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AP STATISTICS
Beechwood High School, 2016-17
Ms. Stacey Brand
[email protected]
(859) 331-1220 ext. 6012, room 12
Planning Period: 2nd hour (9:15am – 10:15am)
Course Description:
This course is designed to address the guidelines provided by the College Board for the Advanced
Placement Statistics examination (Thursday, May 11, 2017). Content includes four broad conceptual
themes: exploring data by describing patterns and departures from patterns, sampling and
experimentation through planning and conducting a study, anticipating patterns by exploring random
phenomena using probability and simulation, and statistical inference through estimating population
parameters and testing hypotheses. The TI-84 graphing calculator will be used exclusively and
extensively.
Course Content:
The topics for AP Statistics are divided into four major themes: exploratory analysis (20–30% of the
exam), planning and conducting a study (10–15% of the exam), probability (20–30% of the exam), and
statistical inference
(30–40% of the exam).
I. Exploratory analysis of data makes use of graphical and numerical techniques
to study
patterns and departures from patterns. In examining distributions of data, students should be able
to detect important characteristics, such as shape, location, variability and unusual values. From
careful observations of patterns in data, students can generate conjectures about relationships among
variables. The notion of how one variable may be associated with another permeates almost all of
statistics, from simple comparisons of proportions through linear regression. The difference between
association and causation must accompany this conceptual development throughout.
II. Data must be collected according to a well-developed plan if valid information
is to be
obtained. If data are to be collected to provide an answer to a question of interest, a careful plan
must be developed. Both the type of analysis that is appropriate and the nature of conclusions that can
be drawn from that analysis depend in a critical way on how the data was collected. Collecting data in a
reasonable way, through either sampling or experimentation, is an essential step in the data analysis
process.
III. Probability is the tool used for anticipating what the distribution of data should look
like under a given model. Random phenomena are not haphazard: they display an order that
emerges only in the long run and is described by a distribution. The mathematical description of
variation is central to statistics. The probability required for statistical inference is not primarily
axiomatic or combinatorial but is oriented toward using probability distributions to describe data.
IV. Statistical inference guides the selection of appropriate models. Models and data interact
in statistical work: models are used to draw conclusions from data, while the data are allowed to
criticize and even falsify the model through inferential and diagnostic methods. Inference from data
can be thought of as the process of selecting a reasonable model, including a statement in probability
language, of how confident one can be about the selection.
Course Outline:
First Quarter:
I. Exploratory Analysis (20-30% of AP exam)
Students will engage in an exploratory analysis of data and make use of graphs numerical calculations
to study patterns and/or departures from patterns. Graphing calculators (TI-84), tables and various
computer software applications (Fathom, MINITAB, EXCEL) will be used to enhance the instruction and
development of a student’s understanding of statistical processes and graphical representations of
data.
A. Constructing and interpreting graphical displays of distributions of univariate data (dotplot,
stemplot, histogram, cumulative frequency plots)
1. Center and spread
2. Clusters and gaps
3. Outliers and other unusual features
4. Shape
B. Summarizing distributions of univariate data.
1. Measuring center: median and mean
2. Measuring spread: range, interquartile range, standard deviation
3. Measuring position: quartiles, percentiles, standardized scores (z-scores)
4. Using boxplots
5. The effect of changing units on summary measures
C. Comparing distributions of univariate data (dotplots, back-to-back stemplots, parallel boxplots)
1. Comparing center and spread: within group, between group variation
2. Comparing clusters and gaps
3. Comparing outliers and other unusual features
4. Comparing shapes
D. Exploring Bivariate Data
1. Analyzing patterns in scatterplots
2. Correlation and linearity
3. Least-square regression line
4. Residual Plots, outliers and influential points
5. Transformations to achieve linearity: logarithmic and power transformations
E. Exploring Categorical Data
1. Frequency tables and bar charts
2. Marginal and joint frequencies for two-way tables
3. Conditional relative frequencies and association
4. Comparing distributions using bar charts
Second Quarter:
II. Planning and conducting a study (10-15% of AP exam)
Students will create a well-developed plan to collect valid data in order to answer a question of
interest.
A. Overview of methods of data collection
1. Census
2. Sample survey
3. Experiment
4. Observational Study
B. Planning and conducting surveys
1. Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted survey
2. Populations, samples and random selection
3. Sources of bias in sampling and surveys
4. Sampling methods, including simple random sampling, stratified random sampling and
cluster sampling
C. Planning and conducting experiments
1. Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted experiment
2. Treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignments, and replication
3. Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding
4. Completely randomized design
5. Randomized block design, including matched pairs design
6. Generalizability of results and types of conclusions that can be drawn from
observational studies, experiments, and surveys
III. Probability (20-30% of AP exam)
Students will use the tool of probability to anticipate what the distribution of data should look like
under a given model.
A. Interpreting probability, including long-run relative frequency interpretation “Law of Large
Numbers” concept
B. Addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability and independence
C. Discrete random variables and their probability distributions, including binomial and geometric
D. Simulation of random behavior and probability distributions
E. Mean (expected value) and standard deviation of a random variable, and linear transformation
of a random variable
F. Combining independent random variables
1. Notion of independence versus dependence
2. Mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent random
variables
G. The Normal distribution
1. Properties of the Normal distribution
2. Using tables of the Normal distribution
3. The Normal distribution as a model for measurements
H. Sampling distributions
1. Sampling distribution of a sample proportion
2. Sampling distribution of a sample mean
3. Central Limit Theorem
4. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample proportions
5. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample means
6. Simulation of sampling distributions
7. t-distribution
8. Chi-square distribution
Third/Fourth Quarters:
IV. Statistical Inference (30-40% of AP exam)
Students will select a reasonable model in order to draw a conclusion from data. Students will use
graphing calculators and statistical software to compare and interpret data in order to draw
conclusions about the world around them.
A.
Estimation
1. Estimating population parameters and margins of error
2. Properties of point estimators, including unbiasedness and variability
3. Logic of confidence intervals, meaning of confidence level and confidence intervals,
and properties of confidence intervals
B.
4. Large sample confidence interval for a proportion
5. Large sample confidence interval for a difference between two proportions
6. Confidence interval for a mean
7. Confidence interval for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired)
8. Confidence interval for the slope of a least-squares regression line
Tests of significance
1. Logic of significance testing
2. Null and alternative hypotheses
3. P-values
4. One- and two-sided tests
5. Concepts of Type I and Type II errors
6. Concept of power
7. Large sample test for a proportion
8. Large sample test for a difference between two proportions
9. Test for a mean
10. Test for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired)
11. Chi-square test for goodness of fit, homogeneity or proportions, and independence
(one- and two-way tables)
12. Test for the slope of a least-squares regression line
**The instructor reserves the right to make modifications to the course outline as needed.
Primary Text:
Bock, David E., Velleman, Paul F., DeVeaux, Richard D., Stats: Modeling the World (3rd edition). Boston,
MA: Addison Wesley, 2010.
Additional Resources:
Bluman, Allan G., Elementary Statistics: A Step by Step Approach (5th edition). New York, NY: McGrawHill Companies, Inc., 2004.
Sternstein, Martin. AP Statistics. Hauppauge, NY: Barron's Educational Series, 2012. Print.
Yates, Daniel S., Moore, David S., Starnes, Daren S., The Practice of Statistics. New York, NY: W.H.
Freeman, 2003.
Required Supplies:
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Textbook
Pencil. All work (homework, quizzes and tests) must be completed in pencil. Any work
completed in pen will not be accepted and will result in a zero for the assignment. No
exceptions.
1 ½ - 2” Binder with 5 dividers
Notebook Paper
Graphing Calculator. A TI-84 calculator is required. We will use the calculators extensively and
you must have it with you every day.
Responsibilities/Expectations:
Overall, it is the responsibility of both the teacher and student to be prepared, respectful, involved,
dependable, and ethical. Your active participation is necessary to the success of this class. Each day I
ask you to take “PRIDE” in your work, behavior and attitude and we will have a very successful year.
Please refer to the Beechwood High School Student/Parent and Code of Conduct Handbook for
additional information on the school code of conduct and academic course of studies. I will strictly
enforce all school policies and will hold you accountable for any breech of your responsibilities.
Assignments/Grading Policy:
Grade Distribution:
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Tests and Projects
Quizzes and Daily Assignments
50% of overall grade
50% of overall grade
The Beechwood High School grading scale is as follows:
A
B
C
D
F
92-100
84 – 91
76 – 83
70 – 75
below 70
Daily Assignments:
You will have an assignment of some kind most every day. Homework will be checked regularly and
either graded for completion or accuracy (or both). Regardless of the manner in which the work is
collected and/or graded, your effort on the homework assignments will determine your success in this
class and ultimately on the AP Statistics Exam. Daily practice is the key.
As a rule, I do not give extra credit assignments, regardless of the situation. Your best course of action
is to complete assignments on time and to the best of your ability, therefore not needing “extra credit.”
Each week, the daily assignments will be posted in the classroom and published in a unit calendar,
distributed at the start of each unit of study. Remember, it is your responsibility to keep track of your
assignments and any important due dates.
Tests/Quizzes:
You will have a test at the conclusion of each chapter or unit whereas quizzes will be more frequent
and may be announced. Cumulative vocabulary/calculator quizzes will be given to assess the mastery
of the language of statistics and the use of your calculator. ALWAYS BE PREPARED. All tests will be
formatted to model the AP Statistics Exam (multiple-choice and free response questions) and will be
cumulative. No partial credit will be given for the multiple-choice questions. On the other hand, you
may earn partial credit on free response questions for valid work and explanation with few errors.
Projects:
Special projects will be assigned throughout the course so that students can demonstrate their
understanding of the topics being discussed. Each project will require the students to effectively
communicate experimental methods, results and interpretations using the appropriate vocabulary of
statistics. Such projects include: designing surveys and experiments, gathering data, analyzing data
numerically and graphically, and applying inferential statistics to draw conclusions for a population.
The chapter projects will be graded using an AP grading rubric. The maximum score is a 4 (as in the
free response portion AP Statistics Exam) and the minimum score is a 0. Half-points are awarded as
necessary. The project grades are recorded out of 40 points…so you should multiply your score by 10 to
see what points you have earned on each project.
Some projects denoting the chapter and section of the primary text and topics of interest to the
investigation are listed on the next page:
Race and the Death Penalty (3-15)
Dollars for Students (4-17)
Marginal/Conditional Distributions
Graphical Display of Categorical Data
Visual/Verbal Displays of Data
Written Analysis of Data
SUV Insurance (5-19)
Normal Models (6-25)
Comparing Summary Statistics/Graphical
Displays
Drawing Conclusions from Data
Data and Analysis
Use of the Normal Model
Descriptive Data
Evaluating the Shape and Distribution
Drawing Conclusions from Data
Smoking (8-13)
Olympic Long Jump (9-9)
Find Associations between Two Variables
Linear Displays/Linear Regression
Evaluating Strength/Appropriateness of Models
Using Models to Predict Future Values
Linear Models/Linear Regression
Residuals, Trends and Slope
Using Models to Predict Future Values
Alligators (10-9)
ESP (11-13)
Linear Models/Improved Models
Residuals, Trends and Slope
Evaluating Appropriateness of Models
Simulating a Study
Backhoes & Forklifts (13-15)
Simulated Coins (18-13)
Designing & Conducting an Experiment
Simulations & Histograms
Comparing Graphical Displays of Data
Randomness
Life After High School? (21-11)
Sample Size and Confidence Interval
Hypothesis Test
Evaluating Accuracy of Test/Errors on Test
Make-up Work:
Homework: It is your responsibility to get your assignment when you are absent. I will save a copy of
any worksheet and/or handout for you if you are absent. You can find those papers in the file folder
hanging on the front cabinet (filed under your class period). You will be awarded one day for each day
of an excused absence in order to make up any work missed. Otherwise, late work will not be accepted.
Tests/Quizzes: Make-up tests are given before or after school at the teacher’s discretion. Make-up
quizzes can be completed at various times: before or after school, during class (if time allows), or at
another pre-determined time. All make-up tests and quizzes must be completed within the nine-week
grading period in which the original test or quiz was given. Otherwise, the grade will be recorded as a
zero.
Additional Questions/Concerns?
If you need any additional help or have questions about anything throughout the year, please e-mail me
or see me during my planning period (2nd period), before or after school. For additional help with
homework or test preparation, please check with me to see when I may be available before or after
school. I’m looking forward to a wonderful year! ~Ms. Brand