Download Monthly Economic and Financial Developments September 2007 Release Date: 14 November 2007

Release Date: 14 November 2007
Monthly Economic and Financial Developments
September 2007
In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance
activities, the Central Bank has decided to release monthly reports on economic and financial
sector developments in The Bahamas. The Bank monitors these conditions as part of its monetary
policy mandate, to assess whether money and credit trends are sustainable relative to levels of
external reserves required to protect the value of the Bahamian dollar and, if not, the degree to
which credit policies ought to be adjusted. The main data source for this surveillance is financial
institutions’ daily reports on foreign exchange transactions and weekly balance sheet statements.
Therefore, monthly approximations may not coincide with calendar estimates reported in the
Central Bank’s quarterly reports. The Central Bank will release its “Monthly Economic and
Financial Developments” report on the Monday following its monthly Monetary Policy Committee
Meeting.
Future Release Dates:
2007: December 3rd
Page 1
1. Domestic Economic Developments
Indications are that the expansion in the Bahamian economy moderated somewhat during
September, amid a leveling off in foreign investment inflow and tourism activity. Strengthened
seasonal demand for foreign currency also contributed to a fall-off in both bank liquidity and
external reserves.
Total visitor arrivals fell by 7.0% during the first seven months of 2007, in comparison to the
previous year, due to contractions in both the air and sea segments, by 8.0% and 6.5%,
respectively. All of the major ports registered declines, with the largest decrease noted for the
Family Islands of 8.6% to 0.8 million visitors. Similarly, travelers to the Grand Bahama market fell
by 8.3% to 0.4 million, and arrivals to New Providence weakened by 5.9% to 1.6 million.
On the fiscal side, the deficit for the first two months of FY2007/08 stood at $23.2 million, in
contrast to a $0.4 million surplus in the corresponding period of FY2006/07. This outturn reflected
a 7.7% rise in expenditure, as current and capital outlays firmed by 4.1% and 25.0%, respectively.
Moreover, total revenue moderated by 3.4%, occasioned by a 5.4% contraction in tax receipts
which overshadowed the growth in non-tax revenue.
Inflation for the twelve months ending September moved higher vis-à-vis last year by 0.8
percentage points to 2.42%, owing to continuing price pressures from higher fuel costs. The most
significant increases were recorded for other goods and services (4.62%), furniture & household
operation (3.98%), food and beverages (3.82%), and recreation & entertainment services (3.35%).
2. International Developments
Based on the September edition of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook”, the global economy
expanded by a robust 5% in the first half of 2007, mainly reflecting positive developments in China
and India, and expectations are for an additional 4.75% advance in the July to December period.
However, several risks remain to this outlook, including the adverse impact of the United States
mortgage crisis on the global financial system and continuing concerns over oil price induced
inflation. Consequently, a number of central banks have adopted a cautious “wait and see”
approach to monetary policy, with the exception of the Federal Reserve, which loosened monetary
policy to stimulate aggregate demand in the United States’ economy.
Conditions in the United States real estate sector continued to be negative during the review
month. Housing starts fell by 10.2% to an annual rate of 1.19 million units, the lowest level in over
a decade, and building permits contracted by 7.3% to a yearly rate of 1.23 million units. However,
other sectors of the economy showed signs of improvement, as the trade deficit narrowed by $1.4
billion to $57.6 billion in August, with the decline in the US dollar contributing to the $0.6 billion
expansion in exports, while imports waned by $0.8 billion. Retail sales in September rose by 0.6%
over the previous month. The unemployment rate was relatively unchanged at 4.7%, as gains in
non-farm employment of approximately 110,000 negated accretions to the labour force. In
response to an appreciable deterioration in financial market conditions during September and the
fear that there would be some spill over into the wider economy, the Federal Reserve reduced the
federal funds rate for the first time in four years, by 50 basis points to 4.75%. The discount rate
was also lowered by a similar magnitude to 5.25%.
Page 2
The robust growth observed in the Chinese economy during the first half the year continued
unabated in the third quarter, as increased investments, retail sales and exports propelled the rise
in GDP over the nine month period to 11.5%. Correspondingly, the country’s trade surplus rose by
69% to $185.7 billion, resulting in foreign exchange reserves strengthening by over 45.1% on a
year-on-year basis to a record $1.43 trillion. Buoyed by the rapid rise in foreign and domestic
investments, consumer price inflation, on a point-to-point basis, firmed by 5.2% in August. The
Central Bank continued its policy of reducing the level of monetary accommodation during the
review month, increasing the benchmark deposit and lending rates by 0.27 percentage points
each, to 3.87% and 7.29%, respectively. In addition, the Bank raised the commercial banks’
reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points.
Preliminary data for Japan showed industrial production in August rising by 3.4% on a monthly
basis, following a rebound in auto manufacturing in the aftermath of the July earthquake. In
addition, the trade surplus strengthened by more than 13.7% from the previous month to ¥892.2
billion, as the 2.4% contraction in imports offset the marginal fall in exports. Average prices in
August rose by 0.5% on a monthly basis, but declined by 0.2% over the previous year. Given
these developments, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%.
Despite the dislocation in the financial sector in September, caused by the uncertainty surrounding
the solvency of a major mortgage lender, indications are that the UK economy continued to
strengthen. Preliminary data for the three months ended August revealed that industrial production
advanced by 0.4% relative to the previous quarter, and retail sales were 1.3% higher supported by
heightened non-food related purchases. The August trade deficit narrowed by ₤0.5 billion to ₤4.1
billion, reflecting an improvement in the goods deficit to ₤6.9 billion from a revised ₤7.4 billion a
month earlier. The unemployment rate steadied at 5.4% in the three-months to August, while
consumer prices increased by 1.8% in September, buoyed by higher costs for food products.
Meanwhile, in light of the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the financial sector crisis on the
wider economy, the Bank of England maintained its main interest rate at 5.75% in September.
Revised second quarter GDP estimates for the euro area showed total output increasing by 0.3%,
although 0.5 percentage points lower than the expansion registered in the previous quarter.
However, increased production of non-durable consumer goods supported a higher expansion in
industrial production of 1.2% in August vis-à-vis 0.7% a month earlier. The unemployment rate
was unchanged on a monthly basis at 6.9%; while increased costs for housing, transport and food
products led to inflation rising by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%. At its September meeting, the
ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged in the wake of growing uncertainty surrounding the
global financial markets.
In September, ongoing geopolitical tensions, combined with production disruptions in the Gulf of
Mexico, elevated oil prices by 9.3% above the previous mark to $78.84 per barrel. Production
expanded by 0.24 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 30.6 mb/d, amid a rebound in oil production
from Iraq and, in an effort to ensure adequate crude supplies to meet the demand of the upcoming
winter season, OPEC agreed to boost its production by 0.5 mb/d beginning November 1st, 2007.
Given volatile crude oil prices, uncertainty in the financial markets and a depreciating US dollar,
investors increased their demand for safer investments. As a result, the price of gold rose by
10.4% to $743.60 per ounce and silver firmed by 14.0% to $13.77 per ounce.
Page 3
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates to prevent the housing crisis from expanding to
the wider economy helped to push global stock indices higher during the review month. In the US,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 advanced by 4.03% and 3.26%, respectively;
while in Europe, the FTSE 100 moved higher by 2.59%, the CAC 40, by 0.94% and the DAX, by
2.92%. Similarly, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 1.31%.
3. Domestic Monetary Trends
During September, monetary and credit trends featured contractions in both liquidity and external
reserves, reflecting continued seasonal firming in domestic credit, which outstripped accretions to
deposit balances. However, the year-to-date outcome continues to show a comparatively
moderated rate of credit growth which, when combined with strong foreign investment inflows,
occasioned notable improvements in liquidity and external reserves.
September 2007 vs. 2006
During the review period, excess reserves declined by $28.1 million, reversing the $50.5 million
gain witnessed in 2006 which was boosted by extraordinary real sector transactions. Similarly,
excess liquid assets contracted by $60.4 million, following a $51.6 million expansion a year earlier.
The fall-off in external reserves broadened to $86.6 million during from $18.7 million in 2006, as the
Central Bank’s net foreign currency sale expanded by $67.0 million to meet both private and public
sector demand. In particular, the Bank’s net sale to commercial banks advanced strongly by $36.3
million, as they facilitated a $21.2 million hike in their corresponding net sale to the public, to $49.2
million. Further, the Bank’s net sale to the public sector firmed by $30.6 million to $32.0 million,
following last year’s extraordinary purchases associated with the Kerzner privatization transaction.
During the review month, Bahamian dollar credit growth surged by $107.2 million vis-à-vis a $32.5
million increase last year. Higher borrowings by way of advances and Treasury bill issues led to a
reversal in Government’s transactions, from a net repayment of $55.9 million in the previous year,
to a net liability of $58.1 million in the current period. In contrast, private sector credit growth
tapered off by more than 40% to $49.8 million, as accretions to consumer credit and mortgages
slowed by $8.3 million and $8.4 million, to $14.7 million and $24.4 million, respectively. Further,
credit to the rest of the public sector fell by $0.7 million, reversing the 2006 $3.9 million upturn.
Following a contraction of $19.2 million in the previous year, foreign currency credit waned by $4.0
million in the current period. This decrease reflected a $3.7 million moderation in private sector
credit, compared to a downturn of $17.7 million in 2006. Similarly, occasioned by an increase in
deposits, net claims on the Government narrowed by $0.5 million, while credit to the rest of the
public sector recorded a marginal expansion.
Growth in Bahamian dollar deposits strengthened by $3.2 million to $14.4 million, and included an
apparent shift to longer-term deposits. Specifically, accretions to fixed deposits firmed by $47.3
million to $48.2 million in contrast to a $34.9 million drop in demand balances following a marginal
$0.4 million advance a year earlier. Savings deposit growth moderated by $8.8 million to $1.0
million.
Page 4
The weighted average deposit rate rose by 7 basis points during the review month to 3.75%, with
the highest rate registered at 6.75% for fixed maturities over 6-12 months. Conversely, the
weighted average loan rate fell by 9 basis points to 10.63%.
January - September 2007
Monetary conditions through the first nine months of 2007 continued to be buoyed by the strong
foreign currency inflows in the opening months of the year which augmented both liquidity and
external reserves. While growth in excess reserves was slightly lower at $42.9 million, the broader
measure of liquid assets surged by $125.3 million vis-à-vis $50.2 million in 2006, as was observed
in banks’ increased holdings of Government paper.
External reverses posted growth of $19.4 million during the nine month period, compared to a
$35.2 million reduction a year earlier. Underlying this development was a reversal in the Central
Bank’s net foreign currency transactions, to a net purchase of $2.7 million from a net sale of $51.2
million. This was supported out of a 71% hike in commercial banks’ net sale to the Bank to $171.3
million, as their net purchase from customers doubled to $158.2 million. However, the Bank’s net
sale to the public sector strengthened by $17.8 million to $168.6 million.
Reflecting a slowdown in private sector credit growth, the accretion to Bahamian dollar credit was
lower by 10% at $471.9 million. The advance in claims on the private sector weakened by 31.8%
to $371.3 million, reflecting the moderation in mortgages and consumer credit growth, by $35.4
million and $26.2 million to $219.8 million and $143.2 million, respectively. Moreover, credit to the
rest of the public sector narrowed by $60.7 million, a reversal from a $28.3 million increase noted a
year earlier. By contrast, net claims on the Government firmed by $161.3 million in the current
period, a turnaround from the $48.3 million decline recorded in 2006.
Foreign currency credit fell by $3.2 million in the January to September period, vis-à-vis a $73.0
million gain last year. In particular, there was a sharp reduction in private sector credit expansion,
from $36.5 million last year to $1.2 million, and both net claims on Government and credit to the
rest of the public sector fell by $1.7 million and $2.8 million, respectively.
Growth in total Bahamian dollar deposits strengthened to $365.0 million from $257.6 million in the
previous period. Reflecting some shift from demand to higher yielding balances, the accretion to
fixed deposits more than doubled to $294.7 million, and was slightly higher for savings deposits at
$66.2 million. Conversely, gains in demand deposits slackened to $4.0 million from last year’s
$52.2 million rise.
4. Outlook
The Bahamian economy is expected to maintain a moderated growth profile through the balance of
this year, supported by stable domestic demand and ongoing activity in the construction sector.
However, additional pressure will be exerted on external reserves, based on expectations of
continuing higher oil prices and increased imports related to the seasonal build up in inventories.
Page 5
Recent Monetary and Credit Statistics
(B$ Millions)
SEPTEMBER
Value
2006
Change
2006
2007
2007
Change YTD
2006
2007
1.0 LIQUIDITY & FOREIGN ASSETS
1.1 Excess Reserves
1.2 Excess Liquid Assets
1.3 External Reserves
1.4 Bank’s Net Foreign Assets
1.5 Usable Reserves
244.46
162.60
547.71
-653.35
221.87
179.09
134.77
471.31
-677.00
165.30
50.49
51.63
-18.71
33.30
-40.86
-28.09
-60.36
-86.55
13.34
-69.24
49.08
50.15
-35.22
-83.42
-38.25
42.93
125.33
19.40
-44.60
6.60
2.0 DOMESTIC CREDIT
2.1 Private Sector
a. B$ Credit
of which: Consumer Credit
Mortgages
b. F/C Credit
of which: Mortgages
2.2 Central Government (net)
a. B$ Loans & Securities
Less Deposits
b. F/C Loans & Securities
Less Deposits
2.3 Rest of Public Sector
a. B$ Credit
b. F/C Credit
2.4 Total Domestic Credit
a. B$ Domestic Credit
b. F/C Domestic Credit
5,498.81
5,000.35
1,819.24
2,161.55
498.46
26.72
601.92
717.13
128.83
16.48
2.86
362.33
126.56
235.77
6,463.06
5,715.21
747.85
6,020.54
5,524.85
2,029.53
2,460.08
495.70
40.09
827.65
947.02
120.34
4.06
3.10
310.26
71.10
239.16
7,158.45
6,422.63
735.82
66.85
84.54
23.04
32.84
-17.69
-10.51
-57.41
-48.54
7.36
0.00
1.51
3.86
3.86
0.00
13.31
32.50
-19.19
46.18
49.83
14.74
24.42
-3.65
3.01
57.64
57.73
-0.36
0.00
0.45
-0.58
-0.68
0.10
103.23
107.24
-4.01
580.95
544.41
169.40
255.16
36.53
14.43
-32.68
-33.78
14.47
16.48
0.91
49.14
28.26
20.88
597.41
524.42
72.98
372.51
371.27
143.18
219.80
1.24
8.77
159.61
157.81
-3.51
-0.90
0.80
-63.42
-60.67
-2.76
468.70
471.92
-3.22
3.0 DEPOSIT BASE
3.1 Demand Deposits
a. Central Bank
b. Banks
3.2 Savings Deposits
3.3 Fixed Deposits
3.4 Total B$ Deposits
3.5 F/C Deposits of Residents
3.6 M2
3.7 External Reserves/M2 (%)
3.8 External Reserves/Base Money (%)
1,107.78
8.21
1,099.57
943.78
2,721.60
4,773.16
158.98
4,955.28
11.05
87.32
1,080.75
12.72
1,068.04
1,016.95
3,075.67
5,173.38
184.68
5,371.35
8.77
80.02
0.42
-4.57
4.99
9.80
0.95
11.17
-3.06
5.77
-0.39
-10.06
-34.87
-1.68
-33.19
1.04
48.22
14.39
-2.21
8.65
-1.63
-9.52
52.16
-21.66
73.82
60.88
144.56
257.60
9.29
234.25
-1.29
-11.77
3.99
-4.50
8.49
66.24
294.73
364.96
3.77
337.77
-0.20
-0.37
Value
2006
4.0 FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS
4.1 Central Bank Net Purchase/(Sale)
a. Net Purchase/(Sale) from/to Banks
i. Sales to Banks
ii. Purchases from Banks
b. Net Purchase/(Sale) from/to Others
i. Sales to Others
ii. Purchases from Others
4.2 Banks Net Purchase/(Sale)
a. Sales to Customers
b. Purchases from Customers
4.3 B$ Position (change)
5.0 EXCHANGE CONTROL SALES
5.1 Current Items
of which Public Sector
a. Nonoil Imports
b. Oil Imports
c. Travel
d. Factor Income
e. Transfers
f. Other Current Items
5.2 Capital Items
of which Public Sector
5.3 Bank Remittances
-21.01
-19.68
43.65
23.96
-1.33
39.47
38.14
-27.99
317.67
289.68
23.36
336.57
41.91
121.97
77.22
23.18
23.40
11.99
78.82
27.67
1.27
16.00
294.82
42.55
115.12
57.90
16.41
15.15
8.52
81.72
8.41
1.72
5.89
Year to Date
2006
2007
2007
-87.99
-56.03
64.86
8.84
-31.96
41.57
9.61
-49.18
285.42
236.23
12.47
-51.17
99.60
229.40
329.00
-150.76
327.06
176.30
74.07
2,463.43
2,537.50
2,631.29
389.60
1,110.68
424.39
199.99
112.27
61.08
722.88
148.85
24.32
43.00
2.66
171.26
225.55
396.81
-168.59
374.31
205.71
158.24
2,558.85
2,717.09
2,547.82
383.57
1,076.36
344.92
195.41
81.47
69.34
780.32
82.71
30.21
24.87
Change
Month
YTD
-66.98
-36.34
21.22
-15.13
-30.64
2.11
-28.53
-21.20
-32.25
-53.45
-41.76
0.64
-6.85
-19.33
-6.76
-8.26
-3.47
2.90
-19.26
0.45
-10.11
53.83
71.66
-3.85
67.81
-17.83
47.24
29.41
84.17
95.41
179.59
-83.47
-6.03
-34.32
-79.47
-4.58
-30.79
8.26
57.44
-66.14
5.90
-18.13
Sources: Research Department Weekly Brief Database and Banking Brief for the weeks ending:SEPTEMBER 27, 2006 and SEPTEMBER 26, 2007
Exchange Control Sales figures are as at month end.
Page 6
Notes: 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 YTD change reflects change of current month over previous year end; for 4.0 and 5.0 change is over corresponding period of previous year.
Components may not sum to totals due to round-off error.
SELECTED MONEY AND CREDIT INDICATORS
(B$ Millions)
Excess Reserves
300
Excess Liquid Assets
250
200
250
150
200
150
100
Jul
Aug
2007
Sep
50
Jul
Aug
2007
2007
2006
900
2007
2006
Central Govt. Credit (Net)
380
800
360
700
340
600
320
500
Jul
Aug
2007
Sep
Rest of Public Sector Credit
300
Jul
Aug
2007
2007
2006
Sep
2007
2006
Private Sector Credit
6200
Sep
M3
5600
6000
5400
5800
5600
5200
5400
5200
Jul
Aug
2007
Sep
5000
Jul
Aug
2007
2007
2006
Sep
2007
2006
Changes in Money, Credit & Ext. Reserves
400
200
0
-200
-400
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2007
M3
Domestic Credit
External Reserves
Page 7
Selected International Statistics
A: Selected Macroeconomic Projections
(Annual % Change and % of labor force)
Bahamas
United States
Euro-Area
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Real GDP
2006
2007
4.0
4.5
3.3
2.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.5
Inflation Rate
2006
2007
1.9
1.9
3.2
1.9
2.2
2.0
1.8
2.0
0.2
0.3
2.3
2.3
2.0
1.7
Unemployment
2006
2007
7.6
n/a
4.6
4.8
7.7
7.3
8.1
7.8
4.1
4.0
5.4
5.3
6.3
6.2
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2007 & The Bahamas
Department of Statistics.
B: Official Interest Rates - Selected Countries (%)
With effect
CBOB
Bank
ECB (EU)
Refinancing
from
Rate
Rate
January 2006
February 2006
March 2006
April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
September 2006
October 2006
November 2006
December 2006
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
August 2007
September 2007
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
2.25
2.25
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.75
2.75
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.75
3.75
3.75
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
Federal Reserve (US)
Primary
Target
Credit
Rate
5.50
5.50
5.75
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
5.75
5.25
Funds
Rate
4.50
4.50
4.75
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
4.75
Bank of
England
Repo Rate
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.75
4.75
4.75
5.00
5.00
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.50
5.50
5.75
5.75
5.75
Page 8
Selected International Statistics
C. Selected Currencies
(Per United States Dollars)
Currency
Sep-06
Aug-07
Sep-07
Euro
Yen
Pound
Canadian $
Swiss Franc
0.7890
0.7337
0.7009
118.18
115.78
114.8
0.5341
0.4958
1.1180
1.2506
Mthly
%
Change
YTD %
Change
12-Mth%
Change
-4.5
-7.5
-11.2
-0.8
-3.6
-2.9
0.4884
-1.5
-4.3
-8.5
1.0557
0.9923
-6.0
-14.9
-11.2
1.2085
1.164
-3.7
-4.5
-6.9
Source: Bloomberg as at September 30 , 2007
D. Selected Commodity Prices ($)
Commodity
Gold / Ounce
Silver / Ounce
Oil / Barrel
Sep 2006
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Mthly % YTD %
Change Change
598.30
673.40
743.60
10.4
11.44
12.08
13.77
14.0
6.7
62.57
72.1
78.84
9.3
29.7
16.8
Source: Bloomberg as at September 30, 2007
E. Equity Market Valuations – September, 2007 (%chg)
DJIA
**S&P
500
1.95
4.03
3.26
2.59
0.94
2.92
1.31
3.53
5.17
4.36
1.68
-0.62
3.66
-2.69
13.92
11.49
6.73
3.95
3.14
19.17
-2.56
17.15
18.98
14.32
8.49
8.87
30.93
4.08
BISX
1 month
3 month
YTD
12-month
FTSE 100
CAC 40
DAX
Nikkei
225
Sources: Bloomberg and BISX
F: Short Term Deposit Rates in Selected Currencies (%)
o/n
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
9 Month
1 year
USD
GBP
EUR
5.00
5.75
3.60
5.15
5.98
4.32
5.33
6.15
4.73
5.13
6.15
4.70
5.01
6.12
4.64
4.94
6.02
4.63
Source: Bloomberg, as at September30 , 2007
**Revised
Page 9
Page 10
-10.21
6.83
0.00
17.03
B. Rest of Public Sector (Net) (i + ii - iii)
i) BDB Loans
ii) BMC Bonds
iii) Deposits
681.33
289.38
391.95
-107.10
678.42
294.91
383.51
-106.63
0.00
-9.82
6.83
0.00
16.65
186.56
71.99
115.38
9.99
10.81
70.11
608.31
Aug. 08
* Includes capital, provisions and surplus account, fixed and other assets, and other demand liabilities of Bank
III. Monetary Base
A. Currency in Circulation
B. Bank Balances with CBOB
D. Other Items (Net)*
0.00
188.79
71.99
115.00
9.99
8.18
A. Net Credit to Gov’t( i + ii + iii - iv)
i) Advances
ii) Registered Stock
iii) Treasury Bills
iv) Deposits
C. Loans to/Deposits with Banks
71.49
609.84
II. Net Domestic Assets (A + B + C + D)
I. External Resrves
Aug. 01
661.16
291.20
369.96
-107.09
0.00
-6.66
6.83
0.00
13.49
177.84
71.99
115.52
0.00
9.67
64.09
597.07
Aug. 15
647.51
279.86
367.65
-106.61
0.00
-2.83
6.83
0.00
9.65
171.65
71.99
115.53
0.00
15.87
62.21
585.30
Aug. 22
623.03
286.44
336.58
-105.82
0.00
-7.57
6.83
0.00
14.39
178.55
71.99
115.53
0.00
8.96
65.16
557.86
Aug. 29
VALUE
641.11
286.37
354.74
-106.69
0.00
-9.80
6.83
0.00
16.62
229.83
71.99
115.39
55.76
13.31
113.34
527.77
Sep. 05
624.51
280.80
343.71
-106.98
0.00
-12.62
6.83
0.00
19.44
229.63
71.99
115.32
50.79
8.46
110.04
514.47
Sep. 12
616.21
275.38
340.82
-108.35
0.00
-8.07
6.83
0.00
14.90
235.48
71.99
115.27
78.61
30.39
119.06
497.15
Sep. 19
(B$ Millions)
589.00
283.70
305.30
-107.17
0.00
-5.89
6.83
0.00
12.72
230.76
71.99
100.13
68.68
10.04
117.69
471.31
Sep. 26
70.51
10.52
59.99
-2.21
0.00
16.35
0.00
0.00
-16.35
57.46
0.00
-0.01
9.99
-47.49
71.60
-1.09
Aug. 01
-2.91
5.53
-8.44
0.47
0.00
0.39
0.00
0.00
-0.39
-2.24
0.00
0.39
0.00
2.63
-1.38
-1.52
Aug. 08
SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE CENTRAL BANK
-17.26
-3.71
-13.55
-0.46
0.00
3.16
0.00
0.00
-3.16
-8.72
0.00
0.13
-9.99
-1.14
-6.02
-11.25
Aug. 15
-13.65
-11.34
-2.31
0.48
0.00
3.83
0.00
0.00
-3.83
-6.19
0.00
0.01
0.00
6.20
-1.88
-11.77
Aug. 22
-24.48
6.59
-31.07
0.79
0.00
-4.74
0.00
0.00
4.74
6.90
0.00
-0.00
0.00
-6.90
2.95
-27.43
Aug. 29
CHANGE
18.08
-0.07
18.15
-0.87
0.00
-2.23
0.00
0.00
2.23
51.27
0.00
-0.14
55.76
4.35
48.18
-30.10
Sep. 05
-16.60
-5.57
-11.02
-0.29
0.00
-2.82
0.00
0.00
2.82
-0.19
0.00
-0.07
-4.97
-4.85
-3.30
-13.29
Sep. 12
-8.31
-5.42
-2.89
-1.38
0.00
4.55
0.00
0.00
-4.55
5.84
0.00
-0.04
27.82
21.93
9.01
-17.32
Sep. 19
-27.20
8.32
-35.52
1.18
0.00
2.18
0.00
0.00
-2.18
-4.72
0.00
-15.15
-9.93
-20.36
-1.36
-25.84
Sep. 26
Page 11
-0.8
-95.63%
5. Deficit/Surplus*
% change
0.0
335.83
0.0
260.54
109.8
5.64%
187.7
9.82%
14. Air arrivals (000's)
% change; over previous year
15. Occupied Room Nights
% change; over previous year
161.6
-13.91%
103.4
-5.83%
397.3
2.31%
121.2
0.51%
2007
630.2
-0.03%
AUG
14.0
85.10%
99.0
-2.58%
40.0
-6.90%
94.3
-15.35%
2007/2008
FEB
FEB
202.0
6.71%
128.7
2.47%
393.8
-5.64%
117.8
-0.01%
2006
547.9
-13.06%
0.0
260.59
0.1
-92.16%
2,022.7
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
287.3
0.27%
2,310.0
0.03%
2006
Annual/Y-T-D Retail Price data are averages.
MAR
2,002.7
-0.99%
0.0
0.00%
287.2
-0.02%
2,289.9
-0.87%
2006
3.2
185.51%
13.0
11.04%
90.7
-2.60%
34.4
-25.76%
169.8
-15.94%
118.1
-8.22%
376.7
-4.35%
121.42
0.16%
2007
628.4
14.70%
0.0
334.12
MAR
54.5
7.88%
241.5
0.12%
171.6
3.79%
503.5
-1.85%
117.8
0.02%
2006
570.4
4.11%
0.0
283.16
** Debt figures pertain to central government only unless otherwise indicated
p - provisional
SEP
114.1
6.87%
2006/2007
10.1
20.6
1915.69% 26166.94%
2,082.1
-0.48%
1.6
0.00%
292.7
-0.03%
2,376.4
-0.42%
2007
1.1
-23.8
-250.13% -3762.37%
11.7
110.95%
93.1
-6.57%
46.3
22.49%
106.7
0.59%
2006/2007
* Includes Net Lending to Public Corporations
388.4
-6.74%
13. Tourist arrivals (000's)
% change; over previous year
16. Res. Mortgage Commitments-New Const.
% change; over previous qtr.
117.8
-0.10%
12. Retail Price Index
% change; over previous month
JAN
2006
Real Sector Indicators
11.Total Public Sector F/C Debt
547.1
-37.10%
0.5
-50.94%
1.0
-90.12%
10. Total Amortization
% change
check
2,092.1
-0.02%
2,022.7
3.80%
9. Bahamian Dollar Debt
% change
1.6
0.00%
292.8
1.25%
2,386.5
0.13%
0.0
-100.00%
286.5
0.67%
2,309.2
3.31%
2007
0.7
#DIV/0!
7.6
#DIV/0!
101.6
#DIV/0!
42.9
#DIV/0!
111.4
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
8. Internal F/C Debt
% change
7. External Debt
% change
6. Total Debt
% change
JAN
5.6
-75.70%
4. Capital Expenditure
% change
2006
99.6
-21.76%
3. Recurrent Expenditure
% change
DebtP **
37.8
-44.11%
2. Import Duties
% change
JUL
106.1
-25.68%
2006/2007
1. Government Revenue & Grants
% change
Fiscal OperationsP
OCT
11.3
-13.19%
103.3
13.90%
38.0
10.66%
79.4
-30.44%
2006/2007
27.0
4.50%
220.2
-8.82%
168.0
-2.08%
500.0
-0.70%
121.5
0.04%
2007
625.4
9.63%
0.0
330.33
0.7
-93.29%
2,132.1
2.40%
1.6
0.00%
293.4
0.25%
2,427.1
2.13%
2007
APR
APR
144.0
-9.6%
423.2
-14.8%
121.7
0.2%
2007
622.9
9.39%
0.0
354.23
32.9
4773.78%
2,146.6
0.68%
0.7
-57.17%
268.0
-8.68%
2,415.3
-0.49%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
216.6
n.a.
2.28% #VALUE!
159.3
9.58%
496.9
0.21%
118.9
1.0%
2006
569.4
-0.18%
0.0
281.28
1.9
-90.88%
2,002.2
-0.02%
2.3
225.78%
285.9
-0.48%
2,290.3
0.02%
2006
-41.8
-100.00% -1394.15%
-100.00%
-100.00%
-100.00%
-100.00%
2007/2008
NOV
MAY
MAY
126.5
-8.6%
359.5
-11.2%
122.1
0.3%
2007
622.4
3.85%
0.0
352.14
25.0
-24.06%
2,166.9
0.94%
0.7
0.00%
269.6
0.59%
2,437.1
0.91%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
201.7
n.a.
7.59% #VALUE!
138.4
1.24%
404.7
-0.22%
119.6
0.6%
2006
599.3
5.25%
0.0
310.94
26.6
1317.39%
2,028.1
1.29%
2.5
0.00%
285.9
0.00%
2,316.5
1.14%
2006
-8.6
-79.53%
10.3
-8.47%
111.1
7.62%
43.4
14.11%
115.7
45.83%
2006/2007
DEC
JUN
JUN
50.3
-7.8%
206.7
-4.69%
152.2
1.72%
408.5
3.59%
119.8
0.2%
2006
592.3
-1.16%
0.0
304.09
0.1
-99.55%
2,028.1
0.00%
2.5
0.00%
285.7
-0.04%
2,316.3
-0.01%
2006
-3.4
-60.14%
13.6
31.92%
85.3
-23.25%
36.4
-16.04%
104.0
-10.10%
2006/2007
JAN
JUL
2,008.1
-0.99%
2.5
0.00%
286.8
0.36%
2,297.4
-0.82%
2006
-20.2
492.23%
11.1
-18.90%
124.7
46.25%
40.9
12.22%
123.3
18.53%
2006/2007
30.7
13.6%
-100.0%
139.9
-8.1%
369.3
-9.6%
122.3
0.2%
2007
617.0
4.16%
0.0
345.67
JUL
214.8
-6.61%
151.1
-8.00%
418.1
-10.96%
120.2
0.4%
2006
589.5
-0.47%
0.0
300.27
0.1
20.0
-99.57% 16544.34%
2,166.9
0.00%
0.7
0.00%
270.6
0.40%
2,438.2
0.04%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
(% change represents current month from previous month)
(B$ MILLIONS)
-100.0%
130.4
-13.7%
376.8
-9.9%
122.6
0.2%
2007
613.2
4.02%
0.0
341.88
0.5
369.73%
2,266.4
4.59%
0.7
0.00%
270.6
0.00%
2,537.7
4.08%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
FISCAL/REAL SECTOR INDICATORS
FEB
AUG
AUG
183.4
-8.22%
113.3
-6.73%
348.9
-6.56%
120.4
0.1%
2006
589.4
-0.02%
0.0
300.26
10.1
-49.61%
1,998.1
-0.50%
2.5
0.00%
286.7
-0.03%
2,287.3
-0.44%
2006
-4.8
-76.08%
15.5
40.34%
100.6
-19.36%
36.6
-10.51%
115.4
-6.41%
2006/2007
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
122.6
0.0%
2007
613.3
4.05%
0.0
340.10
0.1
-81.14%
2,266.4
0.00%
0.7
0.00%
272.6
0.71%
2,539.6
0.08%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
MAR
SEP
2,274.4
0.35%
0.7
0.00%
271.8
-0.27%
2,546.9
0.29%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
SEP
35.1
-30.2%
121.3
-1.38%
69.5
-4.57%
269.8
-6.87%
120.4
0.0%
2006
583.5
-1.01%
0.0
292.92
0.0
-100.0%
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
123.2
0.5%
2007
607.0
4.03%
0.0
334.49
5.6
20.7
-44.39% 21890.55%
2,108.1
5.51%
2.5
0.00%
288.1
0.48%
2,398.7
4.87%
2006
-11.2
132.04%
9.6
-38.39%
110.0
9.32%
44.2
20.79%
113.3
-1.87%
2006/2007
APR
OCT
OCT
131.8
-10.52%
82.5
-2.76%
297.6
-14.17%
120.7
0.3%
2006
581.2
-0.39%
0.0
291.14
16.5
193.70%
2,093.1
-0.71%
2.5
0.00%
287.6
-0.17%
2,383.2
-0.65%
2006
-23.3
107.30%
18.3
91.13%
106.8
-2.86%
44.3
0.31%
105.6
-6.77%
2006/2007
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
2007
0.0
-100.00%
0.0
-100.00%
-100.00%
0.00%
-100.00%
-100.00%
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
MAY
NOV
NOV
-100.00%
111.3
-3.79%
372.3
-13.44%
120.6
-0.1%
2006
581.9
0.11%
0.0
290.80
0.5
-96.96%
2,092.6
-0.02%
2.5
0.00%
288.6
0.34%
2,383.7
0.02%
2005
18.3
-178.85%
12.1
-33.64%
91.7
-14.19%
45.1
1.60%
126.7
20.01%
2006/2007
#DIV/0!
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
#DIV/0!
2007
0.0
#DIV/0!
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.00%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2006
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
JUN
DEC
DEC
35.1
0.0%
-100.00%
103.7
-19.39%
428.0
-12.54%
120.6
0.0%
2006
630.4
8.34%
0.0
339.64
1.0
103.84%
2,092.6
0.00%
1.6
-36.37%
289.2
0.21%
2,383.4
-0.01%
2006
-100.00%
-100.00%
-100.00%
-100.00%
-100.00%
2006/2007
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
-100.0%
0.0
#DIV/0!
2007
0.0
#DIV/0!
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007/2008
2007/2008
YEAR TO DATE
2006/2007
21.6
24.96%
200.6
4.07%
82.9
-1.42%
205.7
-3.38%
104.80
11.46%
631.20
4.95%
1011.3
22.32%
3013.9
14.05%
119.2
1.66%
2007
57.7
-44.93%
551.60
-12.61%
930.3
-8.00%
2802.9
-7.00%
122.1
2.44%
(Over previous year)
2006
YEAR TO DATE
869.8
10.1
1948.7
0.0
284.6
dec
2235.2
2005
December
0.4
-23.2
-110.22% -6235.19%
17.3
49.97%
192.7
9.27%
84.1
17.28%
212.9
14.92%
(Over previous year)