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Forecasted and simulated effects of long term force-fields
through the example of the grain sector of Kazakhstan
Zoltán Varga (SZIU), 2013
Introduction
Status of the Kazakh wheat sector
The former Soviet Republic, Kazakhstan is the 7th largest country in the world, but one of the
very least populated. Since its independence, the Kazakh economy is being through a series of
transformational progamme from the previous centrally planned, to an open, free market
economy – like Hungary before ca. two-three decades. During the following period of
independence the economy was declining, but efforts was made to change to the free market,
and now efforts is made to integrate the country to the global economy.
Agriculture is the main sector in Kazakhstan accounting for 6% GDP, not counting the fossil
fuel industry. Due to its geographical location in the Eurasian wheat belt, Kazakhstan is the
6th largest wheat producer in the world. However, the effectivness and efficiency of the crop
production, despite of the huge areas, are under the international and regional levels. It is
caused by several factors, for example the insufficient infrastructure and easily and
significantly changing enviroment. Therefore simulation modells calculating with short and
long term influences (like market force-fields and/or climate change) should be created to
ensure methodological supports for decision making processes.
The primary wheat producer regions are located around of the northern/north-central
territories. Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Akmola, part of Pavlodar and the the north of
Karaganda, including the northern parts of West Kazakhstan and Aqtobe. Here the
topography is mainly flat and the production on rich and fertile chernozem and kashtan
(chestnut) soils account for approximetely 70% of the country’s total wheat output. It is
shown on Map Nr. 1.
1. Map Soil map of Northern Kazakhstan, source:
http://www.fao.org/ag/Agp/AGPC/doc/field/Wheat/asia/Kazakhstan/northern.htm
The wheat grown here is mainly rain-fed. Northern Kazakhstan produces hard wheat because
of the dry climate. Despite of the vast area given - 205,000 km2, greater than Germany,
Poland, Italy, France and Spain combined – for high quality and exclusively to arable
production, yield is considered low by global standards. However there are several risk
factors, we can state, that there is a great opportunity to raise the wheat production in
Kazakhstan. The following table shows the yield production of cereal sectors of Germany,
Poland, Italy, France, Spain, Hungary and Kazakhstan in kg per hectar during the last five
years.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Country name
Germany
7,119
7,199
6,718
6,461
6,900
Poland
3,217
3,478
3,389
3,391
3,585
Italy
5,353
5,087
5,441
5,682
5,328
France
7,289
7,455
6,97
6,831
7,524
Spain
3,581
2,939
3,231
3,708
2,886
Hungary
5,800
4,715
4,719
5,103
3,662
Kazakhstan
1,009
1,249
804
1,688
950
1. Table Yield of cereal sectors (kg/hectar), source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Based on the table Nr. 1. the following question is relevant to ask: which genetic potential/
can be assumed for Kazakhstan comparing to experiences of the cereal production in other
countries/regions?
General information about the target object
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Name: Republic of Kazakhstan
Currency: Tenge (₸) KZT
Capital: Astana
Largest city: Almaty
Area: Total 2,724,900 km2
Population: 16,967,000 (2013 estimated)
o Density: 5,94/km2
GDP Total: $196.419 billion
o Per capita: $11,772
Independence from the Soviet Union: December 25, 1991
Official languages
o Kazakh
o Russian
Ethnic groups (2009):
o 63.1% Kazakh
o 23.6% Russian
o 2.8% Uzbek
o 2.9% Ukrainian
o 1.5% German
o 1.4% Uyghur
o 1.3% Tatar
o 4.3% others
Government:
o presidential state
o President: Nursultan Nazarbayev
o Prime Minister: Serik Akhmetov
o Legislature
o Parliament
o Upper house (Senate)
o Lower house (Mazhilis)
o Main resources:
o Key mineral resources: uranium, copper, bauxite and oil.
o Growing of crops: cotton, wheat, grapes
o Livestock: sheep, goats, camels
o Industry: petroleum refining, non-ferrous metallurgy, textiles
o Area of agriculture: 846,000 km2
o Arable: 205,000 km2
o Pasture: 611,000 km2
Regions of Kazakhstan
Region
Capital
Akmola
Kokshetau (Көкшетау)
Aktobe
Aktobe (Ақтөбе)
Almaty
Taldykorgan (Талдықорған)
Atyrau
Atyrau (Атырау)
West Kazakhstan
Oral (Орал)
Zhambyl
Taraz (Тараз)
Karagandy
Karagandy (Kарағанды)
Kostanay
Kostanay (Қостанай)
Kyzylorda
Kyzylorda(Қызылорда)
Mangystau
Aktau (Ақтау)
South Kazakhstan
Shymkent (Шымкент)
Pavlodar
Pavlodar (Павлодар)
North Kazakhstan
Petropavl (Петропавл)
East Kazakhstan
Oskemen (Өскемен)
Climate
The climate of the Kazakh regio is typically semi-arid, with cold winters and warm summers.
Located well outside the Aral Sea Drainage Basin to the south, where pressure for irrigation
waters exists and droughts are persistent, risk to drought is frequent – two years in every five
on avarege -, particulary during the May-August growing season when poor rainfall and heat
often persist. Harsh winters are also a factor. Large scale irrigation does not exist.
Consequently, reduced harvested area and yield losses/crop failure is not uncommon, leading
to frequent, and sharp, year-to-year fluctuations, representing a considerable source of acute
regional food insecurity, and international accessibilty and market supply. The high frequency
of adverse production conditions reflect few strategies to cope with such variable growing
conditions. Where agriculture is least modernized and farmers do not have access to improved
cultivars, and eddective inputs, the consequences of inadequate moisture can be sevre with
knock on effects for the local rural economy. Irrespective of such enviromental risks,
Kazakhstan continues to comprise a significant part of the easterns reach of the Eurasian
wheat belt, and increasingly strategic component of international wheat supply, in particular
with respect to the EU. Climate change also brings uncertanities to the prospects of
sustainable and uninterrupted growth of wheat in this region, where it is considered
vulnerable. According to climate change scenarios based on global climate modelling, further
temperature increases with no significant gain on atmospheric precipation may lead to a drier
climate. In parallel, the current climate zone boundaries (Map Nr. 2.) may shift northward,
and wheat yields may be reduced more than by 25%. Such future risks should not be
underestimated. Therefore simulation modells being capable to integrate the most influence
factors to the cereal production are necessary to be able to plan long term decisions.
2. Map Average temperature in July, source: http://www.catholickazakhstan.org/Map/map_kazakhstan_temperature_july.png
3. Map Regions of Kazakhstan, source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kazakhstan_provinces_and_province_capitals.svg
The problem
Imagining the previously adumbrated scenario, it has a high probability that the main grain
producing regions of Northern Kazakhstan may loose their layer of soil with relatively high
fertility rate (chernozem and kashtan) because of the stronger wind erosions. It will make
necessary to introduce new technologies (chemicals, machines, etc) to, at least not to loose
more yield, the production. The simulation-oriented question is, if they for example increase
the effectivness of fertilizers, or improve their irrigation systems, how these factors will affect
the yield production. Is it even possible to moderate the effect of the climate change?
Methodological background
Simulation modells are derived based on similarity analyses and trend-analyses (Pitlik, 2013).
The partial model layers are hybridized and try to build the most consistent holistic datauniverse about short and long term status of the cereal production of Kazakhstan. Due to
preliminary projects of University Gödöllő, Hungary: SPEL-IDARA-CAPRI international
project-series to ensure consistence databases for agricultural sector modelling and PhDdissertation of Bunkóczi to forecast e.g. yield of cereals.
Sources:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG
http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2005/03/Kazakh_Ag/
http://www.fao.org/ag/Agp/AGPC/doc/field/Wheat/asia/Kazakhstan/northern.htm
http://www.catholic-kazakhstan.org/Map/map_kazakhstan_temperature_july.png
http://miau.gau.hu/myx-free/
http://miau.gau.hu/miau/179/phd_bl/
http://enrin.grida.no/htmls/kazahst/soe2/soee/nav/climat/3zone.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kazakhstan_provinces_and_province_capitals.svg