Download Economics 195 Using Economic Data in Policy Analysis

Economics 195
Using Economic Data in Policy Analysis
Professor Woolf
General Information:
Phone: 656-0190
Email: [email protected]
Fall 2011
Office: 339 Old Mill
Class meeting time: MWF 10:40 – 11:30 Room 234 Hills
Office Hours:
MWF 2:00 – 4:00. You do not need an appointment to see me during my
scheduled office hours.
Books:
Required: The Visual Display of Quantitative Information by Edward Tufte (Graphic Press),
Economical Writing, by Deirdre McCloskey (Waveland Press)
Description:
This course is designed to provide students with basic skills relating to how to find, understand,
use, and communicate data. It is not a statistics class, nor a substitute for a statistics class. It is a
class in which you will learn how to locate and use data, and how to avoid misuse of data.
Communication skills are, and will be, an increasingly important part of anyone’s professional
life. This class will focus on communicating information about the economy in ways that use
your skills and background in economics. To that end, it will require the integration of economic
theory, statistics, numbers, graphs, writing, and oral presentation. The focus of the course will
be on using data to communicate and analyze economic problems and policy solutions.
The course assumes you know how to navigate the web, how to manipulate data in Excel
spreadsheets, use Excel to create graphs, and basic knowledge of Powerpoint. It also assumes
you know, understand, and can use basic English language writing and speaking skills.
What you should know already how to do in Excel:
 Perform mathematical operations and sorting on a column of numbers
 Cut, copy, paste
 Create and edit graphs. We will be spending a lot of time on this so you should be
proficient at this or be willing to spend a lot of time on your own getting better.
 Change formatting options in spreadsheets and graphs
What you should be able to do in Word:
 Create a document
 Insert tables and graphs into the document and format them and the document
appropriately
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You will also need to be able to download data from an internet site to a spreadsheet. Here is a
guide:
1. Some sites have it built in, so just click. For example, the Bureau of Economic Analysis
publishes the GDP data. On the BEA site, you can directly download real and nominal GDP into
a spreadsheet:
From this page http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp
Download Current-dollar and “real” GDP by clicking and the spreadsheet automatically opens.
2. Sometimes a website will only give you data that looks a little like a spreadsheet. Take, for
example, a page like this:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032010/faminc/new07_000.htm
You can easily put this data into a spreadsheet without entering all the numbers by hand.
Excel has a function tab called Data (Note that I am using Windows Excel in Microsoft Office
2007; the name of this and other features in other versions of Excel may vary, although the
functionality will be the same). Open a blank spreadsheet and click on Data, then From Web,
and type in the URL (or, much easier, copy and paste it) into the address box that appears and
click Go. Click on the yellow arrow where the data you are looking for begin, then Import, and
you have the data in your spreadsheet. You will probably need to do some formatting to make it
look nice.
Grading:
Class participation and activities, including quizzes
Homework/short papers (I drop the two lowest scores)
Midterm and final, equally weighted
10%
60%
30%
Data Sources:
Best single source is Resources for Economists on the internet http://rfe.org (click on the data
link)
Census Bureau www.census.gov Lots of economic and demographic data from decennial
censuses and surveys; a lot more information than you might think; also some
international data
Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov Data on labor markets, prices, productivity, and more
Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov GDP, state and local income, international
Statistical Abstract of the United States http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ data on
everything from soup to nuts
Budget of the United States
Main Page http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/
Historical Tables http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy11/hist.html
Economic Report of the President http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ data and good narrative on
policy issues
World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/ international data, and not just economic
Historical Statistics of the United States
http://hsus.cambridge.org/HSUSWeb/HSUSEntryServlet
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FRED, the data series maintained by the St. Louis Fed. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Just
about every piece of data published by the U.S. Government. Once you figure out how to
use it, it is a great resource.
I recommend that you look at some economics blogs to enhance your understanding of what’s
going on in the economic world around you. Some of my favorites are
Marginal Revolution www.marginalrevolution.com One of the most-visited economics blogs
with all sorts of links, not just economics.
Econbrowser www.econbrowser.com James Hamilton, a macroeconomist at the UCSD who
specializes in oil and energy issues with timely macro and energy discussion.
Greg Mankiw’s blog www.gregmankiw.blogspot.com Mankiw, a Harvard economist, uses this
blog for his classes.
Calculated Risk www.calculatedriskblog.com Bill McBride, who writes this, called the
housing bubble well before most other people. His blog is very good on current statistics and his
graphs (and graph gallery) are excellent. A good way to keep up on the macroeconomy.
Conversable Economist http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/ Timothy Taylor, who
teaches at Macalaster College and edits The Journal of Economic Perspectives writes this very
readable blog looking at and summarizing interesting economic papers and current policy issues.
Vermont Tiger www.vermonttiger.com I blog I contribute to about Vermont policy issues.
Course Schedule and Topics:
Note for each section, you will be responsible for reading and being prepared to discuss the most
recent data, news releases, and press analyses of the data under discussion. To that end, you
should be reading, on a daily basis, The Wall Street Journal, NY Times (especially the business
section), and/or The Economist. Other readings will be provided during the semester.
I. Aug 29 – Sept 9: Basics of graphical design: What works and why, data sources,
understanding data, identifying high quality data, use of Excel and Powerpoint
Tufte Ch 1-3
Tufte Ch 4-6
II. Sept 12-16 Inflation: Trends, measurement, and adjustment for price changes
W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, Time Well Spent: The Declining Real Cost of Living in
America 1997 Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas pp 2 - 24
http://dallasfed.org/fed/annual/1999p/ar97.pdf
III. Sept 19 – 23: Energy Issues: Are we running out of oil? How expensive is gasoline?
U.S. Energy Information Agency: International Energy Outlook 2010 – Highlights (2011)
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html
Joel Darmstadter, Meeting the World’s Nature Resource Needs: Confrontation (or Worse)
Ahead? Resources for the Future (2011)
Eugene Gholz and Daryl Press, Energy Alarmism: The Myths That Make Americans Worry
About Oil (Executive Summary), Cato Institute (2007)
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-589.pdf
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IV. Sept 26 – Oct 7: The labor market, unemployment and jobs: current issues and the Great
Recession
Andreas Hornstein and Thomas A. Lubik, The Rise in Long Term Unemployment: Potential
Causes and Implications, Richmond Fed 2010 Annual Report (2011)
http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/annual_report/2010/pdf/article.pdf
Murat Tasci and Mary Zenker, Labor Market Rigidity, Unemployment,
and the Great Recession, Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary (2011)
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2011/2011-11.pdf
Joyce Kwok, Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn, Labor Force Participation and the Future Path of
Unemployment, San Francisco Fed, Economic Letter (2010)
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-27.pdf
V. Oct 10 – Oct 21: Income, Poverty, and Income Distribution
U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States
(2011)
Terry Fitzgerald, Where Has All the Income Gone? The Region, Minneapolis Fed, September
2008
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=4049
VI. Oct 24 – Oct 28: Who pays taxes, and how much do they pay?
CBO Average Federal Taxes by Income Group
http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/tax/2010/AverageFedTaxRates2007.pdf
Additional data here: http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/collections.cfm?collect=13
Thomas Piktty and Emmanuel Saez, How Progressive is the U.S. Tax System? A Historical and
International Comparison, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2007
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/piketty-saezJEP07taxprog.pdf
VII. Oct 31 – Nov 4: GDP and its components: Concepts and trends; What happened during
the Great Recession?
VIII. Nov 7 – Nov 18: Federal Government budget issues: Where does the federal government
get its revenues? How have the level of revenues and source of revenues changed over time?
What are the largest categories of federal spending? How has federal spending and the
components of spending changed over time? How has the federal deficit and debt changed over
time? What is the prognosis for the future?
Alan Auerbach and William Gale, Tempting Fate, the U.S. Budget Outlook, Brookings (2011)
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0208_budget_outlook_auerbach_gale/0
208_budget_outlook_auerbach_gale.pdf
Alan Auerbach and William Gale, The Federal Budget: A Post-Budget Deal Outlook,
Brookings, 2011
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0812_budget_outlook_auerbach_gale/0
812_budget_outlook_auerbach_gale.pdf
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IX. Nov 28 – Dec 7 Social Security: How does Social Security Work? What is its future?
James Hines and Timothy Taylor, Shortfalls in the Long Run: Predictions About the Social
Security Trust Fund, Journal of Economic Perspectives (2005)
http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/0895330054048759
Social Security: A Primer, Congressional Budget Office, Ch 1-3
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/32xx/doc3213/EntireReport.pdf
Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, A Summary of the 2011 Annual Reports
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/index.html
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