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One thing for sure: The future will be unlike anything we know! Agenda 1. Today’s Technological Trends 2. Status at a glance 3. Evolution of mobile systems (pre-cellular/1G/2G/3G) 4. Paradigm Shift 5. 3G 6. 4G 7. Key takeaways TWO MAIN TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS OF TODAY: • MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS • INTERNET Interestingly, mobile subscribers are increasingly demanding Internet access while on the move and at increasingly high speeds; thereby resulting in the Convergence of the above two technological trends leading to the birth of “Mobile Broadband” (application) and 3G/4G Technologies (enablers of this application) Paradigm shift - Internet goes Mobile ….Continued Contd… Statistics at a glance: (i) Global Mobile Subscriber growth has been phenomenal from zero levels in 1992 to cross the landline’s billion by 2002 and the climb to 2.68 billion by Dec. 2006 (ii) The global mobile phone market is set to grow to 4 - 4.5 billion by 2011 fuelled by strong demand from developing economies in Asia and Latin America. (iii) 61% of the world’s mobile subscribers are in developing countries. China and India together added almost 200 million mobile subscribers to the global total in the first three months of this year. (iv) Almost 1 billion handsets sold in the year 2006. (v) 1 billion internet users by Dec. 06. (vi) 275 million broadband connections. (vii) Around 2010, data traffic likely to exceed voice traffic. All the above point to a remarkable development that is changing the world and the way be communicate! Source : www.wirelessintelligence.com Source : www.wirelessintelligence.com INDIAN SCENARIO (Sept. 07) Fixed subscribers Mobile Gross Tele density Rural Tele density - 39.58 million 209.08 million 248.66 million 21.85% around 5% Broadband subscribers Internet Users PCs Cable TV - 2.67 million 50 million 5 million 63- 64 million connection Target by 2007 250 10 500 20 Target by 2010 - million subscribers. million broadband connections million subscribers. million broadband connections 2007 has been declared as the year of Broadband. Wireless Subscribers Growth is Exponential 500 Third largest cellular market in the world Mobile Subscribers 450 460 400 Millions 400 350 330 300 240 250 200 150 149 Fixed Line Subscribers 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 India’s wireless market is growing at ~6-7 Million new subscribers every month Fastest growing telecom market in the world – 500 Million subs by 2010 5 competing GSM and 2 CDMA operators in over 8000 cities & towns Lowest Tariff compared to other countries Phenomenal Growth 25 20 22 TELE DENSITY 22 15 10 8 2007 5.11 2004 3.58 4.29 2002 2.86 2001 1999 1.94 1998 1.56 1997 1.28 1996 1995 0 1.07 2.33 2000 5 2003 1.07 Tele-Density Urban- Rural 50 50 37.99 40 21.3 30 20 10 0 4 1.3 12.2 14.3 10.4 8.2 4.8 5.8 6.9 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.3 0.7 5.1 1.5 Rural 26.2 Urban 18.31 12.86 7.04 9.08 1.7 1.74 1.86 4.9 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 Tele-Density 60 Year Total EVOLUTION OF MOBILE SYSTEMS • Pre Cellular – e.g. IMTS (Improved Mobile Telephone System) – Analog FM System used in mid 1960s. • 1G - e.g. AMPS, TACS, ETACS, NMT – Partially digital, used from early 1980s in 800 MHz-900 MHz bands. • 2G – e.g. IS 95, GSM – Fully digital, used from early 1990s, in bands 800, 900, 1700, 1800 and 1900 MHz, Voice Centric with limited data capabilities and SMS. • 3G – e.g. CDMA 2000, WCDMA – Supporting voice plus high speed packet data services. • 4G - Fixed Mobile Convergence; Seamless Mobility; very high data speeds PARADIGM SHIFT In 1G - emphasis was on technology, in particular on the evolution of network infra-structure to address the New World of mobility. In 2G - manufacturers were striving to meet consumer demand for ever smaller phones with longer battery life and advanced features. In 3G - focus will now be on content and multimedia applications. Voice telephony will be complemented by services beyond voice. In 4G - ‘service and experience’-centric Communications Transformation People to People People to Things Things to Things (Represents a significant amount of future Packet traffic.) Homes Buildings .. . Computers Intelligent Subscriber Devices Appliances Transportation Vehicles & Systems People $ Vending Machines Technology Convergence Convergence Frontier Telephony Computing Fixed Networks Wireless Network Media / Content Software Providers Hardware Providers INTERNET Musicians Authors Reporters Distribution Channels Distribution Channels Books CDs Networking Newspaper Data Networks What is the Third Generation ? Defining the Next Generation The ITU’s Vision for 3G • Future Public Land Mobile Telecommunications Service (FPLMTS) (Initiative of the ITU since 1985 to define 3rd generation of wireless) • Difficult to pronounce, hence “FPLMTS” changed to IMT-2000 • IMT-2000 IS ABBREVIATION FOR INTERNATIONAL MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATION •ITU Requirements –Small, Low Cost Pocket Terminals –Worldwide Roaming –Single System for Residential, Office, Cellular, Satellite,Environments –Data Services Delivery >Vehicular Environment: 144 Kbps >Pedestrian Environment: 384 Kbps >Indoor Environment: 2 Mbps KEY FUNCTIONS OF IMT-2000 *FULL RANGE OF SERVICES *UNIFIED ,SEAMLESS INFRASTRUCTURE *BROADBAND TRANSPORT *SELF -ADAPTIVE ,RE-PROGRAMMABLE TERMINALS IMT-2000 Terrestrial Radio Interfaces Key IMT2000 Requirements: High Speed Packet Data 144k - Vehicular 384 - Pedestrian 2Mb - Indoor Global Roaming UIM - Based on SIM IMT-2000 CDMA Direct Spread IMT-2000 CDMA Multi-Carrier IMT-2000 CDMA TDD IMT-2000 TDMA Single Carrier UMTS cdma2000 1X and 3X UTRA TDD & TD-SCDMA) UWC-136/ EDGE IMT-2000 FDMA/ TDMA DECT ITU-R Assembly has approved WiMAX as part of the IMT-2000 family of standards ahead of the ITU WRC 07 in Geneva. 3G Partnership Projects • Two partnership projects have been established to accelerate all aspects of 3G standardization 3rd Generation Partnership Project TTC TTC 3GPP for evolved GSM & UTRA 3GPP2 for evolved ANSI-41 & cdma2000 • Main thrust of each project is to find commonality for their respective standards across regions • Global harmonization could enable: –lower overall costs –faster product cycles –faster operator implementation of 3G services 4G As the first implementations of 3G are beginning to roll out, the shortcomings of 3G networks are already being discussed and the scientists/researchers have begun to talk of 4G (also referred to as ‘IMT-Advanced’ by ITU) which, at this initial stages, implies “improvement and the fixing of lingering 3G problems, apart from increasing data speeds beyond 2 Mbps”. Systems beyond IMT-2000 are commonly referred to as the Fourth Generation Networks (4G) or Beyond 3G (B3G) or IMT Advanced. 4G Vision There will not be a single network branded as 4G in the same way that there is 2G GSM or 3G UTRAN. Instead, 4G will be a collection of networks and a wide variety of smart devices communicating with each other. The 4G technology will provide for a collection of different kinds of multiple access networks in which a user can gain access to a portal on the Internet (or whatever the entity) by the most appropriate means. The user will not have to know which network provides the service. The smart device can analyze its environment and choose the best available service provider and technology (service discovery). Contd…. Contd….. Both the network entities and the smart devices will be able to configure themselves so that they can adapt to new requirements. The emergence of fourth generation of mobile services will allow Users to connect to different networks depending on their location. For example, a handset could connect a wireless local area network (WLAN) when inside a building, switch to a 3G mast when outside, And connect to a standard network in areas with no 3G coverage. 4G is supposed to be an all IP Network with higher bit rates, enhanced Multimedia services, smooth streaming videos, worldwide Access/roaming capability, Intelligent software as driven technique. OFDM-UWB (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing-Ultra Wide Band) as representative standard, FDMA, TDMA, CDMA as Multi access techniques, low cost and tight security network. 4G INITIATIVES 1. ITU (i) (ii) ITU-R ITU-T - 2. IEEE (i) 802.15.3a (ii) 802.11n (iii) 802.16.2004/802.16e (iv) 802.20 WP8F of SG8 SG19 - Ultra Wide Band (UWB) short range; throughput 480 Mbps. - MIMO (Multiple Input, Multiple Output) WLAN; medium range; throughput 100 mbps - WiMAX FIXED / MOBILE - Data rates upto 4Mbps; High mobility 3. 4GMF (Fourth Generation Mobile Forum) 4. WWRF (Wireless World Research Forum) 5. NTT DoCoMo (MAGIC … Mobile multimedia; Anytime, anywhere, anyone; Global mobility support; Integrated wireless solution; and Customised personal service. 6. Mobile IT Forum (mITF), Japan 7. Wireless World Initiative New Radio (WINNER) contd… Indian Initiative • The Centre of Excellence in Wireless Technology (CEWiT) India, an autonomous institution, has been set up under a public-private initiative with a view to spearhead research within the country in the area of 4G technology. • Broadband Wireless Consortium of India (BWCI), is a strategic initiative of CEWIT with the objective of providing a common national forum for all stakeholders in the broadband wireless market in India with a view to co-ordinate activities within India and also to ensure adequate representation of the needs of the Indian broadband wireless market in global standard forums. Systems beyond IMT-2000 will encompass the capabilities of previous systems Mobility New capabilities of systems beyond IMT-2000 New mobile access High Enhanced Dashed line indicates that the exact data rates associated with IMT-2000 systems beyond IMT-2000 are not yet determined Enhancement New nomadic/local area wireless access Low 1 10 Peak useful data rate (Mbit/s) Denotes interconnection between systems via networks, which allows flexible use in any environment without making users aware of constituent systems Nomadic/local area access systems Digital broadcast systems 100 1 000 Systems deployment* New elements to offer new capabilities of systems beyond IMT-2000 Spectrum implementation Vision definition Other radio systems Requirements Standards definition development Standards enhancement Evolution/integration with other radio systems Systems deployment IMT-2000 and future development Spectrum implementation Enhancement and related development of standards 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 The sloped dotted lines indicate that the exact starting point of the particular subject can not yet be fixed. : Possible spectrum identification at WRC-07 * : Possible wide deployment around the year 2015 in some countries WHY 4G ? Although 3G technologies deliver significantly higher bit rates than 2G technologies and contribute to ARPU growth for wireless data services, there is still more opportunity for wireless operators to capitalize on the ever-increasing demand for ‘wireless broadband’, even lower latency and multi-megabit throughput. Consequently, there is an expanding revenue opportunity from a growing pool of underserved consumers that can only be satisfied with next generation of mobile networks. Minimum Performance Requirements • • • Increased spectral efficiency and capacity — (expected to deliver three to five times greater capacity than the most advanced current 3G networks) Lower cost per bit — (Increased spectral efficiency combined with the operational benefits of an all-IP network will reduce the cost per bit compared to 3G solutions). Improved quality of experience (QoE) — (Reduction in latency time, which will enhance the behavior of time-sensitive applications, such as VoIP, thus improving the user experience) Enabling technologies • Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) -OFDM is a special case of multi-carrier transmission, where a single data stream is transmitted over a number of lower rate sub-carriers. • Multiple Input/Multiple Output (MIMO) increases peak throughput by transmitting and receiving multiple streams of information within the same spectrum. Mobile Wireless Technology Evolution and Convergence 2005 GSM WCDMA 2006 3G Technology Evolution 2007-2009 HSDPA HSUPA LTE 3G Technology Evolution CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO EV-DO Rev A 2010+ EV-DO Rev B, C 4G (IMT-Advanced) likely OFDMA based 3G Technology Evolution Wi-Fi OFDM 802.16e OFDMA 802.16e MIMO-OFDMA Broadband Wireless Technology Evolution Source: Rysavvy Research Existing Scenario Separate Service Networks Data Networks PSTN/ISDN PLMN Services Separate Access, Transport & Switching Networks 37 NGN Scenario Services Managed IP/MPLS Transport Access Independence of services from underlying transport technologies Principles of Fixed Mobile Convergence PSTN HSS- Home Subscriber Server APP- Application (server) IMS based FMC solution RAN- Radio Access Network Fixed-Line Network PSTN (TDM) Softswitch FMC 4G 1G FDMA 2G TDMA /CDMA IS-95 Mobile Network Figure1: Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) 3G WCDMA CDMA2000 IMS Key takeaways - Mobile has become the dominant means for accessing communications particularly in developing countries. (The “1 billion” figure of global mobile subscriber base was reached (in 2002)some 23 years after NTT DoCoMo launched the first Cellular System in 1979, whereas the next 500 million mark was reached (in 2004) –just after 2 years and the “2 billion” figure was reached in 2005). -Mobile networks are fast moving towards “All IP” networks. -There is a shift in the wireless business model from a technology and device driven world to a service-and experience-centred world. -The debate of wired Vs wireless will end in the NGN era through Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC). - FMC will combine the convenience, freedom of movement and personalised services of the wireless world with the high quality and speed of fixed communication. For further details, You may contact Deepa Tyagi at E-mail address: [email protected] Tel. :91-11-2 3329333 Fax :91-11-2 3730045 43