Download Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Brochure

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Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Business Forecast Report Q2 2011
Description:
Growth Set To Strengthen
With greater macroeconomic stability returning to the Balkan region over the course of 2010, we see
economic growth strengthening across Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo this year. Nevertheless, our core
view that a return to pre-crisis rates of growth for Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo remains unchanged, with
the countries facing a prolonged adjustment towards export-oriented growth.
Signs of this adjustment have already started to be seen, with exports leading the way while import growth
remains subdued. Going forward, we expect domestic demand to begin to play a greater role for economic
growth but a return to consumption growth like that seen in the pre-crisis boom years remains firmly off the
table.
The stability of Serbia’s economy improved materially over the course of 2010 as its IMF Stand-By
Arrangement (SBA) allowed the country to stem the rapid depreciation in the national currency and shore up
foreign exchange reserves. Exports have been the major driver of the economic recovery seen thus far and
we expect them to continue to play a large role in Serbia’s economic growth profile in the years ahead. This
year we expect the Serbian consumer to return to strength as the economic recovery becomes more firmly
established, boosting household confidence. Serbia still faces difficult challenges, with rising inflation and
further painful fiscal austerity measures mandated under its IMF SBA coming to the fore.
Montenegro’s economy is set to accelerate to post growth of 3.3% in 2011 and, like its Balkan peers,
domestic demand buttressing an export-led recovery will be the main story. We expect returning foreign
investor interest to also play a role in this small Balkan state, as its attainment of EU candidate country
status in December 2010 provides a firm anchor for both reform momentum and investor confidence. A
smooth power transition from retiring Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic to his chosen successor Igor Luksic in
late December bodes well for broad policy continuity in a government that has gradually implemented a
business environment that compares very favourably to its Balkan peers, which will give Montenegro a key
advantage in attracting investment from abroad in the years ahead.
Kosovo’s political outlook remains challenging, in our view. An increasingly fractious domestic political scene
and still-unresolved internal ethnic divides weigh heavily on our short-term political risk ratings for Kosovo,
which sit at the lowest in Europe at 33.3 (out of 100). Moreover, while its former ruler Serbia has agreed to
enter into EU -backed talks with Pristina, the issue regarding Kosovo’s international status and recognition is
unlikely to reach a resolution over the medium term, leaving a large risk to regional stability unresolved and
deterring much needed foreign investment in the Balkan country.
Contents:
Executive Summary
Growth Set To Strengthen
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Serbia
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics l
Table: Political Ov erview
Domestic Politics lI
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Serbia
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Table: GDP BY EXPENDITURE
Balance Of Payments
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
Fiscal Policy
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Monetary Policy
Table: MONETARY POLICY
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Serbia
The Serbian Economy To 2020
Table: SERBIA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 1.4: Business Environment - Serbia
SWOT Analysis
Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
Infrastructure
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Market Orientation
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Em erging Europe – Annual FDI Infl ows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Operational Risk
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Chapter 1.5: Key Sectors - Serbia
Consumer Electronics
Table: Consumer El ectronics Ov erview
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Montenegro
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Table: Political Ov erview
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Montenegro
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Table: montenegro – GDP BY EXPEN DITURE
Balance Of Payments
Table: MONTENE GRO – CURRENT ACCOUNT
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Montenegro
The Montenegrin Economy To 2020
Table: MONTENE GRO Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 2.4: Business Environment - Montenegro
SWOT Analysis
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Kosovo
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Kosovo
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Table: GDP BY EXPEN DITURE
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat
Table: Global Assumptions
TABLE: GLOBAL & RE GIONA L REA L GDP GRO WTH % CHG Y-O-Y
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS
Chapter 5: Sector Forecast Appendix
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
Table; Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
Table: Ph armaceuticals Sector Key Indicators
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
Table: Freigh t Key Indicators
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