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LAPORAN KHUSUS FUNDAMENTAL & TEKNIKAL Research Department Rabu 12 Agustus 2015 DISCLAIMER: All contents of this report have been prepared by the Research Dept. of Valbury Asia Futures and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report. Published by RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221‐25533777 Email: [email protected] | Twitter: @researchvaf | Web‐Link: www.valburyfutures.co.id/futures_research.php Research Dept. Special Report Rabu 12 Agustus 2015 Bank sentral China (PBoC) melakukan
devaluasi mata uang yuan untuk kali
pertama sejak krisis Lehman Brothers
2007/08. Devaluasi dilakukan jelang buka
pasarnya kemarin dengan menggeser naik
midpoint USDCNY 1.9% ke 6.3306 – atau
naikkan daily-fixing rate ke rekor 1.9% dari
sebelumnya, 6.2298.
Kebijakan nilai tukar yuan China terpatok terhadap
dolar AS dengan batasi (dalam trading band) gerak
harian sebesar 2% (ke atas ataupun ke bawah) dari
level fixing rate atau midpoint yang ditentukan bank
sentral (PBoC).
Langkah agresif dan mengejutkan dari bank sentral China dilakukan setelah setelah data neraca perdagangan Juli
China dirilis pesimis – ekspor dan impornya anjlok 8%an sementara surplus perdagangan merosot $43 milyar dari
$55 milyar!
Ekonomi China memang banyak dikhawatirkan belakangan ini, dengan pertumbuhan 2015 yang beresiko merosot
ke bawah zona 7% – terendah sejak 1990 – dan bursa Shanghai yang anjlok lebih dari 30% sejak Juni tengah
tahun ini! Sehingga banyak yang anggap bahwa langkah agresif bank sentral China pekan ini sebagai salah satu
upaya menstimulasi ekonominya.
Namun ekonomi dari California State University Channel Island, Sung Won Sohn, mengatakan bahwa langkah
China tersebut tidak seketika akan menjadi solusi bagi persoalan ekonominya. Menurut Sohn persoalan ekonomi
China lebih besar, karena menyangkut excess capacity industri dasar (baja, aluminium), real estate bubble,
persoalan hutang (200% dari GDP?) hingga gejolak bursa sahamnya!
Selain itu, depresiasi yuan akan menekan ekonomi negara-negara mitra dagangnya, terutama yang memiliki
kapasitas ekspor besar ke China – seperti Australia, Selandia Baru, sehingga mata uang Aussie dan Kiwi dollar pun
ikut anjlok oleh langkah China tersebut. Bahkan ekspor AS ke China di tahun 2015 berjalan ini (hingga Juni) telah
merosot sekitar 5%. Dalam skala korporasi, perusahaan-perusahaan AS yang memiliki bisnis besar ke China juga
terpengaruh – Caterpillar & General Electric.
Oleh karenanya, dengan langkah agresif yang mengejutkan untuk ekonominya tersebut, banyak yang justru
semakin khawatir terhadap kondisi Cina – kini sebagai negara dengan ekonomi terbesar ke-2 dunia.
Namun, di sisi lain, ekonom dan bahkan kementrian keuangan AS masih cenderung melihat ini sebagai salah satu
upaya China meredam tekanan ekonominya – untuk bertahan di atas pertumbuhan 7% tahun 2015 ini!
In a statement, the U.S. Treasury Department said:
"China has indicated that the changes announced today are another step in its move to a more market-determined exchange rate. We will
continue to monitor how these changes are implemented and continue to press China on the pace of its reforms."
Sementara ekonom menilai devaluasi 2% yuan China terhadap USD pada hakikatnya bukanlah suatu persoalan
besar.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said:
"Two percent is no big deal,"
"Ten percent over the next few months would be a big deal.
Oleh karenanya langkah devaluasi yuan China tersebut diproyeksikan tidak akan mempengaruhi prospek kenaikan
suku bunga AS tahun 2015 (dengan prospek terbesar di bulan September 2015). Meskipun pelemahan yuan China
LAPORAN KHUSUS FUNDAMENTAL & TEKNIKAL Page | 2 Research Dept. Special Report Rabu 12 Agustus 2015 tersebut dapat menekan ekspor AS dan beresiko menurunkan inflasi lebih rendah dari target The Fed AS 2% saat
ini.
Dengan GDP Q2 AS yang bangkit dari kontraksi Q1 serta data tenaga kerja yang membaik (unemployment rate di
level terendah 7 tahun, 5.3%), maka ekonomi AS terlihat semakin sehat dan dapat mengakomodasi kenaikan suku
bunga dari zona 0%an (sejak 2008)!
Dari pembahasan singkat ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa selama langkah-langkah moneter China ditujukan untuk
perbaikan ekonomi, maka dampak negatif kemungkinan hanya bersifat sementara – namun tetap harus
diperhatikan kondisinya.
Dan sebagai penutup berikut dilampirkan perjalanan yuan China dari tahun 1994 beserta keterangannya, yang
dikutip dari Wall Street Journal:
1. January 1994
China consolidates its competing exchange rates into a single one pegged to the U.S. dollar. Before that, China had an official rate and a rate
offered domestically at what were known as swap centers. It comes amid a slew of other reforms intended to shake up the country’s
underperforming state-owned enterprises and make the economy more market-focused.
2. July 1994
Unsatisfied with China’s reform effort, the U.S. Treasury Department labels China a currency manipulator – a move that would lend itself to
ongoing disputes over exchange rates between Washington and Beijing for the next two decades. It argues that Beijing was using the exchange
system to give its companies an unfair political advantage. Though the U.S. has moderated its stance on China’s currency as it has risen against
the dollar, the Treasury Department continues to keep that label on China.
3. December 2001
China joins the World Trade Organization. The move, coming after more than a decade of difficult and sometimes testy negotiations, lowers
trade barriers for China’s exporters and offers the promise of more foreign investment in the fast-growing economy. But it also requires China to
lower trade barriers, including some restrictions on currency exchange.
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China says it will peg the yuan to a basket of currencies rather than just to the U.S. dollar and allow the yuan to trade within a narrow band. It
simultaneously lets the currency strengthen by 2.1% against the dollar. The moves follow steady pressure from the U.S. to let the currency
strengthen. Though it lets the currency move up and down in a small way, it still leaves the yuan’s fate under the watchful eye of Beijing.
5. July 2008
China puts a stop to the yuan’s rise. With an eye on the still-developing global financial crisis, China informally re-establishes the currency’s peg
to the dollar. The move comes as money is flooding into its economy, adding to broader fears about rising inflation. The currency’s rise is also
hurting its exporters.
6. June 2010
China says it will let the yuan move again – but with caveats. The announcement follows protests by the U.S. and other G-20 countries that
China’s informal peg is putting them at a disadvantage. It also comes as China begins to again explore ways to empower its growing consumer
class – something economists say it needs to do to ensure long-term growth, as a stronger currency gives consumers more purchasing power.
But China says any moves would be gradual. It was true to its word: The next trading day, the currency strengthens by 0.4% against the dollar.
7. April 2015
The IMF changes tack on the yuan, saying the currency is fairly valued. It cites steady increases in the yuan and financial measures that show
the currency is close to its appropriate trading-range. The decision follows several steps that Beijing has taken in recent years to free up the
yuan, such as widening the range at which it can trade on a daily basis and providing more ways for the currency to move across borders.
Beijing’s ultimate goal is to get the IMF to include the yuan in its basket of reserve currencies.
8. Aug. 11, 2015
China devalues the yuan by nearly 2% amid softening economic growth and weakness in its key export sector. China’s central bank says it made
the move as part of an adjustment to how it values the yuan that will make it more sensitive to market sentiment. That echoes calls from many
economists that China needs to open up its economy to more market forces. But the timing raises questions about China’s commitment to
economic reform, and whether it is moving to liberalize its currency or simply help constituents at home.
Semoga bermanfaat dan dapat menambah informasi.
Rekhmen Abadi
Research & Analysis Dept.
Valbury Asia Futures
(Twitter: @researchvaf - @rekhmen)
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