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2 Introduction: The Partnership for Lebanon Broadband Strategy 3 The commitment of the Partnership for Lebanon 5 companies, 5 workstreams, over 15 projects www.partnershipforlebanon.org 4 The Partnership Vision for Lebanon With the most advanced communications infrastructure of the Middle-East, Lebanon could transform • Education and knowledge into innovation • Ingenuity and entrepreneurship into sustainable growth and wealth • Its worldwide Diaspora into a connected global leading community • Individualism and tradition into creative cultural diversity and social cohesion 5 OECD, UN, World Bank, WEF all recognize the power of broadband connectivity to accelerate economic growth and social inclusion For social inclusion To boost productivity and economic growth For government efficiency and effectiveness • • • Education for all Healthcare for all Universal Connectivity • • • • Increase competitiveness Attract private investment Generate Innovation Reduce transaction costs • Better Services for citizens and businesses Cost-savings Security, safety and transparency • • 6 Connectivity is a need not a luxury a)Insignificant costs compared to other infrastructures b)For Lebanon the most powerful lever to leapfrog 7 Table extracted from the 2006 European Innovation Scoreboard De Ne nm ar th k e Sw rl an d i tz er s la nd Ko r No ea rw a Ic y ela n Fi d nl a Sw nd ed e Ca n na d Un Be a i te lg iu d m Ki ng do Au m st ra li a F Lu ra n xe ce Un mbo ur i te g d St at es Ja G pan er m an Au y st ria Ne Sp w a Ze in al an d Ita l Ire y lan Cz d P e c ortu h g Re a l pu Hu bli c ng ar y Po la n Sl ov Gre d ak ec Re e pu b Tu lic rk e M y ex ic o 8 Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology (Source OECD, June 2007) 35 OECD Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology, June 2007 30 DSL Cable Fibre/LAN Other 25 20 15 OECD average 10 5 0 Source: OECD Source: OECD 9 Government Affairs CRL* Team Robert Pepper Director, Global Policy Corporate Affairs George Akiki Program Director, Partnership 4 Leb Salam Yamout Program Manager, Partnership 4 Leb IBSG Peter Gruetter Distinguished Fellow Nicola Villa Director, Public Sector Diogo Vasconcelos Distinguished Fellow Chris Reberger Manager, Solutions Center Consulting Engineering Monique Morrow Distinguished Engineer Russ Gyurek Consulting Engineer Others Hosein Badran Robert Grossman (IBSG) Paolo Campoli (Business Dev) Selim Edde (BDM) Mawaheb Kabbara (SE Mgr) Michael Truskowski (CE) * Connected Republic of Lebanon 10 TRA 11 Regulatory and Market Framework 12 Roles for Public and Private Sectors in Technology Adoption % Adoption 100% } } 80% 60% 40% Closing the Gaps: 20% Policies for Digital Inclusion 0% Time Government as Catalyst: • Market stimulation • Pre-commercial R&D Demand Supply 13 Connectivity in Lebanon today • Weak infrastructure No IP NGN backbone • Low speed 256 KBPS (recently introduced DSL maximum speed 2 Mbps) • International Bandwidth Limited • Coverage Limited • Expensive service $50 (urban, DSL) $200 - $400 (rural, leased) Sound regulatory framework and private investment are key to put Lebanon on the road towards pervasive broadband connectivity 14 Role for TRA • Telecom Regulatory Authority (TRA) – – – – Establish regulatory framework Issue licenses Monitor, investigate, enforce Alternative dispute resolution (ADR) 15 Role of Council of Ministers Council of Ministers decisions to support the regulatory and market framework for attracting investment in sustainable broadband infrastructure and fast deployment in urban areas: 1. Public ownership and access to ducts for licensed service providers 2. Unbundling of the local copper loop 3. Ducts in new buildings 16 Regulatory-Market Framework • Developed by Cisco’s “Connected Republic of Lebanon” team in consultation with the TRA • Based upon technical, market and regulatory analysis • Aims at attracting investment in sustainable broadband infrastructure for Lebanon in 2008 • Many ways to reach the goal. Philosophy of regulation: – – – – simple transparent / explicit rely on the market wherever possible narrowly targeted regulation 17 New Broadband Licenses (1) • Core Type License – – – – – Market could support up to three Auction if competing applications Coverage requirements / Nationwide service with 8 nodes Option to construct international gateway High level technical requirements for speed, latency, jitter, etc based on international standards. – 15 year license with presumption of renewal 18 New Broadband Licenses (2) • Metro/Access Type License – – – – – – – – Issued upon application No limitation on number No build out requirement for new entrants 10 year license with presumption of renewal Technology neutral Use or lose requirement for spectrum license No restrictions on the applications that can be run on the network Allows two-way satellite broadband directly to subscribers 19 Interconnection Requirements • Interconnection for Core licenses – New core licensees have access to international gateway at fair, reasonable rates – Allowed to interconnect at international gateway, national nodes, IXPs – Alternative dispute resolution at TRA if complaint • Interconnection for Metro/Access licenses – Metro/access license holders able to interconnect with Core networks on commercial basis – Interconnection of last resort with Ogero (Liban Telecom) metro/access network – Alternative dispute resolution at TRA if complaint 20 Additional Requirements • New fiber network investment – No initial local loop unbundling for metro/access licensees who deploy new fiber – Assessment to unbundle after 10 years • Legacy copper local network – Unbundled on fair and reasonable terms and conditions – TRA resolves complaints with ADR • “Duct Management Desk” – – – – Guarantee equal access to ducts Expedite and coordinate new duct construction Establish and enforce duct standards Maintenance and access of existing ducts 21 Network Architecture 22 Overall Network Architecture • Delivers a scalable hierarchical network • Network Components: IGW/IXC, Core, metro, access – Core: IPNG cores – Metro: Metro Ethernet connections – Access: xDSL, FTTx, Wi-Max, 3G/4G, Satellite 23 Architecture Details: Core Core Details • IP/NG core network • Each core will have a peering point to IXC • Eight core nodes connected via Redundant/protected 10GE links • High availability. Power back-up, redundant equipment architecture, ability to support variety of QoS parameters • Scalable architecture for much higher data rates per growth 24 Network Architecture: Core High Level Core Router Layout IP/MPLS Provider Routers Only BEI 1 and BEI-2 fully meshed for redundancy Internet Gateways at BEI-1 and BEI-2 also n x 10-40 Gbps BEI-1 and 2 Core Aggregation Capability Tr ip oli 10 Gbps WAN Capabilty BEI-2 Jou nie h Beirut BEI-1 Zahle Sa ida Na bat iyeh 8 cities Tyre Urban areas / Beirut Mount Lebanon should be able to connect businesses located here with 100MB PS on a per need basis Metro / High density po pulation / Intense Economic Activity 25 Architecture Details: Metro/Access • Metro: Includes Business Parks & High Density population areas • Combination of rings and wireless coverage around major cities • IP Carrier class network • Meet minimum BB data rate (DS and US) • Suggested requirements: – No service manipulation – QoS to support Video – Availability (limited downtime) • Quad-play service capable 26 DSL Assumptions for metro/access 3Km 300m CO Down: 25 – 50 Mb/s Up: 1 – 6 Mb/s Down: 1 – 8 Mb/s Up: 0.384 – 1 Mb/s Down: < 1.5 Mb/s Up: 0.122 - 0.384 Mb/s 5Km 27 Not All Bits Are Created Equal “Speed” and Latency High Telepresence Voice Gaming (LD) Gaming (HD) Sensitive to Latency Streaming Audio Streaming Video HD-IPTV Download Video Low Email Low Bandwidth High 28 Architecture: What to Expect In Three Years (Conservative): • 3 competitive core networks. • Metro business parks and MDUs in dense populated regions to have a combination of DSL and Wi-Max coverage. Expect 40% availability of BB • Fiber rings around the eight large metro areas • Rural and less populated areas beginning to have DSL availability, potential for Wi-Max and 3G/4G. Expect 15% availability • Demand increasing, demand for Internet devices • SP plans to start FTTH 29 Architecture: What to Expect In Three Years (Optimistic): • • • • • • • • 3 competitive core networks Multiple Metro Fiber rings in major cities In-band Video options, SDV, PPV, etc Metro business parks are fibered: access to 100Mbps/1GE Downtown coverage is upwards of 50% Metro areas have Wi-Max blast The major Rural CO’s equiped with DSL capability SP deploying FTTH to “Greenfield” developments 30 Business Case Broadband business case • Positioning the business case – Private sector outcomes without public support – Seen as a first step to connected Lebanon and precludes no developmental option – Delivers NGN-IP backbones, robust connections – Conservative bias in market forecast and player revenues – Macro economic model – New entrant is an integrated player competing nationally against 2 others – Application revenue excluded 31 Broadband business case • Total market and new entrant characteristics – With economic growth of 2.5% over next 10 years – Leads to a per capita GDP of ~$US 9,500 – Competitive stimulus to the market • 200,000 households subscribing in 2018. $US 40 month flat as speed increases (regression, check against HH income distribution) • 16,000 leased lines in 2018. Prices decreasing 15% a year, going to UK levels, normalised on GDP. – Numerous assumptions associated with churn, share of gross adds, long term equilibriums of 1/3 in core and access, take up curves, market sizing 32 33 Network Model Cost Assumptions – Architecture is based on current NG available equipment (competitive) – Costs are discounted to represent SP buying power – Estimate does not include “Services” (video servers, etc) – “Content” costs are not included – Model includes upgrades and scalability to equipment – Model includes maintenance expenses – Copper lease costs are included (Access) – Network exchange agreements are not included: handoff, Access to Metro agreements 34 Broadband business case • Consider one vertically integrated player – – – – – 10 year cumulative CAPEX/OPEX ~ $US 360 million 10 year cumulative HH revenue ~ $US 342 million 10 year cumulative Business revenue ~$US 90 million NPV of ~ 6 million @ 15% (No TV) Peak debt $US 52 million Summary $US m $US m $US $US $US $US m m m m $US m $US m Total Consumer/SMB broadband Enterprise Total 2008 5.6 0.0 5.6 2009 18.0 1.2 19.2 2010 26.9 6.0 32.8 2011 31.3 9.5 40.8 2018 39.1 7.2 46.3 Access Metro/Aggregation Core/Backbone Global interconnect Network Total 2.5 34.7 3.7 0.8 1.2 42.9 5.3 25.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 33.2 7.4 25.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 34.0 7.1 22.9 0.0 0.8 0.3 31.1 9.4 16.1 0.0 3.1 0.2 28.9 -37.3 -13.9 -1.2 9.7 17.4 35 36 Q&A