Download Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data.

Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using
International Data.
Jim West
International Study Tour– Black Mountain – September 2013
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES
Disclaimer and request
Out of material and energy flows accounting, and emissions
accounting, the focus here will be on materials flows because:
• Energy flows largely are already effectively accounted for in the
IEA or EIA databases (or can be trivially derived from them).
• Emissions data has come directly from that available directly
from the World Bank’s WDI database
In contrast, the work we’ve done on material flows has been quite
major, and having individual countries become involved would improve
it still further.
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ASK QUESTIONS AS WE GO
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
What is Economy Wide – Material Flows Accounting (EWMFA) ?
EW-MFA deal with material inputs and outputs from a national
economy, using physical rather than monetary terms.
Covers domestic extraction of materials from the natural environment
(excluding water and air), and international trade of materials.
Only flows crossing the system boundary between the environment
and the economy are counted. “Hidden” flows are not counted.
The key final metric is Domestic Material Consumption (DMC), arrived
at via Domestic Extraction (DE) , and Physical Trade Balance (PTB).
PTB = Imports – Exports
DMC = DE + PTB
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
How do we compile EW-MFA accounts?
Refer to the Eurostat EW-MFA
Compilation Guide (2012) for
how these statistics should be
compiled at national level.
This is the “Standard”, (that
said, some departures may be
forced, or warranted for other
reasons)
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
What use is EW-MFA ?
The “Guide” says that it is “to describe the interaction of the domestic
economy with the natural environment and the rest of the world
economy (ROW) in terms of flows of materials.
Determine how much “stuff” needs to be extracted from the
environment to support a certain material standard of living.
Determine how much waste needs to be sunk back into the
environment (even infrastructure eventually ends up as waste).
** Provide basic information necessary to determine Resource
Efficiency**
Improved RE = Lower Environmental Impacts (ceteris paribus)
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Examples 1: National level DMC trajectories in the Asia-Pacific
region
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Individual trajectories in Latin America do not fit the classic pattern of
socio-metabolic transitions well
7 | Contrasting socio-metabolic transitions for two world regions - ISIE Ulsan 2013 | Jim West, Heinz Schandl
Examples 2: World regional level trajectories for DMC,
material intensity, and GDP/capita
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
How suited to purpose is DMC? Depends on commodity.
For allocating responsibility for resources “use” and
resource efficiency:
Minerals : Poor - Reasonable. Less biased against resource
producers / exporters than TMI (which includes hidden flows),
or DE alone, but material footprint far superior.
Fossil Fuels : Good (though misses embodied energy)
For determining where environmental loads accrue
efficiency:
Good. Captures where much of the material and energy
intensive processing takes place. Better than MF, but less
comprehensive than TMI.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
DMC Vs. Material Footprint.
From: Wiedmann, Schandl, Lenzen, Moran, Suh, West, and Kanemoto. (2013). “The material footprint of nations”.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Using international data sets for EW-MFA
“The Guide” is aimed at best practice for compilation of EW-MFA
accounts by individual countries, preferably by national statistical
agencies.
CSIRO EW-MFA databases needed to cover many countries, had to
rely on comprehensive international databases.
Inevitable that some quality lost due to use of generalized international
coefficients rather than nation specific ones.
However (we believe) that some our modelling used is superior to the
default options suggested in the guide (notably for biomass and metal
ores). Also much less biased towards industrialized nations.
Note: beware some misleading wording in “The Guide” e.g. misstatement of ore grades.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Key material categories.
Ultimately, four materials categories were defined, with further detail
within these in 11 sub-categories. Similar to “The Guide” top level
divisions, but not identical
Category
Biomass
Sub-category
Crops
Crop residues
Grazed biomass
Fossil fuels
Wood
Coal
Petroleum
Natural gas
Metal ores and industrial minerals
Construction minerals
Ferrous ores
Non-ferrous ores
Industrial minerals
Construction minerals
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Compilation level often more detailed.
Initial compilation of DE done into 35 categories, conform to The
Guide’s categories at 2 to 4 digit level.
Country
Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia
..
Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia
..
Australia
..
Australia
EWMFACat
A.1.1.1
A.1.1.10
A.1.1.2
A.1.1.3
..
A.1.2.1
A.1.2.2.2
A.1.3.1
A.1.3.2
A.2.1
A.2.2.1
A.2.2.2
..
A.3.1.4
..
A.4.2.2
EWMFAName
Cereals
Other crops
Roots and tubers
Sugar crops
..
Crop residues (used)
Grazed biomass
Timber (Industrial roundwood
Wood fuel and other extraction
Iron Ores
Copper ores - gross ore
Nickel ores - gross ore
..
Chemical and fertilizer minerals
..
Natural gas
1970
1971
12904533 14840092
20979
20536
763149
775769
17644800 19390500
..
..
..
22236442 24991770
57746580 61653104
5989240 6295400
1796720 1798338
51186080 62096904
16037299 18289790
538510.5 848992.9
..
..
..
174269.8 241905.1
..
..
..
1029096 1532984
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
1972
10781927
17861
824603
18928300
21413062
70415892
6044480
1799840
64398144
19558434
1138581
264879.8
2208486
Main raw data sources for DE estimation.
Colour indicates degree of confidence in estimates (green high, red
low)
Sub-category
Main Raw Data source
Post Processing
Crops
FAO Crop Production Statistics
Minimal
Crop residues
FAO Crop Production Statistics
Moderate modelling
Grazed biomass
FAO Food balance sheets
Extensive modelling, large assumptions
Wood
FAO Forestry
Minor modelling
Coal
IEA (and EIA)
Minimal
Petroleum
IEA (and EIA)
Minimal
Natural gas
IEA (and EIA)
Minimal (Energy to weight conversion)
Ferrous ores
USGS, UN Industrial Commodities Minimal, moderate assumptions
Non-ferrous ores
USGS, UN Industrial Commodities Simple modelling, large assumptions
Industrial minerals
USGS, UN Industrial Commodities Simple modelling, large assumptions
Construction minerals
USGS, UN Industrial Commodities Moderate modelling, large assumptions
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Main raw data sources for Trade estimation.
Colour indicates degree of confidence in estimates (green high, red
low)
Sub-category
Main Raw Data source
Post Processing
Crops
FAO Trade Statistics
Minimal
Crop residues
FAO Trade Statistics , UN Comtrade
Minimal
Grazed biomass
Wood
Coal
Petroleum
Natural gas
Ferrous ores
FAO Trade Statistics , UN Comtrade
FAO Forestry
IEA (and EIA)
IEA (and EIA)
IEA (and EIA)
UN Comtrade
Minimal
Minimal
Minimal
Minimal
Minimal (Energy to weight conversion)
Minimal
Non-ferrous ores
UN Comtrade
Minimal
Industrial minerals
UN Comtrade
Minimal
Construction minerals
UN Comtrade
Minimal
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Raw data is only a very rough starting point for some
categories of material - 1
EW-MFA is interested in determining the quantity of raw material as
extracted from the environment
Fossil fuel statistics are excellent, and most mass is retained in traded
products.
Basic crop data is good and generally in the units / on the basis we
require.
Forestry data also reasonably good, roundwood basis is what we want,
and weight conversions not too difficult.
In Contrast:
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Raw data is only a very rough starting point for some
categories of material - 2
Statistics on Metals usually on contained metal or concentrates basis.
We want ore.
Statistics on crop residues need to be calculated from crops produced.
We are only interested in that portion that enters economy. Statistics
here are poor.
Construction materials are rarely well recorded. The best we can do is
get the figure for cement (which is recorded), and apply factors to that.
Grazed biomass is almost never recorded. The figure is calculated
from complex modelling based on other figures, some of which are
poorly determined.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
DMC and the problem of double counting.
Double counting can be a major problem in determining DMC. A
compromise between missing major flow volumes and double counting
was reached.
We used different scopes for DE and Trade.
For DE, only primary materials as extracted from the environment were
counted, as double counting of mass occurs when we include
processed goods. e.g. Crude oil extracted + gasoline refined = double
counting
For Trade, products which had undergone considerable processing
were included in volumes e.g. exports of roundwood + wood chips +
paper are independent. Elaborately transformed, multi-material items
are excluded (of necessity).
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Example 1 - Grazed biomass - complex modelling, many
assumptions.
No nation measures how much grass its herds eat. HOWEVER:
Production of animal products is generally well recorded - FAO.
Portion of crops and fishmeal going to animal feed is recorded (to
some degree) – FAO.
Studies have been undertaken on the feed energy required to produce
different animal products (most notably Wirsenius 2000).
(Animal products x required feed energy/kg) – feed energy supplied
from crops = “Feed Gap”
Missing energy required for ruminant products must (we hope) come
from grass.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Grazed biomass (cont.) - Hierarchically model different
animals’ claims on feed crops.
Country
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
..
Albania
Albania
Albania
Item
Cattle meat
Cow milk, whole, fresh
Eggs Primary + (Total)
Goat meat
Goat milk, whole, fresh
..
..
Cattle meat
Cow milk, whole, fresh
Eggs Primary + (Total)
MJ/kg
499
13.82
53
998
27.64
160
9.95
42
Crop
NEmCattle NEgCattle
TotNExCattle DEPig
MEPig MEChicken
wheat_grains
9.35
6.49
15.85
16.3
15.6
14.7
rice_grains
9.35
6.49
15.85
16.3
15.6
14.7
maize_grains
9.35
6.49
15.85
16.4
15.7
15
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
sorghum_grains
8.59
5.82
14.42
15.5
14.9
15
cassava_tubers
8.16
5.43
13.6
14.5
13.9
0
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Example 2 – Metal ores - simple modelling, huge
assumptions.
Statistics on Metals usually on contained metal or concentrates basis.
We want ore tonnages.
Conceptually very simple, Ore = contained metal / grade
Unfortunately:
• Ore grades can vary enormously between deposits and countries.
• poly-metallic deposits –> coupled production -> double counting*.
• Trade data does not distinguish well between metal ores,
concentrates.
*In a sense, there is no fully satisfactory answer to the coupled production problem. The
Guide’s allocation by value is perhaps as good as any.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
What can be done by individual countries to improve EWMFA.
• Compile key mining statistics by commodity, especially tonnes and
grade of ore (mine by mine).
• Better record production of construction aggregates.
• Report mineral imports / exports in more disaggregated form i.e.
separate ores from concentrates, and attach a weighted average
metal content to each.
• Determine what non-grazed feeds are actually received by
individual classes of animal.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West
Links and further reading.
CSIRO and UNEP REEO reports and online material flows databases :
http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Adapting/Resource-Efficiency-Asia-Pacific.aspx
www.csiro.au/AsiaPacificResourceFlows,
www.csiro.au/LatinAmericaCaribbeanResourceFlows
(see also the technical annexes linked from these pages)
“The Guide”: just Google “Eurostat EW-MFA Compilation Guide” to get latest.
Context setting: Krausmann, F., S. Gingrich, N. Eisenmenger, K.-H. Erb, H. Haberl, and
M. Fischer-Kowalski. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the
20th century. Ecological Economics 68: 2696 - 2705.
DMC and Trade issues: Schandl, H. and J. West. 2012. Material Flows and Material
Productivity in China, Australia, and Japan. Journal of Industrial Ecology 16(3): 352-364.
Material Footprint: Wiedmann, T. O., H. Schandl, M. Lenzen, D. Moran, S. Suh, J.
West, and K. Kanemoto. 2013. The material footprint of nations. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences.
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Preparation of Economy Wide - Material Flows Accounts using International Data. – Black Mountain – September 2013 | Jim West