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Overview of Hudson River Sustainable Shorelines Project NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Sea Level Rise Estimates for New York City* - By 2020s: 2-5” (5-10”**) - By 2050s: 7-12” (19-29”) - By 2080s: 12-23” (41-55”) * Climate Risk Information, New York City Panel on Climate Change (original source: Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research) ** Rapid ice-melt scenario – based on acceleration of recent rates of ice melt in the Greenland and west Antarctica ice sheets NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Hudson River Tidal Shorelines • Over 300 miles: – Natural 47% – Hard engineered 41% – Remnant engineered 12% NYS Department of Environmental Conservation How will we manage shorelines & erosion in the future? • Harden to reduce erosion? • Construct dikes? • Use “soft” engineering approaches? • Allow shorelines to migrate landward? NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Effects on Adjacent Habitats NYS Department of Environmental Conservation NRC and CICEET Roles • National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Mitigating Shore Erosion Along Sheltered Coasts • Cooperative Institute on Coastal and Estuarine Environmental Technology (CICEET) – Request for Proposals $$ NYS Department of Environmental Conservation CICEET’s 3 Key Questions 1. Determine the tradeoffs in ecosystem services that arise from land use management, shoreline hardening, and vegetative approaches to erosion control. NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Ecosystem Services • The benefits provided to humans by naturally functioning ecosystems • Nature’s contributions to human well-being See February 2009 issue of Ecological Society of America’s Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment NYS Department of Environmental Conservation General Ecosystem Services of Tidal Shorelines • • • • • Provide vital habitat Dissipate energy Regulate vital processes Serve as dispersal corridors Support high biodiversity and produce plants and animals Dave Strayer. 2008. Ecology of freshwater shore zones, unpublished. NYS Department of Environmental Conservation CICEET’s 3 Key Questions 2. Determine the short- and long-term costs of different erosion prevention measures, using long-term forecasts of erosion control performance in the context of sea level rise. 3. Transfer new knowledge and tools to relevant stakeholders. NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Short and Long-term Cost Calculations • Forecast erosion control performance in context of sea level rise scenarios • Consider broad array of costs: – Capital and operating costs – Impacts on adjacent upland properties – Impacts on public uses – Impacts on ecosystem services $$$ NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Engage Key Stakeholders and Shoreline Decision-Makers • • • • Property owners Experts and consultants Government regulators Policy and law makers NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Geographic Scope • Tappan Zee Bridge to Troy Dam NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Collaborative Process • • • Active engagement of intended users throughout the process Formal structure of teams with clear roles Consensus process NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Link to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives • • • • • • NYS Sea Level Rise Task Force Rising Waters Hudson Valley Climate Change Network NYS Ocean & Great Lakes Initiative NYSERDA initiatives Others TBD NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Challenges • Technical challenges in ecosystem studies, economic analyses, and outreach • Complex array of incentives, disincentives, policies and other factors guide erosion control • Diverse stakeholders • Decision-makers often focus on minimizing short-term costs • Climate change unknowns NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Opportunity! • Wider acceptance of climate change adaptation imperatives • Excellent team and partners • Vital issue NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Betsy Blair Manager, Hudson River NERR Manager, Hudson River Habitat Protection Program NYS Department of Environmental Conservation (845) 889-4745 x113 [email protected] NYS Department of Environmental Conservation