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C h a p t e r 11 FISCAL POLICY O u t l i n e Balancing Acts on Capitol Hill A. In 2003, the federal government planned to spend 18 cents out of each dollar earned in the United States, and collect nearly as much in taxes. How does that affect the economy? B. For most of the 1980s and 1990s, the government ran deficits, to the extent that the national debt is now about $12,000 per person. What are its effects, and how can deficits be avoided? I. The Federal Budget A. The federal budget is the annual statement of the federal government’s expenditures and tax revenues. Fiscal policy is the use of the federal budget to achieve macroeconomic objectives, such as full employment, sustained long-term economic growth, and price level stability. B. The Institutions and Laws 1. Fiscal policy is made by the president and Congress. Figure 26.1 (page 604/258) illustrates the timeline. 431 432 CHAPTER 11 2. Fiscal policy operates within the framework of the Employment Act of 1946, which committed the government to work toward “maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.” 3. The President’s Council of Economic Advisers monitors the economy and advises the President on economic policy. C. Highlights of the 2003 Budget 1. Table 26.1 (page 605/259) summarizes the projected fiscal 2003 Federal Budget and shows the shows tax revenues, expenditures, and a projected surplus. FISCAL POLICY 433 2. Tax revenues come from personal income taxes, social insurance taxes, corporate income taxes, and indirect taxes. Personal income taxes followed by social insurance taxes are the two largest revenue sources. 3. Expenditures are classified as transfer payments, purchases of goods and services, and debt interest. Transfer payments are by far the largest expenditure, and are sources of persistent growth in expenditures. 4. The federal government’s budget balance equals tax revenue minus expenditure. If tax revenues exceed expenditures, the government has a budget surplus. If expenditures exceed tax revenues, the government has a budget deficit. If tax revenues equal expenditures, the government has a balanced budget. D. The Budget in Historical Perspective 1. Figure 26.2 (page 606/260) shows the government’s tax revenues, expenditures, and budget surplus or deficit as a percentage of GDP for the period 1983–2003. The government had a deficit of 5.2 percent in 1983. The deficit declined and in 1998 to 2001, the government had a surplus. A deficit arose again in 2002 and 2003. 434 CHAPTER 11 2. Figure 26.3 (page 607/261) shows the evolution of the components of tax revenues and expenditures as a percentage of GDP over the period 1983–2003. Tax revenues increased and expenditures decreased. FISCAL POLICY 435 3. Government debt is the total amount that the government has borrowed—that the government owes. It is the accumulation of all past deficits. Figure 26.4 (page 608/262) shows the evolution of the debt as a percentage of GDP since 1942. 436 CHAPTER 11 4. The debt to GDP ratio reached a peak at the end of World War II in 1945. It then generally fell until 1974. From 1974 to 1992 the ratio rose; it then fell from 1992 to 2002, when it started to increase again. E. The U.S. Government Budget in Global Perspective 1. Figure 26.5 (page 263) compares government budget deficits around the world in 2001. FISCAL POLICY 437 2. The world as a whole that year had a government budget deficit of about 1.5 percent of world GDP. F. State and Local Budgets 1. In 2001, when the federal government spent $1,900 billion, state and local governments spent about $1,300 billion, mostly on education, protective services, and roads. 2. State and local budgets are not used for stabilization purposes, and occasionally are destabilizing in recessions. II. Fiscal Policy Multipliers A. Automatic fiscal policy is a change in fiscal policy triggered by the state of the economy. Discretionary fiscal policy is a policy action that is initiated by an act of Congress. 1. To enable us to focus on the principles of fiscal policy multipliers, we first study discretionary fiscal policy in a model economy that has only lumpsum taxes. 2. Lump-sum taxes are taxes that do not vary with real GDP. B. The Government Purchases Multiplier 1. The government purchases multiplier is the magnification effect of a change in government purchases of goods and services on equilibrium aggregate expenditure and real GDP. 438 CHAPTER 11 2. A multiplier exists because government purchases are a component of aggregate expenditure; an increase in government purchases increases aggregate income, which induces additional consumption expenditure. 3. Table 26.2 (page 611/265) illustrates the government purchases multiplier with a numerical example. 4. Figure 26.6 (page 612/266) illustrates the government purchases multiplier in the aggregate expenditure diagram. FISCAL POLICY 439 a) An $0.5 trillion increase in government purchases shifts the aggregate expenditure curve upward from AE0 to AE1 and equilibrium expenditure increases by $2 trillion. b) The government purchases multiplier is 1/(1 – MPC) where MPC is the marginal propensity to consume (absent induced taxes and imports). C. The Lump-Sum Tax Multiplier 1. The lump-sum tax multiplier is the magnification effect a change in lump-sum taxes on equilibrium aggregate expenditure and real GDP. 2. An increase in lump-sum taxes decreases disposable income, which decreases consumption expenditure and decreases aggregate expenditure and real GDP. 3. The amount by which a tax increase lowers consumption expenditure is determined by the MPC. A $1 tax increases lowers consumption expenditure by $1 MPC, and this amount gets multiplied by the standard autonomous expenditures multiplier. 4. The lump-sum tax multiplier is –MPC/(1 – MPC) It is negative because an increase in lump-sum taxes decreases equilibrium expenditure. 5. Figure 26.7 (page 613/267) illustrates the effect of an increase in lump-sum taxes. A tax increase shifts the AE curve downward and equilibrium expenditure and real GDP fall. 440 CHAPTER 11 6. The lump-sum transfer payments multiplier and the lump-sum tax multiplier are the same except for their signs—the transfer payments multiplier is positive. D. Induced Taxes and Entitlement Spending 1. Taxes that vary with real GDP are called induced taxes. Most transfer payments are entitlement spending, which also vary with real GDP. 2. During a spending rise and diminish lump-sum recession, induced taxes fall and entitlement rises; and during an expansion, induced taxes entitlement spending falls. Both effects the size of the government purchases and tax multipliers. 3. The extent to which induced taxes and entitlement spending decrease the multiplier depends on the marginal tax rate, which is the fraction of an additional dollar of real GDP that flows to the government in net taxes. 4. The higher the marginal tax rate, the larger is the fraction of an additional dollar of income that flows to the government and the smaller is the induced change in consumption expenditure. The smaller the induced change in consumption expenditure the smaller are the government purchases and lump-sum tax multipliers. E. International Trade and Fiscal Policy Multipliers 1. Imports decrease the fiscal policy multipliers. FISCAL POLICY 441 2. The larger the marginal propensity to import, the smaller is the magnitude of the government purchases and lump-sum tax multipliers. F. Automatic Stabilizers 1. Automatic stabilizers are mechanisms that stabilize real GDP without explicit action by the government. Income taxes and transfer payments are automatic stabilizers. 2. Because income taxes and transfer payments change with the business cycle, the government’s budget deficit also varies with this cycle. In a recession, taxes fall, transfer payments rise, and the deficit grows; in an expansion, taxes rise, transfers fall, and deficit shrinks. 3. Figure 26.8 (page 614/268) shows the budget deficit over the business cycle for 1981–2001. 442 CHAPTER 11 4. The structural surplus or deficit is the surplus or deficit that would occur if the economy were at full employment and real GDP were equal to potential GDP. The cyclical surplus or deficit is the actual surplus or deficit minus the structural surplus or deficit; that is, it is the surplus or deficit that occurs purely because real GDP does not equal potential GDP. Figure 26.9 (page 615/269) illustrates these ideas. FISCAL POLICY 443 III. Fiscal Policy Multipliers and the Price Level A. Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand 1. Figure 26.10 (page 617/271) illustrates the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand. 444 CHAPTER 11 2. An increase in government purchases shifts the AE curve upward and shifts the AD curve rightward. The magnitude of the shift in the AD curve equals the government purchases multiplier times the increase in government purchases. When lump-sum taxes decrease, FISCAL POLICY 445 the rightward shift in the AD curve equals the lumpsum tax multiplier times the reduction in taxes. a) Expansionary fiscal policy, an increase in government expenditures or a decrease in tax revenues, shifts the AD curve rightward. b) Contractionary fiscal policy, a decrease in government expenditures or an increase in tax revenues, shifts the AD curve leftward. 3. Figure 26.11a (page 618/272) illustrates the effect of an expansionary fiscal policy on real GDP and the price level when real GDP is below potential GDP. a) The rightward shift in the AD curve equals the multiplied increase in aggregate expenditure. b) The increase in GDP is less than the multiplied increase in aggregate expenditure because the price level rises. B. Fiscal Expansion at Potential GDP 1. In Figure 26.11b (page 618/272) illustrates the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy at full employment. 2. In the long run, fiscal policy multipliers are zero because real GDP equals potential GDP and a change in aggregate demand changes the money wage rate, the SAS curve, and the price level. C. Limitations of Fiscal Policy 446 CHAPTER 11 1. Because the short-run fiscal policy multipliers are not zero, fiscal policy can be used to help stabilize the economy. 2. But in practice, fiscal policy is hard to use because: a) The legislative process is too slow to permit policy actions to be implemented when they are needed. b) Potential GDP is hard to estimate, so too much fiscal stimulation might be applied too close to full employment. IV. Supply Side Effects of Fiscal Policy A. Fiscal Policy and Potential GDP 1. Potential GDP depends on the full-employment quantity of labor, which in turn is influenced by the income tax. Figure 26.12 (page 620/274) illustrates the effect of the income tax in the labor market. a) The income tax decreases the supply of labor because it decreases the after-tax wage rate. b) Because the income tax decreases the supply of labor, it raises the equilibrium wage rate, decreases employment, and decreases potential GDP. 2. This supply-side effect of the income tax means that a decrease in the income tax rate increases potential GDP and increases aggregate supply. 3. Figure 26.13 (page 620/274) illustrates two views about the effects of a tax cut on real GDP and the price level. FISCAL POLICY 447 4. Everyone agrees that a tax cut increases aggregate demand. 5. Supply-side economists think that a tax cut increases aggregate supply by a large amount so that GDP increases and the price level does not change (or might even fall). 6. Most economists believe that the increase in aggregate demand exceeds that in aggregate supply, so GDP increases and the price level rises, but by less than would be the case without the increase in aggregate supply. B. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth 1. Fiscal policy also influences economic growth by changing the incentives to save, invest, and innovate. These incentives work similarly to those in the labor market. 2. Fiscal policy can also influence growth and the wellbeing of future generations by crowding out investment and increasing foreign debt. Figure 26.14 (page 621/275) illustrates these effects.