Download Mukand S. Babel Workshop on Water and Green Growth

Workshop on Water and Green Growth
23-25 February 2015, UNCC, Bangkok, Thailand
Mukand S. Babel
Professor, Water Engineering and Management (WEM)
Director, CoE for Sustainable Development in the Context of Climate Change (SDCC)
Regional Forum on Climate Change (RFCC)
Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Societies:
Bridging Science, Practice and Policy
Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Conference Center, Thailand
July 1–3, 2015
Objectives:
• Provide a platform for discussions to ease the translation of science into practice and
policy
• Offer ASEAN negotiators a venue to build positions of increased ambition prior to the
COP21
Core contents: Presentations on
• Contemporary scientific research on climate change related topics
• On-the-ground evidence (case studies) of climate change mitigation and adaptation
• Current and proposed national (or regional and international) policy initiatives
Special content:
• Science and climate change-call for research proposals
• COP21 media training
• ASEAN scholars Program
• Asian Working Group on Climate Change round-table discussions (closed)
• Side events (e.g. LoCARNet)
Regional Forum on Climate Change (RFCC)
Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Societies:
Bridging Science, Practice and Policy
Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Conference Center, Thailand
July 1–3, 2015
Keynote speakers:
José Ramos-Horta
Nicolas Hulot (to be confirmed)
Saleemul Huq
Nobel Laureate, 1996
Climate Adviser to French President
Burtoni Award Winner, 2007
Important dates:
• Deadline for receiving abstracts: 15 April 2015
• Deadline for applications for ASEAN Scholars Program: 15 March 2015
More information: Website: www.rfcc2015.ait.asia Email: [email protected]
OUTLINES
Sustainability in Water and Agriculture
 Facts and Figures
 Challenges
 Approaches for Sustainability in Water
and Agriculture






(2)
Water management practices
Water footprint
Agriculture practices
Food production chain
Water governance
Capacity building
 Coping with climate change
Facts and Figures …
Population Growth
Between 1900 and 2000, the population grew by a factor of four,
but freshwater withdrawal grew by a factor of nine
… if current trends continue, by 2030 two-thirds of the world’s
population will live in areas of high water stress
(3)
Facts and Figures…
Poverty and share of agriculture in economy and employment
Contribution of
Agriculture to GDP
(%)
Bangladesh
Cambodia
China
India
Philippines
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
1990
30
27
29
22
39
26
2010
19
36
10
18
12
21
13
Poverty based on
$1.25 PPP
(%)
1990
66.7(1989)
44.5(1994)
60.2
53.6(1988)
30.5(1988)
63.7(1993)
15(1991)
2010
43.3
18.6(2009)
11.8(2009)
18.4(2009)
18.9(2008)
4.1
Agricultural
Employment
(% of total)
1990
65
78(1998)
60
61(1994)
45
70(1996)
48
2010
48(2005)
54
37
51
33
48
33
PPP = purchasing power parity
(4)
• Decreasing trend of contribution of
agriculture to GDP in Asian Countries
• Two faces of Asia
• Progress and prosperity
• Continued poverty
(FAO, 2014)
Facts and Figures…
Undernourishment
 About 1 in 9 of
the world’s
population (805
million people)
were
chronically
undernourished
in 2012–14
 Though 42% reduction in the developing regions is
observed between 1990–92 and 2012–14, still about 1 in 8
people of the overall population, remain chronically
undernourished
(5)
(FAO, 2014)
Facts and Figures…
Dietary transformation in Asia (kg/capita/year)
East Asia
Southeast Asia
2009
South Asia
2000
111.8
115.6
193.5
190.8Stagnant
106.3
109.6
63.8
70.2
Wheat
20
16.3
63
64.6
70
44.3
Fruit (excluding wine)
73.3
57.6
49.8
38.3in East Asia
Consumption of horticultural
products
297.4
227.1
between
1980 and 2009
Vegetables rose almost fivefold
56
49.2
67.7
59.3
Rice
1990
1980
121
183.1
116.1
73.7
9.3
53.2
20.9
49.4
30.7
106.9
36.6
50.5
116
189.3
100
56.5
11.1
53.5
13.1
53.6
27.8
63.4
34.5
44.1
 Continued growth, urbanization and commercialization are having profound
impacts on both food consumption and production patterns in Asia
(6)
Source: FAOSTAT. http://faostat.fao.org/
Facts and Figures…
Dietary transformation in Asia (kg/capita/year)
East Asia
Southeast Asia
2009
Poultry
Meat
Fish
2000
South Asia
1990
12.8
10.6
10.4
6.9
2.8 of meat and 1.6
Intake
poultry is rising
56.4
47.8
26.4
18.1
7
5.7
33.5
28.3
31.6
24.2
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.3
1
26.8
13.4
5.7
18
19.3
4.1
1980
2.5
2.9
0.5
16.2
9.8
4.8
12.6
16.3
3.5
Weaker dietary transformation in South Asia may be linked to the depth of
poverty in the region
(7)
Source: FAOSTAT. http://faostat.fao.org/.
Facts and Figures…
Changes in irrigated area in Asia in 1961-2009 against potential
 Irrigation development in East Asia compares well with its potential, whereas it
lags behind in both South and Southeast Asia.
 Changing socio-economic priorities, high development costs, land acquisition
and resettlement issues, and environmental limitations limit the scope for further
expansion of irrigated areas
(8)
FAO, 2014 http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat
Challenges
Global water stress
International rivers and some facts
Continent Rivers
Africa
61
Asia
54
Europe
71
N America
39
S America
Total
38
263
Stefano et al. (2010)
(9)
Percentage
within
International
basins
No. of
countries
90-100
39
80-90
11
70-80
14
60-70
11
50-60
17
40-50
10
30-40
10
20-30
13
10-20
9
0.01-10
11
Frontier Economics (2012)
• Home to more than 40% of the
world’s population
• Over 90% population lives in
countries that share basins
• Nearly one half of the earth’s
land surface
• 60% of the global freshwater
flow; remaining from groundwater
• International river- aquifer
interaction
• Top 10 international basins
contribute 10% of world’s GDP in
2010; 25% of world’s GDP in
2050
• 7 out these 10 basins will face
water scarcity by 2050
Challenges…
Growing Population
 Expected increase of
Global population
from 7 billion in 2011
to 8.3 billion in 2030,
Estimated Change in Population between 2010 and 2050
(millions)
 To feed this growing
population, food
production need to
be doubled with the
next 40 years
 Sufficient food and
water to be supplied
as a basic need to
alleviate poverty and
improve livelihood of
the poor
(10
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean
(ADB, 2013)
Challenges…
Expected trends in food preferences
Increased food demand and changing diets: driven by rising incomes and other
shifts, changing diets will increase demand for resource-intensive products
such as meat
Meat consumption more than doubles in East Asia by 2050
Global demand for meat will double from 229 million tons in 19992001 to 465 million tons in 2050.
(11)
(IWMI, 2007)
Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply1
and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
6,900
2%
900
CAGR
1,500
Municipal&
Domestic
Industry
4,500
600
800
4,500
Agriculture
3,100
Agriculture demand:-40%
India
2,800
Sub-Saharan Africa
China
1,195 B m3
820 B m3
420 B m3 4,200
100
700
Relevant supply quan tity is
much lower that the
absolute renewable water
availabil ity in nature
Existing
2030
Basins with
2
3
withdrawals withdrawals deficits
Basins with
surplus
1 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure
investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gaiins
between 2005-2030
3,500
Surface water
Existing
accessible,
reliable,
sustainable
supply 1
SOURCE: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER
base case
(12)
Groundwater
Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply1
and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
6,900
2%
900
CAGR
-40%
1,500
Municipal&
Domestic
Industry
4,500
600
800
100
4,500
Agriculture
3,100
2,800
Relevant supply quan tity is
much lower that the
absolute renewable water
availabil ity in nature
Existing
2030
Basins with
2
3
withdrawals withdrawals deficits
Basins with
surplus
1. Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and
infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2. Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3. Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no
water productivity gains between 2005-2030
(13)
4,200
700
Groundwater
3,500
Surface water
Existing
accessible,
reliable,
sustainable
supply 1
Source: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case
Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply1
and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains
Billion m3, 154 basins/regions
6,900
2%
900
CAGR
-40%
1,500
Municipal&
Domestic
Industry
4,500
600
800
100
4,500
Agriculture
3,100
2,800
Relevant supply quan tity is
much lower that the
absolute renewable water
availabil ity in nature
Existing
2030
Basins with
withdrawals2 withdrawals3 deficits
Basins with
surplus
1. Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and
infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2. Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI
3. Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no
water productivity gaiins between 2005-2030
(14)
4,200
700
Groundwater
3,500
Surface water
Existing
accessible,
reliable,
sustainable
supply 1
Source: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case
Challenges…
Business-as-usual approaches will not meet demand
for raw water
Billion m3
Portion of gap
Percent
8,000
Demand with no productivity
improvements
7,000
Historical improvements
in water productivity 1
20%
Remaining gap
60%
Increase in supply2 under
business-as-usual
20%
6,000
5,000
3,000
Today 2
2030
Existing accessible,
reliable supply3
If these trends are
insufficient to close
the gap:
• Depletion of fossil
reserves
• Water for the
environment is drained
• Demand will go unmet
Climate Change will exacerbate the problem
(15)
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group - Global Supply and Demand model; IFPRI; FAOSTAT
Challenges…
Trends in agricultural water withdrawals
(16)
(FAO, 2014)
Challenges…
Fuel crops vs. food crops
(17)
Challenges…
Exacerbation by climate change
Climate change will affect all facets of society and the environment, with strong
implications for water and agriculture now and in the future
(18)
Challenges…
Exacerbation by climate change
(19)
(ADB, 2009)
Challenges…
Climate Change: Local Insights
Impact on runoff (% change)
Basin, Country
Baseline
A2
B2
(m3/s)
Early
Mid
Late
Early
Mid
Late
Nam Ou, Laos
543.2
0.04
0.21
9.23
4.26
0.55
5.95
Bagmati, Nepal
127.4
-2.1
1.7
9.3
6.4
6.9
11.4
Koshi, Nepal
1281.1
4.3
6.4
19.8
3.8
9.2
9.9
Jhelum, Pakistan
846.6
30.9
26.5
34.3
30.5
25.6
36.5
*For Koshi results are presented for B1 scenario instead of B2
(20)
Challenges…
Climate Change: Local Insights
Monthly average
flow (m3/s)
Impact on river flow in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Babel et al. (2013) TAAC
1980s A2
2020s A2
2050s A2
2080s A2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Monthly average
flow (m3/s)
500
400
1980s B2
2020s B2
2050s B2
2080s B2
300
200
100
0
Jan
(21)
Feb
Mar
Increase in flow is expected to be higher during May-Sept.
Challenges…
Climate change: Local insights
Irrigation water demand in Bagmati basin, Nepal (Change in %)
Physiographic
Baseline
region
Rice
B2
MCM
Early
Mid
Late
Early
Mid
Late
High Hills
79.8
0.5
6.3
2.4
-9.0
-4.9
-7.4
Middle Hills
83.6
-4.1
1.8
-4.0
-8.6
-2.2
-9.0
Terai
88.2
28.6
23.9
26.9
26.9
23.2
27.4
11.7
-81.4
-91.3
-90.1
-82
-90.7
-90.7
Middle Hills
8.0
-28.6
-28.6
-24.2
-29.2
-28.6
-24.2
Terai
16.1
4.4
38.5
1.3
5.6
37.3
3.1
Wheat High Hills
(22)
A2
Source: Shrestha et al. (2013) J .Wat. Clim. Change
Challenges…
Climate change: Local insights
Impact on crop yield (Change in %)
Basin, Country
Baseline
A2
B2
kg/ha
Early
Mid
Late
Early
Mid
Late
Mun, Thailand
2,732
-11.2
-19.5
-32.1
-
-
-
Chi, Thailand
2,807
-25.2
-32.9
-32.3
-
-
-
Sikkim, India
3,290
-21.1
-32.2
-44.2
-15.9
-26.8
-37.1
Uganda
(March-May)
3,010
-9.6
-16.4
-43.3
-10.5
-14.5
-28.4
Uganda
(Sept-Nov)
3,010
8.1
10.2
9.6
8.6
12.1
10.2
Rice
Maize
 Yield is expected to decrease in future periods in Thailand and India
 In Uganda, during Sept-Nov season Maize yield is projected to increase
(23)
Challenges…
Summary
 The growing population to be supplied with sufficient food and
water as a basic need to alleviate poverty and improve livelihood
of the poor. (increasing crop per drop)
 Irrigated agriculture received large financial investments and
subsidies not likely to be repeated in forthcoming decades. (new
irrigation financial model)
 Water diversion to irrigated agriculture will be under increasing
stress and face competition with demanded shares claimed by
other powerful water users. (increasing water productivity)
 Necessity to reserve water to sustain the environment is
recognized and with a priority factor for basin water
management. (integrated water resources management)
 Addressing climate change to avoid its adverse impacts on water
and agriculture. (adaptation and mitigation)
(24)
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Approaches for green economy







(25)
Water management practices
Water footprint
Agriculture practices
Food production chain
Water governance
Capacity building
Coping with climate change
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Water management practices
Improvement of irrigation efficiency and small
scale irrigation technologies (drip irrigation)
1
2
 Increase
the productivity
of water
Increase
water productivity
in agriculture
3
 A 35% increase in water productivity could reduce
additional crop water consumption from 80% to 20%
for volumes
ofsystems
water in the
Account
Upgrade
rain-fed
— food
a littlesupply
water chain
can go a
long way
4
 Small Scale Irrigation
Shift
focusand
from
supply-side
to demand-side
 in
Private
informal
irrigation
is important inapproaches
terms of
both food production and food security
5
6
(26)
 Adapt yesterday’s irrigation to tomorrow’s needs
Efficient collection of runoff and soil-based storage of moisture
 Modernization
by land
management practices
Adoption of new filtration technologies (such as nano-technology) to
reuse grey-water for agriculture.
(Earthscan, 2007)
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Water management practices
Improvement of irrigation efficiency and small scale
irrigation technologies (drip irrigation)
1
Increase water productivity in agriculture
2
3
• Improvement with respect to evapotranspiration
Account for volumes of water in the food supply chain
• Improving the productivity of water deliveries
• Increasing the productivity of livestock
4
Shift in
from productivity
supply-side to
• focus
Increasing
indemand-side
fisheries andapproaches
aquaculture
5
6
(27)
Applying of
integrated
approaches
increasing
the
Efficient• collection
runoff and
soil-based to
storage
of moisture
value per unit
of water
by land management
practices
• Adopting an integrated basin perspective for
Adoption of newunderstanding
filtration technologies
(such as nano-technology)
to
water productivity
tradeoffs
reuse grey-water for agriculture.
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Water management practices
Improvement of irrigation efficiency and small scale
irrigation technologies (drip irrigation)
1
2
Increase water productivity in agriculture
3
4
5
6
(28)
Account for volumes of water in the food supply chain
Shift in focus from supply-side to demand-side
approaches
Efficient collection of runoff and soil-based storage of
moisture by land management practices
Adoption of new filtration technologies (such as
nanotechnology) to reuse grey-water for agriculture
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Reduction in Water Footprint
Volume of Rainwater
Evaporated
Decrease green Water
Footprint (WF) by
increasing green Water
Productivity (WP) in
both rain-fed and
irrigated agriculture
o Closing yield gap
o In-situ soil and water
management
techniques
Increase total production
from rain-fed agriculture
(29)
Volume of Surface or
Groundwater Evaporated
Decrease blue WF by
increasing blue WP in irrigated
agriculture
o Increasing irrigation efficiency
o Appropriate timing and
quantification of water delivery
o Replacing original crop choice
with other best crop fitting
climate conditions
Volume of Polluted Water
Reduced use of
chemical fertilizers
and pesticides;
more effective
application.
Grey WF is zero for
organic farming
o Economic Instruments for
agricultural blue water demand
management including
appropriate pricing
Decrease global blue WF
(Vanham and Bidoglio, 2013)
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Agricultural practices
 Agro-ecosystem approach
 Efficiency of smallholders: push (access to technology) and pull
mechanisms (access to markets)
 Up-scaling of successful local solutions (from small-holders).
 Promotion of urban agriculture, since it has the advantage of
reducing the transmission chain between soil and mouth.
 Cultivation of local plants having potential to capture benefits
from erratic rainfall
(30)
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Food production chain
 Efficiency improvements throughout the value food chain
 Food loss reduction
 Attention to the water-energy-food-climate nexus.
 Recognize potential tradeoffs between land and water use,
GHG emission, biodiversity etc.
(31)
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Water governance
 A dialogue between water managers, agricultural planners and
stakeholders including private sector is needed to identify and
properly implement solutions.
 The ecosystem approach to water management
 A holistic water governance framework is required whereby
water is managed across sectors, with appropriate institutions
that have the authority to take this holistic approach.
(32)
Sustainability: Water and Agriculture
Capacity building
• Consumer education and public awareness on water efficiency
and water quality concepts
• Change consumer behavior to build a green society.
• Learning and knowledge-sharing on management practices such
as conservation agriculture, nutrient management, integrated pest
management, groundwater management and irrigation
scheduling.
• Involvement of local people in planning agricultural water
management programs
(33)
Coping with Climate Change
Strategies
Investments
• On-farm water storage:
water harvesting
• Groundwater
development
• Modernization of
irrigation infrastructure
• Breeding for resistance
to droughts and floods
• Dam construction/
enhancement
(34)
Land, water and crop
management
Policies, institutions
and capacity building
• Changing cropping
pattern and
diversification
• Climate proofing of I&D
infrastructure
• Adapting cropping
calendar
• Re-allocation of water
(between or within
sectors)
• Alternate wet and dry
rice production system
• Strengthening
land/water right access
• Irrigation scheme
operation improvement
• Crop insurances
• Integrated water
resources management
• Improved weather
forecasting capacity
Climate-Smart Agriculture
(FAO, 2013)
[email protected]