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The Eurasia Center 4927 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20016 www.eurasiacenter.org [email protected] Uzbekistan: Country Report In September 2015, Uzbekistan celebrated 24 years of independence. Ever since gaining status of an independent nation, Uzbek government has continually and cautiously stated its commitment to a gradual transition to a free market economy. The government has had success in narrowing the gap between the black market and the official exchange rate, but its restrictive trade regime has hindered progress. Within the past several years, Uzbekistan has set a course for towards opening its economy to the West and doing business with the international community. Currently, some of the most pressing concerns for the country include abuses of human rights and democratization, and terrorism by Islamic militants. Uzbekistan had been ruled by strongman Islam Karimov until his death in September of 2016. He was replaced by long term Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Fig.1 – Map of Uzbekistan Fig.2 – The national flag of Uzbekistan Economic Indicators: In 2015, Uzbekistan’s estimated GDP per capita (PPP) is $6100.1 The same 1 2 3 4 5 6 year, the Uzbek government reported 6.8% of annual growth, attributed primarily to favorable export environment and state-led investment.2 In 2015, the official unemployment rate was 4.8%, which ranks the country as 47th in the world.3 Of the whole Central Asian region, Uzbekistan possesses 74% of all condensed gas, 31% of oil, 40% of natural gas and 55% of coal deposits. Globally, the country is among the top ten natural gas producers. Uzbekistan is also a major producer of gold, boasting the world’s largest open-pit gold mine.4 Growing natural gas and oil industries are among the most prominent sectors in Uzbekistan. Approximately 40% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings are generated from exports of hydrocarbons, including natural gas and petroleum.5 Uzbekistan is also a major agricultural exporter, and is currently the world’s fifth largest cotton exporter and sixth largest producer.6 In recent years, rapid increase in cotton price greatly benefited the industry. Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF.( http://www.imf.org/external/country/UZB/index.htm) CIA World Factbook. Economy. (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uz.html) Ibid. Wikipedia: “Economy of Uzbekistan” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Uzbekistan) CIA World Factbook, Economy <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uz.html> Ibid. Economic Structure: Uzbekistan’s economy is centered on commodity production (natural resources) such as cotton, gold, natural gas, and petroleum. In 2015, 18.8% of the country’s GDP was composed of agriculture, 33.7% of industry and 47.5% of services.7 Import substitution is the officially embraced policy of Uzbek government. Despite economic liberalization, after independence, certain elements of a planned economic system still remain in place. Uzbekistan has a centrally planned economic structure since most of its production and employment are controlled by the state sector. Furthermore, all health, education, and social welfare services are provided by the government. Cotton is Uzbekistan's dominant crop. In 2012, cotton production accounted for roughly 16% of the country's GDP. Uzbekistan is the world’s ninth-largest producer of gold; it also produces significant amounts of silk, fruit, and vegetables. Despite the importance of the agricultural sector, natural resources, especially natural gas, are becoming most prominent foreign exchange earner (approx 24% in 2010).8 Uzbekistan has traditional economic ties with Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. However, importance of non-CIS partnerships has been on the rise. South Korea, European Union, China, Germany, Japan and Turkey are becoming more active in the country.9 Political Considerations: Uzbekistan is divided into 12 provinces, 1 autonomous republic (Karakalpakstan), and 1 independent city of Tashkent - the capital. Additionally, there are four Uzbek exclaves surrounded by Kyrgyz territory in the Fergana valley region. The governmental structure of Uzbekistanis is comprised of executive, legislative and judicial branches, with the most power concentrated in the executive branch. Uzbekistan’s president is elected by a popular vote every five years. Islom Karimov served as the country’s president ever since independence. Current governmental type of Uzbekistan is classified as authoritarian presidential rule. The United States and Uzbekistan have begun rebuilding mutual trust since mid-2007 while focusing on issues relating to security, economy, as well as political and civil society.10 Ibid. Department of State, <http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2924.htm#econ> 9 CIA World Factbook, Economy <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uz.html> 10 Ibid 7 8 Environmental Concerns: Unsustainable development practices, utilized during the years of the Soviet Union, resulted in heavy environmental degradation. Some of the unsustainable practices, which continue to cause serious health and environmental problems, include heavy use of agrochemicals, unbalanced diversion of irrigation water and the chronic lack of water treatment plants. Desiccation and salinization of the Aral Sea, which produced loss of plant and animal life, is the most prominent example of environmental degradation caused by Soviet practices. Demographics and Education: Uzbekistan’s population is approximately 29,199,942 as of 2015. It is the most populous country in Central Asia. Population still remains heavily rural and relies on farming as the primary source of livelihood. Uzbekistan has a comparatively low percentage of urban population, only 36.4%. The estimated annual rate of urbanization is 1.45% (2010-2015). Contrary to current global trends, Uzbekistan is experiencing a trend of the urban population moving back into rural areas. Approximately 80% Uzbekistan’s population is ethnically Uzbek. Prominent ethnic minority groups include Russians (who continue to emigrate), Tajiks, Kazakhs, Karakalpaks, and Tatars.11 The average life expectancy at birth is 73.55 years. In 2015, the population growth rate was 0.93%.12 Education: In 2015, Uzbekistan’s adult literacy rate was 99.6%.13 Education through secondary school is mandatory and free. All citizens enjoy the right to compete for free educational opportunities in the country’s higher education institutions. On average, all children are expected to be in school for approximately 11.5 years.14 Acknowledgements: Research and Data Development Provided by: Meagan Pace and Kateryna Botsu, Research Assistants, under the supervision and coordination of: Dr. Gerard J. Janco, President, Eurasia Center/EBC. Updated by research assistant Jared Martin. Ibid. Ibid. 13 UNDP. Uzbekistan – Country Profile of human development indicators. <http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/UZB.html> 14 Ibid. 11 12