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M & D FORUM New Pattern of Chinese Economy in the Next Five Years TAO Xinghui School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, China, 200092 [email protected] Abstract: the next five years is that China's "the 12th Five-year Plan", that is, from 2011 to 2015. In these five years, what changes will China's economy happen? Future new patterns, several measures must do improvement of foreign trade and advancing the reform of RMB exchange rate and promote free trade zone. Keywords: New pattern, China's economic, Measures 1 Introduction In the next five years is China's "the 12th Five-year Plan", that is, from 2011 to 2015. In these five years, what changes will China's economy happen? In China's economic development has been with three wagons support, that is, consumption, investment, export. "The 12th Five-year Plan" Planning key indicates that you want to change the mode of economic growth in China, this comprehensive periodical, network, some of the views in the newspapers, in conjunction with our own thoughts, proposed a new pattern of China's economic development of the next five years. 2 Measures 2.1 To begin, we must make improve in the foreign trade. First, on the production, we further reduce the processing trade. Secondly, we improve the product structure. Increasingly high labor costs in China, China cannot simply on labor-intensive enterprises, and China tries to improve the product structure. Implementation all social products two large classes of structure in the, means of proportion has rose of trend, and means of subsistence of proportion is has decline of trend; in means of subsistence in the, food of proportion has decline of trend, and commodity of proportion is has rose of trend; in social products of sector structure in the, agricultural products of proportion has decline of trend, and industrial products of proportion is has rose of trend; in agricultural products in the, subsistence sexual products (as food) of proportion has decline of trend, and commercial products (as cash crops) of proportion is has rose of trend. However, do not reject other with relative stability of the product structure; generally remain in a certain proportion of the various parts of levels. Various different products structure influences each other, mutual constraints. Any change in the product structure has certain limits. Under Socialist conditions, to rationalize the product structure, need based on the product development trends in the structure of consciousness adjustment. Thirdly, regional structure: China trade should include not only of Europe, America and Japan, but should go further to these places go to Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. IV Encouraging "go out". Foreign investment is not blind, it is necessary to avoid barriers to trade, expanding the size of the market, absorb advanced management technology, but also good to "go". First, in a more market-oriented, more open, more interdependent world, the State must take into account, via macro-influence and the long-term development of strategic importance to foreign investment, improving the position of countries in the global economy, in the international allocation of resources for a more favorable situation and improve relations with relevant countries and regions. 2.2 China's emergence as the "world factory", over 70% foreign trade dependence degree of cases, countries must be taken into account by improving the quality and expanding foreign investment two wheels, proactively in a wider space for industry structure adjustment and optimization of resources allocation. While maintaining the advantages of manufacturing, to high value-added industrial chain 296 M & D FORUM links, enhance China's role in the international division of labor. Third, both manufactured products from China in the world, or of their industrialization and modernization needs, you must consider how to proactively through foreign investment from global access to capital, technology, marketing, strategic resource. IV, in the case of foreign-funded enterprises into China, heavily share market in China, China must take into account the development of new space. In foreign-invested company came at the same time, China has the strength of enterprises "go", the respective advantages, "you beat you, I called my", which is an inevitable reality. V, in transnational corporations use their strength, while restructuring China advantage, Chinese enterprises with actual strength should also use the opportunity of adjustment of industrial structure of transnational corporations, with their own comparative advantages of restructuring their industries and enterprises, active participation in international cooperation and competition, to gain market share and technology development capabilities. In this process, strengthen it, training and match the economic power of transnational corporations. What’s more, promoting the reform of RMB exchange rate, grasp the USD and RMB's exchange rate, and ultimately of RMB internationalization. We should develop an exchange rate target zone, not to interfere in the exchange rate lower, and when to limit the use of means of intervention. Appreciation of the renminbi is not simple, but to enhance it flexibility, depending on the demand and supply plan or changes in the world economy increased flexibility. RMB internationalization has the following benefits: first, improving China's international status, enhance China's influence on the world economy. Dollar, euro, Yen and other currencies was able to act as the international monetary, is the United States, the European Union, Japan economic strength and international credit status more fully reflected. After the internationalization of renminbi, China has the power of a world currency issuing and regulating, on the impact of global economic activity and the right to speak will increase as well. Meanwhile, the Renminbi has a place in the international monetary system, you can change the current status of being dominated; reduce the adverse effects of the international monetary system to China. Second, we reduce the risk of exchange rate, promoting the development of international trade and investment in China. Foreign trade and the rapid development of foreign trade enterprises hold large amounts of foreign currency claims and debts. Larger currency exposure risk, currency fluctuations can have a certain impact on enterprise operation. After the RMB's internationalization, foreign trade and investment in local currency-denominated and settled enterprises face exchange rate risk will decrease as well, which can further promote the development of China's foreign trade and investment. At the same time, we will also promote the development of RMB-denominated bonds and other financial markets. Third, further promote the development of frontier trade in China. Border trade and tourism entities such as the economic cross-border RMB cash flows that occurred, to a certain extent alleviate the lack of means of settlement in bilateral exchanges, promote and expand bilateral economic and trade exchanges, accelerating border economic development in minority areas. In addition, many neighboring countries were countries rich in natural resources, market shortages, in stark contrast with the Chinese. Outside currency outflow, which ease the shortage of natural resources in China, market oversupply beneficial. IV, we get more international mint income. Most directly after the internationalization of renminbi, maximum benefits are access to international mint income. mint is the Publisher, by virtue of the privilege of issuing currency notes obtained by the difference between the cost of issue and denomination notes issued. In their release notes, we had taken from the national to the country. Issued world currency equivalent of mint taxes from other countries, this income is basically no costs. 2.3 We should promote free trade zone. So, I would like to "the 12th Five-year Plan" we should put "the 12th Five-year Plan" the trade balance, improve trade structure, product mix and historical structures, encourage enterprises to "go out", further improve the RMB exchange rate reform, promote regional polarization had a lot of progress. Set free trade area of role main is: using its as commodity distributed Center of status, expanded export trade and re-exports trade, improve set national and area in international trade in the of status, increased exchange income; conducive to attract foreign, introduced abroad advanced technology and management experience; conducive to expanded labor ② ③ 297 ① M & D FORUM ④ employment opportunities; in port, and traffic hub and border area set area, can up to prosperity port, and stimulation is located country traffic transport development and promote border region economic development of purpose. Set the effects of free trade zone there are two main classes: one Member refers to the region between the Elimination of tariff and trade measures to limit the number of direct members after the impact of trade development; second class refers to the after the conclusion of the FTA, due to increased productivity and capital accumulation in the region, the indirect effect of causing members faster economic growth. Both were also referred to as static and dynamic effects. (1) Effect of static: static effect in the effects of the most representative is the so-called "trade creation effect" and "trade diversion effect". Members of the trade creation effect in the major regional falling transaction costs and trade restrictions between cancel each other, resulting in the domestic high cost product to be replaced by other members of the regional low-cost goods, as well as past each other and high tariffs limit to the number of its low-cost merchandise exports expanded, giving the region more trading opportunities and economic benefits to the export and import sides. "Trade diversion effects" refers to the original and regional external trade between countries, due to the reduction of transaction costs in the region may be replaced by trade in the region between members. (2) Dynamic effects: dynamic effects include "market expansion effect" and "promoting competition effect". The former refers to as the expansion of trade, will result in a scale of production and circulation, and bring about industrial cluster effect. The latter refers to as the formation of regional unified market, will promote competition in the monopoly industries in the region, and improve production efficiency. Trade creation effect, market expansion effect and promote competition impact many positive effects, but may also negatively impact the trade diversion effect, due to the low-efficiency products in the region likely to replace members of the non-efficient products. In General, require a member of the absorption efficiency and expanding the regional coverage is only possible to prevent the negative effects. 3 Conclusion China should play the role of foreign trade and the promotion of foreign trade in China's economic development, but also to moderate expansion and improvement of foreign trade situation. "the 12th Five-year Plan" we should put consumer to first place, second place in the export to, and investment to third place, increase people's purchasing power, so that they can, willing to consumption, improve their standard of living so that they dare to consume, provide appropriate products for their willingness to spend. And do the measures mention above, China's economic development of the next five years will certainly render a new pattern. Author in brief: Tao Xinghui, Tongji University, school of Economics and management graduate, France ESCP-EUROPE business school graduate. Email: [email protected] Tel: 13,761,022,880. References ) [1]. http://www.chinabidding.com/jksb-detail-204022845.html. (in Chinese [2]. Hao Fu. They "go" to a foothold [J]. When the Chinese magazine, 2011,3. (in Chinese [3]. Hao. "Going out" needs more "inclusive growth" [J]. When the Chinese magazine, 2011,1. (in Chinese [4]. http://www.baidu.com/s?wd=%B0%D9%BF%C6&word=%B0%D9%BF%C6&tn=sitehao123. 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