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USDA Outlook for the 2010 U.S. Farm Economy Ted Covey Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Value of agricultural sector production expected to increase $7.9 billion in 2010 Billion Dollars 360 Value of agricultural sector production 310 260 Crop value of production 210 160 110 Livestock value of production 60 1991 1993 1995 1997 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Crop cash receipts expected to decline $6 billion in 2010 2007 2008 2009f 2010f Billion Dollars 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Corn Soybeans Wheat 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Fruits and nuts Vegetables Greenhouse and nursery Cotton Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Lower average net cash incomes projected in 2010 for crop farm businesses Thousand Dollars 275 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Mixed grain Wheat 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Corn Soybeans Cotton and and peanuts rice Specialty crops Other Field Crops Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Livestock cash receipts expected to increase $11.5 billion in 2010 Billion Dollars 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Cattle & Calves 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Hogs Broilers Dairy Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Average net cash income for livestock farm businesses expected to recover in 2010 Thousand dollars 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 250 200 150 100 50 0 Beef cattle Hogs 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Poultry Dairy Other Livestock Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Government payments expected to decline $0.5 billion in 2010 Billion Dollars 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 2007 2008 2009f 2010f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Farm production expenditures expected to remain steady in 2010 Billion Dollars 300 Production expenditures 250 Purchased inputs 200 150 100 50 Capital consumption Payments to stakeholders Taxes and fees 0 2006 2007 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 2008 2009F 2010F Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Purchase inputs expenditures expected to decline $0.1 billion in 2010 Billion Dollars Farm Origin Manufacturing Other 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 2008 2009f 2010f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Farm origin expenses expected to decline $0.7 billion in 2010 Billion Dollars Feed Seed Livestock and Poultry Purchased 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 2008 2009f 2010f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Manufacturing input expenses expected to rise $0.5 billion in 2010 Billion Dollars Fertilizer and lime Fuels and oils Electricity Pesticides 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 2008 2009f 2010f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Payments to stakeholders expected to fall $0.5 billion in 2010 Hired Labor Non-Operator Landlords Lenders Total Payments Billion Dollars 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 2008 2009f 2010f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Farm sector assets, debt and equity expected to decline in 2010 Trillion Dollars 2.5 Debt 2.0 Equity 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Share of farm assets financed by debt expected to decline in 2010 Ratio 0.20 Debt/Asset 0.16 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.00 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009f 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Inflation-adjusted farm sector equity peaked in 2007 Trillion Real Dollars 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009f Base Year 2005 GDP Chain-weighted Deflator Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Net Farm Income expected to rise in 2010 2010f Change from 2009f Value Agricultural Sector Production $332.1 $7.9 Purchased Inputs (-) $187.2 $0 Net Government Transactions (+) ($0.6) ($1.6) = $144.3 $6.4 (-) $30.1 $0.2 = $114.2 $6.1 (-) $51.2 ($0.5) = $63.0 $6.7 Gross Value Added Capital Consumption Net Value Added Payments to Stakeholders Net Farm Income Note: Billion dollars 2010 USDA Outlook Forum Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts Inflation-adjusted net farm income peaked in 2004 Billion Real Dollars 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 2010 USDA Outlook Forum 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009f Base Year 2005 GDP Chain-weighted Deflator Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2009, 2010 forecasts