Download Regional trade at a crossroads: Assessment and outlook

Regional trade at a crossroads:
Assessment and outlook
State of affairs
1. Deceleration of world trade
2. International context with recessionary bias:
excess liquidity and insufficient demand
3. Structural imbalances: de-linkage between the
financial market and the real economy
4. Slow growth and global uncertainty exacerbate
the region’s weaknesses
5. The region’s worst export performance in decades
(four years of no growth)
World trade grew faster than GDP during most of the
post-war period…
ANNUAL VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL GOODS EXPORTS VOLUMES AND GLOBAL GDP, 1952-2014
(Percentages)
20
15
10
8.6
7.8
6.5
5.4
5.3
3.9
5
2.6
0
-5
European
Community 1957
-10
GATT 1947
China’s
opening 1978
Fall of the Berlin
Wall 1989
Exports
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of data from the WTO and IMF.
GDP
Average export growth
2015
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
-15
… but it has lost momentum since 2008-2009
ANNUAL VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL GOODS EXPORTS BY VALUE AND VOLUME, 1992-2015 a
(Percentages)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Price
Volume
Value
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), World Trade Database.
a Figures for 2015 are ECLAC projections.
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-30
Current account imbalances and their
distribution
SELECTED GROUPINGS AND COUNTRIES: BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, 1997-2015 a
(Percentages of GDP)
2.5%
1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%
Surplus
countries do
not absorb
exports of
deficit
countries
Deficit countries
have to adjust
-1.5%
-2.5%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China
Japan
Euro Area without Germany and the Netherlands
Latin America without Venezuela (B.R.)
Germany and the Netherlands
USA
Oil Exporting Countries
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of International Monetary Fund, 2015 External Sector Report, Washington, DC, 27 July 2015.
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
Lack of
reciprocity
The financial sector is growing faster and delinking
from the real economy
EXTERNAL FINANCIAL ASSETS a AND SELECTED REAL VARIABLES WORLDWIDE, 2003-2013
(Indices, 2003=100)
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
2003
2004
2005
2006
Exports of Goods and Services
2007
2008
Financial Assets
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of data from the IMF, UNCTAD and the World Bank.
a Calculated on the basis of each country’s international investment position.
2009
2010
2011
2012
Gross Capital Formation
2013
World GDP
Excess liquidity and little effective demand:
diminished monetary policy space
The main interest rate tends to zero
Despite QE, inflation does not pick up
EUROZONE, JAPAN, UNITED STATES: POLICY
RATES, 2000-2015
(Percentages)
EUROZONE, JAPAN, UNITED STATES: INFLATION RATES,
2000-2015
(Percentages)
7
12
10
6
8
5
6
4
4
3
2
0
2
United States
Euro Area
Japan
2015-05-01
2014-09-01
2014-01-01
2013-05-01
2012-09-01
2012-01-01
2011-05-01
2010-09-01
2010-01-01
2009-05-01
2008-09-01
2008-01-01
2007-05-01
2006-09-01
2006-01-01
2005-05-01
2004-09-01
2004-01-01
2003-05-01
2002-09-01
2002-01-01
-6
2001-05-01
0
2000-09-01
-4
2000-01-01
1
Feb-2000
Oct-2000
Jun-2001
Feb-2002
Oct-2002
Jun-2003
Feb-2004
Oct-2004
Jun-2005
Feb-2006
Oct-2006
Jun-2007
Feb-2008
Oct-2008
Jun-2009
Feb-2010
Oct-2010
Jun-2011
Feb-2012
Oct-2012
Jun-2013
Feb-2014
Oct-2014
Jun-2015
-2
Japan
Euro Area
United States
Source: ECLAC, based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, and from the Federal Reserve and the Statistics Bureau of Japan.
Aggregate demand is less dynamic after the crisis
EURO AREA, JAPAN AND UNITED STATES: CONTRIBUTION OF AGGREGATE DEMAND COMPONENTS
TO GDP GROWTH, 2000-2014
(Percentages)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Japan
Private consumption
Net exports
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of data from the OECD.
Euro Area
Government consumption
GDP growth
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-8
United States
Gross capital formation
The transition of the Chinese model
impacts global growth
CHINA: ANNUAL VARIATIONS IN SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(Percentages)
GDP (2000-2015)
a
Industrial production and retail sales (2010-2015)
16
23
21
14
19
17
12
15
10
13
11
8
9
6
7
Industrial Production
Jun-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jun-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
Jun-12
Feb-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Jun-10
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Feb-10
5
4
Retail Sales
Source: ECLAC, based on IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015 (GDP) and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (for industrial production
and retail sales).
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
Utilization levels have not recovered…
INSTALLED CAPACITY UTILIZATION, 1995-2015
(Percentages)
United States
Eurozone
85%
87%
83%
85%
81%
83%
81%
79%
79%
77%
77%
75%
75%
73%
73%
71%
69%
67%
67%
65%
65%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
69%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
71%
Source: ECLAC, based on data from Eurostat and the United States Federal Reserve.
… the same happens at the sectoral level and
excess capacity sends prices tumbling in China
LEVEL OF UTILIZATION OF INSTALLED CAPACITY
(Percentages)
Automobile industry in Brazil
World copper refining
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
CHINA: Annual variation of industrial producer prices 2000-2015 a
(percentage)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
China is reducing the imported content
of its exports, especially in high-tech products…
SELECTED COUNTRIES: IMPORTED CONTENT
IN GOODS AND SERVICES EXPORTS,
1995, 2005 AND 2011
(Percentages)
CHINA: IMPORTED CONTENT OF EXPORTS
BY SECTOR, 1995, 2005 AND 2011
(Percentages)
40
Total Exports
35
Services
30
High-Tech Industries
25
Medium-High-Tech
Industries
Low-Medium-Tech
Industries
20
15
10
Low-Tech Industries
5
Manufacturing (Total)
South Africa
China
India
Russia
Mexico
Brazil
Japan
Germany
United States
0
Mining
Agriculture
0
1995
2005
2011
Source: ECLAC, based on data from the OECD/WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database.
2011
20
2005
40
60
1995
80
… while its high-tech exports are gaining
market share in developed countries
EUROPEAN UNION, JAPAN AND UNITED STATES: STRUCTURE OF MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
FROM CHINA, 2000 AND 2014
(Percentages)
100%
90%
16
23
26
80%
70%
19
34
36
40
13
19
60%
21
20
19
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2014
United States
2000
2014
European Union
2000
2014
Japan
High-Tech Manufacturing
Medium-Tech Manufacturing
Low-Tech Manufacturing
Manufacturing Based on Natural Resources
Primary Goods
Source: ECLAC, based on data from COMTRADE.
Lack of reciprocity and the recessionary bias is
stalling trade recovery
• Slow growth in the European Union (one-third of
global trade).
• Import substitution in China results in reduced
demand: transition towards a new model
• Reduced incentives for further geographical
fragmentation of production due to the maturity
of China’s and Eastern Europe’s integration into
the world economy
• Weaknesses in global governance impede the
coordinated expansion of world output and
productive restructuring in deficit countries
The TPP and other megaregional agreements
aim to inject dynamism into world trade but...
• TPP accounts for:
– 36% of world GDP
– 23% of world exports,
26% of world imports
– 28% of FDI inflows
– 43% of outflows
– 11% of world
population
Intra-TPP trade reached
US $2.1 trillion in 2014
• WTO-plus commitments in
services, investment,
government procurement,
digital trade
• By excluding China, the US
wants to write the rules of the
game for IP incl. granting
extended protection for
pharmaceutical patents
• Risks include the opening up
sensitive sectors such as auto
parts and dairy products
• Textile sector is sensitive for
Central America (due to
increased competition from
Viet Nam)
Latin America and the Caribbean
shows its worst export
performance in eight decades
The region’s foreign trade
will experience sharp
contractions in 2015
Between 2012 and 2015, the region has
its worst export performance in 8 decades
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ANNUAL VARIATION IN EXPORT
VALUE AND VOLUME, 1931-2015
(Percentages)
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-5.8
-23.4
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
-40
Volume
Price
Value
Source: ECLAC, based on ECLAC, “América Latina: relación de precios de intercambio”, Cuadernos Estadísticos de la CEPAL, Nº 1, Santiago, 1976 and
data from regional indices.
Regional exports are projected to drop 14% in 2015, the third
straight year of ever increasing declines in value
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ANNUAL VARIATION IN MERCHANDISE
EXPORTS, 2000-2015 a
(Percentages)
30
20
10
1.0
0
-15.0
-10
-14.0
-20
Volume
Price
Value
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-30
Regional imports will drop 10% in value
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ANNUAL VARIATION IN MERCHANDISE IMPORTS,
2000-2015 a
(Percentages)
30
20
10
0
-8.5
-10
-1.5
-10.0
-20
Volume
Price
Value
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-30
In 2015, there is a drop in the region’s exports
to all its main trading partners
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: VARIATION IN THE VALUE OF EXPORTS TO SELECTED
MARKETS, 2014 AND 2015 a
(percentages)
-21
Latin America and the Caribbean
-9
-19
Asia (inc. China)
-6
-17
European Union
-6
-16
China
-9
-14
World
-3
-8
United States
-25.0
2015
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
3
-5.0
2014
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
0.0
5.0
Trade with China has lost momentum and
exports have fallen for two consecutive years
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN : ANNUAL VARIATION IN VALUE OF TRADE WITH CHINA,
2008 to 2015
(Percentages)
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
-10
-30
Exports
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
-50
Imports
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC ) on the basis of data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
For China, the region is relatively unimportant
except as a supplier of commodities
CHINA: STRUCTURE OF IMPORTS OF GOODS BY REGION OF ORIGIN, 2013
(Percentages )
100
10
4
5
20
28
80
54
66
60
53
63
53
44
40
20
27
10
2
6
14
15
8
15
29
11
4
0
Primary Goods
(32%)
Intermediate
Goods (29%)
Latin America and the Caribbean
Machinery and
Equipment
(14%)
United States
Consumption
Goods (10%)
European Union
11
13
9
8
7
7
Mixed-Use
Goods (9%)
Total
Rest of Asia
Rest of the World
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC ), based on the database Trade Flows Characterization of the Centre
d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII).
The largest drops in export value will be in
South America and the Caribbean
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: (SELECTED SUB-REGIONS AND COUNTRIES) PROJECTED
VARIATIONS IN EXPORT VALUE, VOLUME AND PRICE, 2015
(Percentages)
10.0
5.0
3.9
0.0
-5.0
3.3
4.6
1.0
-20.4
-3.9
-10.0
-4.1
-15.0
-14.0
-17.3
-20.0
-25.0
-20.8
South America
Caribbean
Volume
Central America
Price
Mexico
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Value
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
Commodity prices: the 40 years
that were just 9…
WORLD PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITY
GROUPS, 2000-2015 a
(Indices, 2005 = 100)
LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES:
PROJECTED AVERAGE VARIATION IN EXPORT PRICES,
2015
250
Caribbean (-20%)
200
Mexico (-9%)
Central
America (-7%)
150
Colombia (-29%)
100
Venezuela, B.R. (-47%)
Brazil (-16%)
Ecuador (-29%)
50
Peru (-15%)
Bolivia, P.S. (-25%)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
Paraguay (-11%)
Chile (-13%)
Uruguay (-7%)
Energy
Non-energy commodities
Agricultural raw materials
Foods
Argentina (-17%)
Minerals and metals
Source: ECLAC, based on data from the World Bank, the IMF and The Economist
Intelligence Unit.
a Values for 2015 are estimates.
Source: ECLAC based on data from COMTRADE, World Bank, FAO, UNCTAD and the US
Departaments of Commerce and Labor.
There is a drop in regional terms of trade, except for
Central America and non-oil exporting Caribbean countries
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (SELECTED GROUPINGS AND COUNTRIES):
PROJECTED VARIATION IN THE TERMS OF TRADE, 2015
(Percentages)
Oil Exporters (Excluding Mexico)
-32
Cuba and the Dominican Republic
-9
Latin American and the Caribbean
-7
Agro-Products Exporters
-6
Brazil
-6
Mineral Exporters
-4
Mexico
-3
The Caribbean (Excluding Trinidad and
Tobago)
1
Central America
3
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
0
5
Nominal depreciations of several currencies in
the region have not boosted exports
SELECTED COUNTRIES: MONTHLY NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX, JANUARY 2000 to JULY 2015
(Index January 2000 = 100)
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures
Moreover, the region’s trade deficit as a share
of GDP more than doubles in 2015
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (SELECTED GROUPINGS AND COUNTRIES):
TRADE BALANCES, 2014-2015
(Percentages of GDP)
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-1.2
-1.5
Oil exporters
Mineral exporters
2014
-1.2
Mexico
Latin American and
the Caribbean
2015
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
Brazil
GLOBAL CONTEXT
The region is at a turning point: risk global
dependency or move towards diversification and
regional integration
United States
European Union
China
Other emerging economies
Slow growth
Desequilibria and recessive adjustment
Changes in the structure of global trade
SURPLUS COUNTRIES
Absence of reciprocity
DEFICIT COUNTRIES
Lack of coordination
How does Latin America and the
Caribbean fit into the global picture?
Export structure:
-highly concentrated
-anchored in natural
resources and low
technology goods
-weak participation in
international value chains
Import structure:
Outcomes:
- worst export performance in 8 decades (-14%)
- intrarregional trade plummets in South America (-21%)
- regional trade deficit doubles (to 1.2% of GDP)
- depreciating currencies
- lower (or negative) GDP growth
- diversified and intensive in
goods with high technological
content
- dependent on imports of
capital goods and intermediate
goods
What to do?
• Reinvigorate intraregional trade
• Attract FDI towards non-extractive sectors
which favors links with local and regional
suppliers
• Promote the Trade Facilitation Agenda
• Diversify, promote industrialization and
innovation and increase local and regional
content of production and exports
• Weak global governance requires
reciprocity and coordinated regional action
Intraregional exports fall more than exports
to the rest of the world
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: VARIATION IN INTRAREGIONAL AND
EXTRAREGIONAL EXPORTS BY VALUE, 2005-2015 a
(Percentages)
40
30
20
10
0
-12
-10
-20
-23
-30
2007
2008
2009
2010
Intra-Regional
2011
2012
2013
Extra-Regional
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
2014
2015
Intraregional trade plummets in South America but grows
slightly in Central America
SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA: VARIATION IN INTRAREGIONAL AND
EXTRAREGIONAL EXPORTS BY VALUE, 2007-2015 a
(Percentages )
South America
Central America
40
25
30
20
20
15
10
10
5
0
2
0
-10
-20
-20
-24
-30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Intra-Regional
Extra-Regional
-5
-6
-10
-15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Intra-Regional
Extra-Regional
Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.
a Figures for 2015 are projections.
Trade facilitation helps reduce
costs and time to trade in the region
• TF is “the simplification and harmonization of international
trade procedures"
• Especially important in the context of global value chains,
which implies more border crossings
• It requires a high degree of intergovernmental coordination:
– Customs, health inspection, ministries of transport, health,
migration, etc.
• WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation (TFA) will soon enter
into force
• This year ECLAC conducted a survey in the region to
measure the degree of progress made on TF measures and
readiness for TFA implementation
The costs of intraregional trade are higher than
the costs of trading with the United States
SELECTED GROUPINGS: NON-TARIFF COSTS OF INTRA-GROUP TRADE AND TRADE WITH THE UNITED
STATES, AVERAGE 2008-2013
(Tariff equivalents in percentages)
Caribbean
Central
America and
Mexico
Caribbean a
154%
Central America
and Mexico b
160%
88%
South America c
218%
124%
South
America
Southeast
Asia
91%
Southeast Asia d
76%
European Union e
United States
European
Union
43%
89%
66%
84%
85%
67%
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of information of trade costs from the World Bank and Economic Commission for Asia Pacific (ESCAP) database.
a Jamaica and Dominican Republic. b Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico. c Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia. d Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and
Thailand. e Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
The region is making progress in the implementation of
trade facilitation however, the Caribbean lags behind
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (19 COUNTRIES): TOTAL SCORES IN THE GLOBAL
SURVEY ON TRADE FACILITATION AND PAPERLESS TRADE IMPLEMENTATION, 2015
(Percentages of the maximum possible score )
90
83
82
81
Regional average: 68%
81
77
80
76
76
74
74
74
71
70
70
69
64
60
60
53
50
50
47
40
31
30
20
10
0
Surinam
Barbados
Bolivia (Pl. State of)
Trinidad and Tobago
Honduras
Nicaragua
Uruguay
Paraguay
Dominican Republic
Brazil
Peru
Panama
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Chile
El Salvador
Ecuador
Colombia
Mexico
Source : Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on information from the Global Survey of Trade Facilitation and Paperless Trade
Implementation 2015
Coordination among government agencies is the main
challenge in implementing trade facilitation in the region
WHAT ARE THE MAJOR CHALLENGES FACING YOUR COUNTRY TO IMPLEMENT
TRADE FACILITATION MEASURES?
(Number of mentions)
16
14
14
13
12
10
10
8
6
6
4
4
3
2
0
Lack of coordination Insufficient human Financial constraints Lead agency is not Lack of political will
among government
resources
defined clearly
agencies
Insufficient IT
infrastructure
Source : Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on information from the Global Survey of Trade Facilitation and
Paperless Trade Implementation 2015
Making progress on the Trade Facilitation
agenda is important for the region
• To increase the low share of intraregional trade
• To improve production linkages within the region
and with the rest of the world
• To promote the internationalization of SMEs
• To promote transparency and coordination among
government agencies and fight corruption
• Integrate the Caribbean with the rest of the region
• National TF efforts would have a greater impact if
they are coordinated regionally
During the commodity boom, the region increased its
dependence on natural resource exports
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS
TO SELECTED DESTINATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY, 2000, 2005 AND 2014
(Percentages )
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
68
30%
20%
56
50
48
48
56
10%
21
25
2000
2005
19
24
22
2000
2005
29
0%
2000
2005
2014
2000
European Union
2005
2014
Asia and the Pacific
High-Tech Manufactures
Low-Tech Manufactures
Commodities
Source: ECLAC, based on data from COMTRADE database.
United States
2014
2014
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Medium-Tech Manufactures
Natural resource-based manufactures
This trend is even more pronounced
if Mexico is excluded
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (EXCLUDING MEXICO): STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS TO
SELECTED DESTINATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY, 2000, 2005 AND 2014
(Percentages )
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
71
30%
50
52
60
52
59
47
20%
45
43
10%
33
25
24
2000
2005
0%
2000
2005
2014
European Union
2000
2005
2014
Asia and the Pacific
2000
2005
2014
United States
2014
Latin America and the
Caribbean
High-Tech Manufactures
Medium-Tech Manufactures
Low-Tech Manufactures
Natural resource-based manufactures
Commodities
Source: ECLAC, based on data from COMTRADE database.
Policy recommendations
• Regional integration: Move towards an
integrated space with common rules for trade
and investment
• Investment in transport and ITC infrastructure:
towards an integrated digital space
• Value chains for greater resilience of
intraregional trade and production and export
diversification
• Industrial and technological policies with
environmental sustainability to grow with
equality