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AIACC Asia Regional Workshop Session C2: Water Resources, Watersheds, Coasts (Bangkok, 26.3.03) Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the Archipelagoes of the South Pacific Patrick D. Nunn The University of the South Pacific Organisation of this Talk • Overview of the South Pacific archipelagoes • Water resources – vulnerability and adaptive capacity • Watersheds - vulnerability and adaptive capacity • Coasts - vulnerability and adaptive capacity • Future work/prospects Part 1: Overview of the South Pacific archipelagoes Overview of South Pacific island vulnerability • Comparatively large ratios of coast length to land area. • Comparatively remote and difficult of access. • Comparatively high dependence of people on locally available food sources. Overview of South Pacific island adaptive capacity • Large area of highly vulnerable coastal lowland. • Comparative smallness of land areas limits withinisland relocation. • Most practical environmental decisionmaking is at community level. • Lifestyle options limited. Part 2: Water resources – vulnerability and adaptive capacity Pollution Vulnerability – Increasing demands (agricultural, urban, waste, industrial, marine) Pollution Adaptive capacity – More effective environmental legislation, improved public awareness Shortage • Vulnerability – – Natural droughts – Infrastructural maintenance Shortage • Adaptive capacity – – Improved public awareness – Improved forecasting – Improved management Part 3: Watersheds – vulnerability and adaptive capacity Natural landscape change Vulnerability – Natural processes, exacerbated by changes in climate and climate extremes Natural landscape change Adaptive capacity – Many settlements can move fairly easily, hard engineering solutions often prohibitively costly. Human-induced land degradation Vulnerability – inland populations increasing and likely to increase further as coastal populations are displaced. Many inland landscapes degraded from millennia of agricultural use and burning. Human-induced land degradation Adaptive capacity – low in many island countries because island land areas are small. Crop strains more suited to upland than lowland areas, and more tolerant of warmer wetter conditions need to be developed. Part 4: Coasts – vulnerability and adaptive capacity Melanesia, 1860s? Shoreline protection Cm HONOLULU TIDE-GAUGE RECORD 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1900 1920 1940 Years AD 1960 1980 Coasts - vulnerability • • • • • Low-lying Unconsolidated Permeable Subject to storms Locations of most settlements, most infrastructure, most revenue-generating enterprises (including tourism) Consequence of 20thcentury sea-level rise: inundation and salinisation of coastal lowlands. Bruun Rule Consequence of 20th-century sealevel rise: shoreline erosion along sandy coastlines. On-site adaptation where possible Out-migration where onsite adaptation impossible Coastal vulnerability – the seawall mindset • Most government and community-level decision makers believe in remedying short-term problems rather than addressing the likely long-term effects. Coastal vulnerability – the seawall mindset • Most long-term solutions are being driven by NGOs although governments commonly pay lipservice to such sustainable solutions. Coasts – adaptive capacity Accommodation Coasts – adaptive capacity Protection Coasts – adaptive capacity Retreat inland Coasts – adaptive capacity Retreat upslope Part 5: Future work/prospects Cm 120 100 Sea-Level Rise, AD 1800-2100 1992a High (+91 cm) 80 1992a Best (+51 cm) 60 40 1992a Low (+19 cm) 20 Extrapolated level 0 1800 2000 1900 Year AD 2100 TONGATAPU ISLAND, KINGDOM OF TONGA Denselypopulated areas N 0 10 km TONGATAPU ISLAND, KINGDOM OF TONGA Land area less than 5 m above sea level Denselypopulated areas N 0 10 km Sea-level rise • Probable sea-level rise over the next 100 years will see some parts of the Pacific disappear, many others significantly reduced in habitable area. • The geography of the Indo-Pacific region will change. In atoll nations, the effects of future sea-level rise are certain to produce environmental refugees. Coral-reef death • Increased oceansurface temperatures over the next 100 years will kill many of the world’s coral reefs. Aims of AIACC Project (S)IS09 • Improve models for vulnerability and adaptation assessment in the Pacific Islands region. • Develop the capacity of Pacific Island nations to plan more effectively for future climate change. • Develop and trial methods of assessment which are transferable to other island regions.
