Download Presentation at Fifth Power Dinner, Marketing in Indonesia 2008

Presentation at Fifth Power Dinner, Marketing in Indonesia 2008
Update: Challenges and Opportunities, Jakarta, 24 July 2008
1
3 Observasi
1.
Observasi 1 - Perekonomian Indoensia sedang bangkit kembali
2.
Observasi 2 - Faktor Lingkungan Global 2008-1009 yang Menuju Stagflasi
3.
Observasi 3 - Ancaman inflasi di Indonesia bangkit kembali
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
2
Observasi 1
-
-
-
Dengan disertai gelombang Reformasi sejak medio 1998; yang menggelontorkan
arus besar Demokratisasi dan Desentralisasi, perekonomian Indonesia bangkit
kembali. Peristiwa itu ditandai oleh semakin kuatnya peranan PDB dan expor
Non-Migas serta kontribusi perekonomian daerah-daerah produsen/exportir
komoditi-komoditi Non-Migas.
Reformasi besar di Sektor Perbankan dan Keuangan telah kembali memperkuat
peranan lembaga perbankan, yang kali ini disertai oleh peningkatan peranan
BEI.
Bersama kesemua perubahan mendasar tersebut dana dari luar negeri (capital
inflow) masuk, baik di dalam bentuk Portfolio – maupun Direct Foreign Investment.
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
3
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi bangkit kembali Indonesia setelah
Krisis Multidimensi, dipicu oleh Sektor-Sektor Non-Migas
Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%/tahun)1998-2008
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6-13%
4.9
5.7
5.3
4.9
3.6
4.8
4.5
6
5
6.6
5.7
5.6
6.1
6.3
6.9
6.4
6.8
3.2
0.9 1
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Kabinet Gotong-Royong
-14 %
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
PDB Total
PDB Non Migas
2005
2006
2007
2008 **
4
Laju pertumbuhan expor non-migas telah semakin cepat
(didukung oleh kebangkitan basis-basis produksi di daerah-daerah, selain oleh semakin
kuatnya permintaan global akan komoditi dan kenaikan harga-harga komoditi)
Indonesia Trade Balance 2003-2007 (US$ Million. %)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
3
4
5
6
7
1
T REND (%)
03-07
8
CHANG E (%)
2007
8 (7:6)
A.
EX P O RT
1. O IL & G A S
2. NO N O IL & G A S
61,058.2
13,651.4
47,406.8
71,584.6
15,645.3
55,939.3
85,660.0
19,231.6
66,428.4
100,798.6
21,209.5
79,589.1
113,993.1
22,055.9
91,937.2
17.24
13.47
18.26
13.09
3.99
15.51
B.
IM P O RT
1. O IL & G A S
2. NO N O IL & G A S
32,550.7
7,610.9
24,939.8
46,524.5
11,732.0
34,792.5
57,700.9
17,457.7
40,243.2
61,065.5
18,962.9
42,102.6
74,206.7
21,879.6
52,327.1
21.17
29.59
18.21
21.52
15.38
24.28
C.
T O T AL
1. O IL & G A S
2. NO N O IL & G A S
93,608.9
21,262.3
72,346.6
118,109.1
27,377.3
90,731.8
143,360.8
36,689.3
106,671.6
18.67
20.14
18.22
16.27
9.37
18.55
D.
BAL AN CE
1. O IL & G A S
2. NO N O IL & G A S
28,507.5
6,040.5
22,467.0
25,060.1
3,913.3
21,146.8
27,959.1
1,773.9
26,185.1
11.94
-53.34
18.49
0.13
-92.15
5.14
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
161,864.1
40,172.4
121,691.7
39,733.1
2,246.6
37,486.5
188,199.8
43,935.5
144,264.3
39,786.4
176.3
39,414.1
5
Ikhtisar Ekonomi Makro Ekonomi Indonesia : 2001-2007
No Indikator Ekonomi
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007 1)
1 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%)
3.6
‐ Non Migas
4.9
2 Inflasi (%)
12.5
3 SBI rate % (3bulan)
17.63
10256
4 Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Rp/USD)
5 Sektor Eksternal
‐ Cadangan Devisa (USD milyar)
28
‐ Transaksi Berjalan (% thd PDB) 4.2
7 Defisit Anggaran (% thd PDB)
2.4
8 Utang Pemerintah (% thd PDB)
75.3
9 Utang Luar Negeri
‐ % thd PDB
81.0
‐ Debt Service Ratio (% thd ekspor)
41.4
10 Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (%)
8.1
11 Tingkat Kemiskinan (%)
18.2
4.5
5.2
10
13.02
9318
4.8
5.7
5.1
8.31
8593
5.0
6.0
6.4
7.43
8940
5.7
6.6
17.1
12.75
9713
5.5
6.1
6.6
9.75
9050
6.3
6.9
6.7
8
9130
32
3.9
1.3
63.9
36.6
3.4
1.7
57.4
36.3
1.2
1.3
55.5
34.7
0.1
0.5
46.5
42.6
2.7
0.9
39.2
56.9
2.6
1.2
35.5
66.5
33.1
9.1
17.4
56.8
32.3
9.7
17.4
53.8
27.1
9.9
16.7
46.5
17.3
11.2
16.0
35.2
24.8
10.3
17.8
32.7
21.5
9.1
16.6
Kabinet Gotong-Royong
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
‰ Sistem Moneter Indonesia semakin menguat
6
Coping with Capital Flows: Indonesia Experience
Indonesian Economy Better Set to Mitigate External Shock…
Indicator
1997/1998
2007
Economic Resiliency
Exchange Rate
Monetary Policy Framework
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Managed Float
Multiple Targeting
March 1998: USD 16,4M
Sustainability indicator:
•Debt/GDP
•Short Term Debt/Reserve
•Reserves/Foreign Port. Inv.
Fiscal Policy Framework
Fiscal Balance
More Stable
Fragile
•34.4%
•151.2%
•44,0%
•138.0%
•April 2007: 1,97
•July 1997: 1,38
More balance: between fiscal sustainability and economic stimulus
More prudent, reflected in the surplus of the overall
2006: -1,0
balance
2007: -1,8
1996/1997: 1,8
1997/1998: 2,2
Not Provided
Better
To increase credit, creating inflationary pressure
Limited in financial sector
Banking Sector Resiliency
Institutional
Inflow Characteristic
Flexible (Free Float)
Inflation Targeting
April 2007: USD 49,3 M
Banking Indicators:
Banking main indicators in 2007 are better than in 1997: improving capital position is sufficient to absorb any potential shock, better
credit quality, and improving profitability
•CAR: 9.2%, NPL Gross: 8.3%, ROA: 1.4%
•CAR: 21.2%, NPL Gross: 6.7%, ROA: 2.7%
Banking Management
• Inadequate risk management
•Lots of violation done in Legal Lending Limit (Batas
Maksimum Pemberian Kredit/BMPK)
•Not established
•Risk management function is a must
•There is almost no violation in Legal Lending Limit
Lack of liquidity:
•Market capitalization: Rp. 223 trillion
•Bonds trading volume: Rp. 5,3 trillion, trading frequency:
1,49
•Mutual funds NAV: Rp 4 trillion
Adequate liquidity
•Market capitalization: Rp. 1.443 trillion (May-07)
•Bonds trading volume: Rp. 815 trillion (Mar-07), trading frequency:
35.000
•Mutual funds Nav: Rp. 62 trillion (May-07)
Infrastructure Development
Bond and Equity Market
Liquidity
Established
* Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (Lembaga Penjamin
Simpana/LPS), Good Corporate Governance regulator, JPSK,API)
Capital Market Resiliency
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
7
Observasi 2
-
-
Berhimpunya kemelut “sub-prime” yang memicu kesulitan perkreditan (credit crunch),
dengan
Depresiasi USD yang tajam serta terlalu cepat, serta
Merosotnya “corporate profitability”, yang diakibatkan oleh “higher financing cost/rising
materials cost/rising energy cost”
telah memicu kemerosotan consumer confidence dan kekahawatiran (fear) akan terjadinya
resesi global
-
Per medio 2008 ini makin tampak bahwa bahaya yang ada
-
bukan RECESSION,
-
melainkan SLOWDOWN,
-
dengan kemungkinan terjadinya “significant and protracted growth slowdown”
(Worst Scenario)
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
8
‰ US ECONOMY 2008-2009
RECESSION
- negative real GDP growth for two
consecutive quarters or longer
-
SLOWDOWN
- real GDP growth is maintained albeit
at a lower rate than previously
SLOWDOWN is more linkely because of:
-
faster policy response
-
continuing capital inflow to US
US continues to be able to offer a wide array of assets, with unbeatable risk-adjusted
returns
-
-
flexibility and dynamism of US financial system
Worst Scenario:
significant and protracted growth slowdown
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
9
‰ a point to remember
- in the last 25 years the US has
suffered only 2 recessions
- both were short and mild
real
GDP
growth
short & shallow
U-curve
O
t
- both the 1990-1991 and 2001 recession lasted only 8 months
‰ businesses are nervous of the possibilities of:
real
1. long & shallow recession,
GDP
2. double-dip slowdown,
growth
O
3. a sharp recession, or
4. Japan type L-sharp “lost decade”
slowdown
real
GDP
growth
O
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
t
t
10
‰ Fear
- the world economy proves to be less resilient than now seems likely
- commodity producers/exporters still depend – even though at a
lesser degree than previously – on US demand
- continuing weak USD forced pegged currencies to appreciate vis a
vis USD
- populism and protectionism rising in the G-8
- the spread of global inflation
- uncertainty with regard to the likely extent and the cost it will impose
in the short-term
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
11
Observasi 3
-
-
-
Sebagai pengimpor Minyak Bumi dan BBM yang menghadapi potensi kenaikan
impor yang berkepanjangan di masa depan, gejolak peningkatan harga-harga
kedua komoditi tersebut menimbulkan ancaman inflasi. Hal itu akan tampak pada
baik “Headline Inflation”, “Core Inflation”, maupun “Producer price inflation”,
yang kesemuanya akan menimbulkan “liquidity risk” (downside risk)
Kebijakan menaikan harga BBM yang dilakukan secara “gebrakan” berpotensi
menimbulkan gejolak inflasioner dibandingkan dengan menggunakan cara
“market-based pricing” yang melakukan penyesuaian-penyesuaian terbatas
secara reguler. Tindakan gebrakan juga berpengaruh kuat terhadap gerakangerakan kurs Rp/USD
Di hadapan cadangan Minyak Bumi Indonesia yang terbatas; selain di dalam
jangka-panjang terancam merosot, maka “Kebijakan Energi Nasional” – termasuk
pembentukan Stok Nasional – merupakan keharusan yang mendesak
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
‰ Ancaman-ancaman baru: Inflasi Global merebak ke Indonesia
12
The Economist commodity-price index
Jul 17th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Analisa
Meskipun kenaikan index harga komoditi
mineral metal mulai menunjukkan
pelambatan, tapi pada komoditi pangan terus
melejit ke atas. Kenaikan pada pangan
bersejajaran dengan kenaikan index harga WTI
– juga Brent, yang pada akhirnya muncul di
industri petrokimia penghasil pupuk/pestisida/
insektisida. Juga: memicu permintaan akan
Biofuels, yang mengancam suplai pangan di
pasaran dunia
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
13
Sumber: International Herald Tribune, March 7, 2998
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
14
Sumber: Kompas, 3 Juli 2008
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
15
Sumber: Kompas, 6 Mei 2008
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
16
Perkembangan Inflasi dan Inflasi Inti
Perkembangan Inflasi dan Inflasi Inti, 2005-2007
20%
…
18%
Target Inflasi :
†
16%
2008 = 5 ± 1 % ;
2009 = 4,5 ± 1 %
14%
†
2010 = 4 ± 1%
12%
10%
…
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Headline y o y
Core y o y
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
Catatan: inflasi yang tinggi
mengancam tingkat
kesejahteraan “Fixed Income
Earners” (masyarakat
berpenghasilan tetap seperti
PNS/TNI/POLRI/Peg. BUMNBUMD dan karyawan/buruh
perusahaan-perusahaan kecil/
menengah)
17
Oil reserves
Jun 19th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Over 60% of the world's proven oil reserves—
those that can be recovered from known oil
fields using existing technology—are in the
Middle East, according to BP, a British oil giant.
Add in Russia and Venezuela, and the share
rises to 74%. Saudi Arabia alone accounts for
over a fifth of the total. At today's rates of
production, the world has enough oil to last for
almost 42 years, a slight improvement on last
year. But the reserves reported by Middle
Eastern countries, in particular, have remained
remarkably stable over the years. That implies
either that they are discovering new fields at
exactly the same pace as they are exploiting
their existing ones, or that they are not
providing very accurate data.
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
18
Sumber: Kompas, 15 Juni 2008
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008
™ TERIMAKASIH BANYAK UNTUK PERHATIAN ANDA
™ SELAMAT BEKERJA
Prof. DR. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti