Download Edwards

Math 301 Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Spring 2015
Section 001 10:20 to 11:20, M W F
Instructor: Dr. Chris Edwards
Phone: 948-3969
Office: Swart 123
Classroom: Swart 14 Text: Probability and Statistics, 8th edition, by Devore. Earlier editions of
the text are also acceptable.
Recommended Calculator: TI-83, TI-83 Plus, or TI-84 Plus, by Texas Instruments. Other TI
graphics calculators (like the TI-86) do not have the same statistics routines we will be using and
may cause you troubles. We will also use computer software, such as MINITAB, to perform
statistical work.
Catalog Description: Elementary probability models, discrete and continuous random variables,
sampling and sampling distributions, estimation, and hypothesis testing. Prerequisite:
Mathematics 172 with a grade of C or better.
Course Objectives: The goal of statistics is to gain understanding from data. This course
focuses on critical thinking and active learning. Students will be engaged in statistical problem
solving and will develop intuition concerning data analysis, including the use of appropriate
technology. Specifically students will develop
•
•
•
•
an awareness of the nature and value of statistics
a sound, critical approach to interpreting statistics, including possible misuses
facility with statistical calculations and evaluations, using appropriate technology
effective written and oral communication skills
Grading: Final grades are based on these 300 points:
Topic
Points
Tentative Date
Exam 1
Summaries, Probability
53 pts.
March 9
Exam 2
Distributions
53 pts.
April 16-17
[Testing Center]
3, 4, 5
Exam 3
Inference
53 pts.
May 15
7, 8
Group
Presentations
15 Points Each
60 pts.
Various
Homework
9 Points Each
81 pts.
Mostly Weekly
1
Chapters
1, 2, 3.1 to
3.3, 4.1 to 4.2
Grades: Grades will be assigned by the following schedule.
Grade
A
AB+
B
Points (Percent)
270 (90 %)
261 (87 %)
249 (83 %)
240 (80 %)
Grade
BC+
C
C-
Points (Percent)
231 (77 %)
219 (73 %)
210 (70 %)
201 (67 %)
Grade
D+
D
DF
Points (Percent)
189 (63 %)
180 (60 %)
171 (57 %)
170 or fewer
Homework: I will collect three homework problems approximately once a week. The due dates
are listed on the course outline below. While I will only be grading three problems, I presume
that you will be working on many more than just the three I assign. I suggest that you work
together in small groups on the homework for this class. What I expect is a well thought-out,
complete discussion of the problem. Please don’t just put down a numerical answer; I want to see
how you did the problem. (You won’t get full credit for just numerical answers.) The method
you use, and your description of your work, is much more important to me than the final answer.
Presentations: There will be four presentations, each worth 15 points. The descriptions of the
presentations are in the Day By Day Notes. I will assign you to your groups for these
presentations, because I want to avoid you having the same members each time. I expect each
person in a group to contribute to the work; however, you can allocate the work in any way you
like. If a group member is not contributing, see me as soon as possible so I can make a decision
about what to do. The topics are: 1 – Data Displays (February 20). 2 – Probability (March 6). 3 –
Central Limit Theorem (April 22). 4 – Statistical Hypothesis Testing (May 13).
Office Hours: Office hours are times when I will be in my office to help you. There are many
other times when I am in my office. If I am in and not busy, I will be happy to help. My office
hours for Spring 2015 semester are 10:20 to 11:00 Tuesday, 2:00 to 3:00 Wednesday and Friday,
or by appointment.
Philosophy: I strongly believe that you, the student, are the only person who can make yourself
learn. Therefore, whenever it is appropriate, I expect you to discover the mathematics we will be
exploring. I do not feel that lecturing to you will teach you how to do mathematics. I hope to be
your guide while we learn some mathematics, but you will need to do the learning. I expect each
of you to come to class prepared to digest the day’s material. That means you will benefit most
by having read each section of the text and the Day By Day notes before class.
My idea of education is that one learns by doing. I believe that you must be engaged in the
learning process to learn well. Therefore, I view my job as a teacher not as telling you the
answers to the problems we will encounter, but rather pointing you in a direction that will allow
you to see the solutions yourselves. To accomplish that goal, I will find different interactive
activities for us to work on. Your job is to use me, your text, your friends, and any other
resources to become adept at the material.
2
Monday Wednesday Friday February 2 Day 1 Introduction February 4 Day 2 Random Sampling Section 1.1 February 6 Day 3 Graphical Summaries Section 1.2 February 9 Day 4 Graphical Summaries Section 1.2 February 11 Day 5 Numerical Summaries Sections 1.3 to 1.4 February 13 Day 6 Homework 1 Due Intro to Probability Sections 2.1 to 2.2 February 16 Day 7 Permutations, Combinations Section 2.3 February 18 Day 8 Permutations, Combinations Section 2.3 February 20 Day 9 Presentation 1 February 23 Day 10 Trees Section 2.4 February 25 Day 11 Homework 2 Due Bayes’, Independence Section 2.5 February 27 Day 12 Coins, Dice, and RV’s Sections 3.1 to 3.2 March 2 Day 13 RV’s and Expected Values Section 3.3 March 4 Day 14 Homework 3 Due Continuous Distributions Sections 4.1 to 4.2 March 6 Day 15 Presentation 2 March 9 Day 16 Exam 1 March 11 Day 17 Normal Section 4.3 March 13 Day 18 Normal Problems Section 4.3 March 16 Day 19 Gamma Section 4.4 March 18 Day 20 Probability Plots Section 4.6 March 20 Day 21 Homework 4 Due Binomial Section 3.4 March 30 Day 22 Binomial Section 3.4 April 1 Day 23 Hypergeometric Section 3.5 April 3 Day 24 Homework 5 Due Negative Binomial Section 3.5 April 6 Day 25 Normal Approx to Binomial Section 4.3 April 8 Day 26 Cauchy April 10 Day 27 Linear Combinations, Central Limit Theorem Section 5.3 April 13 Day 28 Homework 6 Due More CLT Sections 5.4 to 5.5 April 15 Day 29 Catch up Day Chapter 5 April 17 Days 30 and 31 Exam 2 [Testing Center] April 20 Day 32 Confidence Intervals Section 7.2 April 22 Day 33 Presentation 3 April 24 No Class April 27 Day 34 Intro to Hypothesis Testing Section 8.1 April 29 Day 35 Homework 7 due Z-­‐Procedures Sections 7.3 and 8.2 May 1 Day 36 Testing Simulations Section 8.4 May 4 Day 37 t-­‐procedures Section 8.2 May 6 Homework 8 Due More t-­‐procedures Section 8.2 May 8 Day 39 Proportions Sections 7.2 and 8.3 May 11 Day 40 Homework 9 Due Review May 13 Presentation 4 May 15 Day 42 3
m&m’s Section 7.1 Exam 3 Last updated January 10, 2015
4