Download Monthly Economic and Financial Developments October 2005 Release Date: 29 November 2005

Release Date: 29 November 2005
Monthly Economic and Financial Developments
October 2005
In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance
activities, the Central Bank has decided to release monthly reports on economic and financial
sector developments in The Bahamas. The Bank monitors these conditions as part of its monetary
policy mandate, to assess whether money and credit trends are sustainable relative to levels of
external reserves required to protect the value of the Bahamian dollar and, if not, the degree to
which credit policies ought to be adjusted. The main data source for this surveillance is financial
institutions’ daily reports on foreign exchange transactions and weekly balance sheet statements.
Therefore, monthly approximations may not coincide with calendar estimates reported in the
Central Bank’s quarterly reports. The Central Bank will release its “Monthly Economic and
Financial Developments” report on the Monday following its monthly Monetary Policy Committee
Meeting.
Future Release Dates:
2006: 3rd January, 30th January, 27th February, 3rd April, 1st May, 29th May, 3rd July, 31st July, 4th
September, 2nd October, 30th October, 4th December
Page 1
1. Domestic Economic Developments
Domestic economic developments for the month of October highlighted continued expansion in the
construction sector, alongside robust growth in private sector demand as evidenced by increased
mortgage and consumer lending. Indications are that the slowdown in tourism output experienced
over the first nine months of the year, continued in October as a result of the passage of Hurricane
Wilma. However, growth in the Bahamian economy over the January to October period was
buttressed by robust domestic consumption expenditures, expansionary conditions in residential
construction activity and ongoing tourism investments.
Year-to-date tourism statistics up to September 2005 indicated a contraction in arrivals of 3.1% to
3,773,862 for the entire Bahamas. Compared to the year-earlier period, air visitors rose by a
modest 1.7%, but were offset by a 5.1% decline in sea arrivals. The downturn was concentrated in
Grand Bahama where overall visitors decreased by 19.9%, with both air and sea tourists declining
by 30.3% and 13.2%, respectively. Arrivals to the Family Islands were reduced by 2.4%, with the
3.1% reduction in sea visitors outpacing a 0.8% increase in air visitors. Developments in the
tourism sector continue to be aided by the positive performance of New Providence, where the
11.8% hike in air arrivals offset the 4.2% falloff in sea visitors for a 1.2% gain in overall arrivals.
Domestic prices for the 12-months ending October 2005 rose by 2.07% from 1.08%, with average
cost hikes for medical care & health, transportation & communication, food & beverage, and
education services.
Preliminary estimates for Government’s budgetary operations for the first quarter of FY2005/06
reflected a reduction in the overall deficit to $20.4 million from $47.3 million in the same quarter for
FY2004/05. Improved revenue collection measures and heightened import demand led to a 23.5%
increase in total tax receipts to $251.7 million, while combined non-tax and capital revenue
earnings rose more than two-fold to $20.1 million. Total expenditure moved higher by 12.3% over
last year’s $292.2 million, due to increases in both current and capital expenditures.
In domestic financial developments, on October 17, 2005, Consolidated Water Co. Ltd., based in
the Cayman Islands, commenced its Bahamian Depositary Receipts (“BDRs”) offering,
representing 650,000 ordinary common shares, to the Bahamian public. Fidelity Capital Markets
Limited is acting as placement agent for the company. The offering expires November 4, 2005 and
the company plans to raise $11.2 million for the construction of a new seawater desalination plant
and expansion of its existing plant in New Providence.
2. International Developments
The world economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, as the US economy showed signs of
rebounding from recent hurricanes and confronted escalating oil prices, which have increased
inflationary pressures. A significant contribution was provided by the Chinese economy, where the
expansion is at a record breaking pace, alongside the sustained recovery in the Japanese
economy. While global inflation remains contained for the most part, rising oil prices have resulted
in increased transportation and heating costs for consumers in many countries.
During the month of October, the US economy remained resilient in the face of widespread
Page 2
economic shocks stemming from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Preliminary estimates indicated that
GDP grew by 3.8% in the third quarter, compared to 3.3% in the previous period. In October,
economic growth was marked by a noted expansion in the services sector as indicated by a 13.0%
rise in the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index. Additionally, productivity levels
accelerated at a 4.1% annual rate, almost doubling that of the last three months, and
unemployment remained steady at 5.0%. Rising oil prices led to increased costs for businesses,
much of which have been passed on to consumers. Consumer retail spending rebounded slightly
from the decline recorded in the previous month. During October, the Federal Reserve continued
with its moves to increase interest rates at a ‘measured pace’ to prevent rising energy costs from
fuelling higher price levels. The Bank raised both the Federal Funds and Primary Credit rates by
25 basis points each to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively. A widening in the federal budget deficit is
forecasted as a result of post-hurricane reconstruction and relief costs. However, the anticipated
rebuilding following the hurricanes is expected to boost GDP growth and spur further economic
activity in the US economy.
Chinese output growth is poised to achieve a record pace of around 9.0% during the fourth quarter.
In October, the trade surplus grew to $9.66 billion from a revised $7.56 billion in September,
reflecting heightened US and European demand for Christmas stocks. In its recently released five
year plan, the government of China indicated its intention to focus on enhancing the ‘quality’ rather
than the ‘quantity’ of its economic growth, with a view to improving its technological methods and
adding value to overall production.
The ongoing recovery in the Japanese economy has been attributed to strong domestic private
sector demand, with future prospects hinging heavily on crude oil price developments, and the
performance of the US economy. Growth in the Euro-zone is forecasted at 1.1% for 2005 and
1.5% for 2006. The UK continues to experience reduced economic output growth, due to housing
prices and high energy costs, which have led to consumer confidence falling to its lowest levels in
18 months. For the final quarter of the year, the UK GDP growth rate is forecasted to moderate in
line with reduced expectations for service sector activity.
For the month of October, OPEC continued its daily output of 30.34 million barrels per day but
production is expected to decline to 30 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, reflecting lower
demand and supply expectations. The price of oil eased to $59.37 per barrel at the end of October
compared to $63.77 in the previous month and $66.93 in August, for a year-to-date percentage
price increase of approximately 21.4%. With respect to other commodities, the closing price for
gold fell by 0.9% to $465.18 per ounce, while the price of silver rose by 1.6% to $7.57 per ounce.
Equity indices moved generally lower during the month of October. In the US, the major indices,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, fell by 1.2% and 2.0%, respectively. The Euro
indices saw similar declines, with the FTSE 100 down by 2.9%, CAC 40 by 3.6% and the DAX by
2.3%. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 Index rose marginally by 0.2% at month end.
3. Domestic Monetary and Credit Trends
During the month of October, monetary and credit trends were marked by stronger growth in
Bahamian dollar credit, particularly mortgage lending, which outpaced the expansion in Bahamian
dollar deposits. Consequently, contractions were recorded for bank liquidity and external reserves.
Page 3
On a year-to-date basis, accretions to Bahamian dollar credit continued to exceed growth in
Bahamian dollar deposits. Subsequently, bank liquidity declined, while increased imports of goods
and services resulted in a decrease in external reserves. Exchange Control data showed that
outflows for oil imports more than doubled, while foreign currency outflows for non-oil imports rose
by 4.4% to $100.7 million.
October 2005 vs. 2004
For October 2005, excess reserves of the banking system narrowed by $48.1 million to $276.0
million, in contrast to growth of $48.2 million to $228.0 million in 2004. Banks’ excess liquid assets
also weakened by $43.9 million to $219.2 million, a switch from the $23.8 million build-up last year.
As outflows increased due to stronger domestic demand and given a falloff in foreign exchange
inflows, external reserves declined by $32.4 million, compared to last year’s reduction of $2.2
million, which was moderated due to reinsurance inflows through the banking system following the
active 2004 hurricane season. The Central Bank’s net foreign currency sales grew to $34.3 million
from $3.0 million in 2004, with net sales to commercial banks advancing to $7.8 million, a reversal
from a net purchase of $15.5 million in 2004. Meanwhile, net sales to the public sector firmed by
$8.0 million to $26.5 million. Commercial banks reported net foreign currency sales to customers
of approximately $5.0 million, a turnaround from net purchases of $25.4 million in 2004.
With intensified mortgage and consumer lending, accretions to Bahamian dollar credit expanded by
$92.5 million from a contraction of $37.9 million in the previous year. Private sector credit rose by
$54.0 million, three times higher than last year, with mortgages up by $8.5 million to $23.5 million.
Additionally, consumer credit firmed by $25.5 million compared to a small decline in the previous
year. Credit to government rebounded by $33.1 million, a switch from a net repayment of $59.1
million last year, which was associated with the Government Registered Stock issue in 2004.
Meanwhile, credit to rest of the public sector firmed marginally by $1.3 million to $5.4 million.
Domestic foreign currency credit widened by $9.3 million, reversing a decline of $5.0 million last
year. The hike was largely due to an increase in private sector credit by $15.9 million compared to
relatively unchanged levels in the previous year. Claims on the public corporations contracted
further by $6.5 million, 67.4% higher than in last year, while net credit to Government remained
stable compared to a $1.3 million reduction in 2004.
The Bahamian dollar deposit base strengthened by $57.4 million, in contrast to the $34.1 million
fall-off in 2004, when public corporations and private depositors invested in government bonds.
The gain in deposits during the month was mainly owed to the recovery in growth in demand and
fixed deposits, by $14.9 million and $48.5 million respectively, from reductions of $17.2 million and
$36.7 million in 2004. Conversely, savings deposits narrowed by $6.0 million, as opposed to an
upturn of $19.8 million in the year earlier period.
In interest rate developments, the weighted average deposit rate at banks firmed by 9 basis points
to 3.26%. The highest rate offered was 5.50% for fixed maturities of over 6-12 months and over 12
months. In contrast, the weighted average loan rate at banks softened 57 basis points to 10.13%.
Page 4
January – October 2005
For the first ten months of 2005, the excess reserves of the banking system contracted by $15.4
million, in contrast to a rise of $59.7 million in 2004. Excess liquid assets also weakened by $5.2
million, as opposed to gains of $89.3 million last year. Exchange control data indicated that
current account payments continued to increase, with the oil and non-oil import categories
expanding by 66.1% and 21.5%, respectively.
During the January to October period, the heightened demand for imported goods, accommodated
in part by the relaxation of credit restrictions and propelled by higher oil prices, resulted in a net
external reserve loss of $30.3 million. This compares to an advance of $130.4 million in 2004,
when the private sector had yet to adjust fully to the removal of the credit freeze. As a result, the
Central Bank recorded net foreign currency sales of $45.6 million, a turnaround from net purchases
of $115.2 million in 2004. Net foreign exchange purchases from banks eased by 73.8% to $61.9
million, while net sales to the public sector fell by 11.0% to $107.5 million. Moreover, commercial
banks reported a 70.9% contraction in net purchases from customers to $64.8 million.
During 2005, Bahamian dollar credit growth accelerated sharply by $423.9 million from $244.5
million in 2004, driven by increased private sector credit, amid the removal of the credit ceiling
during the third quarter of 2004. Accretions to private sector credit advanced nearly two-fold by
$389.4 million compared to an upturn of $200.4 million last year, reflecting expansions in both
consumer credit and mortgages. Net credit to Government rose by $48.6 million, a reduction of
$11.5 million from last year, while credit to the rest of the public sector contracted by $14.1 million
in line with the contraction in 2004.
Borrowing activity associated with the expansion in the tourism industry underpinned a $78.2
million hike in domestic foreign currency credit, reversing the $10.9 million credit reduction in the
previous year. Net claims on the private sector accelerated almost five times by $99.4 million,
however, there was a marginal fall-off in mortgages of $2.9 million, in contrast to a $2.4 million rise
last year. Net repayments by public corporations were higher by $12.5 million at $35.5 million, and
net claims on Government rose by $14.3 million, reversing the $8.1 million net repayment in 2004.
Accretions to the Bahamian dollar deposit base were $31.9 million lower at $306.5 million. This
outturn reflected reduced growth in demand and savings deposits, of $99.3 million and $24.3
million, respectively, which outpaced the higher expansion in fixed deposits of $91.7 million.
4. Outlook
Although somewhat tempered, the outlook for the domestic economy remains favourable for the
rest of 2005. Ongoing tourism investments and robust construction activity are still expected to
sustain growth in the economy, despite the deceleration of tourism output as a result of Hurricane
Wilma. This outlook is supported by more stable oil prices and the continued expansion of the US
economy.
Page 5
Recent Monetary and Credit Statistics
(B$ Millions)
Value
2004
OCTOBER
2005
Change
2004
2005
Change YTD
2004
2005
1.0 LIQUIDITY & FOREIGN ASSETS
1.1 Excess Reserves
1.2 Excess Liquid Assets
1.3 External Reserves
1.4 Bank’s Net Foreign Assets
1.5 Usable Reserves
228.03
226.35
612.53
-592.49
270.89
276.01
219.22
634.34
-587.98
284.74
48.17
23.81
-2.17
1.50
-14.45
-48.05
-43.87
-32.44
27.72
-15.51
59.66
89.31
130.43
-6.03
43.77
-15.38
-5.22
-30.31
1.77
-14.80
2.0 DOMESTIC CREDIT
2.1 Private Sector
a. B$ Credit
of which: Consumer Credit
Mortgages
b. F/C Credit
of which: Mortgages
2.2 Central Government (net)
a. B$ Loans & Securities
Less Deposits
b. F/C Loans & Securities
Less Deposits
2.3 Rest of Public Sector
a. B$ Credit
b. F/C Credit
2.4 Total Domestic Credit
a. B$ Domestic Credit
b. F/C Domestic Credit
4,292.05
3,900.26
1,454.20
1,591.88
391.79
13.07
560.57
680.80
116.97
0.00
3.26
329.91
102.94
226.97
5,182.52
4,567.03
615.49
4,813.65
4,338.51
1,608.36
1,853.71
475.14
8.89
615.58
719.89
112.61
10.52
2.23
293.98
101.37
192.61
5,723.20
5,047.16
676.04
17.28
17.09
-3.07
15.02
0.19
0.49
-60.36
-59.80
-0.73
0.00
1.29
0.22
4.08
-3.87
-42.87
-37.90
-4.96
69.93
54.03
25.49
23.48
15.90
0.40
32.95
30.35
-2.74
0.00
0.14
-1.11
5.37
-6.48
101.77
92.48
9.29
220.56
200.37
73.90
159.05
20.19
2.42
51.98
79.79
19.74
-8.01
0.06
-38.86
-15.89
-22.97
233.67
244.53
-10.86
488.72
389.36
127.89
217.01
99.37
-2.89
62.90
66.78
18.18
10.52
-3.77
-49.55
-14.09
-35.46
502.07
423.87
78.20
3.0 DEPOSIT BASE
3.1 Demand Deposits
a. Central Bank
b. Banks
3.2 Savings Deposits
3.3 Fixed Deposits
3.4 Total B$ Deposits
3.5 F/C Deposits of Residents
3.6 M2
3.7 External Reserves/M2 (%)
921.67
111.66
810.01
775.59
2,369.18
4,066.45
101.35
4,235.57
14.46
1,043.06
43.18
999.88
854.24
2,563.71
4,461.01
146.18
4,636.86
13.68
-17.19
-25.73
8.54
19.80
-36.73
-34.12
-7.34
-30.14
0.05
14.86
11.18
3.68
-5.96
48.52
57.42
1.19
58.73
-0.88
181.64
92.26
89.38
97.17
59.54
338.35
3.59
347.20
2.06
82.31
-39.20
121.52
72.86
151.28
306.46
60.14
300.86
-1.65
Value
2004
2005
Year to Date
2004
2005
Change
Month
YTD
4.0 FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS
4.1 Central Bank Net Purchase/(Sale)
a. Net Purchase/(Sale) from/to Banks
i. Sales to Banks
ii. Purchases from Banks
b. Net Purchase/(Sale) from/to Others
i. Sales to Others
ii. Purchases from Others
4.2 Banks Net Purchase/(Sale)
a. Sales to Customers
b. Purchases from Customers
4.3 B$ Position (change)
-3.02
15.45
33.79
49.24
-18.47
25.55
7.09
25.40
190.24
215.64
-9.26
-34.33
-7.79
55.81
48.02
-26.54
38.84
12.30
-4.95
268.16
263.21
-7.72
115.22
236.03
274.62
510.65
-120.81
223.61
102.80
222.87
1,977.10
2,199.97
-45.56
61.93
364.60
426.52
-107.49
280.56
173.07
64.83
2,388.35
2,453.18
-31.32
-23.24
22.03
-1.21
-8.08
13.29
5.21
-30.35
77.92
47.57
-160.79
-174.11
89.98
-84.13
13.32
56.95
70.27
-158.04
411.24
253.21
5.0 EXCHANGE CONTROL SALES
5.1 Current Items
of which Public Sector
a. Nonoil Imports
b. Oil Imports
c. Travel
d. Factor Income
e. Transfers
f. Other Current Items
5.2 Capital Items
of which Public Sector
5.3 Bank Remittances
194.54
28.06
96.44
19.66
18.29
7.02
5.15
47.99
7.93
1.84
0.00
247.69
39.89
100.70
45.78
15.82
16.88
7.01
61.49
7.29
3.99
8.20
1,936.47
235.45
946.06
182.82
172.17
100.81
48.68
485.93
122.53
35.61
73.79
2,463.59
305.62
1,149.11
303.74
201.04
159.56
75.34
574.80
136.31
42.20
88.30
53.15
11.83
4.26
26.12
-2.46
9.86
1.87
13.50
-0.64
2.15
8.20
527.12
70.16
203.05
120.92
28.87
58.75
26.66
88.87
13.78
6.59
14.52
Sources:Research Department W
eekly Brief Database and Bank
ing Brief for the ewek
s ending:OCTOBER 27, 2004 and NOV
EMBER 02, 2005
Exchange Control Sales figures are as at month end.
Notes:1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 YTD change reflects change of current month over previous year end;for 4.0 and 5.0 change is over corresponding period of previous year.
Components may not sum to totals due to round-off error.
Page 6
SELECTED MONEY AND CREDIT INDICATORS
(B$ Millions)
Excess Reserves
400
Excess Liquid Assets
300
350
200
300
100
250
0
200
150
Aug
Sep
2005
-100
Oct
Aug
Sep
2005
2005
2004
650
Oct
2005
2004
Central Govt. Credit (Net)
Rest of Public Sector Credit
360
340
600
320
550
500
300
Aug
Sep
2005
280
Oct
Aug
Sep
2005
2005
2004
2005
2004
Private Sector Credit
5000
Oct
M3
4800
4700
4800
4600
4600
4500
4400
4200
4400
Aug
Sep
2005
4300
Oct
Aug
Sep
2005
2005
2004
Oct
2005
2004
Changes in Money, Credit & Ext. Reserves
200
100
0
-100
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2004
Q2
Q3
2005
M3
Domestic Credit
External Reserves
Page 7
Selected International Statistics
A: Selected Macroeconomic Projections
(Annual % Change and % of labor force)
Bahamas
United States
Euro-Area
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Real GDP
2005
2006
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
1.2
1.8
0.8
1.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.9
3.2
Inflation Rate
2005
2006
n/a
n/a
3.1
2.8
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.7
-0.4
-0.1
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.5
Unemployment
2005
2006
n/a
n/a
5.2
5.2
8.7
8.4
9.5
9.3
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.8
6.8
6.7
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook ,September 2005
B: Official Interest Rates - Selected Countries (%)
With effect
CBOB
Bank
ECB (EU)
Refinancing
from
Rate
Rate
January 2004
February 2004
March 2004
April 2004
May 2004
June 2004
July 2004
August 2004
September 2004
October 2004
November 2004
December 2004
January 2005
February 2005
March 2005
April 2005
May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
Federal Reserve (US)
Primary
Target
Credit
Rate
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.25
2.25
2.50
2.75
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.75
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.25
4.50
4.75
4.75
Funds
Rate
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.50
1.75
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.25
2.50
2.75
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Bank of
England
Repo Rate
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.50
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.50
4.50
4.50
Page 8
Selected International Statistics
C. Selected Currencies
(Per United States Dollars)
Currency
Oct-04
Euro
0.7814
Yen
105.81
Pound
0.5443
Canadian $
1.2176
Swiss Franc
1.1943
Source: Bloomberg
Sept-05
Oct-05
Mthly %
Change
YTD %
Change
12-Mth%
Change
0.8320
0.8334
0.22
8.66
6.65
113.51
116.4
2.55
12.25
10.01
0.5668
0.565
-0.32
6.38
3.80
1.1630
1.1822
1.65
-4.65
-2.91
1.2939
1.2885
-0.42
8.38
7.89
D. Selected Commodity Prices ($)
Commodity
Gold / Ounce
Oct 2004
Sept 2005
Oct 2005
428.55
469.30
465.18
-0.88
7.29
7.45
7.57
1.61
12.65
48.92
63.77
59.37
-6.90
30.11
Silver / Ounce
Oil / Barrel
Mthly % YTD %
Change Change
10.08
Source: Bloomberg
E. Equity Market Valuations – October 2005 (%chg)
1 month
3 month
YTD
12-month
BISX
2.55
3.29
22.65
24.50
DJIA
-1.22
-0.40
-0.47
4.11
S&P 500
-1.98
-0.95
2.03
7.04
FTSE 100
-2.93
0.39
9.58
14.99
CAC 40
-3.56
0.84
13.36
19.68
DAX
-2.28
2.06
15.85
24.46
Nikkei
225
0.24
9.61
19.49
26.32
Sources: Bloomberg and BISX
F: Short Term Deposit Rates in Selected Currencies (%)
o/n
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
9 Month
1 year
USD
GBP
EUR
3.98
4.35
2.08
4.03
4.47
2.06
4.23
4.48
2.17
4.41
4.49
2.29
4.64
4.51
2.40
4.70
4.54
2.58
Source: Bloomberg, as at October 31,2005
Page 9
Page 10
103.25
76.99
71.32
0.00
45.06
-67.73
7.38
0.00
75.10
A. Net Credit to Gov’t( i + ii + iii - iv)
i) Advances
ii) Registered Stock
iii) Treasury Bills
iv) Deposits
B. Rest of Public Sector (Net) (i + ii - iii)
i) BDB Loans
ii) BMC Bonds
iii) Deposits
634.52
242.99
391.54
-95.40
676.62
242.29
434.33
-94.23
0.00
-40.58
7.38
0.00
47.96
120.97
76.99
76.26
0.00
32.28
-13.84
690.46
Sep. 07
* Includes capital, provisions and surplus account, fixed and other assets, and other demand liabilities of Bank
III. Monetary Base
A. Currency in Circulation
B. Bank Balances with CBOB
D. Other Items (Net)*
0.00
-59.88
II. Net Domestic Assets (A + B + C + D)
C. Loans to/Deposits with Banks
694.40
I. External Resrves
Aug. 31
700.12
231.69
468.43
-94.50
0.00
-36.37
7.38
0.00
43.75
134.15
76.99
76.23
0.00
19.07
3.28
696.84
Sep. 14
696.58
230.18
466.40
-94.84
0.00
-28.75
7.38
0.00
36.13
134.79
76.99
76.19
0.00
18.38
11.19
685.39
Sep. 21
681.59
236.63
444.96
-94.70
0.00
-24.63
7.38
0.00
32.01
134.15
76.99
76.16
0.00
19.00
14.82
666.78
Sep. 28
VALUE
676.33
243.77
432.56
-94.03
0.00
-25.71
7.38
0.00
33.08
130.79
76.99
75.84
0.00
22.04
11.05
665.28
Oct. 05
657.59
240.41
417.17
-95.85
0.00
-25.45
7.38
0.00
32.83
134.44
76.99
75.68
0.00
18.23
13.13
644.45
Oct. 12
665.88
237.46
428.42
-95.83
0.00
-22.05
7.38
0.00
29.43
134.68
76.99
75.67
0.00
17.97
16.80
649.08
Oct. 19
(B$ Millions)
669.24
237.91
431.33
-96.75
0.00
-25.67
7.30
0.00
32.97
140.93
76.99
75.53
0.00
11.59
18.51
650.72
-49.61
6.12
-55.73
-1.55
0.00
-10.96
0.00
0.00
10.96
-26.82
0.00
-0.14
0.00
26.68
-39.33
-10.29
Oct. 26 Aug. 31
42.10
-0.69
42.79
1.17
0.00
27.14
0.00
0.00
-27.14
17.73
0.00
4.94
0.00
-12.79
46.04
-3.94
Sep. 07
SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE CENTRAL BANK
23.50
-10.60
34.10
-0.27
0.00
4.21
0.00
0.00
-4.21
13.17
0.00
-0.04
0.00
-13.21
17.12
6.38
Sep. 14
-3.54
-1.51
-2.03
-0.35
0.00
7.62
0.00
0.00
-7.62
0.65
0.00
-0.04
0.00
-0.68
7.91
-11.45
Sep. 21
-14.99
6.45
-21.44
0.14
0.00
4.12
0.00
0.00
-4.12
-0.65
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.62
3.62
-18.61
Sep. 28
CHANGE
-5.26
7.14
-12.40
0.67
0.00
-1.08
0.00
0.00
1.08
-3.36
0.00
-0.32
0.00
3.04
-3.77
-1.50
Oct. 05
-18.74
-3.36
-15.38
-1.83
0.00
0.26
0.00
0.00
-0.26
3.65
0.00
-0.16
0.00
-3.81
2.08
-20.83
Oct. 12
8.30
-2.95
11.25
0.03
0.00
3.40
0.00
0.00
-3.40
0.25
0.00
-0.01
0.00
-0.25
3.67
4.63
Oct. 19
3.35
0.45
2.90
-0.92
0.00
-3.62
-0.08
0.00
3.55
6.25
0.00
-0.13
0.00
-6.39
1.71
1.64
Oct. 26
Page 11
-12.0
-127.59%
5. Deficit/Surplus*
% change
397.2
4.55%
107.6
4.47%
176.9
12.31%
13. Tourist arrivals (000's)
% change; over previous year
14. Air arrivals (000's)
% change; over previous year
15. Occupied Room Nights
% change; over previous year
170.9
-3.39%
103.9
-3.44%
414.2
4.28%
116.3
1.10%
2005
558.8
-0.66%
AUG
6.0
9.09%
91.6
8.15%
37.4
9.04%
94.7
4.53%
2005/2006
FEB
FEB
207.9
17.03%
135.8
12.79%
429.0
11.63%
114.5
0.13%
2004
590.5
-0.53%
300.35
1.3
-22.60%
1,670.9
1.41%
0.0
0.00%
290.2
-0.44%
1,961.1
1.13%
2004
Annual/Y-T-D Retail Price data are averages.
p - provisional
SEP
MAR
MAR
18.6
-3.48%
255.2
34.96%
168.6
34.24%
566.6
34.81%
114.5
0.00%
2004
589.7
-0.14%
299.92
20.4
1481.30%
1,650.9
-1.20%
0.0
0.00%
289.8
-0.13%
1,940.7
-1.04%
2004
-28.4
311.36%
5.1
34.21%
81.9
5.00%
24.3
-23.58%
60.5
-23.13%
2004/2005
** Debt figures pertain to central government only unless otherwise indicated
189.1
-9.04%
125.6
-7.51%
420.3
-2.03%
116.4
0.10%
2005
559.1
-5.32%
269.37
10.1
#DIV/0!
1,813.3
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
289.8
-0.03%
2,103.1
0.00%
2005
-6.9
-4.0
-42.54% -1433.33%
3.8
137.50%
78.0
-3.70%
31.8
30.86%
78.7
6.64%
2004/2005
* Includes Net Lending to Public Corporations
114.4
-0.57%
12. Retail Price Index
% change
16. Res. Mortgage Commitments-New Const.
% change; over previous qtr.
2004
Real Sector Indicators
JAN
593.7
-0.88%
268.99
11.Total Public Sector F/C Debt
0.0
#DIV/0!
1.7
-91.02%
302.22
1,813.3
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
10. Total Amortization
% change
0.0
0.00%
8. Internal F/C Debt
% change
289.8
0.00%
1,647.6
0.00%
291.5
-0.57%
7. External Debt
% change
2,103.1
0.00%
2005
0.3
-101.08%
5.5
-83.02%
84.7
-19.71%
34.3
-29.13%
90.6
-30.73%
2005/2006
9. Bahamian Dollar Debt
% change
1,939.1
-0.09%
6. Total Debt
% change
JAN
1.6
-87.60%
4. Capital Expenditure
% change
2004
81.0
19.12%
3. Recurrent Expenditure
% change
DebtP **
24.3
-56.53%
2. Import Duties
% change
JUL
73.8
-42.16%
2004/2005
1. Government Revenue & Grants
% change
Fiscal OperationsP
42.5
43.52%
241.0
-5.56%
165.2
-2.02%
516.9
-8.77%
116.5
0.09%
2005
558.4
-5.32%
269.00
10.4
2.87%
1,812.3
-0.05%
0.0
0.00%
289.4
-0.13%
2,101.7
-0.06%
2005
-16.7
317.50%
14.9
148.33%
84.6
-7.64%
32.7
-12.57%
86.6
-8.55%
2005/2006
OCT
APR
APR
224.6
-6.80%
161.5
-2.2%
547.0
5.8%
114.6
0.1%
2004
589.2
-0.10%
297.82
1.0
-95.32%
1,650.9
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
291.3
0.52%
1,942.2
0.08%
2004
-23.4
-17.50%
7.1
39.22%
81.2
-0.85%
32.9
35.39%
67.6
11.74%
2003/2004
211.8
-5.70%
145.4
-10.0%
493.3
-9.8%
117.2
0.7%
2005
557.4
-0.18%
268.99
1.0
-90.35%
1,852.3
2.21%
0.0
0.00%
288.4
-0.35%
2,140.7
1.86%
2005
-17.1
2.66%
3.7
-75.17%
85.3
0.83%
31.4
-3.98%
74.5
-13.97%
2004/2005
NOV
MAY
MAY
186.8
-11.8%
132.6
-8.8%
428.9
-13.1%
114.7
0.1%
2004
587.2
-0.32%
294.79
0.0
-100.00%
1,650.9
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
292.4
0.38%
1,943.3
0.06%
2004
-11.5
-50.85%
3.8
-46.48%
77.9
-4.06%
29.2
-11.25%
72.5
7.25%
2003/2004
200.1
7.1%
136.6
3.0%
397.7
-7.3%
117.6
0.3%
2005
559.6
0.40%
270.10
10.0
899.59%
1,842.3
-0.54%
0.0
0.00%
289.5
0.39%
2,131.8
-0.42%
2005
1.2
-107.04%
5.7
54.05%
82.9
-2.81%
28.7
-8.60%
92.3
23.89%
2004/2005
DEC
26.4
363.16%
76.3
-7.96%
18.1
-36.93%
85.4
-7.48%
2004/2005
JAN
8.0
56.86%
84.9
5.07%
13.4
-57.59%
69.2
-24.04%
2003/2004
JUN
JUN
17.8
-4.6%
203.0
1.4%
141.3
3.4%
431.1
8.4%
114.7
0.0%
2004
577.4
-1.68%
285.05
0.1
#DIV/0!
1,650.9
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
292.3
-0.04%
1,943.2
-0.01%
2004
51.5
21.1%
216.9
6.8%
149.6
9.5%
399.1
0.4%
117.6
0.0%
2005
549.4
-1.82%
260.03
25.1
151.30%
1,883.7
2.25%
0.0
0.00%
289.4
-0.05%
2,173.1
1.93%
2005
JUL
JUL
213.0
-1.8%
161.5
8.0%
505.4
26.6%
114.8
0.1%
2004
573.8
-0.61%
284.08
10.2
8422.85%
1,743.3
5.60%
0.0
0.00%
289.8
-0.88%
2,033.1
4.62%
2004
1.3
-20.6
-27.8
-111.30% -1808.20% -2238.46%
5.1
34.21%
80.8
3.72%
31.6
8.22%
91.1
25.66%
2003/2004
(% change represents current month from previous month)
(B$ MILLIONS)
-100.0%
164.3
1.7%
466.7
-7.7%
117.8
0.2%
2005
543.4
-1.08%
254.07
0.0
-100.00%
1,883.7
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
289.4
0.00%
2,173.1
0.00%
2005
-12.8
-37.97%
3.3
-87.50%
90.6
18.74%
64.7
257.46%
87.1
1.99%
2004/2005
FEB
AUG
1,743.3
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
289.8
0.00%
2,033.1
0.00%
2004
-11.5
-58.63%
6.0
-25.00%
74.8
-11.90%
26.9
100.75%
71.6
3.47%
2003/2004
AUG
194.5
#DIV/0!
124.4
-24.3%
438.3
-6.1%
114.6
-0.2%
2004
573.8
0.00%
284.06
0.0
-100.00%
FISCAL/REAL SECTOR INDICATORS
194.5
0.0%
121.4
-2.4%
374.6
-14.5%
118.2
0.3%
2005
542.3
-0.22%
252.96
0.1
#DIV/0!
1,883.7
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
289.3
-0.03%
2,173.0
0.00%
2005
-23.5
83.48%
7.4
124.24%
89.1
-1.66%
30.8
-52.40%
75.6
-13.20%
2004/2005
MAR
SEP
SEP
43.3
143.7%
109.8
-43.5%
32.1
-73.6%
150.3
-59.9%
114.8
0.2%
2004
567.8
-1.04%
278.67
5.6
#DIV/0!
1,738.3
-0.29%
0.0
0.00%
289.2
-0.21%
2,027.4
-0.28%
2004
15.1
-231.30%
5.2
-13.33%
89.7
19.92%
31.0
15.24%
112.5
57.12%
2003/2004
49.8
-3.3%
109.8
0.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
117.6
-0.5%
2005
536.5
-1.06%
248.08
0.8
978.46%
1,958.7
3.98%
0.0
0.00%
288.4
-0.29%
2,247.1
3.41%
2005
3.0
-112.88%
4.5
-39.19%
81.0
-9.09%
32.9
6.82%
91.7
21.30%
2004/2005
APR
OCT
OCT
-100.0%
75.6
#DIV/0!
326.9
#DIV/0!
115.0
0.2%
2004
568.8
0.17%
279.67
1.0
-82.82%
1,838.3
5.75%
0.0
0.00%
289.1
-0.02%
2,127.4
4.93%
2004
-17.7
-217.22%
7.0
34.62%
83.5
-6.91%
32.3
4.19%
75.0
-33.33%
2003/2004
#DIV/0!
-100.0%
-100.0%
117.7
0.1%
2005
534.8
-0.32%
247.39
1.0
18.19%
1,958.7
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
287.4
-0.35%
2,246.1
-0.04%
2005
-8.9
-393.32%
7.6
68.89%
94.9
17.16%
38.1
15.81%
98.4
7.31%
2004/2005
MAY
NOV
NOV
#DIV/0!
92.7
#DIV/0!
376.3
#DIV/0!
115.6
0.5%
2004
289.1
-49.17%
-
0.0
-100.00%
1,838.3
0.00%
0.0
0.00%
289.1
0.00%
2,127.4
0.00%
2004
9.2
-151.98%
5.7
-18.57%
72.6
-13.05%
33.2
2.79%
90.6
20.80%
2003/2004
#DIV/0!
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
2005
289.8
-45.81%
-
0.0
#DIV/0!
1,813.3
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.00%
289.8
#DIV/0!
2,103.1
#DIV/0!
2005
-11.4
28.44%
8.0
5.26%
86.5
-8.85%
35.0
-8.14%
92.6
-5.89%
2004/2005
JUN
DEC
DEC
-100.0%
#DIV/0!
116.3
#DIV/0!
406.7
#DIV/0!
115.0
-0.5%
2004
562.5
94.57%
272.67
25.1
1,813.3
-1.36%
0.0
0.00%
289.8
0.25%
2,103.1
-1.14%
2004
-80.4
-973.91%
25
338.60%
126.0
73.55%
82.1
147.29%
76.1
-16.00%
2003/2004
-100.0%
#DIV/0!
-100.0%
-100.0%
#DIV/0!
2005
289.8
0.00%
-
0.0
#DIV/0!
1,813.3
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.00%
289.8
#DIV/0!
2,103.1
#DIV/0!
2005
-27.7
143.02%
32.4
305.00%
98.1
13.41%
48.4
38.29%
130.8
41.25%
2004/2005
2005/2006
YEAR TO DATE
2004/2005
-20.4
-56.83%
26.4
151.43%
260.9
8.30%
104.4
29.85%
271.9
27.65%
79.7
313.02%
1254.4
11.80%
1133.3
7.73%
3743.5
16.85%
114.7
0.80%
2005
143.8
385.47%
1229.8
-1.96%
1112.0
-1.88%
3482.8
-6.96%
117.3
2.29%
(Over previous year)
2004
YEAR TO DATE
-47.3
141.15%
10.5
30.26%
240.9
8.22%
80.4
-16.81%
213.0
-2.07%
(Over previous year)