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StatCom at Iowa State Luke Fostvedt Iowa State University Department of Statistics JSM 2009 - Session 404 08-05-09 Outline StatCom structure at Iowa State Some Clients and Projects Post-Election Audits Benefits Conclusions StatCom Hierarchy Student Involvement Teams meet as necessary for the projects ◦ Meetings work around academic schedules Every member of the team is involved ◦ Regardless of experience Flexible work load Volunteer Center of Story County First Ever Client for Iowa State StatCom About to Begin a new Project with VCSC Began by developing a satisfaction survey for organizations affected by VCSC Next project is to develop a satisfaction survey for the individual volunteers within each project Post-Election Audits Iowan’s for Voter Integrity Explore Various Methodologies Provides Exposure to Policy Making ◦ Transparency of the audit process ◦ Policy makers and election officials don’t often agree with the statisticians (too much red tape) Iowa Legislation Proposed legislation similar to Minnesota ◦ Avoids Statistics and Computers at every step ◦ Proposed Procedure Does not Limit Risk If a large margins of victory ◦ the method audits too many precincts (high cost) If a small margin of victory ◦ the risk can be large (wrong candidate wins) Risk Limiting audits Method Based on Power and Margin of Victory ◦ Typically Power is 99% (pre-specified) ◦ Power must be high enough for voters to be confident with the outcome Efficiency ◦ Samples as few precincts as possible when outcome was correct ◦ 99% is the probability of detecting a miscount if one exists Simulations Ran Simulations where the wrong candidate won Tiered Method (Proposed in Iowa Legislation) ◦ Risk increases as Margin of Victory decreases 0.5% margin of victory had roughly 80% power Risk Limiting Method ◦ Simulations always found at least one miscount ◦ Miscounts were simulated both systematically and randomly Current and Future Objectives Draft a White Paper describing our findings and details a procedure for a post-election audit Perform a Pilot Audit during the 2010 elections in Iowa Continue to consult with the legislators Benefits Organizations / Community ◦ Allows them to enjoy the benefits of the scientific process ◦ Decisions made from StatCom analyses directly benefit the community ◦ The Organizations enjoy working with students Benefits Students ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Gain valuable consulting experience Get exposure to statistical literature Improve communication skills with non-statisticians Get to work in a collaborative environment Community Service Hours Conclusion StatCom can be an integral part of every Statistics Program Your Community Deserves it!