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Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals,1990-2003
Goal 8 - Develop a global partnership for development
The Millennium Declaration embodies partnership among developed and developing
countries. Goal 8 addresses ways in which developed countries can assist developing
countries to achieve the other seven goals. It calls for measures to ensure debt sustainability
in the long term, an open, equitable, rule-based, predictable and non-discriminatory
multilateral trading and financial system, and measures to address the special needs of least
developed, landlocked and small island developing States.
Delivery on the new pledges to increase official development assistance (ODA) at the
Monterrey Conference on Financing for Development will reverse the decline of development
aid of the 1990s, with more assistance focussed on poverty reduction, education and health.
Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC), 27 countries are benefiting from
a total of $51 billion of debt relief 1, substantially reducing the payments required to service
their debt. Maintaining these and other countries’ debt at sustainable levels will require further
debt relief and sound debt management policies by the countries themselves.
Even though they were reduced in the 1990s, Tariff protection and extensive trade
distortions, particularly tariff escalation based on increased value added and high levels of
agricultural support by developed countries, continue to pose obstacles to development,
especially for the least developed countries. The multilateral trade negotiations, which stalled
in Cancún in September 2003, must be restarted in order to achieve a non-discriminatory
international trading system.
A meaningful partnership between rich and poor countries also needs to address developing
countries’ access to technology, medicines and jobs for their growing populations. Goal 8
therefore includes indicators that monitor factors as diverse as Internet users and youth
unemployment.
How the indicators are calculated Country data
Official development assistance
Indicators of official development assistance
The Monterrey Conference on Financing for
Provision by donor countries of official development
Development in 2002 came at a critical time
assistance is monitored on the basis of the following
for development assistance. In 1970, the
indicators: the total ODA to all developing countries
United Nations General Assembly proposed a
as percentage of donors’ national income, the ODA
target for ODA of 0.7 per cent of donors’
to least developed countries as a percentage of
national income.2 For many years afterwards,
donors’ national income, the share of ODA that is
the collective effort of members of OECD’s
allocated to basic social services and the share of
Development Assistance Committee (DAC)
ODA that is untied.
hovered around half this level, but during the
1990s it fell by about one-third, reaching an all
time low of 0.22 per cent in 2000–2001 (see figure 8). Within this total, aid to least developed
countries fell from about 0.09 per cent of donors’ national income a decade ago to about 0.05
per cent in 2001.
In 2002, however, ODA rose by 5 per cent in real terms, to $57 billion in current prices, as
donors started to deliver on commitments made in connection with the Monterrey
Conference. The ratio of ODA to donors’ national income rose to 0.23 per cent in 2002 and
1
full delivery of Monterrey-related commitments should result in an increase to 0.26 per cent of
donors’ national income by 2006.
Chart 12. In 2002 only five countries
reached the overall level of 0.7 per cent
of their GNI, for official development
assistance
Net ODA as percentage of OECD/DAC
donors' gross national income
Denmark
0.96
Norway
0.91
Netherlands
0.82
Luxembourg
0.78
Sweden
0.74
Belgium
0.42
Ireland
0.41
France
0.36
Finland
0.35
Switzerland
0.32
United Kingdom
0.30
Canada
0.28
Germany
0.27
Australia
0.25
Spain
0.25
Portugal
0.24
Austria
0.23
Japan
0.23
New Zealand
0.23
Greece
0.22
Italy
0.20
United States
0.12
Figure 8. ODA, total and to LDCs, as percentage of
OECD/DAC donors' GNI, 1990-2002
0.40
All developing
countries
LDCs
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”,
Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org
(accessed December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.
More recent announcements, such as pledges to boost
AIDS funding, also reflect renewed international
commitment to meet the Millennium Declaration
targets. Nevertheless, total ODA will still be well short
of the amount estimated to be required to ensure that
the Millennium Development Goals are achieved.
Proportion of ODA to basic social services
The World Summit on Social Development at
Copenhagen in 1995 proposed a mutual commitment
between interested developed and developing country
partners to allocate, on average, 20 per cent of ODA
and 20 per cent of the national budget, respectively, to
basic social programmes such as basic education,
health, population and poverty-focused water and
Source: United Nations Statistics Division,
Millennium Indicators Database,
sanitation projects. The share of bilateral, sectorhttp://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed
allocable aid directed towards these basic social
December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.
services rose from around 9 per cent in 1996/97, when
comparable statistics began, to 12 per cent in 1998/99, and to almost 15 per cent in
2000/01.3
Proportion of bilateral ODA
that is untied
Tying aid to procurement from
suppliers in the donor country
reduces cost-effectiveness and
flexibility in implementation.
Recognising this, members of
OECD’s Development Assistance
Committee (DAC) have raised the
share of their aid that is untied from
about 65 per cent to about 80 per
cent over the past decade.4
However, the share of untied aid to
the least developed countries has
not risen at the same rate. In 2001,
Figure 9. Percentage of untied bilateral ODA of
OECD/DAC, 1990-2001
90
85.8
83.2
85
81.1
82.2
81.4
80
78.8
76.5
70
79.1
77.7
75
67.6
65
63.5
65.9
60
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”,
Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org
(accessed December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.
2
'01
the DAC adopted a “Recommendation on Untying Aid to the least developed countries”
intended to spur progress in this area.5
Addressing the special needs of landlocked countries and small island
developing States
Indicators on development assistance to
landlocked countries and small island
developing States
Progress made to address the special needs of
landlocked developing countries and small islands
developing States are assessed on the basis of the
ODA received as a percentage of the GNI.
Landlocked developing countries present
special challenges. They are often far from
markets and the cost of exporting goods is
higher than for other countries. Most have
recorded disappointing economic results. Of
the 24 landlocked developing countries for
which data are available, 15 recorded falls in
real per capita income over the 1990s.
Small island developing States also face specific constraints. They have a narrow resource
base and high costs for energy, small domestic markets and heavy dependence on a few
external and remote markets. They also have little resilience to cope with natural disasters or
resources to protect fragile natural
Figure 10. ODA received by landlocked countries
environments.
as percentage of their GNI*, 1990-2001
Despite their needs, aid to
landlocked countries as a
percentage of their national income
has stayed at around 6 per cent of
their GNI, equivalent to $7.7 billion
in 2001, after rising slightly at the
beginning of the 1990s (see figure
10). Some 35 per cent of bilateral
aid to these countries is being
targeted at social services, while 25
per cent is for economic
infrastructure and production, and
over 20 per cent for budgetary
support and debt relief.
10
9.2
9.3
9
8
7.7
7.3
7
7.1
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.0
6
6.4
6.4
6.0
5
'90
'91
* Excludes
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
Afghanistan for which GNI is not available.
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”,
Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org
(accessed December 2003); based on data provided by Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development, Development .Assistance
Committee.
ODA received by SIDS as a percentage of their GNI fell between 1990 and 2001, from 2.6
per cent to 0.9 per cent, or $1.7 billion in 2001 (see figure 11). However, the SIDS grouping
includes countries with very diverse incomes per capita (from least developed countries to
high-income countries) and thus with diverse ODA/GNI ratios; within the group, a number of
SIDS now need less aid, having successfully diversified their economies by developing
tourism, offshore banking, or clothing or other light industry.
Currently, nearly 40 per cent of bilateral aid to SIDS goes to social services, a further 25 per
cent to economic infrastructure and production and 20 per cent to programme/budgetary
support. Environmental challenges have arisen in some SIDS as a result of the rapid
development of infrastructure and population growth in fragile ecosystems. Tackling these
problems will require innovation in aid instruments.
3
'01
Figure 11. Official development assistance to small island developing States a as
proportion of their GNI, 1990-2001
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org
(accessed December 2003); based on data provided by Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
a Estimates are based on available data for the following SIDS: least developed: Cape Verde, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati,
Maldives, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu. middle income: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahrain, Barbados, Belize,
Dominica, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia Fed. States, Palau, Papua New
Guinea, Seychelles, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago. high income:
Bahamas, Cyprus, Malta, Singapore. Excludes United States Virgin Islands which are not eligible for ODA, and Aruba, Cook Islands, Cuba,
Nauru, Netherlands Antilles, Niue, Tokelau, Tuvalu, for which GNI data are not available.
b The sharp increase of the ODA/GNI ratio in 1994 and 1995 is due to emergency and governance assistance provided to Haiti in the wake of
Hurricane Gordon.
4
Market access
Trade promises jobs and income, but these
Indicators on market access
will not materialize if the rules are biased and
International efforts made to remove barriers to
developing countries are unable to compete
trade from developing countries are monitored on
because of developed countries’ domestic
the basis of the share of exports from developing
subsidies and barriers to trade on the one
and from the least developed countries that enter
hand, while they are forced to open their own
developed countries free of duty and on the basis of
goods and services markets to corporations
trends in average tariffs imposed on exports from
based in developed countries on the other
developing countries of agricultural products, textiles
hand. For the least developed countries their
and clothing.
total exports in 2001 represented less than 1
per cent of the value of the exports of
developed countries: $41 billion compared with $4,908 billion. 6
There have, nevertheless, been some improvements in recent years. The initiatives in 2001
by the world’s two largest markets, the European Union’s ‘Everything but Arms’ arrangement
for the LDCs and the United States ‘African Growth and Opportunities Act’, provided
increased trading opportunities for the poorest countries. Such countries as Australia,
Canada, Japan, Norway and Switzerland have also opened up their markets to goods from
least developed countries.
The Doha round of multilateral trade talks, under the aegis of the World Trade Organization,
was promoted as a development round because it was expected to deliver long-sought trade
reforms that would help developing countries to export their goods to richer nations, thereby
spurring their economic growth. These efforts were seriously compromised by the collapse of
negotiations at Cancún in September 2003.
The goal of improving market access is monitored through four indicators reflecting the level
and structure of tariffs imposed on exports from developing countries and the domestic
subsidies provided by developed countries. Both sets of policies distort trade and restrict
growth in developing countries.
Duty free access
The share of exports from developing countries, excluding arms and oil, that entered
developed countries free of duty rose to 66 per cent in 2001 from 57 per cent in 1996, with
some fluctuations in 1997-1998 (see table 27). However, there was no increase in the value
of duty free imports into developed countries from LDCs. This reflects a shift in LDC exports
to products and/or export markets that are not duty free. The trade values show that there
was no increase in the value of duty free imports into developed countries from LDCs but
there is a significant increase in the dutiable imports.
Table 27. Duty-free imports into developed countries from developing countries and LDCs, 1996-2001
(percentage of imports)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Excluding arms
Developing countries
54.8
50.5
49.9
57.2
62.8
65.7
Least developed countries
71.5
67.2
77.7
77.1
75.4
75.3
Excluding arms and oil
Developing countries
Least developed countries
56.8
81.1
51.5
75.5
49.9
75.0
58.1
73.6
65.1
70.5
66.0
69.1
Source: Calculations based on World Trade Organization Integrated Data Base complemented by International Trade Centre (Market Access
Map) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (TRAINS database).
5
Tariffs on agriculture, textiles and clothing
Tariffs imposed by developed countries on exports of agricultural products from developing
countries remained largely unchanged over the period 1996-2001 but they decreased for the
sub-group of least developed countries (see table 28). For textiles and clothing, there was a
slow downward trend in average tariffs for both developing countries in aggregate and the
subset of least developed countries.
One important aspect of tariff rates for developing countries and LDCs is the tariff differential
between textiles and clothing. Tariff rates applied by developed countries on clothing are 50
to 90 per cent higher than those applied on textiles. This extra tariff on processed goods
compared with raw materials acts as a disincentive for developing countries to diversify their
economies away from commodity production and towards more processed, higher-value
goods.
Table 28. Average tariffs applied in developed countries on imports of agricultural goods, textiles and
clothing from developing countries and LDCs, 1996-2001 (percentage)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Agricultural goods
Developing countries
10.5
10.6
10.8
11.0
10.6
10.1
Least developed
6.3
6.0
5.6
5.8
5.3
3.2
countries
Textiles
Developing countries
7.6
7.5
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.7
Least developed
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.4
4.7
4.5
countries
Clothing
Developing countries
12.0
12.0
10.3
11.1
11.5
10.8
Least developed
9.1
9.1
9.0
8.4
8.6
8.5
countries
Source: Calculations based on World Trade Organization Integrated Data Base complemented by International Trade Centre (Market
Access Map) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (TRAINS database).
Note: Average tariffs are obtained by weighting the duties on imports from developing and least developed countries by the volume of
imports in 1999-2001 for each developed market and then aggregating using each developed market’s trade share.
Support and protection for domestic agriculture in developed countries
Developing countries face another obstacle in
exporting into developed country markets:
domestic subsidies in these countries.
Agricultural subsidies are particularly injurious
to developing countries’ trade since
agricultural products represent a large part of
their exports.
Indicators on other policies and interventions to
facilitate market access
Efforts by developed countries to create an open
and non-discriminatory trading system for
developing and least developed countries are also
assessed on the basis of domestic agricultural
subsidies measured as a percentage of total GDP in
OECD countries and on the basis of the support
provided to developing countries to help them build
their trade capacity.
Since 1990 there has been a modest
downward trend in agricultural support by
OECD countries, as measured by OECD’s
total support estimates (TSE) as a percentage
of GDP (see figure 12).7 The higher ratio of TSE to GDP in the European Union reflects not
only the consistently higher levels of support and protection but also - to a lesser extent - the
larger share of agriculture in these economies, compared to the United States.
6
In 2002, support to agriculture
Figure 12. Agriculture support estimate for OECD
in the developed countries
countries as percentage of their GDP, 1990-2002
amounted to $US 318 billion,
3.0
Total OECD
or 1.2 per cent of GDP, down
North America (OECD)
from $US 351 billion, or 1.9 per
2.5
Europe (OECD)
cent of GDP, in 1990. These
Asia and Oceania (OECD)
2.0
amounts dwarf ODA flows, for
instance, which are now
1.5
equivalent to about one fifth of
agricultural subsidies (see
1.0
figure 13). In the case of
0.5
cotton, subsidies were about
$5.8 billion for the crop year
0.0
2001/02, according to the
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
International Cotton Advisory
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators
Committee. This amount
Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided
compares to total international
by OECD.
trade in cotton of 7.7 billion in
2001 and $7.6 million in 2002 respectively. 8 These subsidies increase the supply of cotton
onto world markets and cause prices to fall, with adverse effects on producers of cotton in
developing countries, as in West Africa where cotton accounts for 45-55 per cent of export
revenues in Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali and
79 per cent in Chad.9
Capacity-building in trade
At Doha, donors committed to providing
increased support to help developing
countries, especially LDCs, build the capacity
to trade and to integrate into world markets.
WTO and OECD have compiled the Doha
Development Agenda Trade Capacity Building
Database (TCBDB) that lists and quantifies
such activities by bilateral and multilateral
donors from 2001 onwards.
In 2001, $466 million was pledged for trade policy, while just over $1 billion was pledged for
trade development, such as investments in trade promotion, trade finance, integrating trade
issues into countries’ poverty strategies and supporting trade institutions (see table 29).
Indications are that the rate and volume of commitments increased in 2002.
Figure 14. Trade-related Technical Assistance/Capacity-Building by main category of expenditure and by
region
Africa
2001 -Trade policy and regulations
(US$ 466 million)
16%
America
Asia
Europe
2001 -Trade development
(US$ 1 016 million)
25%
26%
0%
33%
12%
5%
Oceania
0%
10%
Global
programmes
42%
23%
8%
Source: OECD/World Trade Organization, Doha Development Agenda Trade Capacity-Building Database, available from http://tcbdb.wto.org
7
Table 29. ODA commitments to trade-related technical assistance/capacity-building, 2001
Regions
World
Africa
America
Asia
Europe
Oceania
Global programmes
1
Total ODA
(US$ ml)
62,555
16,749
5,193
21,158
9,523
1,401
8,531
2
Trade policy and
regulations
(US$ ml)
466
116
24
194
58
1
73
3
Trade
development
(US$ ml)
1,016
340
78
229
103
1
265
4
Total as a
percentage of total
ODA =(2+3)/1
2.4
2.7
2.0
2.0
1.7
0.2
4.0
Source: OECD/ World Trade Organization, Doha Development Agenda Trade Capacity-Building Database, available from
http://tcbdb.wto.org/
Note: Columns 2 and 3 are not fully comparable. They are summed only notionally in order to calculate the MDG indicator, which
is expressed as a percentage of total ODA (column 4).
Debt sustainability
A global partnership for development will also require increased debt reduction. The major
current international effort targeted specifically at improving developing countries’ debt
sustainability is the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Some $51 billion of
nominal debt relief had been committed under this Initiative as of September 2003 (excluding
$800 million committed to Côte d’Ivoire but stalled due to hostilities in the country), but more
needs to be done. For some, the HIPC process is proceeding too slowly. For others, even
after benefiting from the HIPC process, the debt relief provided is proving insufficient to
achieve a “sustainable” debt level.
There are 38 countries considered likely to be eligible for assistance under the enhanced
HIPC Initiative. Almost all are in sub-Saharan Africa. By September 2003, 27 countries had
reached their decision points and were benefiting from HIPC debt relief and 8 of the 27
countries had also reached their completion points (see table 30). The debt stocks for these
countries taken as a group will fall by nearly two thirds (on a present value basis) after the full
application of this and other debt relief mechanisms and bilateral debt forgiveness over and
beyond the enhanced HIPC Initiative.
Table 30. Enhanced HIPC Initiative: status as of September 2003
Countries that have
Countries between Decision and Completion Points (19)
reached Decision and
Completion Points (8)
Benin
Cameroon
Madagascar
Bolivia
Chad
Malawi
Burkina Faso
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Nicaragua
Mali
Ethiopia
Niger
Mauritania
Gambia
Rwanda
Mozambique
Ghana
Sao Tome and Principe
Tanzania
Guinea
Senegal
Uganda
Guinea-Bissau
Sierra Leone
Guyana
Zambia
Honduras
Countries still to be
considered for Decision
Points (11)
Burundi
Central African Rep.
Comoros
Congo, Rep. of
Côte d’Ivoire*
Lao PDR
Liberia
Myanmar
Somalia
Sudan
Togo
* Côte d’Ivoire reached the decision point under the original HIPC Initiative, but has not yet reached the decision point under the
enhanced HIPC Initiative.
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org
(accessed December 2003); based on data provided by IMF and World Bank.
8
The Initiative is intended to leave the beneficiary countries with external debt that is
“sustainable” in terms of the relationship between export receipts (as well as any worker
remittances received from abroad) and external debt service obligations. The ratio of debt
service to exports averaged about 18 per cent in all low- and middle-income economies over
the period 1990 to 2000. The average for low-income economies alone declined sharply in
the past few years and should decline further as countries participating in the HIPC Initiative
gain further debt relief. For the 27 countries that reached decision points under the enhanced
HIPC Initiative, the ratio of debt service to exports is expected to fall from an average of 16
per cent in 1998-1999 to 10 per cent in 2001-2005—less than half the average for all
developing countries.
Small, open economies may have relatively high levels of exports (and imports) and yet may
face problems in meeting debt service obligations, particularly when debt service payments
due on public debt are high relative to government revenue. A large economy may have
proportionately smaller exports and still find its debt payments sustainable. In addition,
countries that depend on one or two commodities for the bulk of their export revenues may
be particularly vulnerable when prices for commodities fall.
For this reason, it is for in-depth analysis to look at other indicators, such as the ratio of total
debt to gross national income, the size of international reserves relative to total debt, and
debt maturing within a year’s time, in forming a picture of debt sustainability.
Target 16 - In cooperation with developing countries, develop and
implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth
Employment for youth is a critical component
Indicators on youth unemployment
to achieving sustainable and equitable
Efforts to provide decent and productive work for
development in the developing regions, where
youth are monitored on the basis of the youth
18.5 per cent of the population is 15-24 years
unemployment rate, defined as the percentage of
old (20 per cent in the least developed
unemployed people ages 15–24 in the labour force
countries), compared to 13.7 in the developed
of the same age group.
regions. The International Labour Organization
(ILO) estimates that the youth unemployment rate rose from 12.1 to 15.2 per cent in Latin
America and the Caribbean, and from 7.6 to 11.9 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa between
1995 and 1999 (see table 31). Youth unemployment also increased –although to a lesser
extent–in the transition economies, Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East and North
Africa. Only in the developed regions did youth unemployment decrease, from 14.6 per cent
in 1995 to 10.4 in 2000.
Table 31. Youth unemployment rate (millions and percentage), 1995-2000
World unemployed youth (millions)
Regiona b
Developed economies
Transition economies
Asia and the Pacific
Latin America and the Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africac
Middle East and North Africac
1995
58
14.6
17.0
9.9
12.1
(7.6)
(25.7)
1996
61
1997
61
1998
65
1999
66
2000
…
Youth unemployment rate (percentage)
14.6
14.2
13.4
12.8
16.7
17.0
18.3
18.1
11.0
9.9
10.3
10.4
12.5
12.0
13.0
15.2
(11.0)
(11.8)
(13.1)
(11.9)
(21.7)
(23.0)
(15.7)
(26.2)
10.4
…
…
…
…
…
Regions are based on ILO classification.
World and region figures were calculated using different methodologies; weaknesses in available data stemmed from reliability of data
from sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Therefore the world values do not correspond to the weighted estimate
values.
c Figures are estimated indirectly using the relationship between youth unemployment rate and total unemployment rate. Their degree of
accuracy therefore depends on their validity and underlying relationship.
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org
(accessed December 2003); based on data provided by ILO.
a
b
9
Unemployment among young people in developing regions leads to the marginalization and
frustration of a potentially productive workforce and an important asset to society, and may
lead to long-term unemployability. In 2002, young people accounted for about 40 per cent of
the 180 million persons classified as unemployed in the world, or around 74 million. 10 Eightyfive per cent of all young people live and work in developing regions where, unlike in
developed regions, only very few have the option of further education and training to add to
their skills.
To tackle the problem of youth unemployment in poor countries, the United Nations has
established the Youth Employment Network. The network states the issue as follows: “In the
next 10 years, 1.2 billion young women and men will enter into the working age population,
the best educated and trained generation of young people ever, a great potential for
economic and social development. The expected inflow of young people into the labour
market, rather than being viewed as a problem, should be recognized as presenting an
enormous opportunity and potential for economic and social development.” 11
The Youth Employment Network has identified four global priorities for a decent work strategy
for young people, namely:




Employability: invest in education and vocational training for young people, and
improve the impact of those investments.
Equal opportunities: give young women the same opportunities as young men.
Entrepreneurship: make it easier to start and run enterprises to provide more and
better jobs for young women and men.
Employment creation: place employment creation at the centre of macroeconomic
policy.
The Network has urged governments to translate these four global priorities into national
reviews and action plans with targets for the creation of jobs and for the reduction of
unemployment.
ILO estimates that the number of young unemployed has risen rapidly over the most recent
years. Globally, it estimates that youth unemployment rose by 16 million between 1995 and
2002, with more than half of this increase taking place in the last three years.
Overall young people continue to suffer from marked disadvantages in the labour market
when compared with older adults. Youth unemployment rates are high or very high in many
countries. Of the 88 countries for which recent information is available (1995 or later), 49
have youth unemployment rates of over 15 per cent and 35 over 20 per cent. Looking at the
latest year available for each country with unemployment information, the youth
unemployment rate of females exceeds that of males in 49 out of 81 countries.
Youth unemployment rates almost always exceed adult unemployment rates (see table 32).
The ratio shows that in most countries, youth unemployment rates are two to four times the
older adult unemployment rates, and show a significant deterioration over the past three
years in Latin America and the Caribbean, with the ratio between youth and adult
unemployment almost doubling from 2.1 to 3.9 between 1995 and 1999.
10
Table 32. Ratio of youth unemployment rate to adult unemployment rate, 1995-2000
Regiona
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Developed economies
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4
Transition economies
2.6
2.2
2.0
2.1
1.9
Asia and the Pacific
3.9
5.1
3.9
3.6
3.6
Latin America and the Caribbean
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
3.9
2000
2.0
…
…
…
Regions are based on ILO classification.
Insufficient data are available to estimate regional figures for sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa.
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database,
http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); (http://millenniumindicators.un.org, accessed December 2003),
based on data provided by ILO.
a
Target 17 - In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide
access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries
An issue that has polarized the international trade negotiations and highlighted the growing
rift between poor and rich countries is access to medicines. In goal 8 on global partnership,
target 17 stresses the need to make essential drugs available and affordable to all those who
need them.
The World Health Organization regularly monitors access to a minimum of 20 most essential
drugs in countries on the basis of their being continuously available and affordable. In 1999,
some 90 per cent of the population in developed regions had regular access to essential
drugs, but only 65 per cent in developing regions. There was some improvement from 1987,
when estimates indicate that 55 per cent of the population in developing countries had
access to treatment using essential drugs. In spite of some progress, however, still about one
person in three in developing countries continues to lack such access. There is also a gap in
the geographical distribution of essential drugs. In sub-Saharan Africa and south-central Asia,
over 50 per cent of the population lack access to even the most basic essential drugs. It is
estimated that 80 per cent of individuals without access live in low-income countries against
only 0.3 per cent in high-income countries.
Table 33. Population with regular access to essential drugs, late 1990s
Region
Developed regions
Developing regions
Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America/Caribbean
Eastern Asia
South-central Asia
South-eastern Asia
Western Asia
Oceania
Percentage
91
65
83
47
64
84
44
77
86
77
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database,
http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on World Health Organization, “Progress of WHO member
States in developing national drug policies and in revising essential drugs lists”, WHO/DAP/98.7. (Geneva, 1998), p. 12.
The number of countries with low level of access decreased from 1987 to 1999. All countries
reporting low access are from developing regions and over half the countries with low level of
access are in sub-Saharan Africa.
In Europe, the number of countries with very high access has decreased following the
collapse of the Soviet Union. Countries with very high level of access are mostly the countries
11
of Western Europe, northern America and Asia. As of 1999, there are 25 countries in Europe
with very high level of access compared to only two in sub-Saharan Africa.
Access to HIV drugs
It is estimated that some 40 million adults and children were living with HIV/AIDS at the end
of 2002 and in need of care, including medicines such as anti-retrovirals (ARV). Access to
ARV is still very limited in developing countries. Various initiatives to improve access are now
being undertaken by international agencies, governments, non-government organizations
and private entities.
As a result of public-private sector collaboration, prices of ARV have been reduced by 95 per
cent in the last few years. Some countries are now providing free anti-retrovirals to HIV
patients and others are working on patent restrictions to make ARV drugs more available.
Table 34. Number of countries by level of access to essential drugs, 1987 and 1999
Low
Middle
High
Region
1987
1999
1987
1999
1987
1999
Developed regions
7
3
7
Developing regions
41
28
36
59
14
25
Northern Africa
2
2
2
1
Sub-Saharan Africa
29
15
9
23
1
5
Latin America/Caribbean
4
7
14
14
5
7
4
7
14
14
5
72
Eastern Asia
1
1
1
South-central Asia
4
3
5
8
2
2
South-eastern Asia
3
1
3
5
2
Western Asia
1
1
1
3
4
3
Oceania
1
3
3
Very high
1987
1999
39
30
16
25
1
2
2
3
5
31
5
1
2
2
9
9
4
Source: World Health Organization, estimates based on World Health Organization, “Progress of WHO member States in developing national
drug policies and in revising essential drugs lists”, WHO/DAP/98.7. (Geneva, 1998), p. 12. There were 149 countries reporting in 1987 and 181
countries reporting in the late 1990s.
The use of generic drugs, in particular, and the importing of such drugs for countries lacking
their own pharmaceutical industry, has been the focus of much of the recent multilateral trade
negotiations at World Trade Organization. See chapter 6 for a fuller discussion of WTO’s
agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS).
In 2002, ten anti-retroviral compounds recommended for the combination treatment of HIV
infection in adults and children were included in the WHO model list of essential drugs.
Target 18 - In cooperation with the private sector, make available the
benefits of new technologies, especially information and
communications
Technology enhances people’s lives and can
spur the economic growth of countries. Yet,
access to such technology is very unevenly
distributed. Only ten per cent of the world’s
population had access to the Internet in 2002
and over 70 per cent of these lived in
developed countries.12
Indicators on access to new technologies
The indicators used to track progress on making
available the benefits of new technology concern
the availability to the population of telephone and
cellular phone lines, the number of personal
computers and the number of Internet users.
The use of Information of communications technologies (ICT) can make governments more
transparent and therefore reduce corruption and lead to better governance. It can help people
in rural areas find out about market prices and sell their products at a better value. It can also
overcome traditional barriers to better education by making books available online and
opening the door to e-learning.
12
Although access to mobile phone and Internet
services has grown tremendously over the
past decade, the gap between poor people
and rich people’s access to communication
services has to be reduced in order for all
nations to effectively participate in and benefit
from the global information society. Bridging
this “digital divide” has risen to the top of the
development community agenda. Recent data
are encouraging: usage of the Internet in
developing countries has soared.
Telephone subscribers
Table 35. Telephone lines and cellular phones
per 100 population, 1990 and 2002
Region
Developed regions
Developing regions
Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America/Caribbean
Eastern Asia
South-central Asia
South-eastern Asia
Western Asia
Oceania
1990
38.1
2.4
2.9
1.1
6.4
2.4
1.0
1.4
10.0
3.4
2002
103.4
20.8
17.9
5.5
36.4
37.8
5.8
16.3
41.5
9.7
The total number of telephone subscribers
(fixed and mobile) rose from 530 million in
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional
1990 to 2,284 million in 2002, a growth of 331
trends”, Millennium Indicators Database,
per cent. Access to telephone networks more
http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003);
based on data provided by ITU.
than tripled from 10.1 subscribers per 100
inhabitants in 1990 to 36.8 in 2002. (See table 35) The most rapid growth occurred in use of
mobile phones. From just 11 million subscribers in 1990, the number of mobile cellular
subscribers exceeded one billion by the end of 2002, an annual average growth rate of 47
per cent compared to just 7 per cent for fixed telephone line subscribers.
Mobile is often the first area where competition has been introduced and private investment
allowed. Competition has led to a drop in prices and market innovation. The introduction of
prepaid cards for mobile networks has also driven growth, particularly in developing nations
where many citizens would not qualify for conventional subscriptions. One in five people
around the world now has a mobile phone, up from one in 339 in 1991. In 2002, the number
of mobile telephone subscribers surpassed fixed ones, and there was strong growth in
developing regions in particular. China, for instance, surpassed the United States to emerge
as the largest mobile phone market in the world. Growth has also been robust in Africa where
more than half the countries now have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers.
As a whole, developing countries now account for 45 per cent of all telephone subscribers in
the world, up from just 19 per cent in 1990.
Personal computers and access to Internet
The number of personal computers (PCs) rose from some 120 million in 1990 to 615 million
in 2002. Worldwide, PCs per 100 people stood at 10 per cent at the end of 2002 (See table
36). Between 1990 and 2000, developing countries increased their share of PCs by about 10
percentage points. While they had some 20 per cent of the total PC stock in the early 1990s,
they now own about 30 per cent of all PCs.
Growing investment in information technology, falling prices through technological
improvement and reductions in trade barriers, domestic production, and greater functionality
have driven PC sales.
Another major factor in the rise of PC penetration has been the use of the PC as the leading
access device to the Internet. Internet usage has grown at an astounding pace. Just
27countries had a direct connection to the global network in 1990. Today, practically every
country in the world is online and by the end of 2002, there were almost 600 million users
around the world. It is estimated that some 10 per cent of the world’s population was online at
the end of 2002. Over half the adult population is online in most developed countries. Internet
usage has grown fastest in developing countries. These now account for 34 per cent of all
Internet users in 2002: a dramatic increase from the 2 per cent share in 1991.
A key development is the growing use of wireless technologies to access the Internet. In
some countries, third generation mobile services have been launched that provide Internet
13
access via mobile networks at speeds higher than a dial-up telephone line. At the same time,
there are a growing number of locations around the world providing high-speed wireless
Internet access for suitably equipped laptop PCs at special locations (so-called “hotspots”).
Table 36. Personal computers and internet users per 100 population,
1990 and 2002
Region
Developed regions
Developing regions
Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America/Caribbean
Eastern Asia
South-central Asia
South-eastern Asia
Western Asia
Oceania
Personal
computers per 100
population
1990
2002
8.9
36.4
0.3
3.2
0.1
1.7
0.3
1.2
0.6
6.9
0.3
5.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
2.6
1.2
5.1
0.0
5.8
Internet
users per
100 population
1990
2002
0.3
33.4
0.0
4.1
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.1
0.0
7.6
0.0
6.9
0.0
0.8
0.0
5.6
0.0
6.3
0.0
3.2
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators
Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data
provided by ITU.
The availability of gender-disaggregated statistics for target 18 indicators is limited. Data for
the number of telephone subscribers and PCs come from administrative and operational
records, which do not disaggregate the data by sex. In the case of Internet users, surveys
have been conducted in some 39 countries providing a breakdown between women and
men.
A simple average of these countries indicates that 43 per cent of Internet users are women,
although the average masks large differences across countries. In a couple of countries,
there are more women online than men. In those countries where a time series is available,
the trend is towards an increasing proportion of female users over time.
Outlook for the future
The telecommunication industry has undergone a major transformation over the last two
decades. For most of the period since the Second World War, the industry has moved along
gradually with network growth rates of between 5 and 7 per cent per year. This changed
around the mid-1990s when growth rates started to go up and up, peaking at a heady 28 per
cent in 2000. Underlying these statistics is a period of high and sustained investment.
What happened in the late 1990s was the sort of radical shift that usually only happens every
fifty years or so and is generally caused by the confluence of rapid technological change with
a shift in market expectations, in this particular case associated with mobile networks
overtaking fixed-line networks, and with data overtaking voice.
Global spending on information technology products averaged around 9 per cent growth a
year between 1997 and 2001 in an effort to boost productivity. Today’s entry level PC costs
roughly the same as one 10 years ago even though it is some 40 times more powerful. The
World Trade Organization’s Ministerial Declaration on Trade in Information Technology
Products (ITA), concluded in December 1996, provides for participants to completely
eliminate duties on IT products covered by the Agreement by 1 January 2000. Signatories
cover 90 per cent of the market in IT products.
14
As the ICT industry enters the 21st century, the equation has changed for many developing
nations. Since computers are now readily available all over the world, the concern has shifted
from scarce supply of hardware to affordability and skills to use computer technology
effectively.
Notes
The total figure of $51 billion excludes $800 million committed to Côte d’Ivoire but stalled due to hostilities in the
country.
1
United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2626 (XXV) of 24 October 1970. Switzerland and the United
States have not committed to the 0.7 per cent target.
3 These figures for aid to basic social services may be underestimated, as some assistance within wider sector
programmes and multi-sector programmes is not captured by the reporting system.
4 Data exclude technical co-operation and administrative costs and ODA from Austria, Luxembourg, New Zealand
and the United States that do not report the tying status of their ODA.
5 OECD, DAC recommendation on untying official development assistance to the least developed countries
(2001), available from http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/14/56/1885476.pdf
2
United Nations, National Accounts Statistics: Analysis of Main Aggregates 2001 (United Nations publication,
Sales No. ).
7 For agricultural products, the total support estimate (TSE) represents the overall taxpayer and consumer costs of
agricultural policies. It includes support to individual farmers from trade barriers that keep domestic farm prices
above those on world markets, budgetary-financed payments, and input subsidies, as well as support to general
services provided to the agricultural sector as a whole and consumer food subsidies. When expressed as a
percentage of GDP, TSE is an indicator of the cost to the economy as a whole. Differences across countries of
TSE as a percentage of GDP reflect the level of support and the share of agricultural output in the economy in
countries. Changes over time reflect changes in the level of support and in the share of agriculture in GDP, as well
as the growth of the economy.
8 “Your Farm Subsidies are Strangling Us”, New York Times, 11 July 2003 (article by the presidents of Mali,
Amadou Toumani, and Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaore); and United Nations, International Trade Statistics
Yearbook 2002 (United Nations publication, Sales No. ).
9 Ibid.
10 W. Schaible and R. Mahadevan-Vijaya “World and regional estimates for selected key indicators of the labour
market”, Employment Paper 2002/36, ILO, p.20 (Geneva, 2002), available from
http://mirror/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/workpap.htm; the estimate of 180 million unemployed is from
ILO, “Global Employment Trends”, p.1 (Geneva, 2003), and the 74 million unemployed estimate was extrapolated
by the Youth Employment Sector, ILO.
6
See the policy recommendations of the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Youth Employment, in United
Nations document A/56/422.
11
ITU, Telecom World 2003, “Reaching the Unreached”, available from
http://www.itu.int/WORLD2003/media/features/devbackgrounder.html
12
How the indicators are calculated
Youth unemployment
The youth unemployment rate (youth unemployment as a percentage of the youth labour
force) is a general measure of utilization of the labour force of young persons, defined as
persons aged 15 to 24 years old. Unemployment, however, is but one dimension of the
employment problem faced by young people: a disproportionately large number of young
persons are underemployed in many countries. Some are working fewer hours than they
would like to and others are working long hours with little economic gain. Stagnation and
15
decline of employment opportunities in the formal sectors of most developing countries has
intensified the problem in recent years, with young women bearing a disproportionate burden.
Supplementary indicators to understand the employment problem should include measures
of underemployment, the informal sector, educational access and labour force participation,
amongst others.
Access to essential drugs
The World Health Organization regularly monitors access to a minimum of 20 most essential
drugs in countries on the basis of their being continuously available and affordable at public
or private health facilities or drug outlets that are within one hour’s walk. Essential medicines
fall into a number of categories, for instance, well-known anesthetics, analgesics,
antibacterials and antimalarials among others. The information is generated through
interviews with relevant experts on the pharmaceutical situation in each country. Countries
are categorized as having low, middle, high, very high coverage where:




Low means that less than 50 per cent of the population has regular access.
Middle means that 50-80 per cent of the population has regular access.
High means that 81-95 per cent of the population has regular access.
Very high means that more than 95 per cent of the population has regular access.
The access framework covers a number of criteria, including: (a) the rational selection of
drugs appropriate for the population and the setting, (b) sustainable financing and
procurement, (c) affordability, and (d) reliable supply system. It is therefore complex to
measure accurately.
* World Health Organization, Model List April 2003, available from
http://www.who.int/medicines/organization/par/edl/expertcomm13.shtml
Telephone lines, PCs and Internet users
Data on telephone subscribers come from administrative records compiled by national
regulatory authorities or telecommunication operators and tend to be timely and complete.
However there are issues related to the practice of some countries including a “virtual”
number of telephone lines for high-speed data services. There are also comparability issues
for mobile subscribers due to the prevalence of pre-paid subscriptions. This arises from
differences in the time period chosen for considering when to consider a pre-paid
subscription no longer active.
The precise number of PCs is available only in few countries. The ITU uses industry sales
data to derive the stock of PCs for most developed and major developing nations. In cases
where these data are not available, the ITU also uses PC import data to make estimates.
Neither sales nor import data is available for many, mainly smaller developing nations.
Another limitation of the PC data is that it is quite recent so longitudinal time series only exist
for developed nations and major developing ones.
Finally, there are growing methodological issues in measuring the number of Internet users.
These include wide variations in the definition of an Internet user in terms of the user’s age
and frequency of use and age. Another emerging issue is how to treat Internet access from
mobile phones. While many developed nations now carry out Internet use surveys conducted
by national statistical offices or industry associations, hardly any developing countries do so.
In the case of most developing nations, Internet users are calculated based on a multiplier
factor of the number of subscribers. This could be misleading since many users in developing
countries are not subscribers and obtain access through public facilities such as libraries,
Internet cafés and schools.
16
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18