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WATER AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT : CHALLANGES IN THE CONTEXT OF DISASTER Santosh Kumar Director, SAARC DISASTER MANAGEMENT CENTRE NEW DELHI Human vulnerability in South Asia • Home of one of the oldest civilizations of world • Self-sufficiency in agriculture, progress in industry, infrastructure, science and technology etc • One of the poorest regions of globe • With 22% of world population, it produces only 1.3% of world income • South Asia is home of - 40% of world poor (500 mill) - 46% of world illiterates - 50% of malnourished child - Lowest sex ratio in the world Regional dimension of disasters • Natural disasters of South Asia do not remain confined to national frontiers; every disaster has a regional impact • Earthquake of Bhuj sent tremors as far deep as Karachi • Floods of Bihar and West Bengal as well as Bangladesh and Bhutan have their origin in Nepal • Cyclones of Bay of Bengal affect coastal regions of India and Bangladesh • Cyclones of Arabian Sea hit both the coasts of Gujrat in India and Sindh in Pakistan • Indian Ocean Tsunami caused devastation in four out of seven South Asian countries. • Recent quake in Pakistan devastated parts of Kashmir Impact of disasters • Disasters and economic growth: GDP loss range between 2 to 20% - revenue loss 12 to 66% • Social and psychological stress: Non quantifiable • Disaster and development: Disasters erode gains of development and further siphons resources • Disasters and poverty: Disasters aggravate poverty; Socially vulnerable: women-children-aged suffer • Disasters and environment: Disasters are both cause and consequence of environmental degradation, every disaster aggravates the fragile eco-system of the region • The reported number of disaster has been increasing 100 in 1975 to more than 400 in 2005. • Cost of disaster has also exploded ; Maldives Tsunami losses • amounted to 66 percent of GDP • Pakistan earthquake 2005 estimated damage of $ 5 billion WELL-BEING INDEX Attaining growth rate DISASTER DISASTER DISASTER GDP/POVERTY LINE HOUSEHOLD/ LIFE PERIOD / YEARS 19 Economic Physical Social Ecologi cal Interaction of Vulnerability factors Some commonalities • Layers of vulnerabilities have been created by lack of development or poor development • Physical vulnerabilities: slums in unsafe areas, poor houses, lack of water and sanitation etc • Economic vulnerabilities: poor economic conditions, lack of alternate livelihood support • Social vulnerabilities: social discrimination, gender inequities, lack of insurance, safety nets • Poor governance: poor enforcement of building bye laws, lack of community participation and involvement Water abundance ? Rural Areas Urban Areas Water Impact : Too Much & Too little The new reality • There is observational evidence of an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, and suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. The Reality • Hydro-met Disaster will have higher frequency, higher intensity with high uncertainties • Likelihood of more trans boundaries disasters • Disaster size will de capacitate system & governance laid down for Disaster management • To cope and adopt with new scenario of extreme events may require regional and sub regional support/programme/system/projects/laws The reality contd….. • water resources is coming under increasing pressure in the region due to the changing climate. • The climate affects the demand for water as well as the supply and quality. • climate change will enhance competition for water use for a wide range of economic, social and environmental applications • The challenge would be much more in coming years when • the demand curve would shift upwards with relatively inelastic supply ( demand growth rate would be higher than the supply growth rate) due to increase demand of agricultural , infrastructure development, uneconomic use, high population pressures etc • Supply curve become inelastic Heavier precipitation, more intense and longer droughts…. Threat to food security • • • Productivity of most crops would decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in water availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains). Global reports indicate a loss of 10-40% in crop production by 2100. Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Impact on public health Weather related mortality Infectious diseases Altered food productivity & associated pest and diseases Air quality respiratory illnesses Heat Strokes, Skin Diseases Eye Diseases Psychological distress Loss of PH infrastructure Geographic range and incidence of Vector Borne diseases, Changed incidence of Diarrhoeal Diseases Malnutrition , Hunger , Impaired child growth and development Asthma & Respiratory diseases Way ahead…… Few options for consideration .. • Strengthening of regional bodies/institutions • Institutional mechanism for data sharing • Regional –sub water Bank • Regional –sub regional Risk Transfer mechanisms • Developing regional financial Instruments- Insurance, disaster recovery, mitigation and adaptation etc.. • Regional Response and mitigation system • Programme and projects at the sub regional and regional levels • Integration of Regional Institutions working on Development, CCA- adaptation and DRR BUILD PARTNERSHIP DO NOT HANDLE IT ALONE The Real water Managers ? The past is defeated By Partnerships No time to waste… Thanks for kind attention