Statistics & Documentation, Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation (MOAI),Yemen. NWRA, 2008 .Well inventory in the Tihama plain (Wadi Surdud). National Water Resources Authority (NWRA), Ministry Of Water And Environment, Yemen. O’Brien, K., Sygna, L., and Haugen, J. E. (2004) Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway, Climatic Change 64(1-2) 193-225. SAWAS, 1996, "Surface Water Assessment of Upper Wadi Surdud", Technical Report No 10, National Water and Sanitation Authority (NWSA), Yemen, and TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience, Delft, the Netherlands. Sieber J, Swartz C and Huber-Lee A (2005) Water Evaluation and Planning System User Guide for WEAP 21. Stockholm Environment Institute. Tellus Institute, Boston, Massachusetts. Smit, B. and Wandel, J. (2006) Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability, Global Environmental Change 16 282-292. Van der Gun, J.A.M. , 1986. Water resources of the Wadi Surdud area. Main report. Report WRAY-4, YOMINCO/TNO, Sana'a/Delft. Van der Gun, J.A.M., and Wesseling, H., 1991. Water resources of the Wadi Surdud area: pilot study on water resources management. Report WRAY- 22, GDWRS/TNO, Sana'a/Delft. Van der Gun, Jac A.M. , and Abdul Aziz Ahmed, 1995. The Water Resources of Yemen. A summary and digest of available information. Report WRAY-35. MOMR, General Department of Hydrogeology, Sana'a, Republic of Yemen, and TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience, Delft, The Netherlands. Yates, D., et al., 2005. WEAP21 – A demand, priority, and preference driven water planningmodel. Part 1: Model characteristics. Water International, 30 (4): 487-500. 50 Annex A 51 Module 4: Evaluation Criteria Summary of evaluation criteria Menu Start page List of criteria Type score of 1 to 100 Short name Descriptive Name Type of measurement unit Measurement unit cost to build it Quantitative; low score best Thousands US Dolars cost to maintain it Quantitative; low score best Thousands US Dolars Physical Water saving water saved when a strategy is adopted Quantitative; high score best Million m3/year Physical Sustainability life time for adopted strategy Quantitative; high score best years Physical Applicable land Land applied under a strategy Quantitative; high score best hectares Module 1: Vulnerability Economic Capital cost Module 2: Stakeholders Economic Maintenance cost s1 ls1 Module 3: Initiatives Module 4: Criteria Module 4: Criteria list Module 5: Weighting Social Knowledge to implement & maintain the amount of learning required to implement the strategy Qualitative (1-100); high score best score of 1 to 100 Social Preserving local livelihood farmers continue reasonably their way of living Qualitative (1-100); high score best score of 1 to 100 Module 6: Ranking Module 7: Help, Reports Exit 52 Module 4: Evaluation Criteria Criteria scores (central estimates) Menu Start page Module 1: Vulnerability Module 2: Stakeholders Module 3: Initiatives Module 4: Criteria Module 4: Criteria Scores Module 5: Weighting Module 6: Ranking Module 7: Help, Reports Exit click here to enter a range i Enter criteria scores Criteria short Maintenance Capital cost Water saving Sustainability cost name>>> Applicable land Knowledge to implement & maintain Preserving local livelihood Type of Quantitative; Quantitative; Quantitative; Qualitative (1- Qualitative (1Quantitative; Quantitative; high score high score 100); high 100); high measurement low score best low score best high score best best best score best score best unit>>> Thousands Thousands US Dolars Million m3/year years hectares 22000 1100 66.34 10 29326 100 45 21000 1000 157.3 15 24413.5 0 90 Using closed conduits 17000 850 91 20 24413.5 90 60 Changing crop Pattern 344 30 44.9 40 255.1 95 30 Units >>> US Dolars Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation structures (channels) Using drip irrigation method 53 score of 1 to score of 1 to 100 100 Module 6: Ranking of Iniatives Total central scores Menu Start page Module 1: Vulnerability Module 2: Stakeholders Results Criteria short Maintenance Capital cost Water saving Sustainability cost name>>> Criteria weighting >>> very high (17%) Applicable land Knowledge to implement & maintain Preserving local livelihood very high (17%) very high (17%) high (13%) very high (17%) average (10%) average (10%) very strong very strong strong strong average average Total central score 0 0 7 3 17 10 5 42 0 1 17 5 14 0 9 45 Using closed conduits 0 1 10 7 14 9 6 46 Changing crop Pattern 17 17 5 13 0 10 3 64 Module 3: Initiatives Module 4: Criteria Module 5: Weighting Module 6: Ranking Module 6: Central scores Module 7: Help Save and exit options Stakeholder very strong consensus >>> Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation structures (channels) Using drip irrigation method 54 Module 6: Ranking of Adaptation Initiatives by central scores Menu Final ranking (by central scores) Start page Total central score Module 1: Vulnerability Initiative \ Score Module 2: Stakeholders Changing crop Pattern 64 Module 3: Initiatives Using closed conduits 46 Using drip irrigation method 45 Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation structures (channels) 42 Module 4: Criteria Module 5: Weighting Module 6: Ranking Module 6: Rank (central) Module 7: Help Save and exit options 55 Implementation costs Maintenance cost ُEvaluation criteria Water Sustainability saving Adapted strategies (Infrastructure life time) Thousand Dollars Rehabilitation of traditional irrigation channels Using drip irrigation method Using closed conduits Changing crop pattern Thousand Dollars MCM/y years 66.34 157.3 91 44.9 Weight 1-5 56 Preserving local livelihood 1-100 Knowledge to implement and maintain 1-100 Remarks Annex B Photographs (Only 2 photographs were included in this document. For obtaining the rest of the photos, please refer to the preliminary draft submitted at earlier time) 57 Picture 1: Wadi Surdud base flow and water use upstream of Khamees Bani Sa'ad Picture 5: Meeting with Farmers in Khamis Bani Sa'ad 58 59