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Transcript
4G Here We Come!
Pulver.com Voice Over Networks Conference
Phoenix, Arizona March 23, 2001
Phillip D. Neumiller
[email protected]
Mobility Zealot at Large
3Com Corporation
3800 Golf Road
Rolling Meadows, IL
60008
Outline
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Wideband RF channels an Overview
Spectrum Absurdities
3G Absurdities
4G Opportunities
Conclusion
Wideband Channel Basics
XMTR
Noisy
Channel
RCVR
What the Hartley-Shannon equation taught us was that:
C = W log2 (1 + S/N)
Where:
C = Channel Capacity in bits/second
W = Channel bandwidth in Hz
S/N = The channel’s Signal (power in Watts) to (Noise power in
Watts) ratio
NOTE: Radio channels also exhibit various types of fading.
Specifically Rayleigh fast fading and log-normally
distributed shadow (or slow fading). Out of scope for us today.
Thin and Powerful is out…
Narrow Band Channel Capacity 300 Watts
SNR = 10 dB
300.00 Kbps
250.00 Kbps
200.00 Kbps
150.00 Kbps
100.00 Kbps
50.00 Kbps
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Channel Bandwidth in Hz
Fat and Low is the way to go
Wide Band Channel Capacity 1.5 Watts SNR = -13 dB i.e. in the
noise!
H
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H
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Channel Bandwidth in Hz
42
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37
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32
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12
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350.00 Kbps
300.00 Kbps
250.00 Kbps
200.00 Kbps
150.00 Kbps
100.00 Kbps
50.00 Kbps
0.00 Kbps
Direct Sequence Spread
Spectrum Processing Gain
Gp = Wss / R
Where
Gp = Processing Gain
Wss = Spread Spectrum Bandwidth
R = Data rate of transmitting system
Digital Channel Bandwidth
Efficiency
In a digital system the channel bandwidth efficiency is defined
by: Bandwidth Efficiency = rb / B (binary digits/second/Hz).
Which in an ideal system is just Shannon’s C
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
Wideband RF channels an Overview
Spectrum Absurdities
3G Absurdities
4G Opportunities
Conclusion
The Truth About Spectrum
•
Bandwidth offers a big bang for the buck
•
High power offers a low bang for the buck (go fry the poodle)
•
4G will move up-band into shorter millimeter wavelengths
•
Digital bandwidth efficiency increases roughly in the square
of the frequency.
The bandwidth versus power argument lies at heart of the old
CDMA versus TDMA arguments.
The spectrum management policies adopted by world
governments are outdated and based on FDMA and TDMA
technologies - especially those used for 3G CDMA auctions!
Go figure?
•
•
Spectrum Conspiracy?
Asia
National Debt
$5.7 trillion
$100B/?
FCC =
Federal
Cash Cow
Europe
U.S.GOV
NWO/Tri-laterals
Freemasons
Central Banks
1.7 T 200B
Budget Surp
NSA, FBI, CIA
CALEA
Cellular Operators
1994
G. Orwell off by 10?
Federal Reserve
Bearcat scanners
made useless!
Cellular consumers
get shafted and
double taxed!
US RF Spectrum Policy
•
Auctions of the RF spectrum in the US began in 1994. 
•
The idea was they would be used to help pay down the debt.
Last time I checked we had huge annual budget surpluses.
•
Isn’t the RF spectrum a public trust?
•
Who authorized its use as federal revenue source (i.e. pork
barrel)?
•
Will the people of the U.S. ever get the RF spectrum back?
•
Since the operator licenses are “renewed” the U.S. people are
continually taxed for its use since its cost is passed on to the
consumer by the license holders. This stinks and it is taxation
without representation.  This policy is hampering
innovation and actually helping to create the digital divide!
•
Write your congressperson today! (http://www.house.gov/writerep)
Stupid Spectrum Tricks
“The U.S. congress now requires the FCC to auction everything
(except digital television frequencies[and they are now talking
about that]) when there are competing parties, the wireless field is
slanted toward [slow moving, monopolistic, low tech, mostly
circuit switched, heavily regulated – pdn] deep-pocket players
and the subscriber model, in which consumers must pay for
services rendered.” - Bennet Z. Kobb
“Auctions give the FCC power [in an era of deregulation].”
Former FCC Commissioner Reed Hundt commenting on how
the FCC creates artificial spectrum scarcity to help jack up
prices.
Some Issues in European
RF Spectrum Allocation
The EC countries are unable to sub-contract or trade spectrum
with their current laws so hoarding is running rampant. This is
very wasteful and creates even more artificial scarcity thus
driving prices higher in a vicious cycle.
The UMTS business models bring a lot of uncertainty. Even so,
the UMTS spectrum has already been auctioned off at huge sums.
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
Wideband RF channels an Overview
Spectrum Absurdities
3G Absurdities
4G Opportunities
Conclusion
IMT-2000 Vision of 3G (The
Hype)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
High data rates: 144 kbps outdoor mobile, 384 kbps urban, 2
Mbps indoor urban isolated cell.
Sym/asymmetrical data transmission, e.g. dload can be faster.
Circuit-switched and packet switched services e.g. Voice/data.
Good voice quality (comparable to wire-line quality).
Greater capacity and improved spectrum efficiency.
Several simultaneous services to end-users and terminals, for
multimedia services, e.g. Video.
The seamless incorporation of second-generation cellular
systems, e.g. Handover to and from 2G systems.
Global, i.e. international roaming, between different IMT-2000
operational environments.
Economies of scale and an open global standard that meets the
needs of the mass market.
3G Realities
•
A recent study by Herschel Shosteck Associates noted that
operators that pay large amounts for spectrum will have to
charge end users so much that adoption of 3G will be slow.
•
Another study by Strategy Analytics agreed, predicting that,
while wireless data revenues will soar, 3G networks will
account for less than a quarter of that revenue by 2010. Socalled 3G killer apps such as multimedia won't succeed, the
second study said.
•
Pent-up demand: Now there's the rub. Even NTT DoCoMo
doesn't think there's much pent-up demand among consumers
for 3G multimedia services, so it will target its initial 3G
offering at business -- and price it accordingly.
3G Network Architecture
•
Voice Centric network architecture really circuit centric in
many ways (preserves circuit architecture)
•
Walled garden services
•
“Private” core networks attached to PSTN and glob Internet
•
Subscriber model
•
Gradual evolution of 2G and 2.5 architectures
•
An alphabet soup of competing standards.
TIA/cdma2000/UWC136, T1 (WCDMA), TTA (CDMA
I&II), ETSI (UMTS), ARIB/TTC (W-CDMA), CWTS (TDSDCDMA). Main players 3GPP2 (cdma200) and
3GPP(UMTS) and MWIF a 3G influencing body.
3G Business Model
•
IP consumers are used to the all-you-can eat pricing model of
ISPs.
•
Cellular operators are used to the minutes-of-use pricing
model.
•
Whether it's 2G or 3G, U.S. operators must find a way to
move to all-you-can-eat pricing which will be VERY difficult
given the price of spectrum foisted upon them by greedy
governments.
•
Many operators will simply run 2.5G and 2.75G technologies
in the 3G spectrum and call it 3G. 1Xtreme, HDR, EDGE are
examples.
•
The delayed delivery of 3G will shake out the innovators that
don’t have deep pockets and leave the fat cats to play.
Good things in 3G (to
keep in 4G)
Advanced Radio technologies in General and these in specific:
•
Advances in the art of applying CDMA
•
OFDM (not HYPERLAN II or 802.11a here but CDMA)
•
Smart antennas / Digital beam forming / Spatial Processing
•
Enhanced distributed MAC technologies
•
Advanced RF diversity technologies
•
Advanced DSP and channel coding and algorithms.
•
Advances in handset cost reduction, SoC technology,
manufacturing cost reduction, volume fabrication, disposable
handsets.
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
Wideband RF channels an Overview
Spectrum Absurdities
3G Absurdities
4G Opportunities
Conclusion
The 4G network that the
cell-heads dream about
•
The cellular folks are targeting 2010 for a 4G roll out, after
they have soaked us all with substandard service on 3G for 8
years and world governments have grown even fatter.
•
Target data rates are 100 Mbps+.
•
They say applications like tele-presence will be possible
(remote medical operations, remote virtual live sex, who
knows what else).
•
Author’s NOTE: I don’t buy any of this…. If it were true, it
would be done over fiber now - and its not. This is marketing
fluff.
Ultimate 4G Network
Architecture
Ad Hoc
Edge
Router
Edge
EdgeRouter
Router
Edge Router
•
No Macromobility!
•
No micromobility!
•
Mobility
implicit to IP!
4G Opportunities
As an industry (targeted for 2010???) We HAVE to do better…
•
Promote the all-you-can-eat access model.
•
Bypass the copper local loop (of course) USE 4G/Glass!
•
We must demand almost free spectrum NOT necessarily
unlicensed. Why does FREE imply un-licensed and unregulated? Has the FCC gone nuts? “Has the wireless
industry gone collectively nuts?” - Arthur Ross (Novatel)
•
4G Consumer RF devices must be really REALLY cheap, I
mean less than 10 bucks a pop/consumer device or it simply
won’t fly. This may rule out fancy stuff like OFDM or UWB.
3G may ultimately fail due to expensive handsets (among a
host of other problems like lousy network architecture).
4G Access Equipment
•
4G wireless access equipment can be slightly more expensive
than the portable consumer devices but it will still command
low margins. OFDM, UWB, enhanced LMDS/MMDS will
be more likely candidates here.
•
In-home video distribution and back-bone equipment will
initially also command higher margins and be luxury items.
They will probably be sold as high end home AV system gear
at first but as more of the home becomes unplugged it may
become the norm. Portable HDTVs won’t catch on for a long
while.
4G Techs to Watch
• OFDM = Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
• UWB = Ultra-Wide-Band RF
• Smart Antennas, Digital Beam Forming
• Edge Meshing and ad hoc Routing and Trunking of IP traffic
with Wideband RF routers
• Wide deployment of Last Mile 4G solutions
• Wide deployment of cheap personal portable wideband peerto-peer 4G devices.
• Advances in signal processing, fuels cells, ambient power.
Conclusion
•
There is no spectrum shortage the spectrum scarcity is created
by world government policies that are based on a TDMA
mind set.
•
We need regulation not auctions. We need free spectrum.
•
We need entrepreneurs not telephony conglomerates.
•
4G networks should be built by packet network providers not
telecommunications giants.
•
4G networks should be built now and compete directly with
3G – not have to wait until 2010.