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GmbH Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research CESifo GmbH The CESifo group, consisting of the Center for Economic Studies (CES), the Ifo Institute and the CESifo GmbH (Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research) is a research association, unique in Europe, whose aim is to create an internationally respected centre for economic research and economicpolicy discussion. Its specific goals are: Members in the CESifo research network by region The four economic fields of Region North America Germany Rest of Europe (west and south) Scandinavian countries Others – to link empirical and theoretical economic research, – to lend economics a stronger voice in economicpolicy discussions, and in % the research network 25.84 23.68 34.69 12.68 3.11 Members in the CESifo research network according to research area – to build up a world-wide network of outstanding economists. Research area In the fourth year since its foundation, CESifo has made considerable progress in achieving these goals. The theoretical research at CES and the application orientation of the Ifo Institute were joined in numerous ways so that the quality of research output was further enhanced. These include research projects jointly undertaken by CES and Ifo economists, or the integration of Ifo staff in university teaching. This mutual exchange was intensified in 2001 by Viktor Steiner and Jan-Egbert Sturm who held professorships at CES and leadership positions at Ifo. In 2002 Rainer Fehn accepted a call as professor at the Ludwig Maximillians University combined with an advisory position to the Ifo department of Structural and Industrial Analyses. International Macroeconomics Public Sector Economics Microeconomics/Industrial Economics Social Policy/Labour Market Economics in % 24.90 38.30 22.00 14.80 Research Network All network researchers receive the English-language CESifo publications and are informed about current activities.The members of each research area have the opportunity to participate in the annual area conferences and in other conferences of the CESifo network. They are also involved in individual research projects among each other or with researchers at the Ifo Institute. In 2002 the CESifo research network expanded by 48 economists to a total of 418 members. Publications To contribute to the economic-policy discussion in Europe, CESifo has developed a series of publications. At the forefront is the CESifo Working Paper Series, which gives members the opportunity to make their work public in advance of final publication in international journals. In 2002, 200 Working Papers were published. These papers are sent by post to ca. 190 libraries and to the CESifo network members. They are also distributed online by SSRN (Social Science Research Network), to which more than 30,000 international researchers subscribe. Nearly all important working paper series and economic institutions in the world offer their products in SSRN. All the more remarkable that the CESifo Working Papers series was one of the most successful series in economics in Since the creation of a fourth research field (Microeconomics /Industrial Economics) 22 new members joined this area and 70 changed from the previous three areas. The areas are headed by Peter B. Sørensen (Copenhagen University) for Public Sector Economics, Jonas Agell (Stockholm University) for Social Policy /Labour Market Economics, Paul de Grauwe (Catholic University of Leuven) for International Macroeconomics, and Christian Gollier (Toulouse University) for Microeconomics /Industrial Economics. The area heads are economists of international standing who enhance the quality of the CESifo research network. 67 200 new publications Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities SSRN, ranking at the top in the top ten downloads of the Economics Research Institutes (including CEPR and NBER).The electronic distribution of the Working Papers has given the CESifo network an outstanding international position in a very short time. CESifo Tandem Programme Initiated in 2000, the tandem-programme research projects join an Ifo or CES economist with an internationally established external researcher for work on a book project. The CESifo Website makes available the research and service products of CES and Ifo on a uniform platform. With its products CESifo covers the entire palette of academic research from discussion of current policy issues up to the provision of empirical economic data. The Website offers not only publications but also videos of lectures, seminars and conferences. The CESifo Internet Forum organises live discussions on current economicpolicy issues.The discussions are hosted by top economists and promote CESifo’s goal of serving as a catalyst on ideas for the scientific community and transferring knowledge to policy-makers. Considerable headway was made in 2002 with the tandem-programme research projects. For a number of projects the first results were presented at workshops in Munich. This is the basis for manuscript completion and submission for the CESifo series at MIT Press. The topics include an analysis of European monetary policy and current economic-policy discussion of social security reform. The first publications will be in 2003. A series on CESifo conference papers is also pubR lished by MIT Press. E UROPEAN E CONOMY 2003 The international platform of Ludwig-Maximilians University s Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research EPORT EPORT ON THE CHAPTER 1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CHAPTER 2 Events FISCAL POLICY CHAPTER 3 SUBSIDIARITY The third CESifo Venice Summer Institute was organised around four topics: “Exchange Rate Modelling: Where do we Stand?”, “Measuring the Tax Burden on Labour and Capital”, “Banking Regulation” and “The Changing Organisation of Labour”. In total, 110 participants from 17 countries discussed issues such as the causes of euro’s exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of bank regulations reform. In a short period of time, the Summer Institute has established a firm place among international economics conferences and attracts top economists to Venice.The strong attendance at all four working sessions allowed for exciting and fruitful discussions with plentiful stimulus for the research of the participants. CHAPTER 4 FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE CHAPTER 5 BRAIN DRAIN At the beginning of 2002 the European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo published its first Report on the EuroEEAG pean Economy.The EEAG consists of the economists Lars Calmfors (Stockholm), Giancarlo Corsetti (Rome), John Flemming (Oxford), Seppo Honkapohja (Helsinki), John Kay (Oxford), Willi Leibfritz (OECD, Paris), Gilles Saint-Paul (Toulouse), Hans-Werner Sinn (CESifo) and Xavier Vives (INSEAD, Fontainebleau). This choice of members allows an effective transfer of academic research results to economic-policy deliberations. The second EEAG report was prepared in 2002 and appeared in February 2003. Both reports were presented to the international public at a press conference in Brussels and at additional press conferences in major European cities and met with widespread media coverage.The report is distributed to thousands of political institutions, associations, businesses and individuals. Here the Ifo Institute offers CESifo an important contribution by providing with its European economic forecast a strong framework for the economic-policy recommendations of the panel on various issues. LA R S C A L M F O R S University ofStockholm G IA N CA R L O C O R S E T T I(Chairman ) Università diRoma Tre JO H N FL E M M I N G W adham College , Oxford SE P P O H O N K A P O H JA ( ViceChairman ) University ofHelsinki JO H N K AY St. John’ s College , Oxford EUROPEAN ECONOMIC A DVISORY G ROUP AT W ILLL I EIBFRITZ OECD G IL L E SSA I N T- PA U L Université desSciences Sociales , Toulouse H A N S- WE R N E R SI NN ifoInstitut and Universität M ünchen X A V I E RV I V E S INSEAD Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 In addition to the Venice Summer Institute, CESifo organised a further 13 conferences that dealt with the questions of venture capital financing, globalisation and privatisation in Europe. The many conferences have brought the Ifo Institute in contract with a large number of economists and have strengthened Ifo's position as a leading service institution in economics.The individual conference topics were: 68 CESifo activities – Conference on Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications economic forum in Munich and to provide a German contribution to the integration of Europe. Munich was purposely chosen as conference venue to emphasise the outstanding position of Munich as a business location and research centre. – Area Conference on Marco, Money & International Finance – CESifo International Spring Conference: “Prospects for the European Economy” “Munich Economic Summit” founded ... Under the patronage of Bavaria’s Minister-President, Dr. Edmund Stoiber, more than 100 politicians, scholars and corporate leaders from 18 countries were invited to discuss the problems and challenges of the European integration process. Additional sponsors included Siemens AG, the HVB Group, Knorr-Bremse AG, Walter Bau AG and EON AG, the successor company of VIAG AG. – Area Conference on Industrial Organisation – Area Conference on Public Sector Economics – ISPE Conference on Labour Market Institutions and Public Regulation – Area Conference on Employment and Social Protection – Policy Modeling, Brussels In the first panel of the Summit Lord Ralf Dahrendorf, Guido Tabellini of Bocconi University Milan and Elmar Brok, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament, discussed the main problems in designing a new EU constitution. – Venice Summer Institute – Exchange Rate Modelling: Where do we Stand? – Measuring the Tax Burden on Labour and Capital – Banking Regulation In the second panel, chaired by John Major, Jack Boorman, Counsellor and Special Advisor at the International Monetary Fund, Maria Kadlecikova, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Slovakia, Lithuania’s President Valdas Adamkus and Günter Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for European Integration, discussed the political and economic requirements for integrating the EU’s new members. – The Changing Organisation of Labour – CESifo Delphi Conference on Managing EU Enlargement – Conference on Economics of Organisation and Corporate Government Structures – Conference on Globalization, Inequality and WellBeing ... in the first year:Topics on European enlargement Europe’s Path towards Innovation and Technology was the title of the third panel in which Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University, EU Commissioner Erkki Liikanen, Samuel A. DiPiazza, CEO of PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Munich publisher Hubert Burda examined how innovativeness and productivity in Europe can be improved. This panel was chaired by Edward G. Krubasik, Member of the Executive Board of Siemens AG. – Conference on Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship and Public Policy – Conference on Unemployment in Europe: Reasons and Remedies In the second year after its founding, the “Munich Seminars” again attracted the interest of practitioners, policy-makers and academics. In 2002 eleven top-ranking business and university experts were featured as speakers, addressing economic-policy oriented and general issues.The Süddeutsche Zeitung as co-sponsor of the Seminars publishes a review of each session. The last panel, chaired by Albrecht Schmidt, Spokesman of the Board of Managing Directors of the HVB Group examined the expansion of the European Monetary Union. After a theoretical introduction by Paul de Grauwe of the Catholic University of Leuven, Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke and the Governor of the Banque de France Jean-Claude Trichet had the A highlight of the work of CESifo GmbH is the Munich Economic Summit, inaugurated in 2002 by CESifo and the BMW Herbert Quandt Foundation. The goal of this annual conference is to establish an international 69 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities opportunity to discuss the problems and challenges of enlargement together with Leszek Balcerowicz, the President of the National Bank Of Poland. Guy Kirsch, University of Freiburg, Switzerland “Die Osterweiterung der EU – Integration oder Desintegration?”, 28 January 2002. The research cooperation supported by CESifo between the Ifo Institute and the Ludwig Maximilians University was mutually beneficial in 2002, and this positive development will continue to be promoted in 2003. Karl Homann, University of Munich (LMU) “Wirtschaft and Moral – Eine Neubestimmung ihres Verhältnisses”, 4 February 2002. Ignazio Angeloni, European Central Bank “Policy Devolution in the European Union:Theory and Evidence”, 22 April 2002. Joint Projects of the Ifo Institute and CES Completed in 2001: Lars Calmfors, Stockholm University “The Adjustment to Macroeconomic Shocks in the EMU”, 29 April 2002. Old-age Provision in Ageing Societies: Equity, Efficiency and Sustainability R. Fenge, M.Werding (Ifo Institute), S. Übelmesser (CES) in cooperation with the Brookings Institution,Wharton School /University of Pennsylvania (USA), Imperial College (UK), Frisch Centre for Economic Research (Norway), IIASA (Austria), Univ. of New South Wales (Australia), KDI (Korea), Univ. Kyoto, Univ. Tokyo, MRI (Japan), the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Government of Japan, April 2000 to March 2002, published as: CESifo Working Paper No. 743, CESifo Working Paper No. 841 and CESifo Working Paper No. 842. Wilhelm Simson, E.ON AG “Menschen als Gestalter der Globalisierung”, 6 May 2002. Jean Pisani-Ferry, Council of Economic Analysis, France and Université Paris-Dauphine “What Can be Learned from the Recent French Employment Experience?”, 10 June 2002. Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics “On the Feasibility of Risk Based Regulation”, 1 July 2002. Change in Corporate Strategies and Structures in Germany in Light of New Financial Instruments and I&C Technologies H.-G. Vieweg, M. Reinhard in cooperation with A. Weichenrieder, Center for Economic Studies (CES), University of Munich (LMU) for the Federal Ministry for the Economy and Labour, September 2000 to March 2002, published (in German) in: ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung,Vol. 11, 2003. Fiorella Kostoris Padoa Schioppa, Institute for Economic Studies and Analyses, Rome “Forecast on the Italian Economy and Public Finance”, 8 July 2002. Wolfgang Franz, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim “Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen an die künftige Bundesregierung”, 4 November 2002. Munich Seminars Kurt F.Viermetz, HypoVereinsbank “Die Konsequenzen der jüngsten Bilanzskandale auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks”, 18 November 2002. Francesco Giavazzi, IGIER, Università Bocconi, Milan “Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets”, 14 January 2002 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 Ferdinand Graf von Ballestrem, MAN AG “Veränderungen des Kapitalmarktes aus der Sicht eines Emittenten”, 2 December 2002. 70 CESifo activities CESifo Conferences CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money and International Finance Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications 18 – 20 January 2002 (Schloss Elmau). 8 – 9 February 2002 (Munich). Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland “Natural Resources and Economic Growth: the Role of Investment” Gylfi Zoega, Birkbeck College “Natural Resources, Inequality and Economic Growth” Burkhard Heer, University of Bamberg “Welfare Costs of Inflation in a Dynamic Economy with Search Unemployment” Campbell Leith, University of Glasgow “Wage Inequality and the Effort Incentive Effects of Technical Progress” Carsten Hefeker, Hamburgisches Welt-WirtschaftsArchiv (HWWA) “Common Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Shocks” Michael Keane,Yale University “Inequality Transfer and Growth: New Evidence from Economic Transition in Poland” Jim Malley, University of Glasgow “Estimated General Equilibrium Models for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy in the US and Europe” Oleksiy Ivaschenko, Goteborg University “Growth and Inequality: Evidence from Transitional Economies” Jan-Egbert Sturm, Ifo Institute, and Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen “Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU: New Evidence” Omar Moav, Hebrew University “Fertility Clubs and Economic Growth” Jean-Marie Viaene, Erasmus University “Human Capital Formation, Income Inequality and Growth” Mathias Hoffmann, University of Southampton, and Ronald MacDonald, University of Strathclyde “Real Exchange Rates and Real Differentials: An Integrated Perspective” Danny Quah, London School of Economics “Some Simple Arithmetic on How Income and Inequality Matter” Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California “Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments” François Bourguignon, DELTA and World Bank “Inequality, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction” Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven, and Marianna Grimaldi, University of Leuven “The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals. A Chaotic Perspective” Günther Rehme,Technische University of Darmstadt “Redistribution of Personal Incomes, Education and Economic Performance Across Countries” Marc Flandreau, OFCE, and John Komlos, University of Munich “How to Run a Target Zone? Age Old Lessons from the Austro-Hungarian Experiment (1896 – 1914)” Theo Eicher, University of Washington, Stephen Turnovsky, University of Washington and Maria Carne Riera Prunera, Barcelona University “The Impact of Tax Policy on Inequality and Growth:An Empirical and Theoretical Investigation” Michael Funke, University of Hamburg “Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Investment?” 71 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities CESifo MIT Book Workshop 11 February 2002 (Munich). Heinrich Blauert,The Association of Swedish Engineering Industry “Engineering Industry” Efraim Sadka, Tel-Aviv University, Assaf Razin, Tel-Aviv University, Chang Woon Nam, Ifo Institute “Labor Income Taxation, Capital Income Taxation, and Globalization” Jamal N. El Hout, General Motors Europe “Automobiles” CESifo MIT Book Workshop 22. February 2002 (Munich). CESifo Area Conference on Industrial Organisation 19 – 20 May 2002 (Munich). Mark Gradstein, Volker Meier, Ifo Institute “The Political Economy of Education and its Implications for Growth and Distribution” Bernard Salanie, CREST “Testing Contract Theory: A Survey of Some Recent Work” Sandro Brusco, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid “Reallocation of Corporate Resources and Managerial Incentives in Internal Capital Markets” CESifo International Spring Conference: “Prospects for the European Economy” 21 – 22. March 2002 (Munich). Gerhard O. Orosel, University of Vienna “Optimal Pricing and Endogenous Herding” Torsten Sloek, IMF “The United States in the World Economy” Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute “The European Economy” Laurent Linnemer, LEI – ENPC, Paris “When Backward Integration by a Dominant Firm Improves Welfare” Giancarlo Corsetti, Universita di Roma Tre “Policy Recommendations of the European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo” Kjell Erik Lommerud, University of Bergen “Downstream Merger with Oligopolistic Input Suppliers” Francois Ortalo-Magne, University of Wisconsin-Madison “Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence from England” Major Branches of European Industry Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute “Business Trends in EU Manufacturing Industry on the Basis of Business Surveys” Claude Crampes, University of Toulouse “Copying and Software Pricing” Malcolm Mitchell, BP Chemicals “Chemicals” Bruno Jullien, University of Toulouse “Competing in Network Industries: Divide and Conquer” Armand Sadler, Arcelor “Steel Industry” Achim Wambach, University Munich “Collusion in Beauty Contests” Dieter May, Infineon “Electronics” Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 72 CESifo activities Hans-Werner Sinn, University of Munich and Ifo Institute “Risk Taking, Limited Liability and the Competition of Bank Regulators” Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen “Start-ups,Venture Capitalists, and the Capital Gains Tax” Paolo Pantheghini, Università degli Studi di Brescia “Endogenous Timing and the Taxation of Discrete Investment Choices” Robert J. Gary-Bobo, Université de Cergy-Pontoise “A Structural Econometric Model of Price Discrimination in the Mortgage Lending Industry” Gregory Hess, Oberlin College “An Empirical Assessment of the Economic Welfare Cost of Conflict” Sven Rady, University of Munich “Strategic Experimentation:The Case of Poisson Bandits” Rainer Niemann, University of Tübingen “Neutral Taxation of Pensions in a Comprehensive Income Tax” CESifo Area Conference on Public Sector Economics 10 – 12 May 2002 (Munich). Andreas Haufler, University of Munich "Regional Tax Coordination and Foreign Direct Investment" Alessandro Cigno, University of Florence “Children and Pensions” Mark Gradstein, Ben-Gurion University, Beer-Sheva “Bargaining with Secession: Buchanan Meets Coase” Marcel Gérard, FUCAM, Mons “Interjurisdictional Company Taxation in Europe, the German Reform and the New EU Suggested Direction” Henning Bohn, University of California at Santa Barbara “Voting over Non-linear Taxes in a Stylized Representative Democracy” Wolfgang Eggert, University of Copenhagen “Information Sharing, Multiple Nash Equilibria, and Asymmetric Capital Tax Competition” Thiess Büttner, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim “The Dynamics of Municipal Fiscal Adjustment” Ruud de Mooij, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis “Tax Policy in a Model of Search with Training” Massimo Bordignon, University of Milan “In Search for Yardstick Competition: Property Tax Rates and Electoral Behavior in Italian Cities” Volker Grossmann, University of Zurich “Income Inequality, Voting over the Size of Public Consumption, and Growth” Clemens Fuest, University of Cologne “Tax Competition and Profit Shifting: On the Relationship between Personal and Corporate Tax Rates” Saku Aura, IGIER and IEP, Bocconi University “Does the Balance of Power within a Family Mater? The Case of the Retirement Equity Act” Kai Konrad, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin “Investment in the Absence of Property Rights: The Role of Incumbency Advantages” Dieter Bös, University of Bonn “Contests among Bureaucrats” Wolfgang Leininger, University of Dortmund “Contests over Public Goods: Evolutionary Stability and the Free-Rider Problem” Shmuel Nitzan, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan “Effort and Performance in Public-Policy Contests” 73 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities Tomer Blumkin,Tel Aviv University “Estate Taxation” Michael S. Michael, University of Cyprus, Nicosia “Reforms of Environmental Policies in the Presence of Cross-Border Pollution and Two-Stage Clean-Up” Pierre Pestieau, Université de Liège “Wealth Transfer Taxation with both Accidental and Planned Bequests” ISPE Conference on Labour Market Institutions and Public Regulation 2 – 4 June 2002 (Cadenabbia). Jeremy Edwards, University of Cambridge “Global Production Efficiency and Pareto-Efficient International Taxation” Coen Teulings, University of Rotterdam “Education, Income Distribution and Public Policy” Anna Pettini, University of Florence “Hidden Information Problems in the Design of Family Allowances” William Scarth, McMaster University, Ontario, and Thomas Moutos, Athens University of Economics and Business “Some Macroeconomic Consequences of Basic Income and Employment Subsidies” Efraim Sadka,Tel Aviv University “Political Economics of Capital Income Taxation with Ageing Population” Maria Laura Parisi, University of Padua “Labor Taxes, Wage Setting and the Relative Wage Effect” Matthias Wrede,Technische Hochschule Aachen “Small States, Large Unitary States, and Federations” Michael Keen, International Monetary Fund “Institutions for Global Tax Cooperation” Laszlo Goerke, University of Constance “The Economics of Employment Protection: Dismissal Pay for Individual and Collective Redundancies” Martin Kolmar, University of Constance “Endogenously Excludable Goods” Rafael Lalive, University of Zurich “Benefit Entitlement and the Labor Market: Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Change” Danny Cohen-Zada, Ben-Gurion University “Preserving Religious Values Through Education” Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 Emmanuel Saez, University of California at Berkely “Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Response” CESifo Area Conference on Employment and Social Protection 14 –15 June 2002 (Munich). David K. Miles, Imperial College Management School, London “Optimal Social Security Design” Rebecca Blank, University of Michigan “The Lessons from US Welfare Reform” Wolfram Richter, University of Dortmund “Trading Off Tax Distortion and Tax Evasion” Simon Gächter, University of St. Gallen “Do Incentive Contracts Undermine Voluntary Cooperation?” Laslo Goerke, University of Constance “Fiscal Policy, Economic Integration and Unemployment” Kai Konrad, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin “Human Capital Investment and Globalization in Extortionary States” 74 CESifo activities José Rodriguez Mora, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona “A Positive Theory of Geographic Mobility and Social Insurance” Geir Bjonnes, Stockholm Institute for Financial Research, Dagfinn Rime, Central Bank of Norway, and Haakon Solheim, Norwegian School of Management “Volume, Order Flow and the FX Market: Does It Matter Who You Are?” Josef Zweimuller, University of Zurich “The Effect of Benefit Sanction on the Duration of Unemployment” Mark Taylor, Warwick University “Modelling and Forecasting Real and Nominal Exchange Rates – Where Do We Stand?” Torben Tranaes, Danish National Institute of Social Research and EPRU, Copenhagen “Voluntary Public Unemployment Insurance” Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven “Heterogeneity of Agents and the Exchange Rate. A Non-Linear Approach” Assar Lindbeck, Stockholm University “The Gains from Pension Reform” Volker Böhm, University of Bielefeld “Dynamics of Endogenous Business Cycles and Exchange Rate Volatility” Friedrich Breyer, University of Constance “Incentives to Retire Later – A Solution to the Social Security Crisis?” Andrea Ichino, European University Fiesole “Absenteeism, Gender and Biological Diversity” Phornchanok Cumperayot, Erasmus University, Rotterdam “Modelling Currency Prices with Fundamental Volatility” Kjell Erik Lommerud, University of Bergen “Unionized Oligopoly, Trade Liberalization and Location Choice” Michael Moore, Queen’s University Belfast “Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates without the Contrivance of Sticky Prices” Nils Gottfries, Uppsala University “Exchange Rate Policy, Labor Market Conditions and Wage Adjustment in the Open Economy” Gianluca Benigno, London School of Economics “Exchange Rate Determination under Interest Rate Rules” Dan Anderberg, University of Stirling “An Equilibrium Analysis of Marriage, Divorce and RiskSharing” Hans-Werner Sinn, University of Munich and Ifo Institute, and Frank Westermann, University of Munich “The Euro, Eastern Europe and Black Markets: The Currency Hypothesis” CESifo Venice Summer Institute 13 – 20 Juli 2002 (San Servolo). Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California “Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive” Exchange Rate Modelling:Where Do We Stand? 13–14 July 2002 Mariam Camarero, Jaume J. University, Castellon “The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is It Fundamental?” Richard Lyons, University of California at Berkeley “Are Different Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?” Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics “Liquidity Determination in an Order Driven Market” 75 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities Measuring the Tax Burden on Capital and Labour 15 – 16 July 2002 Gaetan Nicodeme, European Commission “Sector and Size Effects on Effective Corporate Taxation” Michael P. Devereux, University of Warwick “Measuring Taxes on Income from Capital” Banking Regulation and Financial Stability 17 – 18 July 2002 Julian Alworth, ETPA, Milano, and Giampaolo Arachi, Università Luigi Bocconi “An Integrated Approach to Measuring Effective Tax Rates” Jean Charels Rochet, University of Toulouse “Why Are There so Many Banking Crisis?” Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics “On the Feasibility of Risk Based Regulation” David Carey, OECD “Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption” Misa Tanaka, University of Oxford “How Do Bank Capital and Capital Adequacy Regulation Affect the Monetary Trans-mission Mechanism?” Roger Gordon, University of California, San Diego, Laura Kalambokidis, University of Minnesota, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan Business School “If Capital Income Taxes are so High, Why Do We Collect so Little Revenue – New Summary Measure of the Effective Tax Rate on Investment” Jan Wenzelburger, University of Bielefeld “Banking and the Macroeconomy” Stephanie Stolz, University of Kiel “Banking Supervision in Integrated Financial markets: Implications for the EU” Steven Clark, OECD “The ‘Taxing Wages’ Approach to Measuring the Tax Burden on Labour” Cornelia Holthausen, European Central Bank “Cooperation in International Banking Supervision: A Political Economy Approach” Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen, and JanEgbert Sturm, Ifo Institute “How To Measure the Tax Burden on Labour?” Marc Quintyn, International Monetary Fund “Regulatory and Supervisory Independence and Financial Stability” James R. Hines, University of Michigan Business School “Measuring Taxes on International Investment – What Taxes are Relevant?” Gabriela Mundaca, University of Oslo “Moral Hazard Effects of Bailing out under Asymmetric Information” Harry Grubert, U. S.Treasury Dept. “The Tax Burden on Cross-Border Investment: Company Strategies and Government Responses” Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements “Towards a Macro-Prudential Framework for Financial Supervision and Regulation?” Kirk Collins, University of Ottawa “Measuring Effective Tax Rates on Human Capital:The Canadian Case” Giovanni Majnoni,The World Bank “Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Slowdowns: Too Much,Too Late?” Steven Clark, OECD “Using Micro-Data to Assess Average Effective Tax Rates” Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 Martin Summer, Österreichische Nationalbank “The Risk of Interbank Credits: A New Approach to the Assessment of Systematic Risk” 76 CESifo activities Lieven Baele, University of Gent “The Effect of Diversification and Capitalization on Bank Credit Risk? Evidence from Bank Stock Market Returns” Christoph Lülfesmann, University of Bonn “The Theory of Human Capital Revisited: On the Interaction of General and Specific Investments” Armin Falk, University of Zurich “The Limits and Power of Tournament Incentives” The Changing Organisation of Labour 19 – 20 July 2002 CESifo Delphi Conference on Managing EU Enlargement 13 – 14 September 2002 (Delphi). W. Bentley MacLeod, University of Southern California “The Employment Contract and the Organization of Labor in Europe” Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen “Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries” Florian Englmaier, University of Munich “Contracts and Inequality Aversion” Karl Warneryd, Stockholm School of Economics “Distributional Conflict in Organizations” Ruud de Mooij, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis “EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries” Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics “Across to Credit Risk Taking and Organizational Change” Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen “Taxation of a Venture Capitalist with a Portfolio of Firms” Antonis Adam, Athens University of Economics and Business, and Thomas Moutos, Athens University of Economics and Business “The Political Economy of EU Enlargement: Or, Why Is Japan not a Candidate Country?” Stergios Skaperdas, University of California at Irvine “All in the Family or Public? Law and Appropriative Costs as Determinants of Owners Structure” Jerome Stein, Brown University, Providence “The Effect of Enlargement upon the Equilibrium Value of the Euro” Dorothea Kübler, Humboldt University, Berlin “Social Norms and Incentives in Firms” Daniel Gros, Center for European Policy Studies, Brussels “Who Needs an External Anchor?” Jon Strand, University of Oslo “The Decline or Expansion of Unions: A Bargaining Model with Heterogeneous Labor” Helge Berger, International Monetary Fund, and Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen “Should the ECB Be Restructured, and if so, How?” Volker Grossmann, University of Zurich “Workplace in the Primary Economy and Wage Pressure in the Secondary Labor Market” Tobias Müller, University of Geneva “The Political Economy of Migration and EU Enlargement: Lessons from Switzerland” Sengupta Sarbajit, University of Southern California “Delegating Recruitment under Asymmetric Information” Michael Burda, Humboldt University, Berlin “On the Dynamics of factor Mobility and Regional Economic Integration” 77 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities CESifo MIT Book Workshop 16 October 2002 (Munich). Jörg Baten, University of Tübingen “Did Partial Globalization Increase Inequality? Did Inequality Stimulate Globalization Backlash? The Case of the Latin American Periphery, 1950 – 2000” Richard Arnott, and Ronnie Schöb, University of Magdeburg “Alleviating Traffic Congestion” John Serieux, University of North Carolina “Riding the Elephants: World Output Growth and the Distribution of World Income in the Last Decade of the 20th Century” CESifo Conference on the Economics of Organisation and Corporate Governance Structures 25 – 26 October 2002 (Munich). Vivek H. Dehejia, Carleton University, Ottawa “Trade and Labour Standards Theory, New Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications” Robert Chirinko, Emory University, and Elmer Sterken, University of Groningen “Investor Protections and Concentrated Ownership Assessing Corporate Control Mechanisms in the Netherlands” Raymond Riezman, University of Iowa “How Often Are Propositions on the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Theoretical Curiosa and When Should They Guide Policy” Alfons J.Weichenrieder, University of Frankfurt /Main “Ownership Concentration and Share Valuation” Andrea Cornia, University of Florence “The impact of Liberalisation and Globalisation on Income Inequality in the Developing and Transitional Economies” Thomas Pfeiffer, University of Vienna “Information Systems, Bargaining Power and Specific Investments” Syed Ahsan, Concordia University, Montreal “Inequality,Well-Being and Institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean” Sabine Böckem, University of Dortmund, and Ulf Schiller, University of Tübingen “Transfer Pricing. Hold-ups, and Double Marginalization in Supply Chains” Harold James, Princeton University “Financial Flows, Inequality and Backlashes against Globalization?” Christa Hainz, University of Munich “Are Transition Countries Overbanked?” Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 Alessandro Cigno, University of Florence “Does Globalisation Increase Child Labour?” CESifo Conference on Globalisation, Inequality and Well-Being 8 – 9 November 2002 (Munich). Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland “Education, Social Equality and economic Growth: A View of the Landscape” Tony Atkinson, Nuffield College, Oxford “Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Data and Explanations” Surjit Bhalla, Oxus Research and Investments, New Delhi “Poor Results? Examining Estimates of Global Inequality and Poverty” Stephan Klasen, University of Munich, and Carola Grün, University of Munich “Growth, Income Distribution, and Well-Being: Comparisons across Space and Time” Robert Hunter Wade, London School of Economics “Globalization, Poverty and Income Distribution: Does the Liberal Argument Hold?” 78 CESifo activities CESifo Conference on Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship, and Public Policy 22 – 23 November 2002 (Munich). Harvey S. Rosen, Princeton University “Entrepreneurship and Taxation: Empirical Evidence” Ayi Ayayi, Ryerson University “Good News, Bad News: Ten Years’ Lessons from the Canadian Labour-Sponsored Venture Capital Corporations” Laura Botazzi, Bocconi University, Milan, and Marco Da Rin,Turin University “Financing Entrepreneurial Firms in Europe: Facts, Issues, and Research Agenda” Ari Hyytinen, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy “How Important Are Exits for Venture Capital Finance? Evidence from Finland” Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen, and Søren Bo Nielsen, Copenhagen Business School “Public Policy for Start-up Entrepreneurship with Venture Capital and Bank Finance” Masako Ueda, University of Wisconsin “Venture Capital and Productivity” Douglas J. Cumming, University of Alberta “Comparative Venture Capital Governance: Private versus Labour Sponsored Capital Funds” CESifo MIT-Book Workshop 5 December 2002 (Munich). Robin Boadway, Queen's University, Kingston “Information Problems in Start-up Entrepreneurship: The Public Finance View” Pierre Pestieau, and Robert Fenge, Ifo Institute “Social Security and Retirement” Clemens Fuest, University of Cologne “Tax Policy and Entrepreneurship in the Presence of Asymmetric Information in Capital Markets” CESifo Conference on Unemployment in Europe: Reasons and Remedies 6 – 7 December 2002 (Munich). Allen Frankel, Bank for International Settlements “IT Innovations and Financing Patterns: Implications for the Financial System” Stephen J. Nickell, Bank of England “A Picture of European Unemployment: Success and Failure” Thomas Hellmann, Standford University “Determinants of the Venture Capital Industry: A Financial Economics Perspective” Jean Pisani-Ferry, French Ministry for Economy, Finance and Industry “Employment and Unemployment in France: What Lessons?” Ansgar Belke, University of Hohenheim, Rainer Fehn, Ifo Institute, and Neil Foster, University of Vienna “Venture Capital Investment and Labor Market Performance: A Panel Data Analysis” Rainer Fehn, Ifo Institute “Unemployment in Germany: Reasons and Remedies” Mirjam van Praag, University of Amsterdam “Entrepreneurial Venture Performance and Initial Capital Constraints: An Empirical Analysis” Jan C. van Ours,Tilburg University “Rising Unemployment at the Start of the 21st Century: Has the Dutch Miracle Come to an End?” Thomas Gehrig, University of Freiburg, and Rune Stenbacka, University of Helsinki “Venture Cycles:Theory and Evidence” Brendan Walsh, University College Dublin “When Unemployment Disappears: Ireland in the 1990s” 79 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities Munich Economic Summit Christopher Pissarides, London School of Economics “Unemployment in Britain: An European Success Story” 7 – 8 June 2002 (Munich). Horst Teltschik, Herbert Quandt Stiftung, Munich and Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute Opening of the conference Edmund S. Phelps, Columbia University “Europe’s High Unemployment: Possible Fur ther Causes and their Mechanism” Edmund Stoiber, Bavaraian Minister-President Keynote Address Giuseppe Bertola, European University Institute, Fiesole “The History and Structure of Italian Unemployment” Panel 1 Ralf Dahrendorf, London School of Economics, Guido Tabellini, Bocconi University; Milan, Isabel Tocino, Madrid, Elmar Brok, Europaen Parliament, “Principles of Policy Making in a Larger Europe: What Constitution Fits the Union” Roope Uusitalo, Uppsala University, and Erkki Koskela, Helsinki University “The Unintented Convergence: How the Finnish Unemployment Reached the European Level” Panel 2 John Major, former British Prim Minister, Jack Boorman, IMF, Washington, DC, Valdas Adamkus, President of Lithuania, Günter Verheugen, European Commission, Janez Drnovsek, Prime Minister of Slovenia, Maria Kadlecikova, Ministry of European Integration, Slovakia “Challenges Ahead: Integrating Europe’s New Members” Torben Andersen, University of Aarhus “From Excess to Shortage – Recent Developments in the Danish Labour Market” Bertil Holmlund, Uppsala University “The Rise and Fall of Swedish Unemployment” Samuel Bentolila, CEMFI, Madrid “Spanish Unemployment:The End of the Wild Ride?” Panel 3 Edward G. Krubasik, Siemens AG, Munich, Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University, Erkki Liikanen, European Commission, Samuel A. DiPiazza, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Hubert Burda, Hubert Burda Verlag “Europe’s Path towards Innovation and Technology” Panel 4 Albrecht Schmidt, Bayerische Hypo- and Vereinsbank, Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven, Jean-Claude Trichet, Banque de France, Ernst Welteke, Deutsche Bundesbank, Leszek Balcerowicz, National Bank of Poland “The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged Europe” Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 80 CESifo activities CESifo publications Research Reports Why Do Jobless rates Differ? The Support of the Euro in the Fifteen EU Countries – Politics and Economics CESifo Forum Spring 2002 Focus: Company Taxation and the Internal Market European Company Tax Reform: prospects for the Future (Jack M. Mintz) WES World Economic Survey Trends Statistical update Formulary Apportionment and the Future of Company Taxation in the European Union (Joann Martens Weiner) Summer 2002 Introduction Europe after Enlargement (Horst Teltschik, Hans-Werner Sinn) Roundtable Discussion on the European Commission’s Study on Company Taxation Conference on Corporate and Capital Income Taxation in the European Union (Matthias Mors) Keynote Address Redefining the Interest, the Identity and the Role of an Enlarged Union (Edmund Stoiber) Home State Taxation versus Common Base Taxation (Silvia Giannini) Panel 1 Principles of Policy Making in a Larger Europe: What Constitution Fits the Union? (Guido Tabellini, Elmar Brok) To Harmonise or not to Harmonise? (Peter Birch Sørensen) The Pros and Cons of Formulary Apportionment (Emil M. Sunley) Panel 2 Challenges Ahead: Integrating Europe’s New Members (Jack Boorman, Valdas Adamkus, Günter Verheugen, Maria Kadlecikova) Further Research Needed on Comprehensive Approaches (Marcel Gérard) Keynote Address A Look at the World as It Is and How It Will Be – and at our Place within It (John Major) Pro and Contra: Food Safety Through More Regulation? Pro: Food Legislation Must Be Effective and Efficient (David Byrne) Panel 3 Europe’s Path towards Innovation and Technology (Dale Jorgenson, Erkki Liikanen, Samuel A. DiPiazza) Contra: Food Safety and Market Forces (John E. Calfee) Panel 4 The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged Europe (Paul de Grauwe, Jean-Claude Trichet, Ernst Welteke, Leszek Balcerowicz) Special Stability, Subsidiarity and Sustainability Spotlights Women Dominate Part-time Work Keynote Address The World after September 11 (Lee Kwan Yew) The Triad Accounts for Four-fifths of Global FDI Outflows and Outwards Stocks WES World Economic Survey 81 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 CESifo activities Trends Statistical update Winter 2002 Focus: Subsidiarity Subsidiarity, Governance, and EU Economic Policy (Robert P. Inman and Daniel L. Rubinfeld) Autumn 2002 Focus: Corporate Governance Corporate Governance (Alan Greenspan) Subsidiarity and the Debate on the Future of Europe (Giovanni Grevi) Corporate Governance and Shareholder Value: How Did We Get Here and Where Are We Going? (Fred R. Kaen) Pro and Contra: Should the EU Have a President with Two Hats? Yes (Ben Crum) No (Elmar Brok) Corporate Governance in the UK – Contrasted with the US System (Julian Franks and Colin Mayer) Special Does Sales-only Apportionment of Corporate Income Violate International Trade Rules? The Monetary Policy of the ECB and Automatic Stabilizers: Will They Work? Power, Rent Extraction, and Executive Compensation (Lucian Bebchuk and Jesse Fried) Pro and Contra: National Accounting Rules in a Globalised World Should the World Embrace a Single Set of Accounting Standards? (Robert E. Litan) Spotlights Older Workers – a Neglected Employment Potential Weak Demand for Credit, but also Weak Supply The Best of Both Worlds (Hanno Merkt) DICE Reports Work Lost Due to Illness – an International Comparison Special The Euro in Central and Eastern Europe – Survey Evidence from Five Countries WES World Economic Survey Poland’s Road to the Euro: A Review of Options Trends Statistical update Spotlights Electric Energy Exchange Gain in Importance Another Oil Price Spike? Temporary Agency Employment in the European Union EEAG European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo Report on the European Economy 2002 (G. Corsetti, University of Rome, J. Flemming, Wadham College, Oxford, S. Honka-pohja, University of Helsinki, W. Leibfritz, OECD, G. Saint-Paul, University of Toulouse, H.-W. Sinn, Ifo Institute, X. Vives, INSEAD, Fontainebleau) DICE Reports Results of PISA 2000:The Case of Germany WES World Economic Survey – The European Economy: Current Situation and Economic Outlook Trends Statistical update – The Weakness of the Euro; Is It Really a Mystery? – Fiscal and Monetary Policy Ifo Annual Repor t 2002 82 CESifo activities – Prices, Wages and Inflation after the Euro – What Europeans Should or Should not Expect Weber’s Law and the Biological Evolution of Risk Preferences:The Selective Domi-nance of the Logarithmic Utility Function H.-W. Sinn, September 2002. – Growth and Productivity – Welfare to Work CAP Reform International Comparisons and Transfer of Labour Market Institutions W. Ochel, October 2002. CESifo Working Papers by researchers of the Ifo Institute and CESifo Social Security Reform and Intergenerational Trade: Is there Scope for a Pareto-Improvement? M. Köthenbürger and P. Poutvaara, October 2002. Corruption and the Shadow Economy J. P. Choi and M.Thum, January 2002. Distortionary Domestic Taxation and Pareto-Efficient International Trade J. Edwards and R. Schöb, January 2002. On the Partial Public Provision of a Private Good R. Jayaraman, December 2002. Deregulation, Entry of Foreign Banks and Bank Efficiency in Australia J.-E. Sturm and B. Williams, December 2002. IMF Credit: How Important Are Political Factors? A Robustness Analysis J.-E. Sturm, H. Berger and J. de Haan, January 2002. Lessons of the 1999 Abolition of Intra-EU Duty Free Sales for Eastern European EU Candidates A. Gebauer, Ch. W. Nam and R. Parsche, December 2002. Venture Capital Investment and Labor Market Performance: A Panel Data Analysis A. Belke, R. Fehn and N. Foster, January 2002. Significance of Development Stage Theory for Explaining Industrial Growth Pattern between Asian NICs and Selected Advanced Economies Ch. W. Nam, February 2002. In 2002 more than 200 CESifo Working Papers were published and distributed to the members of the network. Workfare in an Efficiency Wage Model V. Meier, February 2002. Insurance in a Market for Credence Goods K. Sülzle and A. Wambach, February 2002. Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP G. Flaig, March 2002. Second-best Properties of Implicit Social Security Taxes: Theory and Evidence R. Fenge, S. Übelmesser and M. Werding, June 2002. Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation A.Tornell and F. Westermann, July 2002. 83 Ifo Annual Repor t 2002