Download PDF Download

Trends
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
IN THE EURO AREA
In the three-month period from January 2008 to March 2008 short-term
interest rates rose. The three-month EURIBOR rate increased from an
average 4.48% in January to 4.73% in March. Yet, ten-year bond yields
declined from 4.23% in January to 4.14% in February and 4.10% in
March 2008. In the same period of time the yield spread declined from
– 0.25% (January) to – 0.63% (March).
The German stock index DAX continued to decline in March, averaging 6,535 points compared to 6,852 points in January. The Euro STOXX
fell from 4,026 in January to 3,596 in March. The Dow Jones International also declined averaging 12,194 points in March compared to
12,538 points in January.
The annual rate of growth of M3 stood at 11.4% in January 2008 compared to 12.0% in November 2007. The three-month average of the annual growth rate of M3 over the period from November 2007 to January 2008
reached 11.7% and, therefore, remained unchanged compared to that for
the period August-October 2007.
In March 2008 the monetary conditions index continued its general
decline that had started in late 2001, signalling greater monetary tightening. This is the result of rising real short-term interest rates and a rising real effective exchange rate of the euro.
CESifo Forum 1/2008
48
Trends
EU
SURVEY RESULTS
According to the first Eurostat estimates, euro area (EU13) GDP grew by
0.4% and EU27 GDP by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to
the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2007 the growth rate had
amounted to 0.7% for the euro area and 0.8% for the EU27. Compared
to the fourth quarter of 2006, i.e. year over year, seasonally adjusted GDP
rose by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU27.
In March 2008, the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator rose by 1.7 points
in the EU27 and decreased by 0.6 points in the euro area, to 102.0 and
99.6 respectively. Following a continuous decline since mid-2007, the
indicator rebounded somewhat in the EU27. Yet, it weakened further in
the euro area and now stands just below its long-term average. Overall
economic confidence improved in the UK, Poland and Germany.
* The industrial confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to the
questions on production expectations, order-books and stocks (the latter with
inverted sign).
** New consumer confidence indicators, calculated as an arithmetic average of the
following questions: financial and general economic situation (over the next
12 months), unemployment expectations (over the next 12 months) and savings
(over the next 12 months). Seasonally adjusted data.
Managers’ assessment of order books improved to – 1.2 in March 2008
from – 2.4 in February. In January the indicator had reached – 0.9.
Capacity utilisation slightly improved to 83.8 in the first quarter of 2008
from 83.7 in the previous quarter.
In March 2008, the industrial confidence indicator remained unchanged in
both the EU27 and the euro area. Despite the downward trend observed
since mid-2007, the level of the indicator still stands well above its longterm average. Among the large EU Member States, industrial confidence
rose in the UK and France, while it weakened in the Netherlands, Italy,
Spain and Poland. Consumer confidence also remained unchanged in the
EU27 and the euro area in March 2008. The indicator has been on a
downward path since its peak in May 2007 and currently stands below its
long-term average in both areas. In March consumer confidence worsened in Italy, France and the UK, while it improved in Spain and
Germany.
49
CESifo Forum 1/2008
Trends
EURO AREA
INDICATORS
The Ifo indicator of the economic climate in the euro area (EU15) has
clearly worsened again in the first quarter of 2008. Its decline is attributable to both less positive assessments of the current economic situation
and less favourable economic expectations for the coming six months. The
latest survey results indicate a slowdown in economic growth in the coming half year.
The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar averaged 1.55 $/€
in March 2008, an increase from 1.47 $/€ in January. (In December 2007
the rate had amounted to 1.46 $/€.)
Euro area (EU15) unemployment (seasonally adjusted) stood at 7.1% in
February 2008, unchanged from January. EU27 unemployment amounted
to 6.7% in February 2008 compared to 6.8% in January. This is quite a
decline from the 7.4% of a year earlier. Among the EU Member States
the lowest rates were registered in the Netherlands (2.7%) and Denmark
(3.1%). Unemployment rates were highest in Slovakia (9.9%) and
Estonia (9.0%).
Euro area annual inflation (HICP) was 3.3% in February 2008 after
3.2% in January. This is quite an increase from a year earlier, when the
rate had been 1.8%. The EU27 annual inflation rate also reached 3.4%
in February. An EU-wide HICP comparison shows that in February
2008 the lowest annual rates were observed in the Netherlands (2.0%),
Germany, Portugal and Sweden (2.9% each), and the highest rates in
Latvia (16.5%), Bulgaria (12.2%) and Estonia (11.5%).Year-on-year
EU15 core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed foods) rose to
2.35% in February, the same rate as in January.
CESifo Forum 1/2008
50