Download PDF Download

GmbH
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research
CESifo GmbH
The CESifo group, consisting of the Center for Economic Studies (CES), the Ifo Institute and the CESifo
GmbH (Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research) is a research association, unique in
Europe, whose aim is to create an internationally respected centre for economic research and economicpolicy discussion. Its specific goals are:
Members in the CESifo
research network by region
The four economic fields of
Region
North America
Germany
Rest of Europe (west and south)
Scandinavian countries
Others
– to link empirical and theoretical economic research,
– to lend economics a stronger voice in economicpolicy discussions, and
in %
the research network
25.84
23.68
34.69
12.68
3.11
Members in the CESifo research
network according to research area
– to build up a world-wide network of outstanding
economists.
Research area
In the fourth year since its foundation, CESifo has made
considerable progress in achieving these goals. The
theoretical research at CES and the application orientation of the Ifo Institute were joined in numerous
ways so that the quality of research output was further
enhanced. These include research projects jointly
undertaken by CES and Ifo economists, or the integration of Ifo staff in university teaching. This mutual
exchange was intensified in 2001 by Viktor Steiner and
Jan-Egbert Sturm who held professorships at CES and
leadership positions at Ifo. In 2002 Rainer Fehn accepted a call as professor at the Ludwig Maximillians
University combined with an advisory position to the
Ifo department of Structural and Industrial Analyses.
International Macroeconomics
Public Sector Economics
Microeconomics/Industrial Economics
Social Policy/Labour Market Economics
in %
24.90
38.30
22.00
14.80
Research Network
All network researchers receive the English-language
CESifo publications and are informed about current
activities.The members of each research area have the
opportunity to participate in the annual area conferences and in other conferences of the CESifo network.
They are also involved in individual research projects
among each other or with researchers at the Ifo
Institute.
In 2002 the CESifo research network expanded by
48 economists to a total of 418 members.
Publications
To contribute to the economic-policy discussion in
Europe, CESifo has developed a series of publications.
At the forefront is the CESifo Working Paper Series,
which gives members the opportunity to make their
work public in advance of final publication in international journals. In 2002, 200 Working Papers were
published. These papers are sent by post to ca. 190
libraries and to the CESifo network members. They
are also distributed online by SSRN (Social Science
Research Network), to which more than 30,000 international researchers subscribe. Nearly all important
working paper series and economic institutions in the
world offer their products in SSRN. All the more
remarkable that the CESifo Working Papers series was
one of the most successful series in economics in
Since the creation of a fourth research field (Microeconomics /Industrial Economics) 22 new members joined
this area and 70 changed from the previous three areas.
The areas are headed by Peter B. Sørensen (Copenhagen University) for Public Sector Economics, Jonas
Agell (Stockholm University) for Social Policy /Labour
Market Economics, Paul de Grauwe (Catholic University of Leuven) for International Macroeconomics, and
Christian Gollier (Toulouse University) for Microeconomics /Industrial Economics. The area heads are
economists of international standing who enhance the
quality of the CESifo research network.
67
200 new publications
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
SSRN, ranking at the top in the top ten downloads of
the Economics Research Institutes (including CEPR
and NBER).The electronic distribution of the Working
Papers has given the CESifo network an outstanding
international position in a very short time.
CESifo Tandem Programme
Initiated in 2000, the tandem-programme research
projects join an Ifo or CES economist with an internationally established external researcher for work on a
book project.
The CESifo Website makes available the research and
service products of CES and Ifo on a uniform platform.
With its products CESifo covers the entire palette of
academic research from discussion of current policy
issues up to the provision of empirical economic data.
The Website offers not only publications but also videos
of lectures, seminars and conferences.
The CESifo Internet Forum organises
live discussions on current economicpolicy issues.The discussions are hosted
by top economists and promote CESifo’s
goal of serving as a catalyst on ideas for
the scientific community and transferring
knowledge to policy-makers.
Considerable headway was made in 2002 with the
tandem-programme research projects. For a number
of projects the first results were presented at workshops in Munich. This is the basis for manuscript completion and submission for the CESifo series at MIT
Press. The topics include an analysis of European
monetary policy and current economic-policy discussion of social security reform. The first
publications will be in 2003. A series on
CESifo conference papers is also pubR
lished by MIT Press.
E UROPEAN E CONOMY 2003
The international platform of Ludwig-Maximilians University s Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research
EPORT
EPORT ON THE
CHAPTER 1
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
CHAPTER 2
Events
FISCAL POLICY
CHAPTER 3
SUBSIDIARITY
The third CESifo Venice Summer
Institute was organised around four
topics: “Exchange Rate Modelling:
Where do we Stand?”, “Measuring the
Tax Burden on Labour and Capital”,
“Banking Regulation” and “The Changing
Organisation of Labour”. In total, 110
participants from 17 countries discussed issues such as the causes of euro’s
exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of bank
regulations reform. In a short period of time, the
Summer Institute has established a firm place among
international economics conferences and attracts top
economists to Venice.The strong attendance at all four
working sessions allowed for exciting and fruitful discussions with plentiful stimulus for the research of the
participants.
CHAPTER 4
FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
CHAPTER 5
BRAIN DRAIN
At the beginning of 2002 the European
Economic Advisory Group at CESifo
published its first Report on the EuroEEAG
pean Economy.The EEAG consists of the
economists Lars Calmfors (Stockholm),
Giancarlo Corsetti (Rome), John Flemming (Oxford), Seppo Honkapohja
(Helsinki), John Kay (Oxford), Willi Leibfritz (OECD,
Paris), Gilles Saint-Paul (Toulouse), Hans-Werner Sinn
(CESifo) and Xavier Vives (INSEAD, Fontainebleau).
This choice of members allows an effective transfer
of academic research results to economic-policy deliberations. The second EEAG report was prepared in
2002 and appeared in February 2003. Both reports
were presented to the international public at a press
conference in Brussels and at additional press conferences in major European cities and met with
widespread media coverage.The report is distributed
to thousands of political institutions, associations,
businesses and individuals. Here the Ifo Institute offers
CESifo an important contribution by providing with
its European economic forecast a strong framework
for the economic-policy recommendations of the
panel on various issues.
LA R S C A L M F O R S
University
ofStockholm
G IA N CA R L O C O R S E T T I(Chairman
)
Università
diRoma Tre
JO H N FL E M M I N G
W adham College
, Oxford
SE P P O H O N K A P O H JA ( ViceChairman
)
University
ofHelsinki
JO H N K AY
St.
John’
s College
, Oxford
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC
A DVISORY G ROUP AT
W
ILLL
I EIBFRITZ
OECD
G IL L E SSA I N T- PA U
L
Université
desSciences
Sociales
, Toulouse
H A N S- WE R N E R SI NN
ifoInstitut
and Universität
M ünchen
X A V I E RV I V E S
INSEAD
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
In addition to the Venice Summer Institute, CESifo
organised a further 13 conferences that dealt with the
questions of venture capital financing, globalisation and
privatisation in Europe. The many conferences have
brought the Ifo Institute in contract with a large number
of economists and have strengthened Ifo's position as
a leading service institution in economics.The individual conference topics were:
68
CESifo activities
– Conference on Growth and Inequality: Issues and
Policy Implications
economic forum in Munich and to provide a German
contribution to the integration of Europe. Munich was
purposely chosen as conference venue to emphasise
the outstanding position of Munich as a business location
and research centre.
– Area Conference on Marco, Money & International
Finance
– CESifo International Spring Conference: “Prospects
for the European Economy”
“Munich Economic Summit”
founded ...
Under the patronage of Bavaria’s Minister-President,
Dr. Edmund Stoiber, more than 100 politicians, scholars
and corporate leaders from 18 countries were invited
to discuss the problems and challenges of the European integration process. Additional sponsors included
Siemens AG, the HVB Group, Knorr-Bremse AG, Walter Bau AG and EON AG, the successor company of
VIAG AG.
– Area Conference on Industrial Organisation
– Area Conference on Public Sector Economics
– ISPE Conference on Labour Market Institutions and
Public Regulation
– Area Conference on Employment and Social
Protection
– Policy Modeling, Brussels
In the first panel of the Summit Lord Ralf Dahrendorf,
Guido Tabellini of Bocconi University Milan and Elmar
Brok, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs
of the European Parliament, discussed the main problems in designing a new EU constitution.
– Venice Summer Institute
– Exchange Rate Modelling: Where do we Stand?
– Measuring the Tax Burden on Labour and Capital
– Banking Regulation
In the second panel, chaired by John Major, Jack
Boorman, Counsellor and Special Advisor at the International Monetary Fund, Maria Kadlecikova, Deputy
Prime Minister for European Integration, Slovakia,
Lithuania’s President Valdas Adamkus and Günter
Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for European Integration, discussed the political and economic requirements for integrating the EU’s new members.
– The Changing Organisation of Labour
– CESifo Delphi Conference on Managing EU
Enlargement
– Conference on Economics of Organisation and
Corporate Government Structures
– Conference on Globalization, Inequality and WellBeing
... in the first year:Topics
on European enlargement
Europe’s Path towards Innovation and Technology was
the title of the third panel in which Dale Jorgenson,
Harvard University, EU Commissioner Erkki Liikanen,
Samuel A. DiPiazza, CEO of PricewaterhouseCoopers
and the Munich publisher Hubert Burda examined
how innovativeness and productivity in Europe can
be improved. This panel was chaired by Edward
G. Krubasik, Member of the Executive Board of
Siemens AG.
– Conference on Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship
and Public Policy
– Conference on Unemployment in Europe: Reasons
and Remedies
In the second year after its founding, the “Munich
Seminars” again attracted the interest of practitioners,
policy-makers and academics. In 2002 eleven top-ranking business and university experts were featured as
speakers, addressing economic-policy oriented and
general issues.The Süddeutsche Zeitung as co-sponsor
of the Seminars publishes a review of each session.
The last panel, chaired by Albrecht Schmidt, Spokesman of the Board of Managing Directors of the HVB
Group examined the expansion of the European Monetary Union. After a theoretical introduction by Paul de
Grauwe of the Catholic University of Leuven, Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke and the Governor of
the Banque de France Jean-Claude Trichet had the
A highlight of the work of CESifo GmbH is the Munich
Economic Summit, inaugurated in 2002 by CESifo and
the BMW Herbert Quandt Foundation. The goal of
this annual conference is to establish an international
69
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
opportunity to discuss the problems and challenges of
enlargement together with Leszek Balcerowicz, the
President of the National Bank Of Poland.
Guy Kirsch, University of Freiburg, Switzerland
“Die Osterweiterung der EU – Integration oder Desintegration?”, 28 January 2002.
The research cooperation supported by CESifo between the Ifo Institute and the Ludwig Maximilians
University was mutually beneficial in 2002, and this
positive development will continue to be promoted in
2003.
Karl Homann, University of Munich (LMU)
“Wirtschaft and Moral – Eine Neubestimmung ihres
Verhältnisses”, 4 February 2002.
Ignazio Angeloni, European Central Bank
“Policy Devolution in the European Union:Theory and
Evidence”, 22 April 2002.
Joint Projects of the Ifo Institute
and CES Completed in 2001:
Lars Calmfors, Stockholm University
“The Adjustment to Macroeconomic Shocks in the
EMU”, 29 April 2002.
Old-age Provision in Ageing Societies: Equity,
Efficiency and Sustainability
R. Fenge, M.Werding (Ifo Institute), S. Übelmesser (CES)
in cooperation with the Brookings Institution,Wharton
School /University of Pennsylvania (USA), Imperial
College (UK), Frisch Centre for Economic Research
(Norway), IIASA (Austria), Univ. of New South Wales
(Australia), KDI (Korea), Univ. Kyoto, Univ. Tokyo, MRI
(Japan), the Economic and Social Research Institute
(ESRI) of the Government of Japan, April 2000
to March 2002, published as: CESifo Working Paper
No. 743, CESifo Working Paper No. 841 and CESifo
Working Paper No. 842.
Wilhelm Simson, E.ON AG
“Menschen als Gestalter der Globalisierung”, 6 May
2002.
Jean Pisani-Ferry, Council of Economic Analysis, France
and Université Paris-Dauphine
“What Can be Learned from the Recent French
Employment Experience?”, 10 June 2002.
Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics
“On the Feasibility of Risk Based Regulation”, 1 July
2002.
Change in Corporate Strategies and Structures in Germany in Light of New Financial
Instruments and I&C Technologies
H.-G. Vieweg, M. Reinhard in cooperation with A. Weichenrieder, Center for Economic Studies (CES),
University of Munich (LMU) for the Federal Ministry
for the Economy and Labour, September 2000 to
March 2002, published (in German) in: ifo Beiträge zur
Wirtschaftsforschung,Vol. 11, 2003.
Fiorella Kostoris Padoa Schioppa, Institute for Economic Studies and Analyses, Rome
“Forecast on the Italian Economy and Public Finance”,
8 July 2002.
Wolfgang Franz, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim
“Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen an die künftige Bundesregierung”, 4 November 2002.
Munich Seminars
Kurt F.Viermetz, HypoVereinsbank
“Die Konsequenzen der jüngsten Bilanzskandale auf
beiden Seiten des Atlantiks”, 18 November 2002.
Francesco Giavazzi, IGIER, Università Bocconi, Milan
“Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets”, 14 January
2002
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
Ferdinand Graf von Ballestrem, MAN AG
“Veränderungen des Kapitalmarktes aus der Sicht eines
Emittenten”, 2 December 2002.
70
CESifo activities
CESifo Conferences
CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money
and International Finance
Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy
Implications
18 – 20 January 2002 (Schloss Elmau).
8 – 9 February 2002 (Munich).
Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland
“Natural Resources and Economic Growth: the Role of
Investment”
Gylfi Zoega, Birkbeck College
“Natural Resources, Inequality and Economic Growth”
Burkhard Heer, University of Bamberg
“Welfare Costs of Inflation in a Dynamic Economy
with Search Unemployment”
Campbell Leith, University of Glasgow
“Wage Inequality and the Effort Incentive Effects of
Technical Progress”
Carsten Hefeker, Hamburgisches Welt-WirtschaftsArchiv (HWWA)
“Common Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Shocks”
Michael Keane,Yale University
“Inequality Transfer and Growth: New Evidence from
Economic Transition in Poland”
Jim Malley, University of Glasgow
“Estimated General Equilibrium Models for the
Evaluation of Monetary Policy in the US and Europe”
Oleksiy Ivaschenko, Goteborg University
“Growth and Inequality: Evidence from Transitional
Economies”
Jan-Egbert Sturm, Ifo Institute, and Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen
“Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU: New
Evidence”
Omar Moav, Hebrew University
“Fertility Clubs and Economic Growth”
Jean-Marie Viaene, Erasmus University
“Human Capital Formation, Income Inequality and
Growth”
Mathias Hoffmann, University of Southampton, and
Ronald MacDonald, University of Strathclyde
“Real Exchange Rates and Real Differentials: An Integrated Perspective”
Danny Quah, London School of Economics
“Some Simple Arithmetic on How Income and Inequality Matter”
Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California
“Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles
of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments”
François Bourguignon, DELTA and World Bank
“Inequality, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction”
Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven, and Marianna
Grimaldi, University of Leuven
“The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals. A Chaotic
Perspective”
Günther Rehme,Technische University of Darmstadt
“Redistribution of Personal Incomes, Education and Economic Performance Across Countries”
Marc Flandreau, OFCE, and John Komlos, University of
Munich
“How to Run a Target Zone? Age Old Lessons from
the Austro-Hungarian Experiment (1896 – 1914)”
Theo Eicher, University of Washington, Stephen Turnovsky, University of Washington and Maria Carne
Riera Prunera, Barcelona University
“The Impact of Tax Policy on Inequality and Growth:An
Empirical and Theoretical Investigation”
Michael Funke, University of Hamburg
“Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for
Investment?”
71
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
CESifo MIT Book Workshop
11 February 2002 (Munich).
Heinrich Blauert,The Association of Swedish Engineering Industry
“Engineering Industry”
Efraim Sadka, Tel-Aviv University, Assaf Razin, Tel-Aviv
University, Chang Woon Nam, Ifo Institute
“Labor Income Taxation, Capital Income Taxation, and
Globalization”
Jamal N. El Hout, General Motors Europe
“Automobiles”
CESifo MIT Book Workshop
22. February 2002 (Munich).
CESifo Area Conference on Industrial
Organisation
19 – 20 May 2002 (Munich).
Mark Gradstein, Volker Meier, Ifo Institute
“The Political Economy of Education and its Implications for Growth and Distribution”
Bernard Salanie, CREST
“Testing Contract Theory: A Survey of Some Recent
Work”
Sandro Brusco, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
“Reallocation of Corporate Resources and Managerial
Incentives in Internal Capital Markets”
CESifo International Spring Conference:
“Prospects for the European Economy”
21 – 22. March 2002 (Munich).
Gerhard O. Orosel, University of Vienna
“Optimal Pricing and Endogenous Herding”
Torsten Sloek, IMF
“The United States in the World Economy”
Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute
“The European Economy”
Laurent Linnemer, LEI – ENPC, Paris
“When Backward Integration by a Dominant Firm Improves Welfare”
Giancarlo Corsetti, Universita di Roma Tre
“Policy Recommendations of the European Economic
Advisory Group at CESifo”
Kjell Erik Lommerud, University of Bergen
“Downstream Merger with Oligopolistic Input Suppliers”
Francois Ortalo-Magne, University of Wisconsin-Madison
“Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence from
England”
Major Branches of European Industry
Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute
“Business Trends in EU Manufacturing Industry on the
Basis of Business Surveys”
Claude Crampes, University of Toulouse
“Copying and Software Pricing”
Malcolm Mitchell, BP Chemicals
“Chemicals”
Bruno Jullien, University of Toulouse
“Competing in Network Industries: Divide and Conquer”
Armand Sadler, Arcelor
“Steel Industry”
Achim Wambach, University Munich
“Collusion in Beauty Contests”
Dieter May, Infineon
“Electronics”
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
72
CESifo activities
Hans-Werner Sinn, University of Munich and Ifo Institute
“Risk Taking, Limited Liability and the Competition of
Bank Regulators”
Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen
“Start-ups,Venture Capitalists, and the Capital Gains Tax”
Paolo Pantheghini, Università degli Studi di Brescia
“Endogenous Timing and the Taxation of Discrete Investment Choices”
Robert J. Gary-Bobo, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
“A Structural Econometric Model of Price Discrimination in the Mortgage Lending Industry”
Gregory Hess, Oberlin College
“An Empirical Assessment of the Economic Welfare
Cost of Conflict”
Sven Rady, University of Munich
“Strategic Experimentation:The Case of Poisson Bandits”
Rainer Niemann, University of Tübingen
“Neutral Taxation of Pensions in a Comprehensive Income Tax”
CESifo Area Conference on Public Sector
Economics
10 – 12 May 2002 (Munich).
Andreas Haufler, University of Munich
"Regional Tax Coordination and Foreign Direct
Investment"
Alessandro Cigno, University of Florence
“Children and Pensions”
Mark Gradstein, Ben-Gurion University, Beer-Sheva
“Bargaining with Secession: Buchanan Meets Coase”
Marcel Gérard, FUCAM, Mons
“Interjurisdictional Company Taxation in Europe, the
German Reform and the New EU Suggested Direction”
Henning Bohn, University of California at Santa Barbara
“Voting over Non-linear Taxes in a Stylized Representative Democracy”
Wolfgang Eggert, University of Copenhagen
“Information Sharing, Multiple Nash Equilibria, and
Asymmetric Capital Tax Competition”
Thiess Büttner, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim
“The Dynamics of Municipal Fiscal Adjustment”
Ruud de Mooij, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
“Tax Policy in a Model of Search with Training”
Massimo Bordignon, University of Milan
“In Search for Yardstick Competition: Property Tax
Rates and Electoral Behavior in Italian Cities”
Volker Grossmann, University of Zurich
“Income Inequality, Voting over the Size of Public
Consumption, and Growth”
Clemens Fuest, University of Cologne
“Tax Competition and Profit Shifting: On the Relationship between Personal and Corporate Tax Rates”
Saku Aura, IGIER and IEP, Bocconi University
“Does the Balance of Power within a Family Mater?
The Case of the Retirement Equity Act”
Kai Konrad, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin
“Investment in the Absence of Property Rights: The
Role of Incumbency Advantages”
Dieter Bös, University of Bonn
“Contests among Bureaucrats”
Wolfgang Leininger, University of Dortmund
“Contests over Public Goods: Evolutionary Stability
and the Free-Rider Problem”
Shmuel Nitzan, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan
“Effort and Performance in Public-Policy Contests”
73
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
Tomer Blumkin,Tel Aviv University
“Estate Taxation”
Michael S. Michael, University of Cyprus, Nicosia
“Reforms of Environmental Policies in the Presence of
Cross-Border Pollution and Two-Stage Clean-Up”
Pierre Pestieau, Université de Liège
“Wealth Transfer Taxation with both Accidental and
Planned Bequests”
ISPE Conference on Labour Market
Institutions and Public Regulation
2 – 4 June 2002 (Cadenabbia).
Jeremy Edwards, University of Cambridge
“Global Production Efficiency and Pareto-Efficient International Taxation”
Coen Teulings, University of Rotterdam
“Education, Income Distribution and Public Policy”
Anna Pettini, University of Florence
“Hidden Information Problems in the Design of Family
Allowances”
William Scarth, McMaster University, Ontario, and
Thomas Moutos, Athens University of Economics and
Business
“Some Macroeconomic Consequences of Basic Income and Employment Subsidies”
Efraim Sadka,Tel Aviv University
“Political Economics of Capital Income Taxation with
Ageing Population”
Maria Laura Parisi, University of Padua
“Labor Taxes, Wage Setting and the Relative Wage
Effect”
Matthias Wrede,Technische Hochschule Aachen
“Small States, Large Unitary States, and Federations”
Michael Keen, International Monetary Fund
“Institutions for Global Tax Cooperation”
Laszlo Goerke, University of Constance
“The Economics of Employment Protection: Dismissal
Pay for Individual and Collective Redundancies”
Martin Kolmar, University of Constance
“Endogenously Excludable Goods”
Rafael Lalive, University of Zurich
“Benefit Entitlement and the Labor Market: Evidence
from a Large-Scale Policy Change”
Danny Cohen-Zada, Ben-Gurion University
“Preserving Religious Values Through Education”
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
Emmanuel Saez, University of California at Berkely
“Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus
Extensive Labor Supply Response”
CESifo Area Conference on Employment and
Social Protection
14 –15 June 2002 (Munich).
David K. Miles, Imperial College Management School,
London
“Optimal Social Security Design”
Rebecca Blank, University of Michigan
“The Lessons from US Welfare Reform”
Wolfram Richter, University of Dortmund
“Trading Off Tax Distortion and Tax Evasion”
Simon Gächter, University of St. Gallen
“Do Incentive Contracts Undermine Voluntary Cooperation?”
Laslo Goerke, University of Constance
“Fiscal Policy, Economic Integration and Unemployment”
Kai Konrad, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin
“Human Capital Investment and Globalization in
Extortionary States”
74
CESifo activities
José Rodriguez Mora, Universitat Pompeu Fabra,
Barcelona
“A Positive Theory of Geographic Mobility and Social
Insurance”
Geir Bjonnes, Stockholm Institute for Financial Research,
Dagfinn Rime, Central Bank of Norway, and Haakon
Solheim, Norwegian School of Management
“Volume, Order Flow and the FX Market: Does It
Matter Who You Are?”
Josef Zweimuller, University of Zurich
“The Effect of Benefit Sanction on the Duration of Unemployment”
Mark Taylor, Warwick University
“Modelling and Forecasting Real and Nominal Exchange
Rates – Where Do We Stand?”
Torben Tranaes, Danish National Institute of Social
Research and EPRU, Copenhagen
“Voluntary Public Unemployment Insurance”
Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven
“Heterogeneity of Agents and the Exchange Rate.
A Non-Linear Approach”
Assar Lindbeck, Stockholm University
“The Gains from Pension Reform”
Volker Böhm, University of Bielefeld
“Dynamics of Endogenous Business Cycles and Exchange Rate Volatility”
Friedrich Breyer, University of Constance
“Incentives to Retire Later – A Solution to the Social
Security Crisis?”
Andrea Ichino, European University Fiesole
“Absenteeism, Gender and Biological Diversity”
Phornchanok Cumperayot, Erasmus University, Rotterdam
“Modelling Currency Prices with Fundamental Volatility”
Kjell Erik Lommerud, University of Bergen
“Unionized Oligopoly, Trade Liberalization and Location Choice”
Michael Moore, Queen’s University Belfast
“Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates without
the Contrivance of Sticky Prices”
Nils Gottfries, Uppsala University
“Exchange Rate Policy, Labor Market Conditions and
Wage Adjustment in the Open Economy”
Gianluca Benigno, London School of Economics
“Exchange Rate Determination under Interest Rate
Rules”
Dan Anderberg, University of Stirling
“An Equilibrium Analysis of Marriage, Divorce and RiskSharing”
Hans-Werner Sinn, University of Munich and Ifo Institute, and Frank Westermann, University of Munich
“The Euro, Eastern Europe and Black Markets: The
Currency Hypothesis”
CESifo Venice Summer Institute
13 – 20 Juli 2002 (San Servolo).
Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California
“Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are
Any Fit to Survive”
Exchange Rate Modelling:Where Do We Stand?
13–14 July 2002
Mariam Camarero, Jaume J. University, Castellon
“The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is It Fundamental?”
Richard Lyons, University of California at Berkeley
“Are Different Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?”
Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics
“Liquidity Determination in an Order Driven Market”
75
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
Measuring the Tax Burden on Capital and
Labour
15 – 16 July 2002
Gaetan Nicodeme, European Commission
“Sector and Size Effects on Effective Corporate Taxation”
Michael P. Devereux, University of Warwick
“Measuring Taxes on Income from Capital”
Banking Regulation and Financial Stability
17 – 18 July 2002
Julian Alworth, ETPA, Milano, and Giampaolo Arachi,
Università Luigi Bocconi
“An Integrated Approach to Measuring Effective Tax
Rates”
Jean Charels Rochet, University of Toulouse
“Why Are There so Many Banking Crisis?”
Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics
“On the Feasibility of Risk Based Regulation”
David Carey, OECD
“Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and
Consumption”
Misa Tanaka, University of Oxford
“How Do Bank Capital and Capital Adequacy Regulation Affect the Monetary Trans-mission Mechanism?”
Roger Gordon, University of California, San Diego,
Laura Kalambokidis, University of Minnesota, and Joel
Slemrod, University of Michigan Business School
“If Capital Income Taxes are so High, Why Do We
Collect so Little Revenue – New Summary Measure
of the Effective Tax Rate on Investment”
Jan Wenzelburger, University of Bielefeld
“Banking and the Macroeconomy”
Stephanie Stolz, University of Kiel
“Banking Supervision in Integrated Financial markets:
Implications for the EU”
Steven Clark, OECD
“The ‘Taxing Wages’ Approach to Measuring the Tax
Burden on Labour”
Cornelia Holthausen, European Central Bank
“Cooperation in International Banking Supervision:
A Political Economy Approach”
Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen, and JanEgbert Sturm, Ifo Institute
“How To Measure the Tax Burden on Labour?”
Marc Quintyn, International Monetary Fund
“Regulatory and Supervisory Independence and
Financial Stability”
James R. Hines, University of Michigan Business School
“Measuring Taxes on International Investment – What
Taxes are Relevant?”
Gabriela Mundaca, University of Oslo
“Moral Hazard Effects of Bailing out under Asymmetric
Information”
Harry Grubert, U. S.Treasury Dept.
“The Tax Burden on Cross-Border Investment: Company Strategies and Government Responses”
Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
“Towards a Macro-Prudential Framework for Financial
Supervision and Regulation?”
Kirk Collins, University of Ottawa
“Measuring Effective Tax Rates on Human Capital:The
Canadian Case”
Giovanni Majnoni,The World Bank
“Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Slowdowns:
Too Much,Too Late?”
Steven Clark, OECD
“Using Micro-Data to Assess Average Effective Tax
Rates”
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
Martin Summer, Österreichische Nationalbank
“The Risk of Interbank Credits: A New Approach to
the Assessment of Systematic Risk”
76
CESifo activities
Lieven Baele, University of Gent
“The Effect of Diversification and Capitalization on Bank
Credit Risk? Evidence from Bank Stock Market
Returns”
Christoph Lülfesmann, University of Bonn
“The Theory of Human Capital Revisited: On the Interaction of General and Specific Investments”
Armin Falk, University of Zurich
“The Limits and Power of Tournament Incentives”
The Changing Organisation of Labour
19 – 20 July 2002
CESifo Delphi Conference on Managing EU
Enlargement
13 – 14 September 2002 (Delphi).
W. Bentley MacLeod, University of Southern California
“The Employment Contract and the Organization of
Labor in Europe”
Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen
“Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and
Welfare in Present Member Countries”
Florian Englmaier, University of Munich
“Contracts and Inequality Aversion”
Karl Warneryd, Stockholm School of Economics
“Distributional Conflict in Organizations”
Ruud de Mooij, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
“EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries
and Industries”
Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics
“Across to Credit Risk Taking and Organizational
Change”
Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen
“Taxation of a Venture Capitalist with a Portfolio of
Firms”
Antonis Adam, Athens University of Economics and
Business, and Thomas Moutos, Athens University of
Economics and Business
“The Political Economy of EU Enlargement: Or, Why Is
Japan not a Candidate Country?”
Stergios Skaperdas, University of California at Irvine
“All in the Family or Public? Law and Appropriative
Costs as Determinants of Owners Structure”
Jerome Stein, Brown University, Providence
“The Effect of Enlargement upon the Equilibrium Value
of the Euro”
Dorothea Kübler, Humboldt University, Berlin
“Social Norms and Incentives in Firms”
Daniel Gros, Center for European Policy Studies,
Brussels
“Who Needs an External Anchor?”
Jon Strand, University of Oslo
“The Decline or Expansion of Unions: A Bargaining
Model with Heterogeneous Labor”
Helge Berger, International Monetary Fund, and Jakob
de Haan, University of Groningen
“Should the ECB Be Restructured, and if so, How?”
Volker Grossmann, University of Zurich
“Workplace in the Primary Economy and Wage Pressure in the Secondary Labor Market”
Tobias Müller, University of Geneva
“The Political Economy of Migration and EU Enlargement: Lessons from Switzerland”
Sengupta Sarbajit, University of Southern California
“Delegating Recruitment under Asymmetric Information”
Michael Burda, Humboldt University, Berlin
“On the Dynamics of factor Mobility and Regional
Economic Integration”
77
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
CESifo MIT Book Workshop
16 October 2002 (Munich).
Jörg Baten, University of Tübingen
“Did Partial Globalization Increase Inequality? Did Inequality Stimulate Globalization Backlash? The Case of
the Latin American Periphery, 1950 – 2000”
Richard Arnott, and Ronnie Schöb, University of Magdeburg
“Alleviating Traffic Congestion”
John Serieux, University of North Carolina
“Riding the Elephants: World Output Growth and the
Distribution of World Income in the Last Decade of
the 20th Century”
CESifo Conference on the Economics of
Organisation and Corporate Governance
Structures
25 – 26 October 2002 (Munich).
Vivek H. Dehejia, Carleton University, Ottawa
“Trade and Labour Standards Theory, New Empirical
Evidence and Policy Implications”
Robert Chirinko, Emory University, and Elmer Sterken, University of Groningen
“Investor Protections and Concentrated Ownership
Assessing Corporate Control Mechanisms in the
Netherlands”
Raymond Riezman, University of Iowa
“How Often Are Propositions on the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Theoretical Curiosa and
When Should They Guide Policy”
Alfons J.Weichenrieder, University of Frankfurt /Main
“Ownership Concentration and Share Valuation”
Andrea Cornia, University of Florence
“The impact of Liberalisation and Globalisation on
Income Inequality in the Developing and Transitional
Economies”
Thomas Pfeiffer, University of Vienna
“Information Systems, Bargaining Power and Specific
Investments”
Syed Ahsan, Concordia University, Montreal
“Inequality,Well-Being and Institutions in Latin America
and the Caribbean”
Sabine Böckem, University of Dortmund, and Ulf
Schiller, University of Tübingen
“Transfer Pricing. Hold-ups, and Double Marginalization
in Supply Chains”
Harold James, Princeton University
“Financial Flows, Inequality and Backlashes against
Globalization?”
Christa Hainz, University of Munich
“Are Transition Countries Overbanked?”
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
Alessandro Cigno, University of Florence
“Does Globalisation Increase Child Labour?”
CESifo Conference on Globalisation,
Inequality and Well-Being
8 – 9 November 2002 (Munich).
Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland
“Education, Social Equality and economic Growth:
A View of the Landscape”
Tony Atkinson, Nuffield College, Oxford
“Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Data and Explanations”
Surjit Bhalla, Oxus Research and Investments, New Delhi
“Poor Results? Examining Estimates of Global Inequality and Poverty”
Stephan Klasen, University of Munich, and Carola
Grün, University of Munich
“Growth, Income Distribution, and Well-Being:
Comparisons across Space and Time”
Robert Hunter Wade, London School of Economics
“Globalization, Poverty and Income Distribution: Does
the Liberal Argument Hold?”
78
CESifo activities
CESifo Conference on Venture Capital,
Entrepreneurship, and Public Policy
22 – 23 November 2002 (Munich).
Harvey S. Rosen, Princeton University
“Entrepreneurship and Taxation: Empirical Evidence”
Ayi Ayayi, Ryerson University
“Good News, Bad News: Ten Years’ Lessons from the
Canadian Labour-Sponsored Venture Capital Corporations”
Laura Botazzi, Bocconi University, Milan, and Marco
Da Rin,Turin University
“Financing Entrepreneurial Firms in Europe: Facts,
Issues, and Research Agenda”
Ari Hyytinen, The Research Institute of the Finnish
Economy
“How Important Are Exits for Venture Capital Finance?
Evidence from Finland”
Christian Keuschnigg, University of St. Gallen, and
Søren Bo Nielsen, Copenhagen Business School
“Public Policy for Start-up Entrepreneurship with Venture
Capital and Bank Finance”
Masako Ueda, University of Wisconsin
“Venture Capital and Productivity”
Douglas J. Cumming, University of Alberta
“Comparative Venture Capital Governance: Private
versus Labour Sponsored Capital Funds”
CESifo MIT-Book Workshop
5 December 2002 (Munich).
Robin Boadway, Queen's University, Kingston
“Information Problems in Start-up Entrepreneurship:
The Public Finance View”
Pierre Pestieau, and Robert Fenge, Ifo Institute
“Social Security and Retirement”
Clemens Fuest, University of Cologne
“Tax Policy and Entrepreneurship in the Presence of
Asymmetric Information in Capital Markets”
CESifo Conference on Unemployment in
Europe: Reasons and Remedies
6 – 7 December 2002 (Munich).
Allen Frankel, Bank for International Settlements
“IT Innovations and Financing Patterns: Implications for
the Financial System”
Stephen J. Nickell, Bank of England
“A Picture of European Unemployment: Success and
Failure”
Thomas Hellmann, Standford University
“Determinants of the Venture Capital Industry:
A Financial Economics Perspective”
Jean Pisani-Ferry, French Ministry for Economy,
Finance and Industry
“Employment and Unemployment in France: What
Lessons?”
Ansgar Belke, University of Hohenheim, Rainer Fehn,
Ifo Institute, and Neil Foster, University of Vienna
“Venture Capital Investment and Labor Market Performance: A Panel Data Analysis”
Rainer Fehn, Ifo Institute
“Unemployment in Germany: Reasons and Remedies”
Mirjam van Praag, University of Amsterdam
“Entrepreneurial Venture Performance and Initial
Capital Constraints: An Empirical Analysis”
Jan C. van Ours,Tilburg University
“Rising Unemployment at the Start of the 21st
Century: Has the Dutch Miracle Come to an End?”
Thomas Gehrig, University of Freiburg, and Rune Stenbacka, University of Helsinki
“Venture Cycles:Theory and Evidence”
Brendan Walsh, University College Dublin
“When Unemployment Disappears: Ireland in the
1990s”
79
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
Munich Economic Summit
Christopher Pissarides, London School of Economics
“Unemployment in Britain: An European Success
Story”
7 – 8 June 2002 (Munich).
Horst Teltschik, Herbert Quandt Stiftung, Munich and
Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute
Opening of the conference
Edmund S. Phelps, Columbia University
“Europe’s High Unemployment: Possible Fur ther
Causes and their Mechanism”
Edmund Stoiber, Bavaraian Minister-President
Keynote Address
Giuseppe Bertola, European University Institute,
Fiesole
“The History and Structure of Italian Unemployment”
Panel 1
Ralf Dahrendorf, London School of Economics, Guido
Tabellini, Bocconi University; Milan, Isabel Tocino,
Madrid, Elmar Brok, Europaen Parliament,
“Principles of Policy Making in a Larger Europe: What
Constitution Fits the Union”
Roope Uusitalo, Uppsala University, and Erkki
Koskela, Helsinki University
“The Unintented Convergence: How the Finnish Unemployment Reached the European Level”
Panel 2
John Major, former British Prim Minister, Jack Boorman, IMF, Washington, DC, Valdas Adamkus, President
of Lithuania, Günter Verheugen, European Commission, Janez Drnovsek, Prime Minister of Slovenia, Maria
Kadlecikova, Ministry of European Integration, Slovakia
“Challenges Ahead: Integrating Europe’s New Members”
Torben Andersen, University of Aarhus
“From Excess to Shortage – Recent Developments in
the Danish Labour Market”
Bertil Holmlund, Uppsala University
“The Rise and Fall of Swedish Unemployment”
Samuel Bentolila, CEMFI, Madrid
“Spanish Unemployment:The End of the Wild Ride?”
Panel 3
Edward G. Krubasik, Siemens AG, Munich, Dale
Jorgenson, Harvard University, Erkki Liikanen, European Commission, Samuel A. DiPiazza, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Hubert Burda, Hubert Burda
Verlag
“Europe’s Path towards Innovation and Technology”
Panel 4
Albrecht Schmidt, Bayerische Hypo- and Vereinsbank,
Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven, Jean-Claude
Trichet, Banque de France, Ernst Welteke, Deutsche
Bundesbank, Leszek Balcerowicz, National Bank of
Poland
“The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged Europe”
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
80
CESifo activities
CESifo publications
Research Reports
Why Do Jobless rates Differ?
The Support of the Euro in the Fifteen EU Countries – Politics and Economics
CESifo Forum
Spring 2002
Focus: Company Taxation and the Internal Market
European Company Tax Reform: prospects for the
Future (Jack M. Mintz)
WES
World Economic Survey
Trends
Statistical update
Formulary Apportionment and the Future of Company Taxation in the European Union (Joann Martens
Weiner)
Summer 2002
Introduction
Europe after Enlargement (Horst Teltschik, Hans-Werner Sinn)
Roundtable Discussion on the European Commission’s Study on Company Taxation
Conference on Corporate and Capital Income Taxation in the European Union (Matthias Mors)
Keynote Address
Redefining the Interest, the Identity and the Role of an
Enlarged Union (Edmund Stoiber)
Home State Taxation versus Common Base Taxation
(Silvia Giannini)
Panel 1
Principles of Policy Making in a Larger Europe: What
Constitution Fits the Union? (Guido Tabellini, Elmar Brok)
To Harmonise or not to Harmonise? (Peter Birch
Sørensen)
The Pros and Cons of Formulary Apportionment
(Emil M. Sunley)
Panel 2
Challenges Ahead: Integrating Europe’s New Members
(Jack Boorman, Valdas Adamkus, Günter Verheugen,
Maria Kadlecikova)
Further Research Needed on Comprehensive
Approaches (Marcel Gérard)
Keynote Address
A Look at the World as It Is and How It Will Be – and
at our Place within It (John Major)
Pro and Contra: Food Safety Through More Regulation?
Pro: Food Legislation Must Be Effective and Efficient
(David Byrne)
Panel 3
Europe’s Path towards Innovation and Technology
(Dale Jorgenson, Erkki Liikanen, Samuel A. DiPiazza)
Contra: Food Safety and Market Forces (John E.
Calfee)
Panel 4
The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged
Europe (Paul de Grauwe, Jean-Claude Trichet, Ernst
Welteke, Leszek Balcerowicz)
Special
Stability, Subsidiarity and Sustainability
Spotlights
Women Dominate Part-time Work
Keynote Address
The World after September 11 (Lee Kwan Yew)
The Triad Accounts for Four-fifths of Global FDI
Outflows and Outwards Stocks
WES
World Economic Survey
81
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
CESifo activities
Trends
Statistical update
Winter 2002
Focus: Subsidiarity
Subsidiarity, Governance, and EU Economic Policy
(Robert P. Inman and Daniel L. Rubinfeld)
Autumn 2002
Focus: Corporate Governance
Corporate Governance (Alan Greenspan)
Subsidiarity and the Debate on the Future of Europe
(Giovanni Grevi)
Corporate Governance and Shareholder Value: How
Did We Get Here and Where Are We Going? (Fred
R. Kaen)
Pro and Contra: Should the EU Have a President with
Two Hats?
Yes (Ben Crum)
No (Elmar Brok)
Corporate Governance in the UK – Contrasted with
the US System (Julian Franks and Colin Mayer)
Special
Does Sales-only Apportionment of Corporate Income
Violate International Trade Rules? The Monetary Policy
of the ECB and Automatic Stabilizers: Will They Work?
Power, Rent Extraction, and Executive Compensation
(Lucian Bebchuk and Jesse Fried)
Pro and Contra: National Accounting Rules in a
Globalised World
Should the World Embrace a Single Set of Accounting
Standards? (Robert E. Litan)
Spotlights
Older Workers – a Neglected Employment Potential
Weak Demand for Credit, but also Weak Supply
The Best of Both Worlds (Hanno Merkt)
DICE Reports
Work Lost Due to Illness – an International Comparison
Special
The Euro in Central and Eastern Europe – Survey
Evidence from Five Countries
WES
World Economic Survey
Poland’s Road to the Euro: A Review of Options
Trends
Statistical update
Spotlights
Electric Energy Exchange Gain in Importance
Another Oil Price Spike?
Temporary Agency Employment in the European
Union
EEAG European Economic Advisory Group
at CESifo
Report on the European Economy 2002
(G. Corsetti, University of Rome, J. Flemming, Wadham
College, Oxford, S. Honka-pohja, University of Helsinki,
W. Leibfritz, OECD, G. Saint-Paul, University of Toulouse,
H.-W. Sinn, Ifo Institute, X. Vives, INSEAD, Fontainebleau)
DICE Reports
Results of PISA 2000:The Case of Germany
WES
World Economic Survey
– The European Economy: Current Situation and
Economic Outlook
Trends
Statistical update
– The Weakness of the Euro; Is It Really a Mystery?
– Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002
82
CESifo activities
– Prices, Wages and Inflation after the Euro – What
Europeans Should or Should not Expect
Weber’s Law and the Biological Evolution of Risk Preferences:The Selective Domi-nance of the Logarithmic
Utility Function
H.-W. Sinn, September 2002.
– Growth and Productivity
– Welfare to Work CAP Reform
International Comparisons and Transfer of Labour
Market Institutions
W. Ochel, October 2002.
CESifo Working Papers by researchers of the
Ifo Institute and CESifo
Social Security Reform and Intergenerational Trade:
Is there Scope for a Pareto-Improvement?
M. Köthenbürger and P. Poutvaara, October 2002.
Corruption and the Shadow Economy
J. P. Choi and M.Thum, January 2002.
Distortionary Domestic Taxation and Pareto-Efficient
International Trade
J. Edwards and R. Schöb, January 2002.
On the Partial Public Provision of a Private Good
R. Jayaraman, December 2002.
Deregulation, Entry of Foreign Banks and Bank Efficiency in Australia
J.-E. Sturm and B. Williams, December 2002.
IMF Credit: How Important Are Political Factors?
A Robustness Analysis
J.-E. Sturm, H. Berger and J. de Haan, January 2002.
Lessons of the 1999 Abolition of Intra-EU Duty Free
Sales for Eastern European EU Candidates
A. Gebauer, Ch. W. Nam and R. Parsche, December 2002.
Venture Capital Investment and Labor Market Performance: A Panel Data Analysis
A. Belke, R. Fehn and N. Foster, January 2002.
Significance of Development Stage Theory for Explaining Industrial Growth Pattern between Asian NICs
and Selected Advanced Economies
Ch. W. Nam, February 2002.
In 2002 more than 200 CESifo Working Papers were
published and distributed to the members of the
network.
Workfare in an Efficiency Wage Model
V. Meier, February 2002.
Insurance in a Market for Credence Goods
K. Sülzle and A. Wambach, February 2002.
Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP
G. Flaig, March 2002.
Second-best Properties of Implicit Social Security Taxes:
Theory and Evidence
R. Fenge, S. Übelmesser and M. Werding, June 2002.
Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts
and Explanation
A.Tornell and F. Westermann, July 2002.
83
Ifo Annual Repor t 2002