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USDA Outlook for the
2010 U.S. Farm Economy
Ted Covey
Farm and Rural Business Branch
Resource and Rural Economics Division
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Value of agricultural sector production expected to
increase $7.9 billion in 2010
Billion Dollars
360
Value of agricultural sector production
310
260
Crop value of production
210
160
110
Livestock value of production
60
1991
1993
1995
1997
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Crop cash receipts expected to decline
$6 billion in 2010
2007
2008
2009f
2010f
Billion Dollars
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Fruits and
nuts
Vegetables
Greenhouse
and nursery
Cotton
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Lower average net cash incomes projected in 2010
for crop farm businesses
Thousand Dollars
275
2007
2008
2009f
2010f
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Mixed grain
Wheat
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Corn
Soybeans Cotton and
and peanuts
rice
Specialty
crops
Other Field
Crops
Source: USDA, ARMS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Livestock cash receipts expected to increase
$11.5 billion in 2010
Billion Dollars
2007
2008
2009f
2010f
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Cattle & Calves
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Hogs
Broilers
Dairy
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Average net cash income for livestock farm
businesses expected to recover in 2010
Thousand dollars
2007
2008
2009f
2010f
250
200
150
100
50
0
Beef cattle
Hogs
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Poultry
Dairy
Other Livestock
Source: USDA, ARMS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Government payments expected to decline
$0.5 billion in 2010
Billion Dollars
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
2007
2008
2009f
2010f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Farm production expenditures expected to
remain steady in 2010
Billion Dollars
300
Production expenditures
250
Purchased inputs
200
150
100
50
Capital consumption
Payments to stakeholders
Taxes and fees
0
2006
2007
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
2008
2009F
2010F
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Purchase inputs expenditures expected to
decline $0.1 billion in 2010
Billion Dollars
Farm Origin
Manufacturing
Other
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
2007
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
2008
2009f
2010f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Farm origin expenses expected to decline
$0.7 billion in 2010
Billion Dollars
Feed
Seed
Livestock and Poultry Purchased
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
2007
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
2008
2009f
2010f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Manufacturing input expenses expected to rise
$0.5 billion in 2010
Billion Dollars
Fertilizer and lime
Fuels and oils
Electricity
Pesticides
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
2008
2009f
2010f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Payments to stakeholders expected to fall
$0.5 billion in 2010
Hired Labor
Non-Operator Landlords
Lenders
Total Payments
Billion Dollars
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
2007
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
2008
2009f
2010f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Farm sector assets, debt and equity expected to
decline in 2010
Trillion Dollars
2.5
Debt
2.0
Equity
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1991
1993
1995
1997
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009f
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Share of farm assets financed by debt
expected to decline in 2010
Ratio
0.20
Debt/Asset
0.16
0.12
0.08
0.04
0.00
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009f
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Inflation-adjusted farm sector equity
peaked in 2007
Trillion Real Dollars
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1991
1993
1995
1997
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009f
Base Year 2005
GDP Chain-weighted Deflator
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Net Farm Income expected to rise in 2010
2010f
Change from 2009f
Value Agricultural Sector Production
$332.1
$7.9
Purchased Inputs
(-)
$187.2
$0
Net Government Transactions
(+)
($0.6)
($1.6)
=
$144.3
$6.4
(-)
$30.1
$0.2
=
$114.2
$6.1
(-)
$51.2
($0.5)
=
$63.0
$6.7
Gross Value Added
Capital Consumption
Net Value Added
Payments to Stakeholders
Net Farm Income
Note: Billion dollars
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts
Inflation-adjusted net farm income
peaked in 2004
Billion Real Dollars
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1991
1993
1995
1997
2010 USDA Outlook Forum
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009f
Base Year 2005
GDP Chain-weighted Deflator
Source: USDA, ERS
Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts