Download SAARC DISASTER MANAGEMENT CENTRE NEW DELHI Santosh Kumar

WATER AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT : CHALLANGES IN THE
CONTEXT OF DISASTER
Santosh Kumar
Director,
SAARC DISASTER MANAGEMENT CENTRE
NEW DELHI
Human vulnerability in South Asia
•
Home of one of the oldest civilizations of world
• Self-sufficiency in agriculture,
progress in industry, infrastructure,
science and technology etc
• One of the poorest regions of globe
• With 22% of world population, it
produces only 1.3% of world income
• South Asia is home of
- 40% of world poor (500 mill)
- 46% of world illiterates
- 50% of malnourished child
- Lowest sex ratio in the world
Regional dimension of disasters
• Natural disasters of South Asia do not remain confined
to national frontiers; every disaster has a regional
impact
• Earthquake of Bhuj sent tremors as far deep as Karachi
• Floods of Bihar and West Bengal as well as Bangladesh
and Bhutan have their origin in Nepal
• Cyclones of Bay of Bengal affect coastal regions of India
and Bangladesh
• Cyclones of Arabian Sea hit both the coasts of Gujrat in
India and Sindh in Pakistan
• Indian Ocean Tsunami caused devastation in four out of
seven South Asian countries.
• Recent quake in Pakistan devastated parts of Kashmir
Impact of disasters
• Disasters and economic growth: GDP loss range
between 2 to 20% - revenue loss 12 to 66%
• Social and psychological stress: Non quantifiable
• Disaster and development: Disasters erode gains of
development and further siphons resources
• Disasters and poverty: Disasters aggravate poverty;
Socially vulnerable: women-children-aged suffer
• Disasters and environment: Disasters are both cause
and consequence of environmental degradation,
every disaster aggravates the fragile eco-system of the
region
• The reported number of disaster has been
increasing 100 in 1975 to more than 400 in
2005.
• Cost of disaster has also exploded ;
Maldives Tsunami losses
• amounted to 66 percent of GDP
• Pakistan earthquake 2005 estimated
damage of $ 5 billion
WELL-BEING INDEX
Attaining growth rate
DISASTER
DISASTER
DISASTER
GDP/POVERTY
LINE
HOUSEHOLD/ LIFE PERIOD / YEARS
19
Economic
Physical
Social
Ecologi
cal
Interaction of Vulnerability factors
Some commonalities
• Layers of vulnerabilities have been created by lack of
development or poor development
• Physical vulnerabilities: slums in unsafe areas, poor
houses, lack of water and sanitation etc
• Economic vulnerabilities: poor economic conditions,
lack of alternate livelihood support
• Social vulnerabilities: social discrimination, gender
inequities, lack of insurance, safety nets
• Poor governance: poor enforcement of building bye
laws, lack of community participation and involvement
Water abundance ? Rural Areas
Urban Areas
Water Impact : Too Much & Too little
The new reality
• There is observational evidence of an increase
in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North
Atlantic since about 1970, and suggestions of
increased intense tropical cyclone activity in
some other regions where concerns over data
quality are greater.
The Reality
• Hydro-met Disaster will have higher frequency,
higher intensity with high uncertainties
• Likelihood of more trans boundaries disasters
• Disaster size will de capacitate system &
governance laid down for Disaster management
• To cope and adopt with new scenario of extreme
events may require regional and sub regional
support/programme/system/projects/laws
The reality contd…..
• water resources is coming under increasing
pressure in the region due to the changing
climate.
• The climate affects the demand for water as
well as the supply and quality.
• climate change will enhance competition for
water use for a wide range of economic, social
and environmental applications
• The challenge would be much more in coming
years when
• the demand curve would shift upwards with
relatively inelastic supply ( demand growth
rate would be higher than the supply growth
rate) due to increase demand of agricultural ,
infrastructure development, uneconomic use,
high population pressures etc
• Supply curve become inelastic
Heavier precipitation,
more intense and longer droughts….
Threat to food security
•
•
•
Productivity of most crops would decrease
due to increase in temperature and
decrease in water availability (especially in
Indo-Gangetic plains).
Global reports indicate a loss of 10-40% in
crop production by 2100.
Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC
increase in temperature reduces wheat
production by 4-5 million tons.
Impact on public health
Weather related mortality
Infectious diseases
Altered food productivity &
associated pest and diseases
Air quality respiratory
illnesses
Heat Strokes, Skin Diseases
Eye Diseases
Psychological distress
Loss of PH infrastructure
Geographic range and incidence
of Vector Borne diseases,
Changed incidence of Diarrhoeal
Diseases
Malnutrition , Hunger ,
Impaired child growth and
development
Asthma & Respiratory
diseases
Way ahead……
Few options for consideration ..
• Strengthening of regional bodies/institutions
• Institutional mechanism for data sharing
• Regional –sub water Bank
• Regional –sub regional Risk Transfer mechanisms
• Developing regional financial Instruments- Insurance,
disaster recovery, mitigation and adaptation etc..
• Regional Response and mitigation system
• Programme and projects at the sub regional and
regional levels
• Integration of Regional Institutions working on
Development, CCA- adaptation and DRR
BUILD
PARTNERSHIP
DO NOT
HANDLE IT
ALONE
The Real water Managers ?
The past is
defeated
By
Partnerships
No time
to waste…
Thanks
for kind
attention