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Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587022/ Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Growth Set To Strengthen With greater macroeconomic stability returning to the Balkan region over the course of 2010, we see economic growth strengthening across Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo this year. Nevertheless, our core view that a return to pre-crisis rates of growth for Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo remains unchanged, with the countries facing a prolonged adjustment towards export-oriented growth. Signs of this adjustment have already started to be seen, with exports leading the way while import growth remains subdued. Going forward, we expect domestic demand to begin to play a greater role for economic growth but a return to consumption growth like that seen in the pre-crisis boom years remains firmly off the table. The stability of Serbia’s economy improved materially over the course of 2010 as its IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) allowed the country to stem the rapid depreciation in the national currency and shore up foreign exchange reserves. Exports have been the major driver of the economic recovery seen thus far and we expect them to continue to play a large role in Serbia’s economic growth profile in the years ahead. This year we expect the Serbian consumer to return to strength as the economic recovery becomes more firmly established, boosting household confidence. Serbia still faces difficult challenges, with rising inflation and further painful fiscal austerity measures mandated under its IMF SBA coming to the fore. Montenegro’s economy is set to accelerate to post growth of 3.3% in 2011 and, like its Balkan peers, domestic demand buttressing an export-led recovery will be the main story. We expect returning foreign investor interest to also play a role in this small Balkan state, as its attainment of EU candidate country status in December 2010 provides a firm anchor for both reform momentum and investor confidence. A smooth power transition from retiring Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic to his chosen successor Igor Luksic in late December bodes well for broad policy continuity in a government that has gradually implemented a business environment that compares very favourably to its Balkan peers, which will give Montenegro a key advantage in attracting investment from abroad in the years ahead. Kosovo’s political outlook remains challenging, in our view. An increasingly fractious domestic political scene and still-unresolved internal ethnic divides weigh heavily on our short-term political risk ratings for Kosovo, which sit at the lowest in Europe at 33.3 (out of 100). Moreover, while its former ruler Serbia has agreed to enter into EU -backed talks with Pristina, the issue regarding Kosovo’s international status and recognition is unlikely to reach a resolution over the medium term, leaving a large risk to regional stability unresolved and deterring much needed foreign investment in the Balkan country. Contents: Executive Summary Growth Set To Strengthen Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Serbia SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics l Table: Political Ov erview Domestic Politics lI Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Serbia SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Table: GDP BY EXPENDITURE Balance Of Payments Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT Fiscal Policy TABLE: FISCAL POLICY Monetary Policy Table: MONETARY POLICY Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Serbia The Serbian Economy To 2020 Table: SERBIA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 1.4: Business Environment - Serbia SWOT Analysis Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Institutions Infrastructure Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Market Orientation Table: Labour Force Quality Table: Em erging Europe – Annual FDI Infl ows Table: Trade And Investment Ratings Operational Risk TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS Chapter 1.5: Key Sectors - Serbia Consumer Electronics Table: Consumer El ectronics Ov erview Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Montenegro SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Table: Political Ov erview Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Montenegro SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Table: montenegro – GDP BY EXPEN DITURE Balance Of Payments Table: MONTENE GRO – CURRENT ACCOUNT Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Montenegro The Montenegrin Economy To 2020 Table: MONTENE GRO Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 2.4: Business Environment - Montenegro SWOT Analysis Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Kosovo SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Kosovo SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Table: GDP BY EXPEN DITURE Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat Table: Global Assumptions TABLE: GLOBAL & RE GIONA L REA L GDP GRO WTH % CHG Y-O-Y TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS Chapter 5: Sector Forecast Appendix Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators Table; Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators Table: Ph armaceuticals Sector Key Indicators Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators Table: Freigh t Key Indicators Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587022/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. 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